原文标题： Fed's James Bullard pushes for faster rate hikes, sees ‘good shot’ at beating inflation 原文连结：https://cnb.cx/41gpg98 发布时间：WED, FEB 22 20237:59 AM EST 记者署名：Jeff Cox 原文内容： -St. Louis Fed President James Bullard told CNBC that a more aggressive interest rate hike now would give the FOMC a better chance to bring down inflation. -The central bank official also said he thinks “we have a good shot at beating inflation in 2023” without creating a recession. -Bullard advocates for a top rate of nearly 5.4%, about in line with market pricing. St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard expressed confidence that the central bank can beat inflation and advocated Wednesday for stepping up the pace in the battle. Bullard told CNBC that a more aggressive interest rate hike now would give the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee a better chance to bring down inflation that, while falling some off the precarious levels of 2022, is still high. “It has become popular to say, ‘Let’s slow down and feel our way to where we need to be.’ We still haven’t gotten to the point where the committee put the so-called terminal rate,” he said during a live “Squawk Box” interview. “Get to that level and then feel your way around and see what you need to do. You’ll know when you’re there when the next move could be up or down.” Those comments come a week after Bullard and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester both said they were pushing for a half-percentage point rate hike at the last meeting, rather than the quarter-point move the FOMC ultimately approved. They said they would continue to favor a more aggressive move at the March meeting. Markets have been volatile in the wake of those remarks as well as a batch of inflation data that came in higher than expected, stoking fears that the Fed has more work to do to bring down prices. But Bullard said the more aggressive move would be part of a strategy that he thinks ultimately will be successful. “If inflation continues to come down, I think we’ll be fine,” he said. “ Our risk now is inflation doesn’t come down and reaccelerates, and then what do you do? We are going to have to react, and if inflation doesn’t start to come down, you know, you risk this replay of the 1970s ... and you don’t want to get into that. Let’s be sharp now, let’s get inflation under control in 2023.” Despite the tougher talk and hot inflation data, markets still largely expect the Fed to go with the quarter-point move next month, according to CME Group data. Futures trading indicates, however, that the benchmark short-term borrowing rate will top out at a “terminal” level of 5.36% this summer, higher than the 5.1% estimate committee members made in December but about in line with Bullard’s projection of a 5.375% rate. Investors fear that higher rates could tip the economy into recession. Major averages saw their biggest sell-off of the year Tuesday, erasing all the gains the Dow Jones Industrial Average had made in 2023. But Bullard said he thinks “we have a good shot at beating inflation in 2023” without creating a recession. “You’ve got China coming on board. You’ve got a stronger Europe than we thought. It kind of seems like the U.S. economy might be more resilient than markets thought, let’s say six or eight weeks ago,” he said. Investors will get another look inside the Fed’s thinking later Wednesday when the FOMC releases the minutes from the Jan. 31-Feb. 1 meeting at 2 p.m. ET. -美国联邦储备银行圣路易斯分行行长詹姆斯·布拉德告诉CNBC，现在更积极地加息将为联 邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)带来更好的机会来降低通货膨胀率。 -这位央行官员还表示，他认为“我们有很好的机会在2023年击败通货膨胀，而不会引发 经济衰退”。 -布拉德主张将最高利率提高到近5.4％，与市场价格大致相符。 圣路易斯联邦储备银行行长詹姆斯·布拉德表达了对央行击败通货膨胀的信心，并在周三 呼吁加快抗击的步伐。 布拉德告诉CNBC，现在更积极地加息将为联邦公开市场委员会提供更好的机会来降低通胀 ，尽管通胀已从2022年危险的水平下降，但仍然处於较高的水平。 他在直播的“Squawk Box”采访中说：“现在流行的是说'让我们减速，感受我们需要到 达的地方'。我们仍然没有达到委员会所谓的终端利率。达到这个水平，然後凭感觉找到 自己需要做的事情。当下一步可能是升或降时，你就会知道自己已经到达了那个水平。" 在这些评论一周前，布拉德和克利夫兰联邦储备银行行长洛雷塔·梅斯特都表示，他们在 上次会议上推动半个百分点的加息，而不是联邦公开市场委员会最终批准的0.25个百分点 。 他们表示，他们将继续支持在三月份的会议上采取更积极的措施。这些言论以及一批通胀 数据高於预期，引发了市场的波动，引发了人们对联邦储备银行需要更多工作来降低物价 的担忧。 但布拉德表示，更积极的措施将是他认为最终会成功的策略的一部分。 他说：“如果通胀继续下降，我想我们会没事的。我们现在的风险是通胀不下降，重新加 速，然後你要怎麽办？我们必须做出反应，如果通胀不开始下降，你就冒着重演1970年代 的风险..你不想陷入这种局面。现在让我们严明起来，在2023年将通胀控制下来。" 尽管讲话更为强硬，通胀数据也持续走高，但根据芝商所（CME Group）的数据，市场仍 普遍预计下个月联邦储备委员会会选择加息0.25个百分点的幅度。 然而，期货交易表明，基准短期借款利率将在今年夏季达到终端水准，预计为5.36%，高 於委员会成员在去年12月做出的5.1%估计，但与布拉德预测的5.375%利率相符。 投资者担心更高的利率可能会使经济陷入衰退。周二，主要股指出现了本年度最大的抛售 ，抹去了道琼斯工业平均指数在2023年取得的所有涨幅。 但是，布拉德表示，他认为「我们有很大机会在2023年打败通胀而不会引发衰退」 他说：「中国正在恢复，欧洲比我们预想的更强劲。而美国经济可能比市场在六到八周 前认为的更具有弹性。" 投资者将在周三晚些时候得到另一个了解美联储思路的机会，届时FOMC将在美国东部时间 下午2点公布1月31日至2月1日会议的会议纪要。 心得/评论： 虽然鹰王又在放鹰,但大家都能够预期的事情就没甚麽好怕了. 而且虽然提倡尽速升息,而且终端利率可能会上调,但距离目前估计也不会太多. 市场还是对即将到来的降息充满着信心.(即使大家都预测要2024才有可能) --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc), 来自: 118.160.91.144 (台湾) ※ 文章网址: https://webptt.com/cn.aspx?n=bbs/Stock/M.1677086814.A.90D.html 补个清单 2023 Committee Members -Jerome H. Powell, Board of Governors, Chair -John C. Williams, New York, Vice Chair -Michael S. Barr, Board of Governors -Michelle W. Bowman, Board of Governors -Lisa D. Cook, Board of Governors -Austan D. Goolsbee, Chicago -Patrick Harker, Philadelphia -Philip N. Jefferson, Board of Governors -Neel Kashkari, Minneapolis -Lorie K. Logan, Dallas -Christopher J. Waller, Board of Governors Alternate Members -Thomas I. Barkin, Richmond -Raphael W. Bostic, Atlanta -Mary C. Daly, San Francisco -Loretta J. Mester, Cleveland -Helen E. Mucciolo, Interim First Vice President, New York ※ 编辑: Severine (118.160.91.144 台湾), 02/23/2023 02:01:18