作者Tulo02 (Rockies GOGO)
看板Rockies
标题[情报] Thoughts on Jhoulys Chacin by John Sickels
时间Thu Jul 3 23:28:25 2008
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/7/3/564170/thoughts-on-jhoulys-chacin
Thinking about Jhoulys Chacin
Chacin was signed by the Rockies in 2004 out of Venezuela. He didn't get to
North American until '07, when he went 6-3, 3.13 with a 77/26 K/BB in 92
innings for Casper in the Pioneer League, allowing 85 hits. He also posted a
2.70 GO/AO ratio. Scouts were impressed with his 90-92 MPH fastball,
curveball, and changeup, although the secondary pitches were erratic and
needed to be sharpened. I had one of those good intuitive feelings about him
when I wrote the 2008 book, and I gave him a big SLEEPER ALERT! header in his
book comment, rating him as a Grade C+ pending higher level data, but a
breakthrough candidate.
Said breakthrough is in progress Chacin went 10-1, 1.86 for Asheville this
spring, with a 98/30 K/BB in 111 innings, just 82 hits and three homers
allowed, and a 2.83 GO/AO. He was just promoted to Modesto in the Cal League
and threw eight shutout innings in his first start, fanning eight with one
walk and five hits given up. His velocity has picked up further, his breaking
stuff is reportedly sharper this year, he's still getting tons of grounders,
and his command has been solid.
Gradewise I am moving him up a full rating to Grade B+ and would definitely
put him in my Top 50 Pitchers list, although I don't know exactly where yet.
The combination of a fairly high strikeout rate, lots of grounders, and
improving stuff stands out. He's also just 20 years old. About the only
negative in his profile I can see is his size: he's a smallish guy at 6-1,
180. Personally I don't care about that, but some scouts worry it could limit
his long-term projectability. In theory it is harder for a shorter pitcher to
pitch down in the zone, but it's obviously not a problem for Chacin.
He has to get through the injury nexus, of course. Lots of bad things could
happen. But Chacin taken a huge step forward this year, and has to be rated
among the best right-handed pitching prospects in the game now.
They don't get a lot of attention for it, but the Rockies seem to have a
knack for finding power arms in Latin America.
快速翻译:
Chacin是在2004年被落矶签下。
去年6-3, 3.13 with a 77/26 K/BB, 92IP, 85H, 2.70 GO/AO。90-92 MPH快速球,
另外有变速球、曲球。第二球种仍不成熟。但去年JS在他书里给他C+并认为是沈睡者
,今年很有机会有突破性发展。
今年他正在突破性发展途中,在1A 10-1, 1.86, 98/30 K/BB, 111IP, 82H, 3HRs,
2.83 GO/AO。到A+的第一场8局完封8K 1BB 5H 0R(按:中间连续解决16人)。他的速
球进步了(根据另一篇球探的说法,现在已经可以到mid-90 MPH)、变化球变犀利了,
他仍然可以获得很多滚地,控球依旧优异。
现在JS把对他的评价升到B+,并列入他的50大投手名单里。唯一的缺点是他的身材只
有6-1, 180磅,有的球探在乎身材,但JS不在乎。一般而言,矮的投手比较难将球投
到好球带下缘,但这对Chacin不是问题。
当然他还有很多难题要面对。但他今年是个大进展,他现在已经是比赛中最好的右手
投手潜力新秀之一。
他们没有获得太多注意,但是落矶总有办法能在拉丁美洲找到好货。
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◆ From: 61.229.111.226
1F:→ Tulo02:现在落矶在拉丁美洲的策略是不去跟其他人竞标大鱼 07/03 23:42
2F:推 lightring:话说 在红袜板看到讨论交易 有人说假日得成绩 07/03 23:43
3F:→ Tulo02:而是蒐罗和隐藏一些珍珠 现在看不到 过几年就会像今年的 07/03 23:43
4F:→ lightring:是在山上才会有的~ 07/03 23:43
5F:→ Tulo02:Chacin一样冒出来,其实现在短期1A还有一个很猛的拉丁美洲 07/03 23:44
6F:→ Tulo02:新秀投手 07/03 23:44
7F:→ Tulo02:OPS+是经过球场校正 Holliday去年OPS+是150 看红袜有几个 07/03 23:44
8F:→ lightring:加油呀 投手好好养 希望两三年後可以一举拿下WS冠军 07/03 23:45
9F:→ Tulo02:OPS+ 150的 不过Holliday主客场差异很大 也难怪别人说嘴 07/03 23:45
10F:→ lightring:我比较好奇 假日的主客场差异 是不管到那队都会这样 07/03 23:46
11F:→ lightring:还是真的是在山上造成的结果 07/03 23:46
12F:→ Tulo02:我想不会 但我不相信在落矶打球的客场成绩等於他在其他球 07/03 23:46
13F:→ Tulo02:实力 07/03 23:46
14F:→ Tulo02:是在山上造成的结果没错 但我觉得在山上打球会有後遗症 07/03 23:47
15F:→ Tulo02:导致客场打不好 但没有什麽实据 07/03 23:47
16F:→ Tulo02:本来我是想统计一下在落矶打球主客场差异 跟他离开落矶後ꨠ 07/03 23:47
17F:→ Tulo02:成绩作比较 不过暂时没时间 这是大工程 07/03 23:48
18F:推 lightring:确实是大工程 07/03 23:48
19F:→ Tulo02:我现在想到最名显的例子是大猫在离开落矶到勇士打球的第一 07/03 23:50
20F:→ Tulo02:年仍然有40轰 不过还得更详细比对一些数据 蛮麻烦的 07/03 23:51
21F:→ lightring:而且球员生涯本来就会有生涯年和低潮年 这也是变数 07/03 23:52
22F:→ Tulo02:是没错 我是想取道落矶前一年和到落矶第一年 还有离开落矶 07/03 23:53
23F:→ Tulo02:後一年和在落矶最後一年比较 当然要扣除有受伤问题的 07/03 23:53
24F:→ Tulo02:当然只是想想 之前有文章有在讨论这个 07/03 23:54
25F:→ Tulo02:他比对了团对在山上成绩、下山的第一场和下山的其他场 07/03 23:55
26F:→ Tulo02:结论是下山的第一场和其他场成绩没有明显落差 07/03 23:55
27F:推 lightring:嗯嗯嗯 不过我相信假日不管到那 07/04 00:02
28F:→ lightring:决对还是一名有威胁性的强打者 07/04 00:02
29F:推 rahim03:结果JS有一些事没注意到 Chacin在去年冬天长高了2英寸 增 07/04 23:29
30F:推 rahim03:加了约30磅 07/04 23:29
31F:推 rahim03:.......... 有人叫他右手的Santana 07/04 23:32
32F:推 rahim03:他们在比较的时候感觉有点扯 我们左手的葛雷诺不知道什麽 07/04 23:37
33F:推 rahim03:时候要爆发 07/04 23:37