Can Rockets Threaten Thunder in Playoffs? http://0rz.tw/Qu1BO By Bill Ingram Senior NBA Editor The countdown to the 2013 NBA Playoffs has officially begun, with teams having less than ten games remaining in their regular season schedules. If the playoffs started today, the Houston Rockets would start postseason play in Oklahoma City, the home of the defending Western Conference Champion Thunder. 如果今日就开始打季後赛，HOU将对上上届西区分组冠军OKC。 Normally the seventh seed is expected to roll over for the second seed, but if the Thunder and Rockets do, indeed, match up in the first round you can expect a dogfight with plenty of extra drama thrown in. First and foremost, these two teams made a trade right before the season started that seems to have helped Houston more than it did the Thunder. The one thing the Rockets lacked was a legit superstar to carry the load, and James Harden turned into that kind of player seemingly overnight. He leads the Rockets is scoring and is widely considered the third-best shooting guard in the league behind Kobe Bryant and Dwyane Wade. The Thunder got some nice pieces in return, but they have struggled to find consistent offense off the bench to replace Harden’s production in the sixth-man role. With that in mind, we take a look at what could be a very competitive first round match-up. 如果HOU真的在第一轮对上OKC，您可以预期一场充满戏剧性的大乱斗上演。 最先要提到的就是两队在季中的交易，显而易见地对HOU的帮助远大於OKC。 原本本季就缺乏一名名符其实的超级球星的HOU，在一夕之间得到了HARDEN。 这名实力被广泛认定为联盟第三SG(在KOBE与WADE後)用得分能力带领火箭队升空。 而OKC虽然得到了一些回馈， 但仍再挣扎着找寻能代替HADREN从板凳出发的最佳第六人角色与稳定得分火力。 让我们来检视一下这两队在第一轮对决的竞争力吧。 ＊2012~2013 STATS: MPG FG% 3P% FT% RPG APG SPG BPG TO PPG APER JAMES HARDEN 38.2 0.442 0.371 0.860 4.8 5.9 1.8 0.5 3.6 25.8 26.02 KEVIN MARTIN 27.9 0.445 0.418 0.888 2.3 1.4 1.0 0.1 1.3 14.0 15.49 The Case For Oklahoma City Aside from being the second-best team in the Western Conference this season and the defending conference champs, the Thunder bring a great deal to the table that should make them the heavy favorites if they take on the Rockets. They have one of basically two MVP candidates in Kevin Durant, who has elevated his game once again and is simply an unstoppable force on the offensive end. Next to him is another player who is capable of putting up MVP numbers in Russell Westbrook. Together, Durant and Westbrook form the best one-two punch in the West, with only LeBron James and Dwyane Wade coming close in the East. The Thunder are not just Durant and Westbrook, however, and preparing for them in that way has cost plenty of teams this season. There is a strong case to be made that Serge Ibaka is the best defensive player in the year, and Kendrick Perkins is as tough as anyone in the NBA when it comes to protecting the paint and protecting his teammates. Kevin Martin, who came over from Houston in the aforementioned trade, would like nothing better than to help his new team eliminate his old one, and Derek Fisher is certainly no stranger to postseason play. OKC also has a number of key role players who have stepped up over the course of the season, from Thabo Sefolosha, who is one of the best perimeter defenders in the league, to Nick Collison, who is a savvy veteran who always seems to make the right play at the right time. Finally, the case for OKC is made best through looking at the results of the three games these two teams have played against each other this season. The first two were complete blowouts by the Thunder, who seemed to be content to just let Harden get his numbers and stop everyone else. The third game was a rare off night for Durant, but even with their MVP going 4-for-13 from the field, the Thunder managed to build a significant lead only to lose by three after a furious Houston rally in the fourth quarter. The Thunder may not be quite as good as last year, but they are still going to be an incredibly tough out . . . and heavy favorites no matter who they face in the first round. OKC 1.西区分组例行赛战绩NO.2。 2.西区分组冠军卫冕保卫战。 3.两位MVP候选人KD+RW。 (西区最强二人组) <==> LBJ+DW(东区最强二人组)。 4.Serge Ibaka。 => 年度最佳防守球员之一。 5.Kendrick Perkins。 => 禁区硬汉。 6.Kevin Martin。 => 前火箭SG，带领新东家打败旧东家的决心。 7.Derek Fisher。 => 经验丰富的老鱼。(0.4秒的神手) 8.Thabo Sefolosha。 => 联盟最佳後场大锁之一。 9.Nick Collison。 => 经验丰富且中规中矩的白人苦工。 10.对战成绩 HOW 1W2L <==> OKC 2W1L。 前两战OKC成功封锁Harden及其他人，并打爆HOU。 第三战哈林连线大爆发，KD难得落赛，战至第四节才以三分获胜。 11.单以OKC来说，或许没有像去年一样生猛。 但仍是非常难以击败的退伍，无论第一轮对上哪一队都是大热门。 The Case For Houston There may not be many reasons for Houston fans to hope their home town heroes, qualifying for the playoffs for the first time since Yao Ming went down, will make it out of the first round, but there are plenty of reasons to watch and hope. First of all, the Rockets have plenty of weapons, and beyond Harden it’s never easy to know where Houston’s offense is going to come from. In Houston’s lone win of the series against OKC this season, for example, Jeremy Lin scored 29 points and vastly outplayed Thunder All-Star point guard Russell Westbrook. In the second matchup of the season it was really Marcus Morris (now a Phoenix Sun) who lead Houston’s attack. In their first meeting of the season it was Patrick Patterson (now a Sacramento King) who did most of the damage. Morris and Patterson may be gone, but other players have stepped in to keep Houston unpredictable and winning. For the last two wins the Rockets have been without Harden, yet they rung up wins over the Los Angeles Clippers and Orlando Magic with their leading scorer on the sidelines. Against the Clippers, Chandler Parsons, Jeremy Lin and Francisco Garcia all tallied 15 points apiece leading five Rockets in double figures in a lopsided win over one of the West’s best teams. Against Orlando it was Omer Asik with 22 points and 18 rebounds who led the way. Playing against the Thunder you know who you’ve got to stop. If you can slow down Durant or Westbrook, you’ll have a chance to beat them. With Houston it’s not nearly so easy to game plan. If you stop Harden – and he averaged 29.3 points against his former team this season – there’s no telling who will rise up to fuel the Rockets’ afterburners. Houston simply has a deep arsenal of players who have stepped up throughout the season and played exceptionally well. HOU 1.至从姚明退休後，火箭迷首次有希望看到火箭从第一轮脱颖而出。 2.火箭有诸多武器埋伏在HARDEN身後，是一只非常难防守的球队。 3.以对战三场的火力状况来说: 11/28 PPT:27PTS (已交易至KINGS) 12/29 MM: 24PTS (已交易至SUNS) 02/20 LIN:29PTS，HARDEN:46PTS 注:第三战LIN完败RW。 4.虽然PPT与MM被交易走了，但面对LAC与ORL的比赛中， 得分主力HARDEN因伤未出席，其他人纷纷跳出来帮助球队赢得胜利。 VS LAC: 五人得分上双。(LIN，ASIK，PARSONS，GARCIA，DEFINO。) VS ORL: 六人得分上双。(LIN，ASIK 22PTS 18REB，GARCIA，DEFINO，DMO，SMITH。) 显示交易後，火箭的板凳深度并未受到PPT与MM出走而下滑。 5.战略分析: HOU面对OKC，显而易见就是让KD守住RW，或是RW守住KD，就能阻挡OKC获胜。 而OKC面对HOU，却没那麽简单。即使你守住HARDEN(PPG 29.3 vs OKC)， 但你永远无法预料谁会挺身而出，补上火力缺口。 强大的火力与众多的武器，出乎意料的攻势，这就是HOU的优势。 The Verdict The reality here is that the Oklahoma City Thunder are the defending Western Conference champs for a reason. They have as talented a starting lineup as you’ll find outside of possibly San Antonio and Miami, they have an outstanding young coach in Scott Brooks who has the complete faith and confidence of his players. Unlike the Rockets, the core group in OKC has been together for a long time, and they have the experience of two consecutive trips to the NBA Finals to show for their efforts. Longevity and consistency, which are so important in postseason play, are squarely on the side of OKC. The Thunder also have two players who consistently rise to new heights in the playoffs, and considering how good Durant and Westbrook are during the regular season, that’s a terrifying prospect for Rockets head coach Kevin McHale. All of that said, however, the Rockets have won a ton of games they werent expected to win this season, seemingly unaware of their underdog status. Perhaps that same naïveté will serve them well once the playoffs begin. There is no pressure on Houston, as just making the playoffs represents a big step in their rebuilding process. On the other hand, anything short of a championship will be considered a failure for the Thunder. Unfortunately for Houston, this young Thunder teams just seems to get better when the pressure’s on. 总结 1.OKC并定势死扞卫西区分组冠军。 <==> 去年季赛尾段摔到老九。 2.OKC拥有如同HEATS及SPURS等级能力的先发名单。<==> 大部分都是去年替补，都很菜。 3.OKC拥有Scott Brooks，一位对於自己球员有坚定信任与信心的年轻教练。 HOU拥有Kevin McHale，有可能对於KD+RW依旧无解的教练。 4.与HOU不同，OKC的核心阵容已经磨合了很久，并连续两年问鼎NBA总冠军。 已经证明OKC拥有在季後赛作战的实力与稳定性。 <==> YOU NEVER KNOW 5.HOU已经在这个赛季跌破众多专家眼镜，或许天真地想，在季後赛也能如此过关斩将。 相对於OKC，HOU可以说是没有任何重担。而OKC却是带着卫冕西冠压力及总冠军的压力 ，对於HOU来说能进入进後赛已经是重建中的一大步。而OKC却是没有半点容错的可能。 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 短评: 如上述第五点。虽然大家嘴巴说季後练经验就好，但掩不住内心的期待。 我个人是比较看好这个对战组合HOU VS OKC。 ＊HOU VS NUGGETS: 10%>晋级机率>0% 被横扫先不提，昨天被打暴也没关系，金块主场好硬先放一边。 但是同样是讲究快节奏打法的金块，对上火箭硬是更快更有效率。 四场对战的fg%，甚至连最自豪3p%都赢火箭。 (什麽巫术呀，金块3P较准) 甚至连fast break Pts除了第二场平手，其他场也是输给金块。 防守本季要进阶几乎不可能，进攻面上述数据一览无疑。 教练?! Kevin McHale <==> George Karl ＊HOU VS SPURS: 25%>晋级机率>0% 对战成绩HOU 1W3L <==> SPURS 3W1L，内含一场LIN爆气打到OT输球。 首先马刺没有想像中那麽老，再来团队篮球可说是联盟属一属二的。 如果PARKER季後能健康回归，即使GINO仍不能上场，板凳深度还是乐胜。 而季後赛最需要的稳定性与持续性，非公务员莫属了。 虽说HOU常常有人会爆气，但是遇到这种老经验+团队篮球。 虽然DUNCAN会微笑吃T，但是火箭是出名全国客场呀! 教练?! Kevin McHale <==> Gregg Popovich ＊HOU VS OKC: 35%>晋级机率>0% 想法同此篇文章，我个人觉得HOU比较怕多点进攻和擅打团队篮球的。 反而还比较不怕这种得分火力明显集中在球星的球队。 看看对上勇士，火力集中在CURRY，Thompson，LEE的球队。 我们仍取得优势的对战成绩。(纯粹举例，非比较OKC与WARRIORS) 人家有?爹罩，我们只有一个金身呀?! 教练?! Kevin McHale <==> Scott Brooks --

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