Who’s going to close games when Huston Street gets hurt? 街哥受伤的话，谁来关门? : Only seven current closers have more career saves than Street. He has proven : himself as valuable an entity to Colorado as any other player on the roster. : Street had pro scouts salivating as he won College World Series MVP honors : while playing for Texas. He would then wow us in 2005 when he won the : American League Rookie of the Year award as a member of the Oakland : Athletics. His skills are evident as you watch his low 90s fastball tail : through the zone. He pitches with great poise and often can overpower : hitters. In 2009, he saved 35 of 37 games in which he closed. 现役球员中，只有七个投手的救援次数比Street多(注1) 他已经证明自己在裤儿湿的能力 在大学时代，Street就让球探流尽口水，同时也拿下了美国联盟2005年新人王。 他的球路充满尾劲，虽然速球只有low-90s，依然能让打者摸不着头绪。 2009年，37个救援机会中，Street只砸锅2次。 : Last season was a different story. He had a late start while dealing with a : multitude of injuries. We saw his ERA creep back up to 3.61. Over his : six-year career he has spent over 160 days on the disabled list. He is now : the prototypical health risk at just 27 years old. 上一季又是另外一回事。在好不容易克服伤痛复出後，我们看到他的ERA飙高到3.61。 超过六年的职业生涯，Street待在DL的时间超过160天。 以27岁的年龄来说，他显然有很容易受伤的风险。 : The Rockies must concern themselves with how to prepare for a possible : stretch of time without their talented closer. As we examine their roster, : there’s Franklin Morales who has notched 10 career saves and has the stuff : to close. But what he has in skills, he will always screw up in his command : of his pitches. He has never really been as successful as most thought he : could be when he and Jimenez burst onto the scene in 2007. 因此，洛矶队必须考虑到没有Street在场上的状况。看了看25人名单，我们发现Franklin Morales具有Closer的资质，同时也有终结者的经验。但是我们也知道，他有控球上的问题 从他跟UBall同时在07年登上大联盟的舞台，Morales从来没有达到人们对他的期待。 : What about Matt Lindstrom? Well he has 43 saves scattered over the past three : years, including 23 last year as a member of the Houston Astros. Most would : assume that the signing of Lindstrom was Plan B to Street. 林风暴呢? 他过去三年也有43次救援成功啊! 许多人认为，签下林风暴，就是球团有考虑 到Street有可能会受伤。 : I know the Rockies don’t put much importance in my opinion, but I hope I’m : not the only one who sees the potential of Rafael Betancourt. I know he’s : 35, but he doesn’t walk anybody and strikes out well more than a batter an : inning (89 Ks in 62 innings pitched last year). If I’m the manager and I’m : looking over this list of relievers. I would always stop on Betancourt. He : has the skills to be Street's understudy. Let’s hope there’s no need for : such a job, but Betancourt should be more than capable. 我知道洛矶球团不太重视我的意见，但是我希望我不是那个唯一看出Betancourt潜力的人 他35岁了，但是他不投四坏，三振率又超高(去年89K/62IP) 如果我是总教练，从我今年所 有的投手中，我一定会挑Betancourt。他可以当Street的备胎。 虽然我们不希望这种事发生，但是Betancourt一定能轻松胜任。 Are the Rockies still fun even with a humidor? 有了保湿器，洛矶比赛还有趣吗? : For years we, the baseball fandom, have been fed propaganda proclaiming the : humidor as the answer to the home run haven of Coors Field. Anyone who has : read The Hardball Times Handbook 2011 may have a different feeling. Our boss : and essayist Dave Studeman detailed evidence displaying that last year may : have actually debunked the theory that a humidor has cured Coors of its : propensity for pop. 长久以来，我们都以为保湿器可以解决裤儿湿容易被干炮的问题。不过如果看了 "The Hardball Times Handbook 2011"这本书，或许你会有不一样的感受。 我们的老板跟专栏作家，详述了各种证据，说明保湿器并不如你想的那样 可以让飞球飞得没那麽远。 : First, I don’t think most people know what the "humidor" actually is, and : how it affects the game in Denver. The humidor is a room within Coors where : the baseballs are kept. This room mimics the environment in which the : baseballs are made and stored in other locations. Since the air is so thin in : the Mile High City, humidity’s effect or lack thereof is the foremost reason : most use to explain why balls fly out of there like school children to recess. 首先，我想大部分人都不知道"保湿器"这玩意到底是什麽，更别说如何影响比赛。 保湿器事实上是裤儿湿球场的一个房间，负责保存比赛用球。 这个房间要维持住棒球制造与保存在其他地方的环境。换言之，既然高海拔的空气稀薄 湿度的影响与其缺乏，就变成解释为什麽飞球在裤儿湿总像脱缰野马的主要原因。 : Recently Alan Nathan, a physicist, wrote a guest article for Baseball : Prospectus on the subject. Apparently, Arizona is considering a humidor for : its Chase Field to copy the success of the Coors Field humidor. It is a : fascinating read. 不过，最近有一个物理学家，写了一篇讨论这个问题的文章。里面提到Arizona也想为他们 的Chase Field盖一座相似的"保湿器"。这篇文章很有意思。 : One important facet to interpreting the validity of statistics is sample : size. For example, if I took the final month of 2010 as my projection basis : for evaluating players for 2011, then Tulowitzki would be the best player in : the game, followed closely behind by Mike Aviles. 解读数据的时候，一定要看样本数的大小。如果我拿去年最後一个月的数据来预测球员今 年的表现，Tulowitzki一定是最棒的，跟在他後面谁呢，Mike Aviles。 : In his evaluation of park factors, Dave Studeman pointed out that we should : not place our faith in one year’s worth of data in determining park effects, : but he also pointed out that the increase in home runs at Coors Field in 2010 : could be signaling several things. Either the data used to anoint the humidor : as the answer to home runs didn't use a large enough sample size (years) to : make an accurate determination of its success or that 2010’s 1.50 home run : ratio was an aberration, and we can expect a correction soon. Either way the : jury must still be out on whether treating baseballs like a Cohiba is really : working. 前面提到的棒球专栏作家，在解读park factor的时候，他指出我们不应该看一年的球场 成绩来决定park factor。但是他也说，2010年裤儿湿全垒打产量的增加可能意味着什麽 即使是检验保湿器是否成功的数据，样本数也不够大。让我们无法看出，2010年的单场 1.5支全垒打，是否只是短暂的偏差，终究还是会回归正常。无论如何，目前要判断 这种把棒球像Cohida雪茄一样放在humidor(humidor也可指雪茄盒)的做法是否合宜 还言之过早。 : I, for one, enjoy the park factors. I am enamored by the Green Monster at : Fenway, the short porch in New York, and the windiness of Chicago. That’s : the unpredictability that we love about baseball. Coors Field should embrace : its power prowess as all parks should embrace their own unique identities. No : other sport has all the different venues that we enjoy in baseball, and : because of that, no other sport has the "hallowed grounds" of an epic : ballpark. 以我个人来说，我喜欢各个球场都有不同的特性。我喜欢Fenway的绿色怪物、纽约的浅右 外野墙，还有芝加哥的风。这就是棒球的迷人之处：不可预测性。裤儿湿应该以打者天堂 自居，就像其他球场各有其特色。其他运动都不像棒球如此多变迷人，而且正因为如此 也不会有其他运动像棒球场一样还会有"hallowed grounds"的存在。 注1: 他们分别是Mariano Rivera(559)、Francisco Cordero(290)、 Francisco Rodriguez (268)、Brad Lidge (222)、Jose Valverde(193)、 Jonathan Papelbon (188)、Brian Fuentes(187)跟Bobby Jenks (173) 应该是8位 --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 220.134.179.129 ※ 编辑: ygjhsu 来自: 220.134.179.129 (04/02 13:41) ※ 编辑: ygjhsu 来自: 220.134.179.129 (04/02 13:42)