Joe Kelly: Perennially an Adjustment Away Eno Sarris http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/joe-kelly-perennially-an-adjustment-away/ Joe Kelly always seems just a tweak away from greatness. He owns one of the biggest fastballs in the game, and has decent secondary pitches that don’t deserve scorn either. His command isn’t great, but he’s no Henry Rodriguez either. Throw a little bit more of one pitch, or a little bit less of another, the thinking has gone, and we’ll finally see greatness from the guy to match his athleticism and velocity. Joe Kelly距离优异似乎总是一步之遥。他有优异的fastball、其他球种也不错，至少不会 被嫌烂。他的command不大好，但他至少不是Henry Rodriguez。或许多丢某一球种、少丢 某一球种，他就会拿出符合运动能力和球速的表现。 You might have to admit that the latest tweak, suggested publicly by his manager, makes you wonder if there’s a fatal flaw that will forever keep the 26-year-old Red Sox starter from realizing his potential. It’s already the third such tweak that either the player or the team has discussed since they acquired him late last year. 不过听了总仔最近的发言後，不禁让人怀疑是不是Kelly有永远无法实现潜力的致命伤。 这个转折在交易後已经出现了三次。 One of the first prescriptions came from Curt Schilling. On air, he’s talked about Kelly using the four-seamer more often, especially high. That would change the eye level and up the velocity on the pitch, two things that should help him strike batters out more. Makes sense, and it seems that, at least on some level, Kelly has listened. 第一个是Curt Schilling的建议：多丢四缝线，尤其是高吊球。这会让打者改变视线高度 ，同时Kelly能催出更快的球速─这能让Kelly三振更多对手。某种程度上Kelly听了进去。 Before the trade, his pitching mix from Brooks Baseball, with velocity, average fastball height as it crosses the plate, and whiff rates. 交易前 Pitch Type Freq Velo (mph) swSTR% Vertical Loc Fourseam 10.3% 95.8 6.4% -0.2 Sinker 57.2% 95.4 5.1% -0.3 And then after the trade. 交易後 Pitch Type Freq Velo (mph) swSTR% Vertical Loc Fourseam 15.5% 96.5 8.5% -0.1 Sinker 52.0% 96.0 3.6% -0.3 More four-seamers. Slightly higher in the zone. Getting more whiffs. It hasn’ t been enough to change Kelly’s fortunes, and recently he swore off the approach. Check out the lede from the game story on a recent start: Kelly丢了更多四缝线、高度稍微高了一点。挥棒落空更多，但不足以改变Kelly的命运─ 而他最近也放弃了这个方法。 先前的报导(05/14对战水手)： ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SEATTLE, Wash. — Here’s what a successful day at the office looks like for Red Sox right-handed starter Joe Kelly: 14 ground ball outs, three fly ball outs and two strikeouts. 成功的关键：14滚地出局、三飞球出局与两次三振。 The key to inducing so many ground ball outs? 制造滚地球的关键？ “I threw one four-seam fastball,” he said. “I just stayed with my two-seam all the time because I feel like I had command on both sides (of the plate). The other day I was throwing more four-seams and and just yanking them off the plate.” 「我只丢了一颗四缝线。我整场固守我的二缝线，因为这样我才能顺利利用好球带两侧。 先前丢四缝线都丢不进好球带。」 (不确定有没有误解意思，有错麻烦指证~) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Going into this season, Kelly was ecstatic about his slider. According to the pitcher, it was the first time he’d thrown the slider in years. Rob Bradford remembers it as the slider that led to so much success at UC Irvine. And after his first outing, it was easy to fall into the same excitement that led Kelly to declare he was going to win the Cy Young this year. 开季後Kelly也对他的slider感到兴奋。根据他的说法，这是他多年以来首次使用slider ─而slider正是他在UC Irvine成功的原因(via Rob Bradford)。而在第一场比赛後，这 份兴奋感让Kelly宣告他要挑战赛扬奖。 http://bit.ly/1HUs9Oj For sure, the slider has changed. 当然，滑球方面也变了。 Freq Velo swSTR Horiz Move Vert Move Slider Before 9.6% 83.8 15.5% 4.8 -1.9 Slider ’15 14.1% 86.3 22.5% 3.3 -1.9 It’s harder and straighter now, and it’s getting more whiffs. Who knows what Kelly called his last slider, but this new slider is looking good. He should throw it more! It’s a top-ten slider among starters! He is, but not by a ton. And again, his swinging strikes are up a bit, but not a ton. He’s still tied for the fastest fastball in the big leagues, with two other guys that don’t get the whiffs you’d expect. 球速更快、球路更直，也制造更多挥空。天晓得Kelly为何停止丢slider，但是这次 新的slider看起来不错─他应该丢更多slider才对！这是先发投手的Top 10 slider！ 他增加了用量，但没有到非常多；挥空率增加了，但不到非常多。另外他还并列联盟 最快的fastball，而另外两位火球男的挥空率并没有各位想像的好。 (本季Ventura 7.6%, Eovaldi 4.8%) Now the most recent edict. From a post called “Red Sox would like Joe Kelly to diversify his mix“, Tim Britton relays Kelly’s newest prescription for success, handed down by the manager. 最新的说法(05/25被双城血洗)：总教练说Kelly成功的关键是配球上多混合球种。 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- MINNEAPOLIS — A day after he was shelled for seven runs in just 1 2/3 innings, Joe Kelly sat down and reviewed the ugly tape with manager John Farrell and pitching coach Carl Willis. Farrell、Willis和Kelly研究了可怕的比赛影片。 The verdict? The same as Farrell’s been saying really since Kelly was acquired from St. Louis last season: The right-hander should be throwing his curveball more. 结论是Farrell自交易案後一直提到的：他应该多丢curveball。 “I still contend and strongly believe that his curveball is a major weapon that’s got to be used in his pitch mix,” Farrell said. “You look back at the Texas game: He made a very tangible adjustment after three innings of work when he went to his curveball more than his slider and slowed them down and had some quick and efficient innings. It’s part of the education process of who Joe is as a pitcher and what makes him most effective.” 「我依然坚信Kelly的curveball是能搭配进配球的的主要武器。回顾对游骑兵的比赛， 他在三局後成功利用curveball调整回来，丢得比slider还多，成功慢下对手节奏并丢出 简洁的局数。这是个学习如何提高投球效率的过程。」 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This might be the weirdest road map of them all. By whiffs, his curve is his worst non-fastball when compared to the league average by whiffs. 这就怪了，与联盟平均相比，他curveball的挥空率是次球种中最差的。 It is his best ground-ball pitch. But Joe Kelly‘s 52% career ground-ball rate has been his best statistical feature other than fastball velocity. Is this really the final step? Curveball是他最佳的滚地球种，不过Kelly的52%滚地球比已经是fastball球速之外最佳 的数据了，这真的是他的最後一个步骤吗？ As Farrell points out, the curve is his slowest pitch, and by using it more, he can stretch the possible velocities hitters will see from 80 mph to 96. That might benefit his sinker and fastballs more than another tick of velocity would. And it could work better than the new slider, or the high four-seamers. Farrell的说法是curveball是他最慢的球种，藉由速差(80~96)来迷惑对手，能有效地增 加fastball和sinker的效果。Farrell也认为用curveball制造速差会比新slider、高吊 四缝线有用。 Mostly, throwing the curve more might work because there’s a hint of a possibility that Kelly can get the curve over inside the strike zone, which hasn’t been true of his other pitches over time. Look at the zone percentages of his different pitches, indexed to the league averages of each pitch, and you’ll see he can’t command his secondary stuff. 丢curveball可能有用最大原因或许是他能把curveball丢进好球带内─这是他其他球种没 有达到的。看看他的球种的Zone%(与联盟平均比较)，你可以看出他并不能有效command 他的secondary pitch。 Pitch Index Zone% 2015 FA 124 2015 FT 106 2015 CU 95 2015 SL 70 2015 CH 30 Total FA 122 Total FC 104 Total FT 101 Total CU 90 Total CH 83 Total SL 74 If your changeup has good shape and velocity, but you only hit the zone with it with one out of every eight thrown… then your changeup isn’t much use. They’ll stop swinging at it. 就算你的changeup有很棒的球路和速度，但是你丢不进好球带的话(今年Zone% 12.5%)， 那就没用啦─对手会停止出棒。 So there you have it: stealing strikes with the curve ball is what will help Joe Kelly make good on his promise. Either that, or we’ll all have to go back to the drawing board. 结论：或许用curveball偷好球是帮助他突破的方法；或者，我们又得继续回来谈啦。 -- ＊Athletic frame. ＊High baseball IQ. Xander ＊Smooth, fluid swing. Bogaerts ＊Elite batspeed. #01 ＊Strong and explosive hands. ＊Above-average-to-better power ceiling, potential 30 home run bat. --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc), 来自: 61.64.169.186 ※ 文章网址: https://webptt.com/cn.aspx?n=bbs/RedSox/M.1432834617.A.EA5.html 感谢 ※ 编辑: XBogaerts (61.64.169.186), 05/29/2015 20:20:26