看来我们是真的很不被看好 连THT这个一路写"为什麽落矶将击败..."的作者Geoff Young 这次写"为什麽落矶将击败红袜"(Why the Rockies will beat the Red Sox) 感觉都有点不太相信落矶真的能击败红袜 >.< 原文网址：http://0rz.tw/913bL Why the Rockies will beat the Red Sox by Geoff Young October 24, 2007 First off, I'm not sure that I believe the Rockies can beat the Red Sox. Second, I'm not sure that what I believe belongs in the equation. The Rockies seem to believe, and that could be a scary thing for the team from Boston. 首先，我不确定我相信落矶可以击败红袜。第二，我也不确定我相信的情况是属於势均力 敌的情况。落矶看来似乎这麽相信，而这对那支来自波士顿的球队可能是令人提心吊胆的 事。 Lineup 先发打线 Once again using the flawed but simple and useful metric of OPS+, here's a rundown of the starters for both clubs at each position: 再一次使用这个有缺点但简单有用的OPS+，以下是两队各位置先发的比较： Catcher Yorvit Torrealba: 76 Jason Varitek: 103 Sure, Varitek had the better offensive season, but his first name isn't Yason. Eh, who am I kidding; advantage Red Sox. 当然，Varitek今年打击比较好，但他的名字不是Yason(按：去年也有一个打击不怎麽样 捕手名字Y开头，在季後赛爆发，凑巧今年爆发的Torrealba名字也是Y开头)。嗯，我在 开玩笑；红袜占优势。 First base Todd Helton: 133 Kevin Youkilis: 117 Similar hitters, both are outstanding fielders. Youkilis' ridiculous ALCS notwithstanding, slight advantage to Rockies. 相似的打者，两个都是杰出的野手。尽管Youkilis有相当夸张的ALCS，落矶仍有些微的 优势。 Second base Kaz Matsui: 87 Dustin Pedroia: 112 Advantage to Red Sox, but not as great as you might think. Matsui has been terrific in October. 优势属於红袜的，但没有像你可能预测的那麽大。小松井在十月可是十分恐怖的。 Third base Garrett Atkins: 113 Mike Lowell: 124 Lowell also is a better defender. Slight advantage to Red Sox. Lowell也是一个较好的防守者。红袜有些微的优势。 Shortstop Troy Tulowitzki: 109 Julio Lugo: 65 Tulowitzki is a very good young shortstop who sometimes is mistaken for a great young shortstop. Lugo is... alive... Tulowitzki是一个非常好的年轻游击手，有时表现的让人误认为他已经是个伟大的游击 手。Lugo嘛... 还活着... Left field Matt Holliday: 151 Manny Ramirez: 126 Wow, I hadn't really looked at Ramirez' numbers before now. He had a serious down year, which of course means that he was better than most everyone else. Slight advantage to Rockies, unless the Red Sox find themselves down five runs late in a game and Ramirez hits a solo homer, in which case Boston gets extra style points. 哇，我在这之前没真的注意过Ramirez的数据。他有个严重的低潮年，这当然意味着他比 大部分其他球员好。落矶有些微优势，除非红袜在比赛後半段落後5分，而Ramirez打了支 阳春炮，在这种情况波士顿可以得到额外的style points(这边不知道怎麽翻恰当，我的 理解是Ramirez打全垒打姿势的加分 XD)。 Center field Willy Taveras: 89 Coco Crisp: 83 Two defense-first guys in center. Call it a draw. If Jacoby Ellsbury starts for Boston, maybe give the Red Sox a slight advantage on the assumption that scouting reports on him won't be as complete. 两个在中外野防守优先的家伙。双方平手。如果Jacoby Ellsbury先发，在假设对他的球 探报告不完整的情况下，这边可能红袜有些微的优势。 Right field Brad Hawpe: 129 J.D. Drew: 105 Advantage Rockies, although as recently as last season, Drew had a higher OPS+. This one is closer than many folks might realize. 落矶优势，虽然球季末段Drew有比较高的OPS+。这边比许多人可能理解的状况还接近。 Designated hitter Ryan Spilborghs: 111 David Ortiz: 171 I'm assuming the Rockies will have Spilborghs in the lineup at Fenway. Obviously the team representing the league that is still experimenting with the DH gets a huge advantage here. 我假设落矶会让Spilborghs在芬威先发。明显的，代表还在使用DH制度联盟出赛的球队， 在这里有很大的优势。 Bench Seth Smith: 271 (8 PA) Cory Sullivan: 81 Chris Iannetta: 71 Jeff Baker: 61 Jamey Carroll: 56 Ellsbury: 131 Eric Hinske: 83 Alex Cora: 75 Doug Mirabelli: 63 Bobby Kielty: 60 This looks like a wash to me. Boston gets Ortiz over Spilborghs in games at Coors Field. (第一句不太了解 >.<)。在Coors的比赛，波士顿的Ortiz比Spilborghs好。 So, to summarize: Strong advantage to Rockies: shortstop Mild advantage to Rockies: first base, left field, right field Draw: center field, bench Mild advantage to Red Sox: catcher, second base, third base Strong advantage to Red Sox: DH 落矶的大优势：游击手 落矶的小优势：一垒、左外野、右外野 打 平：中外野、板凳 红袜的小优势：捕手、二垒、三垒 红袜的大优势：指定打击 As you can see, this is pretty well split down the middle. The Red Sox will miss Ortiz in Colorado, where he might hit a homer every time up (and even a few when he's in the on-deck circle), but they're strong enough elsewhere that this shouldn't be a problem. The two teams are very evenly matched on offense. 不负责任快速翻译： 如你们所见，在中间的部分双方扯平。而红袜在科罗拉多时会失去Ortiz(没有DH)，不过 他们在其他地方够强，所以不是什麽问题。两队在攻击上平手。 Rotation How about the pitching? (We're using ERA+ here.) Jeff Francis: 112 Josh Beckett: 145 You have to ask? I like Francis, but seriously. Then again, he beat Brandon Webb in Game 1 of the NLCS, and Webb had a better year than Beckett. It's easy to dismiss this matchup, but probably not wise. 快速翻译： Francis在NLCS打败Webb，Webb今年比Beckett好。要打发掉这个对战组合很容易，不过 这可能不聪明。 Ubaldo Jimenez: 111 Curt Schilling: 122 Forget the ERA+, forget their ages; Schilling's playoff experience trumps everything. 忘了ERA+、年龄吧，Schilling的季後赛经验可以胜过任何事。 Josh Fogg: 96 Daisuke Matsuzaka: 108 Fogg has been dubbed "Dragon Slayer" because he's beaten several high-profile pitchers this season. He still isn't a very good pitcher himself, but since the Rockies seem to be charmed just now, we'll call this a draw. Fogg绰号"屠龙手"，因为他今年专门干掉倍受瞩目的大投手。他仍然不是个很好的投手， 但既然现在的落矶看来似乎有魔力保护，我们就当这个组合平手吧。 Aaron Cook: 116 Jon Lester: 104 Cook is an extreme groundball pitcher; Lester was susceptible to gopheritis at times this season, which could be a problem against the Rockies offense at Coors Field. Advantage Colorado. Cook是个极端的滚地球投手；Lester在这球季易受全垒打(gopheritis？)影响，在Coors 对抗落矶的攻势时，这会是个问题。落矶优势。 On paper, Boston's front two look a lot better than Colorado's. As Francis showed in the NLCS, though, anything can happen once you move the game from paper onto a diamond. If the Rockies can split at Fenway, they'll be in real good shape for Games 3-5 at Coors Field. 纸上谈兵的话，波士顿的前两位投手看来比落矶的好很多。但如Francis在NLCS所表现， 一旦你把比赛从纸上移到球场上，任何事都可能发生。如果落矶可以在芬威打平，他们 将会在Coors的G3-5有很有利的状况。 Bullpen Next up, the relievers: Manuel Corpas: 231 Matt Herges: 162 Brian Fuentes: 155 LaTroy Hawkins: 140 Jeremy Affeldt: 137 Jorge Julio: 122 Jonathan Papelbon: 256 Manny Delcarmen: 232 Hideki Okajima: 214 Javier Lopez: 153 Mike Timlin: 139 Kyle Snyder: 124 Geez, that's a devastating bullpen the Red Sox have. Colorado's is terrific, but there isn't much of a comparison here, unless you're looking at the back-end guys. None of the Boston relievers give up many homers. If the Rockies are going to do damage, it's not going to be against these guys. 红袜有压倒性的牛棚。科罗拉多的(牛棚)已经非常吓人了，但仍不能和红袜的比较，除 非你看的是(名单)後半的家伙(按：这句不确定)。没有任何的波士顿後援被打很多全垒 打。如果落矶想要制造伤害，不要面对这些家伙。 Conclusion For the Rockies to win this series, they need to split in Boston. They need Torrealba and Matsui to stay hotter than anyone has a right to expect. They need the young rotation to step up and stare down their more seasoned counterparts. 落矶想要赢这系列，他们需要在波士顿打平。他们需要Torrealba和小松井保持火热。 他们需要年轻的先发加速步伐和以目光压倒拥有有更多经验的对手(这句不确定 @@)。 The Rockies need a lot of things to go right to make this happen. What they've got going in their favor is the fact that over the past five or so weeks, virtually everything has gone right. Regardless of "true level of talent" or any other theoretical constructs we can devise, Colorado's belief in itself just might be enough to carry the Rockies past one final postseason opponent and bring a world championship to Denver. 落矶需要很多地方都有发挥来使这件事发生。他们之所以能持续火热，事实上就是在过 去的大约五周间，每一个地方都发挥得很好。不去考虑"真正的才能等级"，或任何其他 我们设想的理论概念，科罗拉多对自己的信念可能足够带领落矶超越最後一个季後赛对 手，并把冠军带回丹佛。 -- 英文实在不佳，错误难免，请大家多多指教 原来在分析上赢不了，只能靠信念了 0rz Go Rockies Bring a World Championship to Denver --

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