※ [本文转录自 MLB 看板 #1P6mt_fB ] 作者: ygjhsu (杰) 看板: MLB 标题: [外电] 洛矶为何能暂居国西龙头？ 时间: Tue May 16 22:34:32 2017 洛矶这一个半月的好表现，想必让很多球迷感到意外。但其实在季前， FanGraphs就有一篇文章，在讨论洛矶队今年其实是有机会冲击外卡的, 有兴趣的板友可以参考这篇: Maybe the Rockies Are Contenders in 2017 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/maybe-the-rockies-are-contenders-in-2017/ 今天我想翻译的这篇是最近刚出，针对Rockies这一个半月能持续站在国西首位所做的 分析。令人意外的是，素来以打击见长的洛矶队，今年到目前的打击表现，只能用差强 人意形容。反而是靠着年轻先发投手，撑起了一片天，再加上去年季後大力补强的牛棚 成功建起坚强的防线。而这甚至是在一二号投手(Gray&Bettis) 缺席的状况下发生的 事情！今年的洛矶能走到哪里呢? 我个人虽然是洛矶迷，却也不敢太过期待。毕竟 前几年开季火热、明星赛後就鸟掉的例子也不是没有。更何况道奇实力依然坚强， 目前看来，还是分区冠军的最大热门。洛矶合理的预期，大概还是抢外卡吧！(希望被打脸 以下正文开始： : Here’s How the Rockies Are Winning the West 洛矶为何能暂居国西龙头？ : by Jeff Sullivan - May 11, 2017 : The Rockies were this offseason’s popular dark horse. Not everybody agreed : on that, naturally, but if they did, then the Rockies wouldn’t have been a : very good dark-horse candidate. A team has to be rated low in order to be : underrated, and there was plenty of chatter the Rockies could surprise and : push for the wild card. The FanGraphs community determined the preseason : projections were too low on the club, so coming in, there was a certain amount : of hype. There was faith! Faith in the Colorado Rockies. 提到去年季後补强的黑马，很多人会想到洛矶队。当然，不是每个人都同意，但既然很多 人都认为洛矶是黑马，那洛矶其实就不算黑马罗。因为，要当黑马的条件之一，首先就 是要被大部分人看扁，但时不时就能听到洛矶其实有实力让大家惊艳，有可能竞逐外卡。 FanGraphs写手们得承认，季前战绩预测时，的确低估了这支球队(译注:79W83L) 所以接下来，我们当然会有点矫枉过正罗！要多一点信心嘛！洛矶今年拿冠军！ : Among the things that have happened: Ian Desmond got hurt. Tom Murphy got hurt. : Tony Wolters got hurt. Jon Gray got hurt. David Dahl got hurt. And Chad Bettis : got sick. Over the course of the last few months, the Rockies roster has been : beaten and battered. And it’s also managed to win 22 of 35 games. At this : writing, it’s the Rockies who are on top of the NL West, and it’s the Rockies : who have so substantially boosted their own chances of making the playoffs. : For the first time in so many years, the Rockies could be delivering on their : promise. There are two major reasons why they are where they are. 想想今年洛矶发生了哪些事：Ian Desmond受伤、Tom Murphy受伤、Tony Wolters受伤、 Jon Gray受伤、David Dahl受伤...更可怕的是Chad Bettis癌症复发，离开球场去做化疗 过去这几个月，洛矶25人名单可说是命运多舛，不断遭受打击。即便如此，这支球队依然 在35场比赛中拿下了22场胜利。在我写这篇文章的当下，国西龙头正是科罗拉多洛矶队。 也正是洛矶这支球队，去年季後大张旗鼓、招兵买马来提高自己球队进季後赛的机率。 这麽多年来第一次，这支球队有机会重返荣耀。为什麽他们今年可以这麽强呢？ 以下我们提出两个主要原因。 : Interestingly enough, this doesn’t have a lot to do with the hitters. There : have been some bright spots, like the suddenly fascinating Mark Reynolds, but : the Rockies rank just 13th in runs per game, and that’s without adjusting for : ballpark. By wRC+, the Rockies are a woeful 27th, and although I’m open to : the idea that wRC+ is unfair to the Rockies’ bats, they still haven’t been : good, not overall. The story of the season to date is all about run prevention. 首先有趣的是，今年洛矶的强大跟打者并没有太大的关系。的确，打线里有些亮点，像是 突然复活的风扇哥Mark Reynolds，但是摊开数据看，洛矶在大联盟的场均得分排在第13 名，这还是没有考虑球场校正的结果呢。如果以校正过的wRC+来看，洛矶打线只能在30支 球队里排在第27位。虽然我觉得wRC+有可能对洛矶打者不太公平(译注：应是指park factor稀释了球员的成绩？有错请指正) 但Rockies打击表现的确不太出色。本季洛矶精彩 篇章全部都跟防止失分(投手)有关。 译注: wRC+数据计算与解读可参考Xavier大的这篇好文 http://channel.pixnet.net/sport/carticle/baseball/Peavy/43927600 : On that side of things, the Rockies rank 14th in runs allowed per game. Taking : ballpark into account, the Rockies shoot all the way up to second in baseball : in ERA-. This is a staff that hasn’t had Gray or Bettis. It’s a staff that : intended to lean on Gray and Bettis. The reinforcements and the existing : support system have done the job, and as a critical component of this, there : are the grounders. The Rockies have been giving up grounders. 关於防止失分这方面，洛矶在全大联盟场均失分排名第14。考虑球场因素的话，洛矶的 ERA-马上就爆冲到MLB第二。这还是在一二号投手Gray, Bettis缺席的状况下所缴出的 成绩呢！洛矶补上空位的投手跟球队後勤的确做得很棒，其中一个关键的因素是， 让打者击出滚地球。Rockies投手今年就是能不断制造滚地球。 : Here’s how the Rockies’ pitching-staff grounder rate has progressed year to : year: 以下是洛矶逐年投手群制造滚地球的比例 (译注：Ground Ball Percentage (GB%) = 滚地球 / 所有击出的球，不考虑三振) http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/grounder-rate.png : The team has reached a new high within the observed window, and this is the : highest team grounder rate in the game. Obviously, when you’re talking about : Coors Field, there’s reason to believe it’s better for a pitching staff to : keep the ball on the ground. Anything in the air is dangerous. Some credit goes : to Kyle Freeland. Also guys like Tyler Chatwood and Chris Rusin. Plenty of : grounders have been there, which makes the next plot all the more encouraging. 在目前球季才进行不到1/4的区间，这支球队GB%创下队史新高。同时，也是目前大联盟 团队GB%最高的球队。当然，当你的球队有一半的比赛在裤儿湿球场Coors Field比赛时， 有着能让球儿留在地面上的投手群，当然是件好事罗。在这个球场，任何飞球都很危险 在这傲人数据背後，一部份要归功於Kyle Freeland，Tyler Chatwood跟长中继Chris Rusin这三个投手。大量滚地球的出现，会让下一张即将出现的图表，变得更让人振奋 : You might not recognize sOPS+ as a statistic. That’s something tracked at : Baseball-Reference, and it's essentially OPS+ within a given split. Let's look : at opponent production against the Rockies on grounders: 你们可能不认识 sOPS+这个数据，这是在BR网站上挖到的。简单来说就是某种特定条件下 的OPS+。来看看洛矶让对手击出滚地球状况下的数据： http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/sops-grounders.png : An sOPS+ of 100 is league average. Last year, when the Rockies got grounders, : they allowed an sOPS+ of 107. That means they were something like 7% worse than : average. This year, so far, that number has dropped to 71, meaning they've : been something like 29% better than average. To put this much more simply: The : Rockies have generated more grounders, and they’ve been much better at : turning those grounders into outs. sOPS+ 100是联盟平均。去年，当洛矶投手让对手击出滚地球，对手的sOPS+是107。这可以 看成这些投手的表现比平均差了7%。今年到目前为止，这个数据掉到了71，代表的意义 好像是他们比平均好上29个百分点呢! 一言以蔽之，今年洛矶队让打者击出更多的滚地球 而且这些滚地球被转化成出局数的机率也大大提高了。 : That’s a fun thing to explore. I’ll borrow some information from Baseball : Savant. Here’s where the Rockies have ranked in average ground-ball exit : velocity: 这是个值得探讨的事情。我从Baseball Savant网站捞到的数据，呈现出洛矶队这三年来 被击出滚地球的速度，在大联盟球队里的排名： 2015: 19th 2016: 14th 2017: 2nd : To support that, from a different source, here’s where the Rockies have ranked : in ground-ball hard-hit rate: 为了证实这个进步，我从另一个网站取得了这三年洛矶队被击出强劲滚地球的比例， 在大联盟球队里的排名： 2015: 23rd 2016: 20th 2017: 2nd : Based on the evidence we have, the grounders have been more weakly hit. : I don't know how to explain that, necessarily, but that doesn't mean it's : wrong or impossible to keep up. For now, it's just a thing. And there's this : other interesting data point, regarding the defense. Better performance on : grounders would probably involve the pitchers and the defenders, right? Last : season, the Rockies ranked 8th in defensive shifts. This season, they rank 27th : They’re having fewer alignments being classified as shifted, and while that : might seem counterintuitive, last year the Cubs had fewer alignments classified : as a shift than anyone. It doesn’t mean defenders aren't still being used : well. The Rockies have had many of the same players, but they’ve done better, : and they’ve been positioned differently. So far, the synergy of it all has : been through the roof. 从证据来看，被击出的滚地球的确变得不强劲了。如果硬要我说，我也不知道该怎麽解释 但这并不表示这是错的，或是无法维持。现在你们就姑且看看吧！再说说另一个跟防守有 关的有趣数据。看起来，洛矶队让对手击出软弱滚地球出局，这显然跟投手野手都有关， 对吧？上个赛季，洛矶布阵次数排名大联盟第8。至於这个球季呢，他们只排在吊车尾的27 这代表他们的防守站位比较不会极端到被判定为"布阵"。这看起来好像跟我们想的不太 一样，但看看小熊队，他们几乎没在布阵的，布阵次数比大联盟任何一支球队都少。我想 说的是，布阵少不代表防守球员没被摆在正确的位置上。去年跟今年的洛矶球员，基本上 没有太大的变化，但他们被摆在了球场的不同地方，而且得到了更好的结果。到目前为止 ，这些零零总总的改变，造就了洛矶队看似不可能的战力提升。 : That’s one thing. One major reason why the Rockies are in first place is : because they've gotten grounders and swallowed them up. Then there's the matter : of the bullpen. The bullpen is the other major reason. I like to look at how : bullpens fare through the lens of Win Probability Added. Let’s examine some : year-to-year Rockies ranks, shall we? 这就是我想讲的第一点。第一个目前让洛矶能站在国西首位的主要原因：大量让打者出局 的滚地球。再来就要提到牛棚，牛棚就是另一个主要因素。在分析牛棚强度时，我喜欢从 牛棚上场时，能让球队增加多少赢球机率(WPA)做为判定的标准。现在，就让我们来看看 这几年洛矶队的排名吧！来吧！ http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/bullpen-wpa-rank.png : To make sure you're reading that correctly: Last year, the Rockies bullpen : had baseball’s worst WPA. It was the least valuable bullpen in the game. So : far this year, the Rockies bullpen has baseball’s best WPA. It’s been the : most valuable bullpen in the game, and it’s not even all that close. Because : it’s only May 11, it’s not like we can reach any firm conclusions, but in : case you’re curious, we’ve got WPA data stretching all the way back to 1974. : Only one team’s bullpen has ever gone from worst to first, and that was the : 2008 Rays. That Rays team ultimately advanced to the World Series. The Rockies : would have a very limited precedent, and a very promising one. 确保你没看错：去年洛矶的牛棚WPA这项数据在大联盟敬陪末座，代表他们去年牛棚是全大 联盟最火的。今年到目前为止，他们却在WPA拿下第一，也就是MLB最坚强的铁牛阵。而且 他们可是遥遥领先呢!当然现在才五月中，讲这些还言之过早。但提供一个有意思的个案， 当我们回顾历史，从1974年之後，只有一支球队的牛棚能从最後一名变成第一名，那就是 2008年的光芒队(!!) 还记得那只最後打进世界大赛的光芒队吗？这样本数对洛矶来说不太 够，但却又让人非常期待呢！ 译注：WPA大联盟排名 查不到是否为纯RP数据?待更正 http://i.imgur.com/FvhYPIN.png : The Rockies bullpen always looked intriguing. It was going to hinge on getting : healthy versions of Greg Holland, Jake McGee, and Adam Ottavino. So far, so : good, mostly. And the front office also threw Mike Dunn into the mix. Those : four relievers are the four relievers on the team who've entered with average : leverage indices of 1 or higher. I decided to do a league-wide browse, looking : at how all the teams have performed when narrowing down to only the relievers : meeting the same criteria. These are the relievers teams have trusted the most : We know the Rockies rank first in WPA to date. Just looking at the : higher-leverage guys, the Rockies relievers are 4th in ERA- and 4th in FIP-. : They’re also just 12th in xFIP-, so a few homers could make things worse, but : you can't assume homers until they happen. The group looks pretty good, and : it's already been great. 洛矶牛棚看起来豪猛啊！关键在於他们拿到的是健康版的Greg Holland, Jake McGee跟 Adam Ottavino (译注:三个RP过去都蛮痛的Orz) 目前他们都能健康出赛，大致上来说啦! 除了这三个猛牛之外，Rockies FO还签下了强力左牛Mike Dunn。这四位後援投手就是关键 时刻会上场的RP罗！为了看看这个组合到底算不算强，我决定把调查范围限缩到只在平均 LI>1的状况下会上场的後援投手上。这些就是球队最信赖的牛棚战力了。我们前面提到， 洛矶在WPA这项数据名列第一，如果只看关键时刻的牛棚战力，他们分别在ERA-跟FIP-排在 第四名, xFIP-却只排在第12。所以这样看来，如果洛矶牛棚多被尻几发HR，他们的数据 就不会这麽漂亮(代表FIP-与xFIP-趋势相同)，不过，总不能假设投手会被打全垒打吧！ 总之，这些牛棚看起来很棒，他们现在已经很杰出了。 关於xFIP- FIP- 同样可参考这篇Xavier大的文章： http://peavy.pixnet.net/blog/post/43034428 : Performance through five weeks has only a limited relationship to performance : the rest of the way. Nothing for the Rockies is going to come easy, and : they're going to need to hit a little more than they have. They're probably : going to allow more home runs, and the bullpen is going to mix in the : occasional clunker. But you can see why things are looking up. The relievers : have delivered on their preseason promise. And despite the adversity with the : state of the starting rotation, the pitchers the Rockies have had have churned : out a bunch of grounders, and the defense has been good about handling them. : This is a Rockies team you have to take more seriously than others from the : past few seasons. They might not be all the way there yet. There's plenty of : room for improvement. But considering the storm they've had to weather, things : couldn’t have gone much better than they have. 五周的好表现跟整季好表现关系不大。对洛矶队来说，没有什麽事情是容易做到的，他们 的打者必须打地更好一些。投手很有可能在主场被多打一些全垒打，牛棚也势必会砸个 几场。但看完我们这篇文章，你应该能明白现在他们强在哪里了。牛棚达成季前的期待。 虽然先发轮值总要在逆境中求生，他们却总能制造出想要的滚地球，守备也能顺利处理。 跟前几年相比，这会是一只你必须认真看待的Rockies。他们可能还离目标很远，很有很多 缺点待改进。但想想他们这一路上遭遇到的不顺遂，我相信他们现在已经做的够棒了。 --

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