作者TCSSH ()
看板Statistics
标题[问题] 贝氏定理的
时间Sun Mar 19 16:41:24 2006
6.
A patient takes a lab test and the result comes back either positive or
negative. The test returns a correct positive result in 99% of the cases in
which the disease is actually present, and a correct negative result in 98%
of the cases in which the disease is not present. Furthermore,0.001 of all
people have this cancer.
(a) If a person is tested positive, what is the probability that this person
has the cancer.
(b) If a person takes two independent tests and both return positive results.
What is the probability that this person has the cancer?
(c) If a person takes two independent tests and only one returns positive
result. What is the probability that this person has the cancer?
我的算法是:
a). 0.1/100 x 99/100 =9.9/10000
b). (0.1/100 x 99/100)+(0.1/100 x 99/100) =19.8/10000
c). (0.1/100 x 99/100)+(0.1/100 x 2/100) = 10.1/10000
可以帮我看看我算的对不对吗 谢谢
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※ 编辑: TCSSH 来自: 203.72.77.106 (03/19 16:42)