小弟在Purple Row看到一篇写BABIP的文章 还蛮有意思的，试着翻看看，如果有错误请协助指 May 2013 Rockies xBABIP and associated thoughts. http://goo.gl/zX5zL xBABIP的一些联想 So now that the calendar has turned over to May, I though it might be a good time to post the current xBABIP calculations for the Rockies as well as their related adjusted stats. If you have read any of my previous posts from last year or this, I'd encourage you to read my April post so you have an idea of how I arrive at these calculations. I'll spend more of this post discussing implications of the data. 五月了，是适合讨论球员 "现今xBABIP计算值" 与 "统计值" 的时後了， 如果你之前有看我的文章的话，我鼓励你看我四月的文章， 如此你会些概念我如何得到这些计算值，我会在这篇讨论这些资料 To start it off here's the players BABIP chart. Name BABIP xBABIP cBABIP dBABIP Reid Brignac 0.333 0.300 0.290 0.033 Chris Nelson 0.333 0.314 0.342 0.019 Wilin Rosario 0.375 0.394 0.299 -0.019 Carlos Gonzalez 0.360 0.307 0.348 0.053 Eric Young 0.354 0.339 0.324 0.015 Todd Helton 0.294 0.316 0.332 -0.022 Dexter Fowler 0.338 0.341 0.352 -0.003 Troy Tulowitzki 0.303 0.297 0.313 0.006 Jordan Pacheco 0.392 0.359 0.343 0.033 Michael Cuddyer 0.346 0.382 0.306 -0.036 Josh Rutledge 0.250 0.331 0.297 -0.081 xBABIP = expected BABIP, cBABIP = Career BABIP, dBABIP =BABIP - xBABIP 我们从这个表开始，xBABIP是预期值、cBABIP是生涯值、dBABIP为BABIP减xBABIP So let's first look at a few players who are absolutely destroying the ball, Cuddyer and Rosario. These two Rockies are carrying the highest xBABIP. This generally means they are hitting the ball the hardest. Now, they are both carrying a negative dBABIP which would normally say they're being unlucky, however chances are better their xBABIP will normalize to their cBABIP as they cool off from a hot April, then they'll maintain an xBABIP that high long enough for a normalization of BABIP to xBABIP. So the verdict on these two is: expect a regression, not because of luck but just because they will cool off, however they'll still have respectable numbers. 先来看不停把球打进场内的Cuddyer and Rosario 这两位的xBABIP值最高，说明他们球打的最结实 但他两位的dBABIP是负值，意味着他们也比较不幸运 然而他们的xBABIP将会修正至它们的cBABIP，也就是四月後手感会较冷 然後他们会维持xBABIP的高档到BABIP修正至xBABIP 所以预期他们成绩下修，但不是因为运气是因为手感较冷 但还是有打出该有的表现 Next is Tulowitzki and Fowler, two Rockies who are performing about as you'd expect, based on their dBABIP being very close to 0 while also performing near their career numbers. It is tough to predict much here for these two, they could stay steady or go on a hot streak or cold streak as baseball players are prone to do before normalizing again. 接着是Tulo与小花，两为表现的符合你我预 用他们的dBABIP接近零来说明，就是表现的和生涯成绩相当 所以他们可以会打出一波高潮，也可能陷入低潮 Carlos Gonzalez and Jordan Pacheco have the highest positive dBABIP's suggesting they're being the luckiest right now. For Pacheco, I'd expect a regression from because his BABIp is not just astronomically high but his xBABIP and cBABIP and both fairly close together suggesting that's about what to expect from him. Carlos, on the other hand, is a little more interesting of a case study. His xBABIP is a lot lower then his actual BABIP which suggests he's been pretty lucky so far this spring. However, Carlos' BABIP is pretty close to his cBABIP which is normally a very good predictive tool for season totals. I'd predict that we're going to see him starting to hit the ball harder and raising up his xBABIP but the results won't be a lot different then what we are seeing right now. 卡刚和波切口有最高正值的dBABIP，说明他们现在是运气最好的两位 波切口，我预测他会下修是因为他的BABIP高於xBABIP与cBABIP，而x与c两值又相近 卡刚的状况比较特别，他的xBABIP远低於真实的BABAIP，说明他四月运气很好 但BABIP又和cBABIP相近，而cBABIP是一个预测整季成积的好工具 所以我预测他会把球打的更接实，上修他的xBABIP，不过结果和目前看的会相去不远~ This only leaves 1 player that I want to discuss today, Josh Rutledge. Rutledge is by far the unluckiest Rockies player carrying a -0.081 dBABIP, his cBABIP is low but with a young player it's not quite as useful of a tool, mostly because his low BABIP this spring has a big hit on that career total because of his low number of career late appearances. So instead let's look at some of his season totals to get an idea for what his cBABIP might be. 最後我只再讨论罗莉，他是最不幸的球员，dBABIP只有-0.081 他的cBABIP低，不过年轻球员看这个并不是这麽准 因为这个春天的低BABIP拉低了为数不多的生涯打席 等这季打完再来看cBABIP也不迟 In 2011 Rutledge had a .414 in Modesto, 2012 .345 in Tulsa and .315 in his MLB debut season. Now minor league BABIP is inflated because of poorer pitching defense but still it gives us a picture that he should be a moderately high BABIP hitter at least. This also passes the eye test with his blazing speed to first base. Overall this paints a picture of Rutledge being my candidate for a breakout month of May. He's maintained good approach, hitting the ball well and increasing is BB rate dramatically. If he keeps this up while BABIP normalizes out expect a May similar to Fowler's May last year. 罗莉在2011於A+打出.411， 在2012於AA打出.345且於MLB打出.315 在小联盟夸张的BABIP是因为较少的打数， 不过至少仍能看出他应该是个高BABIP的打者， 而且他到一垒的速度飞快， 所以我觉得他在五月会是个黑马、亮点 他维持好的打击和增加保送，上修BABIP到小花去年五月的值(是多少呀!?) I've already been quite wordy in this post so I'm just going to leave you with one last table. This one show the players current splits and next to the splits they'd have if they were hitting their xBABIP number instead of their actual BABIP. 说的有点多，我最後秀一个表，是关於一些特定打击数据， 在球员现有的BABIP的数据，与打成xBABIP之後的数据 (不附上，请参考网页 http://goo.gl/NZFcK ) --

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