作者XBogaerts (银棒奖的签名球)
看板RedSox
标题Re: [渔塭] Prospects Chat - Alex Speier
时间Thu Dec 24 21:47:56 2015
J.Feliz Luzón (Anderson Espinoza. Agent): More than a question is a comment
regarding Anderson! He is a warrior and harder worker with only 17 y old! He
is figthing everyday to reach his goals and make a 25MR ASAP! He is now
training in Fort Myers
J.Feliz Luzón (Anderson Espinoza的经纪人): Espinosa是一位勇士,17岁就这麽
努力!他每天朝目标奋斗,往25人名单迈进!他现在在Fort Myers接受训练。
Alex Speier: A testimonial from Espinoza’s agent… Espinoza told me that his
goal is to reach the big leagues at age 19, like his idol, King Felix.
Alex Speier: Espinosa告诉我他的目标是在19岁就站上大联盟─跟他的偶像King Felix
一样。
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Billy Collins (Hanson): What do you see the Sox doing with Moncada and
Devers? Bogaerts is entrenched at short and Pedroia is signed through 2021.
Sandoval could move to 1B but it seems like there's only one long term spot
for two guys, especially with the youth in the outfield it would seem less
likely one would be converted to an outfielder.
Billy Collins (Hanson): 你觉得红袜会怎麽处理Moncada和Devers? Bogaerts稳住游击
、小派签到2021年、Sandoval可以移到一垒但是感觉两人之中只能有一人拿到长期工作─
而且外野也已经有年轻人了,转往外野的机会也变低了。
Alex Speier: These sorts of questions require a lot of assumptions about time
scales and aging, and I’m a terrible forecaster of the future! That said,
Moncada has the ability to play virtually anywhere on the field except for
shortstop, which means that issues of potential redundancy are highly
avoidable with him, just as they were when there was consternation about
Pedroia blocking Betts. Devers is years away, so if he’s still at 3B by the
time he gets to the big leagues, chances are, Sandoval wouldn’t be too great
an impediment. Put another way: It’s unlikely that either of these guys will
be blocked through 2018.
Alex Speier: 这类问题需要太多需要时间因素的假设,而我是一个很糟的预测家。
Moncada除了游击之外基本都能站,所以比较不容易被挡到─就像是当年大家在担心Betts
被Pedroia挡住。Devers还需要好几年,所以如果他成功稳住三垒位置并冲上大联盟,
Sandoval大概也没办法强到挡住Devers。另外这两个在2018年之前都不会被挡到。
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Storm (San Jose): Hi Alex! Can Benintendi be a 20/20 guy? What do you think
is his ceiling and ETA?
Storm (San Jose): Benintendi有成为20-20俱乐部成员的潜力吗?他的天花板和ETA?
Alex Speier: I think I mentioned his ceiling — he certainly has 20/20
potential, a player somewhat similar to what Betts showed last year, perhaps.
He has a chance to fly through the minors based on an incredibly advanced
approach. It’s not absurd to guess he’s in the majors by some point in 2017.
Alex Speier: 前面提过他的天花板─当然有20-20潜力,他上季有点类似Mookie Betts。
他的打击策略能让他在小联盟快速通关,所以猜测他2017年上来大联盟并不荒谬。
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Billy Collins (Hanson): With the top 10 being loaded with positional players
and Dombrowski sounding like he would like to develop pitching, should all
expectations be that the Sox look for a pitcher with their top pick next
year? Any suggestions on players to watch this spring that could go in the
top half of the draft?
Billy Collins (Hanson): 红袜的Top 10大多是野手,而Dombrowski似乎偏好补强投手,
所以是否能预期红袜会用最高顺位签选投手?
Alex Speier: Dombrowski did tend to take pitchers with his top picks in
Detroit, but that wasn’t ironclad. My guess is that he’ll offer input but
give Mike Rikard plenty of room to make his own call; Benintendi obviously
looks like an excellent first pick by Rikard in his first year as amateur
scouting director. The Sox’ philosophy has always been best player available
instead of a position-based preference.
Alex Speier Dombrowski在老虎时期确实偏向在最高顺位选投手,不过这并不是铁则。我
猜他会给Mike Rikard(去年第一年选进Benintendi的scouting director)发挥空间做决定
。红袜的近几年的选秀哲学是选择池子里最好的球员,而非选择特定位置。
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Norm Chouinard (Connecticut): If he were eligible, where would Travis Shaw
slot in the top 30?
Norm Chouinard (Connecticut): 如果Travis Shaw具新秀资格,他会排在哪?
Alex Speier: Probably ahead of Travis given what Shaw showed in the big
leagues … However, can’t give a number, since once you sweep Shaw into the
top 10, we’d have to redefine the group with the likes of Swihart, Castillo,
Rodriguez, Owens, Barnes, etc.
Alex Speier: 或许会排在Travis前面,原因是Shaw在大联盟拿出了表现。不过我没办法
给你数字─如果你把Shaw摆进Top 10,我们必须重新定义Swihart, Castillo,
Rodriguez, Owens, Barnes等人的排名。
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Michael Stern (Rochester NY): Love Travis hit tool. Big question is do you
see him developing enough power to warrant being a legit everyday iB ? Thanks
for the chat !
Michael Stern (Rochester NY): 喜欢Travis的hit tool。你认为他能发展出足够的
power而拿下先发一垒手的工作吗?
Alex Speier: No one knows. He has raw power — some scouts who saw him at
Indiana said that he proved capable of going toe-to-toe with Schwarber in BP.
There are some who believe he develops pull power to get up to, say, 15-20
HRs. But what makes him good right now (a willingness to let the ball travel
and stay in the middle of the field) is also what limits his power.
Alex Speier: 没有人知道。Travis有raw power─有球探在Indiana看过他,说他能在打
击练习中与Schwarber并驾齐驱。有些球探认为他能长出pull power(大约是15-20 HR),
不过他现在的优点(让球往中线去)限制住他的power。
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Michael Stern (Rochester NY): Very surprised to see Devers ahead of
Benintendi. What was the reasoning? I'm sure the decision was very close
anyway. Thanks for the chat!
Michael Stern (Rochester NY): 很惊讶Devers比Benintendi前面,原因是甚麽?
Alex Speier: Close to a coinflip. Honestly, I could’ve had any of
Moncada/Devers/Benintendi in any order and felt comfortable with it. Devers,
at 18, already has a more established track record that screams high
likelihood for a future middle-of-the-order player. He and Benintendi
finished the year at the same level. Given the age gap, that’s amazing. I
also tend to be a bit cautious about small-sample dominance (perhaps too
cautious: I should’ve been more bullish on
#featsofmookie after 2013, and
ditto Rodriguez after 2014). I explained my thinking on the specific rankings
a bit more here:
http://bit.ly/1mBQliM
Alex Speier: 五五波。说真的我觉得Moncada/Devers/Benintendi怎麽排都可以啦。
Devers在18岁的年纪就打出成绩,很有机会成为未来的中心打线,而他跟Benintendi都在
同一层级结束球季。考量到年龄差距,真的很令人惊讶。
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Tyler (North Carolina): When is the earliest you can see Moncada and
Benintendi, both of whom look to be on the fast-track to the majors,
especially Benintendi? Could both be on the 2017 roster?
Tyler (North Carolina): 最快何时可以看到Moncada和Benintendi?感觉两人很快都能
站上大联盟,特别是Benintendi?或许2017年?
Alex Speier: Some evaluators think there’s a chance that either of them
could blow up in 2016 in a way that could have them flying to the big
leagues. I think 2017 is more realistic, especially for Moncada.
Alex Speier: 有些球探说两人有机会在2016年就踏上大联盟,不过我认为2017年比较
实际一些,特别是Moncada。
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Tyler (North Carolina): Yoan Moncada had a ton of errors (35 if I remember
correctly) at 2B in Greenville. Could he move elsewhere in the near future or
is 2B going to be his primary position for years to come?
Tyler (North Carolina): Yoan Moncada本季在Greenville守二垒有夸张的失误次数
,他会在不久将来被移往其他位置吗?还是会继续留守2B?
Alex Speier: 23 errors, and most of them came in the first half. He cleaned
up his fundamentals a ton in the second half and reduced the errors
significantly. The Sox don’t plan to move him off 2B entering 2016.
Long-term? That’s another matter. But I think he has the tools to stick at
2B — he can make explosive, dynamic plays there.
Alex Speier: 23次,其中大多发生在上半季。他在下半季打好基础,大幅降低失误频率
。红袜并没有打算在2016年开季改变他的位置,长期计划就不得而知了。不过我认为他有
留在二垒的tool,他能在二垒完成高爆发性的play。
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*Athletic frame.
*High baseball IQ. Xander
*Smooth, fluid swing. Bogaerts
*Elite batspeed. #01
*Strong and explosive hands.
*Above-average-to-better power ceiling, potential 30 home run bat.
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1F:推 vibration333: 推鱼塭 12/24 22:28
2F:推 hahabis: 感谢分享! 12/24 22:49
3F:推 JButton: 推 12/25 00:11
4F:推 asdfg5566: 不晓得他对林的看法怎样 12/25 00:38
5F:推 Unleashed: 推~ 12/25 09:14
6F:推 LesBleus: 真期待Devers跟Moncada 12/25 10:40