Halfway through two great conference finals, is this the company the Rockets keep? 从精采的分区冠军赛来看，火箭是否在同样等级？ -Jonathan Feigen 转自HOOPCHINA 原文连结:http://blogs.chron.com/nba/2009/05/halfway_through_two_great_conf.html 翻译连结:http://bbs.hoopchina.com/0905/664592.html Great Conference Finals. Both series. Stars. Drama. Last-minute finishes. 赏心悦目的分区决赛正在上演。两个赛区你方唱罢我登场，一统江湖的巨星，戏剧化的进展 ，撕咬到最後一刻的轮番绝杀。 It's been terrific. But eight days since the Rockets' season ended, the Lakers-Nuggets and Magic-Cavs have led to a question that should be central to the Rockets' off-season: 这些演出相当卖座。但在火箭启动钓鱼工作後的第八天，仅剩的小飞侠挖金块和皇兽之战两 出大戏让我们不得不一边钓鱼一边思考一个问题： Are the Rockets really this good? 火箭有这些球队那般华丽吗？ They can make that argument. They beat the Nuggets in three of four meetings, swept the Magic and split with the Cavs. The Lakers series went seven games. Is this the company they keep? 正方论点是：本赛季他们（火箭）面对金块保持了 75%的胜率，他们横扫了奥兰多魔兽争霸 队，和克利夫兰御林军平分秋色，并且把洛杉矶贵族拖到了第七场。你们看，火箭不是和这 些球队平起平坐了吗？ Now that the excitement of the Rockets' ability to push the Lakers to a seventh game, winning twice with Yao Ming out, has faded, replaced by the long and slow wait for the free agency period and what will likely be another long and slow wait, the Rockets probably do not want to have to rely on an ability to over-achieve through long odds. 慢慢的，逼宫湖人鏖战七场、在姚明跷课的情况下猛尻湖人两夜这些光辉事蹟带来的非常可 乐已经渐渐暗淡，取而代之的将是对转会市场漫长而煎熬的守望，而且，期待从中渔到肥利 的可能性也许微乎其微。 They have finally gotten past the first round, ending that pursuit and an understandable goal. They did enough in the Lakers series to want to do more. 他们终於开了第一轮的苞，在这个并不艰钜的目标上结束了多年的煎熬。他们在对阵湖人的 系列赛中也尽心尽力表明了自己百尺竿头更进一步的念想。 Before the season, Rockets owner Leslie Alexander said the season would be a success with "a deep playoff run." He did not define that, but it sounded like Conference Finals or better. Under the circumstances, getting to Game 7 of the Conference semifinals with Yao, Tracy McGrady and Dikembe Mutombo all injured and on the inactive list might qualify as "a deep playoff run" and a successful season. The dominance of the home court and the way the city was caught up in the playoffs might be enough to claim success. 回头看赛季前，老板亚历山大号称这将是个“季後赛走的够远”的成功赛季。他没有交代清 楚这个“远”究竟有多“远”，但听起来至少得是分区决赛或者总决赛吧。在这个腔调下， 让了板凳上的“MMM病人组” 依然拼到分区半决赛的最後一场，应该也算是一定程度上体现 了“季後赛走的够远”，并象徵了一个成功的赛季，而主场的骁勇和季後赛的表现也确实足 以宣告这个赛季的杰出了。 If the Rockets can claim to have reached that goal, the next goal is to qualify as contenders - championship contenders. 如果火箭宣告这个赛季的目标基本达成，那麽下一个目标无疑指向加入冠军竞争者行列。 They can get there from here, but that is by no means certain, and not just because the Lakers and Nuggets aren't going anywhere and the Trail Blazers are going to keep getting better. 他们可以朝此目标迈进，但前路多荆棘。湖人和金块仍是拦路虎，而阿拓的正太们还将发育 的更加丰满咸湿。 Increasingly, I'm getting the sense that the Rockets expect much of their improvement to come from within with the expected growth of their young players. That could happen. Aaron Brooks and Kyle Lowry have not played nearly enough to believe they have topped out. If they have the abilities, point guards grow with experience. Brooks will become a more consistent scorer and a better playmaker. Lowry will become a more consistent playmaker and a better scorer. Carl Landry could more reliably bring those flashes of difference-making excellence than the occasional tastes of his first two seasons. 我愈发觉得，火箭正把前进的希望寄托在他们予以厚望的年轻球员身上。这并不荒诞。AB和 萝莉那有限的表现机会不足以显示他们的发展已经封顶。如果他们确实天赋异禀，那麽PG位 的薄弱将通过更多的赛事经验来快速补强。AB有望成为一个更为稳定的得分手和一个更好的 创造者；萝莉有望成为一个更稳定的创造者和一个更好的得分手；而相较前两年，洗衣店将 更多的把即兴发挥的神来之笔转化为稳定可靠的优异贡献。 bit, too), and the Rockets add a backup center in the Mutombo specialist role, is that enough for the Rockets to contend? 但这就够了吗？假设阿泰和Wafer归队（Wafer又长进了一点），并且在中锋位置上填补了一 个类似老木的替补角色，是不是就坐拥了喊冠军的资本储备？ Leave McGrady out of the equation for now because we really don't know when he will be a factor or how great a factor he will be. If he is the player he was a season or two ago, along with the improved roster around him (and Brooks can be a catch-and-shoot factor without the ball if McGrady can once again demand double-team help) then sure, the Rockets could belong in the upper echelon. But we really have no idea if or when that will happen. 在我们演算的方程中暂不列入踢妹，因为眼下我们无从而知他究竟是否还能扮演一个重要参 数，（即便归来）也不知道这个参数究竟能发挥多大的作用。如果能回归到一两年前的他， 并且在场上彻底激发队友的表现（比如他依然能够吸引双人包夹让 AB成为无球跑动後C&S类 的球员），那麽毋庸置疑火箭将位列仙班。但眼下我们真不知道这一幕能否重现。 There is a reason to consider all this so early. The Rockets have their mid-level exception, and there will be more players expecting more than that than will get that. Only the Pistons, Thunder and Grizzlies have cap room to spend and the Grizzlies seem likely to be very, very cautious about spending anything. The Rockets are nowhere near that sort of fire sale status. But when you consider the Rockets' financial commitments for next season, add in Artest's salary and spend a bit on Wafer and a part-time backup center, the Rockets don't seem terribly likely to be offering a full mid-level exception to anyone. Daryl Morey correctly pointed out that some of the biggest mistakes have been the mid-level contracts that teams have awarded. 所以我们必须也有条件未雨绸缪。火箭手握万众觊觎的中产。只有活塞、雷霆和灰熊拥有充 足的薪金空间并且灰熊似乎在引援方面向来谨小慎微。不过，似乎火箭拥有哄抢的资本。但 考虑到以下赛季的财务状况，需要应对阿泰的高薪，还要给 Wafer和替补中锋再喂喂奶，火 箭不太可能再给其他人一个全额中产了。 In those days, however, teams were moving players up to those numbers. This summer, better players might be forced to come down to them. 但是，从前都是心急如焚的GM们在炒作中提高了球员的身价，今天夏天，转会市场将回归性 价比。 When he gets to late August or September, there could be some pretty strong players still out there looking for deals. The Rockets might scoop someone up and will hope that he doesn't mope about his contract, Bonzi-style. But unless the Rockets don't/can't bring back Artest, it seems unlikely that the Rockets will be in the big-bucks business. 如果莫神有耐性捱到八月下旬或者九月，一定会有很多猛男在待价而沽。火箭可能豪取其中 的谁谁谁，只要他不像邦基那样日後对身价闷闷不乐。但真实情况是，除非火箭不愿或者无 法留下阿泰，否则骇人听闻的大交易不会发生。 That worked out OK the past few seasons. They got Artest in a trade they could not have expected 10 days earlier and Luis Scola in a trade they would not have guessed was coming 10 hours earlier. 莫神的团队过去几年战绩显赫。他们在一桩十天前自己都不敢预期的交易中搞来了阿泰，在 另一桩十个小时前仍没有定数的交易中搞来了Scola。 Still, while watching the teams that are contenders, it is worth considering the Rockets' roster, the way they believe it will grow and asking, are the Rockets really are this good? Will they have to be? 所以，当关注那些准冠军队时，不妨想想火箭阵容的演变方向，他们有可能加入准冠军的竞 争行列吗？拭目以待。 --

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