用程式计算了一下一些简单的机率(数字为四舍五入) [表格] 先攻全力找卡拿到机率 意思是收抽没抽到就全换，未考虑抽牌卡(摸头、哥布林法师等等) 简单结论请直接下一页 目标卡牌数 (6=3张目标+3张拉指定牌，例如放3女仆拉3旗) 回合数 1 2 3 6 -------------------------------------- 1 17.5% 32.31% 44.78% 71.14% 2 20.0% 36.41% 49.8% 76.39% 3 22.5% 40.38% 54.5% 80.82% 4 25.0% 44.23% 58.91% 84.53% 5 27.5% 47.95% 63.02% 87.62% 6 30.0% 51.54% 66.84% 90.18% 7 32.5% 55.0% 70.39% 92.29% 8 35.0% 58.33% 73.68% 94.0% 9 37.5% 61.54% 76.72% 95.39% 10 40.0% 64.62% 79.51% 96.49% 11 42.5% 67.56% 82.07% 97.37% 12 45.0% 70.38% 84.41% 98.06% 13 47.5% 73.08% 86.54% 98.59% 14 50.0% 75.64% 88.46% 98.99% 15 52.5% 78.08% 90.19% 99.29% 16 55.0% 80.38% 91.74% 99.52% 17 57.5% 82.56% 93.12% 99.68% 18 60.0% 84.62% 94.33% 99.79% 19 62.5% 86.54% 95.39% 99.87% 20 65.0% 88.33% 96.32% 99.92% 21 67.5% 90.0% 97.11% 99.96% 22 70.0% 91.54% 97.77% 99.98% 23 72.5% 92.95% 98.33% 99.99% 24 75.0% 94.23% 98.79% 99.99% 25 77.5% 95.38% 99.15% 100.0% 26 80.0% 96.41% 99.43% 100.0% 27 82.5% 97.31% 99.65% 100.0% 28 85.0% 98.08% 99.8% 100.0% 29 87.5% 98.72% 99.9% 100.0% 30 90.0% 99.23% 99.96% 100.0% 31 92.5% 99.62% 99.99% 100.0% 32 95.0% 99.87% 100.0% 100.0% 33 97.5% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% -------------------------------------- 一些常见机率(未考虑摸头等等抽牌、滤牌卡)： 旗皇3+3 4回合有旗机率 & 复仇吸3+3 4回合可以进复仇机率 84.53%(先攻) 87.62%(後攻) 蛙皇3张蛙 3回合有蛙机率 54.5%(先攻) 58.91%(後攻) 下面，没列在表格上另外算的，高费牌持有机率 考虑通常高费关键牌还是会换掉避免卡手， 下面数据是先攻、三张全换、抽到目标高费也会换掉的机率 (没计算拉牌、滤牌，所以实际通常会更高) 5T快皇手上有星爆 52.97% 6T死灵手上有死祝 57.84% 7T死灵手上有ㄇㄐㄐ 62.36% 9T天盾教手上有天盾 70.4% 再强调一次，以上数据皆未计算滤牌。可以查表观察一下滤牌效益。 ------------------------- 抽卡包机率 抽一包有虹卡机率: 11.39% 抽十包有虹卡机率: 70.15% 首抽 48 包无虹卡: 3% <---- 为什麽会算这个，因为我中奖过.. 10抽虹卡数量期望值: 1.2张 首抽48包虹卡期望值: 5.76张 -- 本着作系采用创用 CC 姓名标示-相同方式分享 4.0 国际 授权条款授权. 转贴及改着之权利请参考：https://goo.gl/O3cqZp -- 自动发P币请爱用 MumiGiveP #1OoJcbq- (EZsoft) Mac也能用喔! https://webptt.com/cn.aspx?n=bbs/EZsoft/M.1489582501.A.D3E.html --

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