Pick-A-Penny Posted August 27th, 2009 by Chris http://www.baycityball.com/2009/08/27/pick-a-penny/ Penny will be placed on release waivers tomorrow and clear them on Monday. He can talk to other teams while on waivers, but he can’t formally enter into a contract until he clears. He would like the opportunity to start, which probably wasn’t going to happen in Boston. 『 Penny将在周一通过 waiver。在此之前他可以和其他球队交涉，但在通过waiver 之前无法正式取得合约。他寻求着一席先发地位，这是波士顿无法提供。』 Penny, the former Dodger and disgruntled right-hander, became the odd man out after the Red Sox acquired Billy Wagner to strengthen their bullpen. And with Tim Wakefield starting again, the team chose to release Penny. After Penny clears waivers on Monday, he’ll be free to sign with any team. He’s made his preference well known that he’d like to start. The bonus with signing Penny by the end of August is that he would make the cut-off for post season rosters. Penny，这位曾是道奇一员的坏脾气投手，在红袜得到 Billy Wagner以强化牛棚後，成了 波士顿的冗员。球队选择让 Tim Wakefield 再度登板先发，然後释出 Penny 。周一通过 waiver 之後，他将取得自由之身。众所周知他渴望回到先发轮值圈中。 在八月尽头签下 Penny 的另一个好处是，他还能搭上季後赛名单的末班车。 Should the Giants consider bringing him aboard? 巨人该考虑把他弄过来吗？ I think you’ve got to at least consider it. After missing most of 2008 (save for 94.2 IP) with an arm injury, the Red Sox signed Penny to a 1-year incentive laden deal over the offseason. On the surface his tenure in Boston doesn’t look very appealing — 131.2 IP, 160 H, 5.61 ERA. But, underneath things, there are some encouraging signs. First, Penny has regained some of the velocity on his fastball. According to Fangraphs’ pitch data, the average Penny fastball thrown this year has been clocked at 94 mph. That’s a near +2 mph increase off his injury shortened ‘08. 先别急着一口回绝。手伤错失2008球季大半後（该年度他仅登板94.2局），红袜与 Penny 在季末签下带有激励条款的一年短约。帐面上他的红袜岁月似乎不怎麽光采──131.2 IP ，160 H， 5.61 ERA。但更深入地挖掘一些，正面消息还是存在的。首先，Penny 找回了 他的球速。根据 Fangraphs资料显示，Penny 今年的速球均速来到94 mph，比他因伤所苦 的2008年快上 2 mph。 Secondly, Penny’s BB/9 in ‘08 shot up to 3.99 walks per 9 innings, indicating that his arm troubles could have affected his command. This year with the Red Sox Penny has regained his strike-throwing form with a 2.87 BB/9. That’s in line with is career BB/9 of 2.92. 其次，Penny 的 BB/9於去年暴涨至 3.99，明显指出他的手伤可能也连带影响了控球。今 年的 Penny也找回攻击好球袋的能力，BB/9下降到 2.87，与他生涯平均 2.92相去不远。 Third, Penny has posted a slightly better than league average FIP in the American League (a tougher offensive league than the NL because of the DH) and has been worth +2.1 WAR on the season. You could probably shave a few points off of his 4.48 FIP if he transitioned to the NL. 第三，Penny 的 FIP在美联众家投手中称得上略优，本季他贡献了+2.1的 WAR。考量美联 拥有火力强大的DH群，他的 4.48 FIP在国联当仍有下降空间。 What’s killed Penny this year has been, primarily, two things. He has had terrible luck at stranding runners on base. His LOB% currently stands at 64.4%. That’s the 2nd lowest LOB% in baseball. For comparison, Matt Cain has stranded over 85% of the runners he’s allowed on base this year. That’s the best LOB% in baseball. The league average for LOB% tends to hover around 70% and often pitchers will look worse (or much better) because they’ve either had really good or bad luck at stranding runners. If you adjusted Penny closer to a 70% LOB%, he’s going to look a bit better. 本季 Penny的受挫基本上可归咎於两大主因。由於负运使然，他无法把跑者留在垒上，他 的 64.4% LOB%排名全大联盟第二低。相对而言，Matt Cain的残垒率竟超过 85%，领先全 联盟。联盟平均残垒率大约在 70%上下震荡，投手们由於运气或好或恶，帐面数据也随之 起伏。而如果将 Penny的残垒率调整到 70%，他的数字就好看多了。 In addition to his LOB problems, Penny’s curveball has been absolutely crushed this year by opposing hitters. By Fangraphs’ pitch-type linear values, Penny’s curveball has been worth -16 runs (or about -1.6 wins). That ’s easily the worst curveball in the majors among starters by the linear weights metric. Quickly eyeballing Penny’s PFX numbers, his curveball appears to have the same vertical break that it’s always had. He’s throwing it at the same velocity, too. Penny’s curveball has always played as an average pitch for him. Check out the run values on it during the past 5 seasons: -3.2, 0.8, 1.1, 0.8, and -16 runs. Which number looks out of place? 从他的残垒问题再谈下去，Penny 的曲球今年被打者轰了个七荤八素。Fangraphs 的球种 价值呈现 Penny的曲球，价值-16 runs （大约-1.6 wins）。这是所有大联盟先发投手中 最好攻击的一颗球。快速检阅一下 Penny的 PFX数字，这颗曲球的变化品质一如往常，速 度也与过去彷佛。以往这颗曲球是 Penny平均水准的武器，看看过去五季它的run values ：-3.2， 0.8， 1.1， 0.8，以及-16 runs。哪个数字是极端值呢？ So, we’ve got a pitcher that’s pitched like a league average pitcher in a tougher offensive league. He’s regained some velocity on his fastball. He’s had poor luck with stranding runners. And a pitch that was previously a solid pitch for him, has rated as the worst pitch in baseball for that pitch type. To me, it seems like Penny has good upside to take a chance on. He would slot into the Giants rotation as the 5th starter by replacing Joe Martinez. The Giants could then send Martinez to the bullpen to pitch in a long relief role. The Giants would improve their rotation and bullpen with one aquisition — Miller or Merkin Valdez would most likely get pushed out of the bullpen. Ideally, the Giants would improve their hitting over the last stage of this season, but if an upgrade like Penny presents itself, I think you’ve got to take advantage of it. 那麽，我们看到一位在强力美联投出联盟平均水准的投手。他的球速渐渐回来了。他的制 造残垒的运气衰得惊人。而他那颗一向稳健的武器球今年人人打得顺手。对我而言 Penny 的前景似乎会越来越好。他可以取代 Joe Martinez 在巨人轮值圈中扛起五号位。球队可 将 Martinez送到牛棚当长中继，也许挤掉 Miller或 Merkin Valdez，先发与後援都得到 升级。理想状况下，巨人在最後阶段应该补强攻击火力，但如果天上掉下来 Penny，哪有 不拣的道理？ I hate myself for saying it but, sign Brad Penny. 我痛恨自己说出这句话，但，请签下 Brad Penny。 --

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