※ [本文转录自 MLB 看板 #1E5NZrjT ] 作者: poplc () 看板: MLB 标题: [情报] MLB 2011 No-Stars Team 时间: Thu Jul 7 17:14:27 2011 MLB 2011 No-Stars Team This group of players have hurt their respective teams immensely over the first half 这组球员上半季严重伤害各自球队 By Jonah Keri/FanGraphs Welcome to the No-Stars Team. Rather than focusing on All-Stars, or All-Star snubs, we reward some of the worst first-half performers with special honors. If you're a .190 hitter or own a 6.00 ERA, you've got a good shot at making the team. But special circumstances help. A player who's having a bad year and getting tons of playing time has a shot at the team. A player who's having a bad year, getting tons of playing time and getting paid superstar dollars is a virtual lock. Without further ado, here's this year's No-Stars Team: 欢迎来到没星队。比起把焦点放在全明星或者全明星遗珠，我们要把这项特别荣耀 颁发给上半季最糟的球员。 如果你是 0.190的打者或者是防御率6.00的投手，你将有不错的机会入选进这组队伍 ，但有特别情况的会有加分。像是上场机会特多但表现特烂的球员，有大点机会入选这 支队伍。或者是上场机会多、表现特差的球员、兼拿超级明星薪水的球员会被自动锁定 。 闲话少说，以下是本年度没星队。 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ C Joe Mauer (.244/.298/.291, minus-0.2 WAR, $23 million) A consensus top-10 MLB player, and possibly the best player on the planet just two years ago, Mauer has seen persistent leg injuries curtail his power and threaten his longterm outlook. He has just one homer since Aug. 19 of last year and isn't roping line drives like he once did either. Still just 28, Mauer has plenty of time to get healthy and return to elite status. But calls for him to switch positions to avoid further injuries aren't reassuring, especially when Mauer has seven and a half years left on a $184 million contract. 一位被公认为MLB前十强的球员，两年前他可能是地球上最好的球员，但Mauer持续 不断的腿伤问题已经开始削弱他打击威力，甚至威胁到他的未来生涯。自去年 8月 19号以来，他仅有一发全垒打，而且也不能像过去一样打出强劲平飞球。 虽然只有28岁，Mauer 有许多时间恢复健康并且变回以往的菁英状态，但要他更换 守备位置也不能保证他避免更多伤病问题，特别是Mauer还有一份7年半1.84亿的合 约。 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1B Aubrey Huff (.244/.299/.379, minus-0.7 WAR, $10 million) Never overpay for last year's stats. It's a truism that's held true for as long as baseball has been played, yet general managers continue to make this mistake. The Giants acquired Huff on a cheap one-year, $3 million deal, following a season in which he was nearly two full wins worse than a replacement-level player. He then enjoyed a monster season, putting up an .891 OPS and serving as a key player on the Giants' championship team. The lesson should have been that buying low can pay big dividends. Giants GM Brian Sabean apparently thought it meant that giving a wildly erratic, 34-year-old defensive butcher a two-year, $22 million deal, even with a top first-base prospect waiting in the wings. Flags fly forever, but postchampionship glow can lead to bad decisions too. 绝对别因为去年数据就超付薪资。只要棒球开打，这句话就会是蕴含真理的老生常 谈，然而球队总管总是持续的犯下这个错误。巨人队在Huff打的极烂的一年用极便 宜的一年三百万合约签下，然後他展现怪物的一年，缴出惊人的OPS 0.891 ，在巨 人的冠军之路扮演关键球员的角色，这让我们学到应该是逢低买进才能赚饱饱。 但巨人总管Brian Sabean显然认为那个优秀成绩的意义是，用两年2千2百万的合约 签下这位34岁、又极不稳定的暴烂防守者，还胜过等着展翅高飞的自家一垒顶级新 秀。胜利的旗帜会永远飘扬，但冠军後的喜悦会造成错误的决策。 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2B Dan Uggla (.175/.241/.330, minus-0.7 WAR, $9 million) The Braves have gotten all-world pitching performances from Jair Jurrjens, Craig Kimbrel and Jonny Venters, lead the NL wild card race and have ample minor league depth to bolster the roster as the season wears on. But one can't but wonder what this team would look like if Dan Uggla were hitting like the elite offensive second baseman he'd been during the first five years of his career. He's not terribly far off his 31-homer average from those first five seasons, but his on-base percentage has cratered. His .189 batting average on balls in play will almost surely see some positive regression. But whether it's due to pressing or genuine skills erosion, Uggla's walk rate (11.6 percent in 2010, 7.8 percent this year), isolated slugging (.218 career, .162 this year) and line drive rate (17.8 percent in 2010, 14.1 percent this year) are all way down. Like Mauer, Uggla is just starting a longterm deal (five years, $62 million), so the Braves have to hope signing a 31-year-old second baseman with old player's skills won't end up looking as bad as it does now. 勇士从Jair Jurrjens、Craig Kimbrel、Jonny Venters 身上得到全世界最华丽 的投手表现，也因此在竞争国联外卡取得领先地位，充足的小联盟人才还可以随 着球季进行而增强战力。 但不得不好奇的是如果 Dan Uggla可以拥有像他生涯前五年那顶级二垒的身手， 这球队会变成如何？那五年他的全垒打平均产量有31发，距离前五年平均31发并 不算相去甚远，上垒率也是坑坑疤疤，BABIP 更只有0.189(打者将球打进场内形 成安打的机率)，这应该是会往正常范围上修一些.。 不管是因为过於急躁或者打击技巧变弱，Uggla 的保送率(2010年11.6%，今年只 有7.8%)、纯长打率(生涯0.218，今年0.162)、平飞球率(2010年 17.8%，今年是 14.1%)全部都在下滑。就像Mauer一样，Uggla 的长期合约(5年6千2百万)才刚开 始而已，所以勇士必须祈祷这位31岁就打老头球的二垒手最後的表现不像现在这 麽差劲。 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3B Chone Figgins (.185/.230/.246, minus-1.3 WAR, $9 million) Fun fact, via my FanGraphs and ESPN Insider colleague Dave Cameron: Mariners third basemen have combined for a .464 OPS; Detroit is second-to-last, but nearly 100 points better. Seattle can thank Chone Figgins for that atrocity. A player who looked like a perfect fit for spacious Safeco Field -- lots of walks, gap power, great speed -- Figgins might now be the worst everyday hitter in baseball. His defense has tailed off sharply from peak levels, and his baserunning skill has also started to wane. Figgins might be the former star who's least likely to bounce back in the entire No-Stars lineup. Two and a half more years to go on his four-year, $36 million contract, and that assumes his $9 million option doesn't vest in 2014. Oy. 透过我在FanGraphs和ESPN Insider的同事 Dave Cameron所发现有趣的事实：水手 所有三垒手合起来的平均OPS是0.464；底特律是倒数第二位，但 OPS却整整多了一 成。西雅图全都应该归因於Chone Figgins的糟糕打击。 他应该是能够完美适应这宽敞的Safeco Field才对，很多保送、有长打威力、极佳 的速度。但 Figgins现在可能是球界最糟的先发打者，他的防守不再像是顶级选手 般的犀利，他的跑垒技巧也开始减弱。Figgins 之前也许是球星，但在这整个没星 名单当中最不太可能止跌回升的大概就是他。在他 4年3千6百万的合约中目前走了 2年半，但这是假设没有2014年9百万的选择权。 喔耶！ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SS Hanley Ramirez (.227/.318/.351, 0.7 WAR, $11 million) Derek Jeter has been nearly as bad and makes more money, and several other starting shortstops fall below replacement level. But Ramirez has been the biggest disappointment by far, given his performance levels heading into this season. Though his numbers dipped a bit in 2010, Ramirez still hit .300/.378/.475, huge numbers at a time when shortstop talent was so thin. Back problems have sapped his effectiveness this year, and that's a red flag given that he's had back issues before. As with Mauer, Ramirez could benefit from playing a less strenuous position; the key would be whether he can reignite his offense if he were eventually moved to a corner or to the outfield. A hot start has turned into another lost season for the Marlins, so they'll have plenty of time to monitor Ramirez and figure out how to handle him in the final three years of his contract. Derek Jeter赚较多钱，打击表现差不多一样烂，而其他几位先发游击手也变成替补 等级。但到目前为止最让人失望却是Ramirez，本季他的表现完全陷入低潮。虽然在 2010年时他的数字有点下滑，Ramirez还是打出.300/.378/.475，当游击人才如此凋 零的状况，这数字看起来是非常的威猛。 今年背伤问题降低他的影响力，而这也是个红色警戒，提醒球队他以前就有的背伤， 如同Mauer，Ramirez或许可以换个比较不吃力的守备位置来减低他的困扰，但重点是 如果他最後换到三垒或外野去守备，他是否能重新点燃以往的火力。由於马林鱼今年 的战绩从虎头变成蛇尾，所以他们将会有大量的时间来观察 Ramirez，并且仔细思考 一下如何处理他最後三年的合约。 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LF Raul Ibanez (.234/.283/.392, minus-1.3 WAR, $11.5 million) The scary thing about Ibanez's performance (he's last among major league left fielders in WAR) is that these numbers look infinitely better than the ones he posted in April (.465 OPS). But after a monster May in which he swatted 16 extra-base hits, Ibanez hit .211/.258/.311 in June and looks like a player who should be cut -- or at least benched, given the Phillies' World Series aspirations. Despite the Tony Batista-like OBP, Ibanez's biggest problem, as ever, in his defense. He's one of the worst everyday defenders in the majors, so much so that he needs to put up major offensive numbers to become a valuable player. The Phillies are rumored to be shopping for a right-handed bat to bolster their lineup down the stretch. They should be shopping for someone to replace Ibanez, period. Ibanez 今年的表现实在恐怖，他在全大联盟左外野手贡献度(WAR)排行榜位居最後 一名，但这些数字跟他四月的 OPS 0.465比起来简直是无限美好。在五月份他挥出 16支长打，之後的六月的打击三围是 .211/.258/.311 。像他这样成绩的球员应该 被砍掉，或者至少得坐板凳，才能给费城冠军的希望。 先不论他是否像Tony Batista这类型的球员(不在乎上垒率偏低)，Ibanez一直以来 最大的问题就是他的防守，他是联盟中最糟糕的固定先发防守球员，以至於更需要 致力打击而变成有价值的选手。有谣传说费城人想要买个右打者，藉此来改善打线 ，但他们应该先交易个可以暂时换掉Ibanez的选手。 (Vernon Wells warrants an honorable mention here as well, with a minus-0.3 WAR and the Angels on the hook for $18 million of his preposterous $23 million salary this season.) 特别在此提到Vernon Wells，他也保证能拿到这个荣誉奖，WAR是-0.3之外，本季还 钓到天使队这傻子，支付他那$23M中的$18M。 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CF Alex Rios (.218/.269/.319, minus-0.3 WAR, $12 million) When the White Sox grabbed Rios off waivers from Toronto in August 2009, they did so knowing full well they'd be on the hook for the bulk of his seven-year, $70 million contract. But in Rios, the Pale Hose saw a legitimate five-tool player, someone who at various points in his career had posted monster numbers in various categories: 74 extra-base hits in 2007, 32 steals in 2008 and strong defensive performances throughout. It was only a matter of time, they figured, before Rios put it all together. 在2009年8月时，白袜透过waivers从多伦多抢到Rios，他们也非常清楚他们将会被 七年七千万的巨型合约套住。但在Rios身上，白袜合理的认为他是五工具选手，他 在各阶段生涯各个项目展现各种的怪物能力：2007年有74支长打、2008年有32次盗 垒，而且从头到尾都有强力的防守表现。他们认为在Rios把各式能力结合在一起前 ，这是各个过度时期。 That hasn't been the case this year. As with several other players on this list, Rios has been the victim of some bad luck, sporting a paltry .227 batting average on balls in play. But he's also the same guy who never walks, meaning he needs to hit for a high average and show power to yield positive offensive value. He's the third-best baserunner in the majors according to FanGraphs' advanced measures, but that speed hasn't shown up in his stolen base or defensive results, both of which are way down for him this year. 今年这些假设都没成为事实。当然有其他几位选手应该要放进这个名单，Rios只是 比较衰被我们点名。他的BABIP是很低的0.227，但他也跟一些人一样不爱保送，这 个意思是说他必须有更高打击率，展现他的威力，才能在攻击上有正面贡献。根据 FanGraphs 进阶数据，他在大联盟是第三快的跑者，但这速度并没有在盗垒或是防 守上展现出成绩来，在本年度两者数据指标都在下降。 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RF Magglio Ordonez (.212/.279/.285, minus-0.7 WAR, $10 million) Never the most durable player, Ordonez played just 84 games last season. He hit well while on the field(.303/.378/.474), but heading into the season at 37 years old and having just missed half a year, a one-year deal at a low price was the only option that made sense. The Tigers got the one-year deal, but the $10 million contract was a lot for a Detroit team that has carried nine-figure payrolls for the past four years, but has nowhere near the revenue streams that the Yankees, Red Sox and other penthouse-dwelling teams do. With Brennan Boesch, Andy Dirks and other intriguing outfield options around, the deal made even less sense -- and that was before Ordonez stopped hitting entirely. Ordonez 从来就不是耐操型的选手，去年也不过上阵84场比赛，不过他在场上的打击 却拥有挺不赖的三围(.303/.378/.474)。本季这位老将的年龄已经来到37岁，而且才 刚休息了半年，用一年的低价签下也算是合理的选择。 老虎队的确签一年约，但却花了一千万的薪资，这笔大条的钱对底特律来说无疑是雪 上加霜，因为过去四年虎队担在肩上的工资总支出高达九位数，这样的支出已经逼近 像是洋基、红袜或其他名门球队的花费。且身旁有像Brennan Boesch、Andy Dirks、 或者其他更吸引人的外野选择，这合约看起来已经不太合理了，更别说之後 Ordonez 完全无法上阵。 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DH Adam Dunn (.165/.301/.302, minus-1.2 WAR, $12 million) Has Dunn fallen off a cliff the way potent sluggers like Dale Murphy and Tim Salmon once did, going from consistent terror to Nick Punto levels in the span of a single year? It's tough to know what to think. Dunn's BABIP is down to .256, the second-lowest figure of his career, but not outrageously low given the falling numbers throughout baseball. The two bigger shockers are his startling drop in power (isolated slugging of .141, vs. .265 for his career) and his abominable numbers vs. lefties (1-for-53!). U.S. Cellular Field traditionally plays as a power hitter's park, and warmer summer weather could help. But for now, White Sox GM Kenny Williams' recent gambles -- including the pickups of Dunn and Rios, and trading away budding ace Daniel Hudson -- look spectacularly bad. Dunn 的低潮状况是否就像Dale Murphy和Tim Salmon这纇强打者所遇到的一样，只 经过一年就从年年都很恐怖的打者变成Nick Punto这样的等级？真的很难理解！ Dunn的BABIP低到只剩0.256，这是他生涯第二糟的数字，从整体来说，这样下滑的 数字并没有异常的低。 打击的两大问题点在於 1.长打的可怕下滑-今年纯长打率0.141 vs 生涯纯长打率 0.265 2.畏惧左投-今年53打数只有1安打！ 白袜主场(U.S. Cellular Field)在传统上就是个打者天堂，较为温暖的夏天气候更 是有助於打者。白袜总管Kenny Williams最近的赌注(选了Dunn 和 Rios，交易掉还 在成长的王牌Daniel Hudson)，现在看来实在是超级烂。 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SP Barry Zito (3.81 ERA, 4.56 FIP, 0.1 WAR, $18.5 million) We don't mean to pick on Zito, one of the sharpest, most compelling characters in the game. It's not his fault that Brian Sabean looked past his so-so peripherals, fixated on gaudy win totals and a Cy Young award and threw $126 million at him. But that contract all but guarantees the veteran lefty a regular spot on this list, short of a monster rebound season. Zito was actually a very serviceable back-end starter the past two years, producing two-plus wins above replacement in 2009 and again in 2010. This year, injuries have nullified his chances to meet that fairly modest goal. The good news for the Giants is that Zito's injury opened the door for Ryan Vogelsong to stage one of the most amazing and unlikely comebacks in recent memory. Zito recently returned from the DL, and will get a chance with Jonathan Sanchez on the shelf. If he fails in this go-round, the Giants will face an uncomfortable decision. 我们不是有意要挑Zito，这位球赛里最犀利最迷人的角色之一。以Brian Sabean平凡 的眼光而言，他所看到的东西并不是他的错，见到华丽的胜投数字又是赛扬奖投手， 能不手软的奉上1.26亿恭请Zito大驾光临吗？但这合约却几乎保证这位左投老手能常 驻本名单的一席之地，除了某年反弹外。 实际上Zito在过去两年算是非常堪用的後段先发，2009年所产出的贡献度(WAR)是2以 上，2010再度能达成，但今年的伤病问题让他丧失机会，无法达成那相当普通的目标 。对巨人来说的好消息是，Zito的受伤为Ryan Vogelsong的表演舞台开了一扇门，他 是近年来最惊人、最不可思议的东山再起选手。 Zito最近刚从伤兵名单出来，有机会和闲置的Jonathan Sanchez竞争先发，如果他在 这次竞争中失败，巨人得面临痛苦的抉择。 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RP Joe Nathan (6.52 ERA, 5.22 FIP, minus-0.3 WAR, $11.3 million) The Twins were cautiously optimistic that their once-elite closer could start to regain his old form after missing all of 2010 following Tommy John surgery. Yielding nine walks and four homers in 19.1 innings is bad enough, but the bigger concern is the overall drop in command, and also velocity. Nathan's has generated a swinging strike percentage of just 6.8 percent (vs. 13.4 percent for his career) and his fastball velocity's down to 91.6 mph from 93.9 career. Getting sub-replacement level performance from their star catcher and star closer isn't what the Twins had in mind when they guaranteed the pair more than $34 million this season. 双城谨慎乐观看待他们的王牌终结者，在2010年做了Tommy John手术後能重拾往日雄 风。但他只投了19.1局就保送9位、被轰了4发，这实在够烂的。不过最大的问题还是 在於他的控球能力全面下滑，球速也是。 Nathan 今年让打者的挥空率(SwStr%)的产值只有6.8%(生涯有13.4%)，而且他的直球 速度也从生涯的93.9 mph掉到现在的91.6 mph。 明星捕手和王牌终结者却打出板凳选手的成绩，这肯定不是双城心中所要的，特别是 今年这两人的薪水加起来超过$3千4百万。 http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?104680-MLB-s-2011-No-Star-Team ※ 编辑: JeremyKSKGA 来自: 114.39.145.53 (07/08 00:31)