※ [本文转录自 MLB 看板] 作者: YGJHSU (杰) 看板: MLB 标题: 2010 Five questions: Colorado Rockies 时间: Sun Apr 4 16:25:53 2010 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-colorado-rockies4/ Five questions: Colorado Rockies by John Barten March 29, 2010 For most of the history of the franchise, anybody who was writing this yearly article had one easy bullet point for their summation. Of course the low hanging fruit I am referring to is better known as Coors Field. Be it caused by a humidor, weather patterns, changes to the park, or a voodoo priest, the park has somewhat stabilized as a very good park for hitters, but not quite the launching pad it was a decade ago. It inflates run-scoring rates by a mere 7 to 10 percent rather than the 20 to 30 percent it used to be. 每年写洛矶队的专栏几乎都会归纳出一个重点：那就是人称”裤儿湿”的洛矶主场。 不过，近来来因为棒球保湿器的使用、球场与天气型态的改变、甚至靠着神秘的巫毒祭 司(注1)，让裤儿湿即使还是对打者有利的球场，却不像十年前炮声隆隆如发射台一般。 它让球赛得分速率加快了7到10个百分点，而不是之前的20到30。 (注1):这边不太懂他的典故...或许单纯是指某种神秘力量?! Nobody is asking anymore if it is possible to build a winner in such an extreme environment. The Rockies have won 90 games in two of the last three years. In those two seasons, they have finished midpack in runs allowed. So I don’t see this as a particularly compelling story anymore, despite the fact that I just dedicated enough words to the subject for it to have actually counted as one of my “five questions” had I felt the urge to include it. 如果以这种极端的场地当主场，都可以打造一支常胜军，你还能多要求什麽? 落矶过去三 年里有两年打出90胜以上的成绩。在这两季(07跟09年)里，投手群的掉分在联盟排中段班 即使球场的因素让我不得不花一个问题的篇幅去说明，我仍然觉得：问题不大。 Question one: Can this team make the playoffs WITHOUT a crazy second-half run? 第一问：如果不靠下半季爆走，这支球队打的进季後赛吗? We all remember the Rox’s magical 2007 season. It featured a .714 September that got them into the playoffs with a one-game playoff against the Padres to get the wild card. They then swept the Phillies and Diamondbacks to get to the World Series before they were shot down by the Red Sox in similarly decisive fashion. 我们都记得洛矶的07年惊奇之旅。九月份打出.714的胜率，让洛矶得以靠加赛击败教士队 ，拿下国联外卡进入季後赛。接下来就更神奇了，他们接连横扫费城人及响尾蛇，闯进世 界大赛，不过随後也被红袜压倒性地4:0横扫，结束这神奇的一季。 Last year’s team had a similarly shaped season with the Rockies making a dramatic run, culminating in a .667 September. Their best run was actually in June, when they won 17 of 18 starting June 4 and ending on June 22. 去年洛矶卷土重来，戏剧性地又在九月打出.667的胜率。在六月份甚至18场球里只输过一 场。 Is there something inherent about the way that these two rosters were constructed that enabled them to run off huge streaks? Or is this something that isn’t all that rare with 90- and 92-win teams and the late-season timing of the September runs make them more memorable than streaks that other very good teams made in May or July? 纠竟，让洛矶能在这两年演出下半季爆走的戏码，跟他们建军的策略有何关联? 还是这对 一支能拿90跟92胜的球队来说，其实并不算罕见。而且，我们是不是总是会记得那些拉尾 盘的队伍，反倒不记得球季初就很猛的劲旅? Question Two: Should Troy Tulowitzki be a trendy darkhorse MVP candidate? 第二问：Troy Tulowitzki 能否成为MVP黑马? It’s a sucker bet to lay down your chips on anybody not named Albert Pujols winning the MVP. And you can’t walk down the street anymore without running into a sabermetrician waiting to tell you how hideously overlooked Chase Utley is. And there are great reasons for both of these things. Pujols is the best player in the game. And Utley has been the best player on the last two NL champs and he is better than teammates Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard, both of whom have MVP trophies. Utley and Pujols are practically perfect players, the best hitters in the league, the best defenders at their positions in baseball, and excellent baserunners. 如果你不赌美国高国庆(Albert Pujols)拿下国联MVP，雨刷一定会笑你好傻好天真。随便 走在路上，数据达人也会等着告诉你，忍者阿特利(Chase Utley)多麽不被票选MVP的记者 重视。他们都有道理。Pujols是当今最好的棒球选手，Utley身处国联冠军队伍，表现甚 至比拿过MVP的队友(Rollins、Howard)还棒。事实上，Utley跟Pujols就是神，不仅是最 棒的打者、最棒的野手、甚至连跑垒都很有一套。 Nevertheless, it is time for Troy Tulowitzki to become a household name. He is the best player on the team by a fair amount. And he is entering what should be his peak. Given his abilities at shortstop, a guy who goes .297/.377/.552 is insanely valuable, even taking park effects into account. If he stays healthy and experiences much of any kind of growth in his age 25-29 seasons, he seems like a reasonable bet to be one of the best players in the National League. 尽管如此， 大家还是应该把Troy Tulowitzki这个名字记起来。他已经是队上最棒的球员 好一阵子了，而且正要进入生涯颠峰期呢! 加上Tulo还是游击手，就算把主场威能考虑进 去，能打出.297/.377/.552这种成绩还是好到掉渣。如果在25~29岁的球季能够维持健康 跟球技上的进步，他有可能晋身国联最佳球员之林。 Question Three: Do they have a realistic chance to be the best defensive team in the NL? 第三问：洛矶有可能成为国联最佳防守球队吗? With all apologies to the gloves of Tulowitzki, Ian Stewart, Clint Barmes, Chris Iannetta, and the still competent Todd Helton, this largely depends on a secondary question that I find to be an interesting thing to watch, which is how will the Rockies apportion playing time in the outfield among Carlos Gonzalez, Dexter Fowler, Brad Hawpe, and Seth Smith. 先向Tulowitzki、Stewart、Barmes、Iannetta、Helton一干内野手的手套说声抱歉。这 个问题其实有很大一部分要看洛矶队怎麽配置外野手(Carlos Gonzalez、Dexter Fowler 、Brad Hawpe跟Seth Smith)的上场时间，这会是一个有趣的观察重点。 Now that they have thrown Garrett Atkins overboard, the only likely regular that is an obvious achilles' heel in the field is Hawpe. It is understandable as he is what he has always been, a converted first baseman playing on an outfield corner. The less they use him in the outfield, the better they are at turning batted balls into outs. Gonzalez, Fowler, and Smith have the ability to be one of the best units in baseball at chasing down airborne baseballs. But it is easy to understand why they would continue to use him despite the defensive effects. A career .283/.377/.498 hitter is still a career .283/.377/.498 hitter. Eventually he will make somebody a wonderful DH. 既然Garrett Atkins已经琵琶别抱了，洛矶防守阵势中最大的要害很明显就是Hawpe。 由於他是从一垒转换到右外野守备，我这麽说想必大家都能明白。只要他越少上场，外野 就越能稳稳抓出局数。Gonzalez, Fowler，跟Smith追逐飞球的能力无庸置疑。但是即便 大家都知道这点，洛矶还是会继续排Hawpe先发。这太容易理解了，一个生涯交出 .283/.377/.498的打者…不管其他地方再怎麽烂还是一个.283/.377/.498的打者。 也许最後他就会转战美联打DH了吧! Question Four: Is Jorge de la Rosa for real? 第四问：Jorge de la Rosa是真货吗? Before he became Rockies property in one of the more remarkably successful waiver trades in recent memory, de la Rosa wandered around professional baseball for 10 years, flashing plus stuff, but ultimately demonstrating no extended periods of success with a 5.2 walks per 9 and 6.4 K per 9 and allowing 190 runs in 274 career major league innings. 在洛矶以近来最成功的waiver交易把de la Rosa拦入麾下之前，10年来他一直是棒球界的 浪人(注2)。拥有绝佳的球路，最终却无法延续他的胜利，这些年来的成绩是K/9=6.4、 BB/9=5.2，在274局里丢掉了190分!! 注2：de la Rosa跟陈江河一样被亚利桑那响尾蛇队签下，接下来在红袜小联盟磨练， 大联盟初登板则是在酿酒人，之後又在皇家待了一年半，随後才加入洛矶。 With the Rockies, he has been a revelation with 27 quality starts in 55 tries with greatly improved 4.1 and 9.2 walk- and strikeout-per 9 rates. If he can maintain this kind of improvement, the Rockies have a mid-rotation fixture. 穿上洛矶球衣後，他就像穿上黄色圣衣般变身火星人。在55场先发里投出27场优质先 发，同时BB/9降低变成4.1，K/9却上升到惊人的9.2。如果他能维持这种进步，洛矶的中 段轮值就不用烦恼了。 Question Five: Can Chris Iannetta hold onto the starting gig all year? 第五问：Chris Iannetta能保住整年先发的地位吗? Iannetta has a lot going for him. He is a better than average glove. He hits for power and draws a fair number of walks. He has a career 103 OPS+, which is excellent for a catcher. However, entering his age 27 season, he has yet to keep the starting spot all year. Last season he lost time to Yorvit Torrealba down the stretch as his batting average slumped and ended at .228. Despite the ugly BA, his power and patience were enough to make him a more-than-serviceable offensive catcher with a .344 OBP and .460 SLG. Iannetta的优势很多。他的防守比平均更好，能够干炮同时也能靠着四坏球上垒。他生涯 的OPS+是103，这对一个捕手来说算优异的了。不过，即将进入27岁，Iannetta却从来没 有整年都是主战捕手过。去年因为打击率只比裴翊没男友的机率高一点(.228)，先发时间 分了很多给老将Torrealba。不过不看打击率的话，交出.344上垒率跟.460长打率还是让 他比高志纲更像个攻击捕手! If he can hold his K rate in check (he fanned 75 times in 289 at bats) and recover some of his lost BABIP (.245 in ’09, .283 career), he stands a good chance of posting a career high in games played, at-bats, and most other counting stats, outrunning Miguel Olivo’s power, K’s, and NO walks. 如果他能将被三振数控制得宜(去年是289打数里75次)，同时将去年过低的BABIP(.245)拉 上来(生涯是.283)，Iannetta还是很有机会在各项攻击数据上交出生涯最佳成绩。相对於 二号捕手Miguel Olivo，Iannetta在炮火、三振数跟保送数上都略胜一筹。 Bonus Question: If Huston Street’s balky shoulder remains a problem, what happens? 加一问：如果Huston Street的玻璃肩好不了，接下来怎麽办? From a fantasy baseball angle, the answer is simply that Franklin Morales slides in and picks up some saves. But the bullpen in Denver isn’t especially deep and moving one of the few Rockies relievers up in the pecking order exposes more high leverage seventh- and eighth-inning appearances to the field of characters like Taylor Buchholz and Manny Corpas. That isn’t likely the end of the world, but it isn’t something I would be feeling good about. 以FB玩家的角度来看，这问题的答案很简单，只要把Franklin Morales捡进来，赚几个救 援点就搞定了。但是洛矶的牛棚并不是这麽人才济济。让其中一员接任终结者将会让第七 八局陷入危机，因为你必须让Buchholz或是Corpas这种中继投手上场。(编按:这两 只游戏里面很好用啊XD)这个问题不是世界末日，不过如果发生了当然也不会感到开心。 As I am writing this, Street is scheduled to throw, but has no listed time table for starting the season. MRI’s have come back clean so this may be an irrelevant question. 在我动笔的同时，Street已预定投球的日期，但尚未决定何时能回到场上。MRI显示正常 ，或许这个问题也不大。 (编按：Street开季DL，预计五月初可以回到场上) 翻译心得：今年的洛矶是支让人充满期待的球队。阵容年轻、与去年相比主力几乎完全相 同。有太多的想像可以加诸於这支球队身上。不过这篇文章中似乎给洛矶队的防守评价还 蛮高的，这跟我从中文观战指南上看到的不太一样，也许这也会是开季後的观战重点。目 前看来洛矶的投手问题远大於野手，各项攻击指标在春训联盟领先的同时，几个主力投手 (Francis、Street、Buchholz)纷纷挂伤号。当然哪队没有伤兵，不过对目前几个潜力 投手新秀(Matzek、Friederich、Chacin)尚未ready的洛矶来说，比较承担不起投手接连受 伤的影响。接下来会怎麽发展，开季就见分晓，棒球迷的冬天终於过去了!! 今年也要继续支持洛矶队!! Rox GOGOGO~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 220.134.179.129 ※ 编辑: YGJHSU 来自: 220.134.179.129 (04/04 19:51) --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 220.134.179.129