前文恕删 看到推文去看了Derek Bodner的文章，真的蛮有意思的，提供一个很厉害的想法 想说翻翻看给大家分享，但薪资真的很复杂，所以哪边翻错大家可以指正我。 Amir Johnson, Robert Covington, and the Sixers' remaining cap space. By Derek Bodner https://goo.gl/488MSV Over the weekend the Philadelphia 76ers agreed to terms with veteran free agents J.J. Redick (1 year, $23 million) and Amir Johnson (1 year, $11 million). The moves improved the Sixers’ depth both on the perimeter and in the frontcourt, provided much-needed shooting to surround Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid, and Markelle Fultz with, and gave Brett Brown a couple of veterans in the locker room. Along with the just over $7 million cap hold for #1 overall pick Markelle Fultz, that leaves the Sixers with just about $15 million left under the $99 million salary cap. Next up on the Sixers’ agenda could very well be a renegotiated (and extended) contract for small forward Robert Covington, something which I’ve written about in the past (subscribers), and something which Zach Lowe of ESPN said was likely to happen. What exactly can the Sixers offer? What is the benefit to doing this? And how do the Redick and Johnson signings impact the Sixers’ ability to get that done? 七六人签下J.J Redick(1年2300万美元)和Amir Johnson(1年1100万美元)，这个补强让七 六人提供了外围和前场的深度，并为Ben Simmons和Joel Embiid和Markelle Fultz提供了 需要的外线火力，并且给了Brett Brown两名更衣室的老将。 加上Markelle Fultz大约7M的薪水，七六人离薪资上限大约还有15M的空间(跟板友算的一 样)。 接下来，七六人可能会把心思放在重新谈判(并且延长)Roco的合约，一些我曾经写过， ESPN的Zach Lowe也曾经说过的事情可能会发生。 七六人能提供给Roco什麽？这样做有什麽好处？J.J Redick和Amir Johnson的合约对这些 事会有什麽影响？ (简单来说就是稍微介绍一下签约过程，卖个关子要你继续看下去他说什麽XD) Some dates: * July 1st: Robert Covington’s contract can be extended. * November 15th: Robert Covington’s 2017-18 contract can be renegotiated. These have to be done at the same time. So, if you want to renegotiate *and* extend, that has to wait until November 15th. * February 28th: Last day the Sixers can renegotiate. * June 30th: Last day the Sixers can extend. Note: The deadline for Covington’s extension will occasionally be listed as the end of October, but that is only the deadline for players on a rookie scale contract. Covington is entering his 5th season in the NBA and was undrafted, and thus not operating under a rookie scale contract, so his rules are different. 一些日期： 7/1 可以「延长」Roco的合约。(extended) 11/15 可以「重新协商」Roco的合约(renegotiated) 如果要两个动作一起做，那你必须在11/15才能够一口气完成延长和重新协商合约。 (编按：这边说一下「延长」和「重新协商」的差别，「延长」是指从下一年开始跑新合约 ，也就是2017-2018这个赛季Roco还是领一百多万的薪水，下一份合约从2018-2019才开始 生效「重新协商」则是指在今年就直接换合约，新的合约从今年就开始计算，Roco在2017 -2018可以直接领到他和球团协商出来的薪水。) 2/28 最後可以重新协商的日期 6/30 最後可以延长合约的日期 Note： 有些人会把Roco最後延长合约的日期列为10月底，但这是一般新秀最後能够延长合约的日 期，然而Roco正在迈入他的第五年赛季，且他并非经由选秀会进入NBA，因此并不是依照一 般新秀合约的模式运行。 Renegotiation – The Math The Sixers are in a unique situation because they still, even after the Redick and Johnson signings, have upwards of $15 million in salary cap space remaining, and few options left to use that money responsibly. Heck, they still have more than $5 million to spend before reaching the cap floor, a completely overblown “requirement”, but still something that effectively sets a team baseline for spending. Using that room to renegotiate Covington’ s contract for 2017-18, to essentially give him a “bonus”, makes sense if it can be used to sign him to a below market deal for an extension. Let’s say that Covington and his agent have their eyes set on a 4 year, $60 million contract when he becomes an unrestricted free agent next summer. Whether or not he will get that contract is besides the point, in part because you’re not paying what he’ll get but what will prevent them from giving up the chance to become an unrestricted free agent, and in part because this is only a dollar figure created in my head to illustrate a point. 重新协商的数学问题 七六人处於一个很特别的状态，即使签下了Redick和Johnson，七六人还是有15M的薪资空 间，但可以让这个15M的空间发挥它最大效益的选项相当少，而七六人还差5M才能满足薪 资下限，这也是一个相当不幸的需求，但仍然有个有效率的方法，可以相当有效率的利用 这个空间的方法--用这个空间去和Roco重新协商2017-2018的合约，给他的一个「奖金」， 让他接受一个稍低於市价的延长合约。 若Roco和他的经纪人决定在明年暑假成为完全自由球员时，他们所寻找的肯定一是一份4 年60M的合约，他会不会得到这个数目的合约并不是重点，重点在於七六人要如何阻止他 成为一个自由球员，而我只知道美金可以征服一切(?)。 With a 4 year, $60 million contract as a completely made up goal, that means that, when you add in his current $1.57 million deal for the 2017-18 season, Covington’s earnings over the next 5 years would hypothetically be $61.57 million. Renegotiating his 2017-18 salary can help the Sixers reach this 5-year payout at a far cheaper rate in subsequent years. The Sixers can renegotiate Covington’s 2017-18 salary up to the amount of salary cap space they have available, meaning right now they can bump his 2017-18 pay up to $16.57 million. They can then drop the salary from the renegotiated year (2017-18) to the first year of the extension (2018-19) far more than the typical 8% max decline. In fact, they can drop the salary by up to 40% between those two years. This means that the Sixers can take a significant portion of the cap hit this year, when they can’t responsibly use their remaining cap space anyway. Roco预计拿到的价码 如果以4年60M为目标，也就是说包含即将到来的2017-2018赛季Roco能领到1.57M，加上之 後四年60M，在未来五年，Roco能领到的全部薪水会是61.57M(编按：1.57M+60M)。如果七 六人重新协商Roco在2017-2018合约的话，可以让合约年限内Roco就拿到这个数目的薪水。 七六人可以重新协商Roco在2017-2018的合约，将所有薪资空间都给他，这样代表他在 2017-2018年可以拿到16.57M的合约(编按：他自己的1.57M+现在剩下的15M)，然後设定一 个远远超过一般人会签订，逐年减少8%薪资的合约。而事实上两年内薪资减少的幅度可以 到达40%(这边不是很确定，希望有人指正) 这意味着，七六人在在今年的薪资空间中做出重大的决定，之後不能再挥霍他们的薪资空 间了。 To get Covington his money without a renegotiation, the Sixers could sign him as a free agent with a potential payout over the next 5 years could look like this: 2017-18: $1.57 million 2018-19: $15.0 million 2019-20: $15.0 million 2020-21: $15.0 million 2021-22: $15.0 million Total: $61.57 million Using the $15 million in cap space they have remaining, a renegotiated and extended contract can instead look like this: 2017-18: $16.57 million 2018-19: $12.8 million 2019-20: $11.8 million 2020-21: $10.8 million 2021-22: $9.7 million Total: $61.6 million Did the signings of Redick and Johnson have an impact on this? The Sixers can still work out a renegotiate and extend contract with Covington when November 15th rolls around, and they can still do so on a deal that is relatively advantageous to them. However, the signings did have an impact, albeit small. The more the Sixers can offer Covington as a bonus this year, the cheaper they can make the backend of that contract while still getting Covington to the hypothetically desired $61.57 million mark. For example, if the Sixers had an extra $5 million in cap space available to them they could instead offer a renegotiate and extend deal like this: 2017-18: $20.0 million 2018-19: $12.0 million 2019-20: $11.0 million 2020-21: $10.1 million 2021-22: $9.1 million Total: $62.2 million That’s not a huge difference, as we’re only talking roughly $700k to $1 million per year difference, or less than 1% of future salary caps. You also can’t go too far beyond $20 million this year, since you can only drop the 2018-19 salary by 40% off that renegotiated season. Where that becomes a factor is if Covington’s actual asking price for an extension is beyond the 4 year, $60 million hypothetical I offered up. 试算薪资 试算一下如果Roco没有重新协商，作为一个自由球员，七六人可以给他的薪水可能是： 2017-18: $1.57 m 2018-19: $15.0 m 2019-20: $15.0 m 2020-21: $15.0 m 2021-22: $15.0 m 总共: $61.57 m 再试算一下，如果今年重新协商并延长Roco的合约，七六人能提供给他的合约可能是： 2017-18: $16.57 m 2018-19: $12.8 m 2019-20: $11.8 m 2020-21: $10.8 m 2021-22: $9.7 m 总共: $61.6 m (编按：就是说试算後，其实两种模式Roco能领到的薪水是差不多的) 而Redick和Johnson的合约对这个计画有影响吗？有，但是不大，在11月15日七六人仍然可 以和Roco重新协商并延长合约，而且他们仍然可以朝着对他们相对有利一点的方向去进行 。然而，Redick和Johnson的合约确实仍有影响，因为今年如果能给Roco越大的合约，在这 份合约的後面几年可以更便宜，同时订下一个金额总数仍然有61.57M美元的合约。 例如说，如果今年七六人多出5M的空间，那Roco的合约可能会变成这样： 2017-18: $20.0 m 2018-19: $12.0 m 2019-20: $11.0 m 2020-21: $10.1 m 2021-22: $ 9.1 m 总共: $62.2 m 这不会有很大的差异，因为每年的差距大约只在0.7-1M之间，不到未来薪资上限的1%，而 2017-2018能给的最大薪资也不可能给超过20M，因为2017-2018的薪水和2018-2019的薪水 不能差距超过40%，所以这边所有的假设建立在於Roco所追求的薪水是4年60M的状况下为基 础。 The exact amount Covington will earn on the open market is an interesting debate in itself. The market for wings dried up considerably this year, as was expected when the abnormal $24 million salary cap spike heading into the 2016 free agency period created a spending spree that wasn’t going to be replicated by the relatively small $5 million jump the cap will see this year. The funny money that guys like Allen Crabbe and Evan Turner received last year is out the window, thank goodness. (Note: There are a couple of other example “targets” listed at the bottom of this article. This was mostly meant to illustrate the benefits of renegotiating this year, not to debate whether Covington will get, or warrants, a 4 year, $60 million extension). Still, when convincing Covington to extend now before he even gets to free agency, you’re not just dealing with equaling whatever Covington would get in free agency next year, but paying a price that would make Covington and his agent willing to forgo the process altogether. That’s not always easy to do, which is why extensions are typically done for guys who are max contract worthy, the types of guys that the NBA has made extension decisions no-brainers for. Yet it makes sense to offer Covington a huge boost in 2017-18 pay in the hopes that it can get him at a lower per-year contract than if they waited until next summer to lock him up. They can, essentially, turn what would have been a $15 million per year contract into an $11.2 million per year contract thanks to the flexibility their cap space provides. Doing so would give Covington the same amount of money in the end, but much of it far sooner than he otherwise would have received. There’s substantial benefits for both sides. With Redick (and, to a lesser degree, Johnson) now in the fold, locking Covington into a long-term deal at a below market rate should be the Sixers’ top priority. And, luckily, the Amir Johnson contract shouldn’t be too big of an impediment to getting that done. Roco在自由市场上的价值本身就是一个有趣的议题，侧翼球员在市场上的价值在今年大幅 下降，和2016那个侧翼要24M的疯狂市场比起来，在今年整体价值大约少了5M左右，谢天 谢地像Allen Crabbe和Evan Turner的所收到的报价并不是常态。(这边也不是很确定，希 忘能指正) (本文最後还列出了一些其他的情况，只是要说明今年重新谈判的好处，并不是在质疑 Roco有没有4年60M的价值) 尽管如此，要说服Roco和他的经纪人现在签约而不进入自由市场，并不是端出和他进入自 由市场後能拿到的相同报价一样就能达成的，这并不容易。这也是为何，对能拿到顶薪的 球员来说，投入自由市场，是完全不需要经过思考的答案。 然而，让Roco在2017-2018的赛季就拿到一个巨额增长幅度的合约是有Sense的，虽然这会 让他拿到一个，跟他明年夏天成为自由球员以後，平均年薪比较低的合约，从平均15M变 成平均11.2M的合约，这得益於目前七六人还拥有的薪资弹性。不过这样做会让Roco得到 一个金额相同，但能更早能够拿到钱的合约，这对双方都有好处。 随着Redick(和比较小影响的Johnson)签下後，将Roco以长期低於市价的合约留住，应该 是七六人现在的首要任务，幸运的是，Amir Johnson的合约并不会大到妨碍这样的操作方 法。 Other Examples: If Covington is targeting a 4 year, $55 million extension: (No renegotiation -> with renegotiation) 2017-18: $1.57m -> $16.57m 2018-19: $13.75m -> $11.4m 2019-20: $13.75m -> $10.5m 2020-21: $13.75m -> $9.6m 2021-22: $13.75m -> $8.6m 4 year, $50 million extension: (No renegotiation -> with renegotiation) 2017-18: $1.57m -> $16.57m 2018-19: $12.5m -> $10.0m 2019-20: $12.5m -> $9.2m 2020-21: $12.5m -> $8.4m 2021-22: $12.5m -> $7.6m 4 year, $48 million extension: (No renegotiation -> with renegotiation) 2017-18: $1.57m -> $16.0m 2018-19: $12.5m -> $9.6m 2019-20: $12.5m -> $8.8m 2020-21: $12.5m -> $8.1m 2021-22: $12.5m -> $7.3m 4 year, $44 million extension: (No renegotiation -> with renegotiation) 2017-18: $1.57m -> $14.5m 2018-19: $11.0m -> $8.7m 2019-20: $11.0m -> $8.0m 2020-21: $11.0m -> $7.3m 2021-22: $11.0m -> $6.6m 4 year, $40 million extension: (No renegotiation -> with renegotiation) 2017-18: $1.57m -> $13.5m 2018-19: $12.5m -> $8.1m 2019-20: $12.5m -> $7.5m 2020-21: $12.5m -> $6.8m 2021-22: $12.5m -> $6.2m 另外的一些试算： 如果Roco只拿4年55M的合约(没有重新协商/重新协商) 2017-18: $1.57m -> $16.57m 2018-19: $13.75m -> $11.4m 2019-20: $13.75m -> $10.5m 2020-21: $13.75m -> $9.6m 2021-22: $13.75m -> $8.6m 如果Roco只拿4年50M的合约(没有重新协商/重新协商) 2017-18: $1.57m -> $16.57m 2018-19: $12.5m -> $10.0m 2019-20: $12.5m -> $9.2m 2020-21: $12.5m -> $8.4m 2021-22: $12.5m -> $7.6m 如果Roco只拿4年48M的合约(没有重新协商/重新协商) 2017-18: $1.57m -> $16.0m 2018-19: $12.0m -> $9.6m 2019-20: $12.0m -> $8.8m 2020-21: $12.0m -> $8.1m 2021-22: $12.0m -> $7.3m 如果Roco只拿4年44M的合约(没有重新协商/重新协商) 2017-18: $1.57m -> $14.5m 2018-19: $11.0m -> $8.7m 2019-20: $11.0m -> $8.0m 2020-21: $11.0m -> $7.3m 2021-22: $11.0m -> $6.6m 如果Roco只拿4年40M的合约(没有重新协商/重新协商) 2017-18: $1.57m -> $13.5m 2018-19: $10.0m -> $8.1m 2019-20: $10.0m -> $7.5m 2020-21: $10.0m -> $6.8m 2021-22: $10.0m -> $6.2m ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 标题有些是自己加的，方便大家阅读。 如果嫌文章太长，这边简单来个懒人包 就是延长合约会在下一年开始跑新的合约，重新协商合约会在今年就开始跑新的合约，本 文的作者觉得，如果把剩下的薪资空间都给Roco，让Roco从2017-2018年就开始不要当低 薪族，然後设定一个逐年递减的合约，就能让Roco在未来的五年内领到同样的合约，可是 在最後几年七六人面临Simmons、Saric和Fultz要重新签约时，能够拥有更多的薪资弹性， 因为在这个时间点Roco会领着一份，因为逐年递减而不符合市价的薪水，但作者认为这是 有可能的，因为能够让Roco更早领到高额的薪水对他来说不是一件坏事，在薪资成长不如 预期的状况下，能更早获得保障，对Roco来说是可以考虑的选项。完全是我没想过的操作 模式，非常厉害。 最後问个问题，如果重新协商的最後期限是2/28，那Roco在2017-2018的薪水到底怎麽算 啊？季赛都进行到一半了？ 如果有问题还麻烦指正，如果以这种薪水递减的模式留住Roco，好像会是一个非常好的 方法？ --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc), 来自: 123.194.217.76 ※ 文章网址: https://webptt.com/cn.aspx?n=bbs/Sixers/M.1499539648.A.291.html ※ 编辑: jerry7603 (123.194.217.76), 07/09/2017 02:56:57 ※ 编辑: jerry7603 (123.194.217.76), 07/09/2017 12:34:55 ※ 编辑: jerry7603 (123.194.217.76), 07/11/2017 00:24:59