http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/11/free-agent-profile-max-scherzer.html 2013 Cy Young award winner Max Scherzer is the prize of the free agent market after another superb season. He’s a strikeout machine with a strong record of durability, and agent Scott Boras will be seeking a precedent-setting contract. 前年美联赛扬奖得主Max Scherzer是FA市场中的头奖 他不但是个三振机器 而且非常耐投 他的经纪人Boras准备帮他拿到一份破纪录的大合约 Strengths/Pros 优势 Scherzer, 30, posted a 3.02 ERA over 434 2/3 regular season innings from 2013-14. In 2013, he went 21-3 with a 2.90 ERA and 240 strikeouts for the Tigers and won the AL Cy Young award easily. He made the All-Star team in both years. 30岁的Scherzer过去两季投了434 2/3局 前年他投出21胜3败 防御率2.90 240次三振 率领老虎拿下美联冠军 也轻易在赛扬票选中名列第一 过去两年他都获选进入明星赛 Scherzer has been one of the game ’s most dominant starting pitchers since 2012. He has a 10.5 K/9 over that period, second among qualified starters in all of baseball. His ranking is the same in K%; he’s whiffed 28.6% of batters faced during that time. He’s tallied 231 or more strikeouts in each of the past three seasons and leads all of baseball with 723 punchouts over that time. Scherzer also has good control, with a 2.5 BB/9 over the past two seasons. He uses a four-seam fastball and a change-up, also employing a slider against righties and a curveball against lefties. 他是2012年以来最具宰制力的先发投手之一 期间每九局投出10.5次三振在所有先发投手中排第二 打者面对他的挥空率高达28.6% 过去三季每季至少投出231次三振 合计723K领先全大联盟 也有良好的控球 BB/9在过去两季只有2.5 主要武器包括四缝线速球 变速球 对右打搭配滑球 对左打则多用曲球 Batters made contact on only 74.5% of Scherzer’s pitches from 2012-14, third best in baseball among qualified starters. Batters swung and missed on 11.9% of Scherzer’s pitches, which ranked fourth. 在过去三年间 打者面对他只有74.5%的机率能把球打进场内 这个数据在全大联盟的先发投手里排第三低 打者挥空率11.9% 则是全大联盟第四 Skill-Interactive ERA (SIERA) is the latest ERA estimator, from Matt Swartz. Scherzer’s 2.94 SIERA ranks eighth among qualified starters over the last two seasons. His actual ERA of 3.02 is in line with that, and ranks 11th. 他过去两季的2.94 SIERA 在所有先发投手里排第八 防御率3.02则是排名第11 How about durability? Scherzer hasn’t been on the disabled list since a short stint in 2009. Even that year he made 30 starts, a number he exceeded in every subsequent season. His 434 2/3 innings from 2013-14 ranks sixth in baseball, and he tossed another 29 2/3 frames in the postseason. Still, Boras has pointed out that Scherzer has less wear and tear on his arm than Jon Lester and James Shields. This is mainly because Lester and Shields signed early-career extensions giving up free agent years, and Scherzer did not. 自2009年後 他从没进过DL 而该年他仍然先发了30场 之後每年都超过这个数字 他过去两年吃了434 2/3局 在全联盟排第四 还另外在季後赛投了29 2/3局 Boras也指出Scherzer在手臂的使用量上低於Lester跟Shields 因为後两者都曾经签下延长合约 涵盖了一部分的FA年限 Put it all together, and Scherzer is an ace, one of the best pitchers in the game. He’s tallied 12.0 wins above replacement over the last two seasons, tied with Felix Hernandez for second in MLB. Clayton Kershaw is the best, but Scherzer is in the conversation for second-best. 整体而言 Scherzer是个ACE 全联盟最佳投手之一 过去两季累积缴出12.0的WAR 打平Felix Hernandez 只输Kershaw而已 也就是说 他可能是全联盟第二好的投手 Weaknesses/Cons 弱点 Scherzer is decidedly a flyball pitcher. This hasn’t hurt him over the last two seasons, as he’s allowed 0.75 home runs per nine innings. From 2011-12, however, he allowed 1.22 HR/9. The difference seems like nothing more than the vagaries of his home run per flyball rate, which has hovered around 7.5% over the past two seasons. Across MLB this year, 9.5% of flyballs left the yard. Applying that rate, Scherzer would have allowed 4.7 additional home runs this year and posted a 0.93 HR/9. Simply put: it would not be surprising if Scherzer is slightly below average at preventing home runs during his next contract. 他是个极端飞球投手 过去两季这并不造成问题 他每九局只被打0.75支全垒打 然而在2011-12年间 他的HR/9则高到1.22 这样的落差似乎来自他 被全垒打/飞球率的变化 过去两季他的被全垒打/飞球率只有7.5%左右 全联盟总和则是9.5% 以此计算 他今年将多被打4.7支全垒打 让他的HR/9上升到0.93 他在下张合约期间被全垒打率高於联盟平均也不会令人太意外 Pitch efficiency is not a strong suit for Scherzer. He averaged 16.51 pitches per inning in 2014, 70th among 88 qualified starters. The average qualified starter was at 15.77 pitches per inning. Scherzer threw 3,638 pitches in 2014, third-most in baseball. 他有用球数过多的问题 今年平均每局要用16.51球 在全联盟88个先发投手中只排到第70名 全联盟平均是15.77球 他在今年投了3,638球 是全联盟第三多的 As a player who received and will turn down a qualifying offer, signing Scherzer will require forfeiture of a draft pick. Jon Lester, who is Scherzer ’s biggest competition on the market, is not eligible for a qualifying offer. 他拒绝了老虎的QO 签他要赔第一轮(红袜赔第二轮) Lester身上则没有绑QO Personal 个人特质 Scherzer was born in St. Louis, Missouri. He attended high school in Chesterfield, MO, rooting for the Cardinals as a child. His dad even brought him to Game 4 of the 1985 World Series when he was 15 months old, according to this article from Jeff Passan. Scherzer was drafted by the Cardinals in the 43rd round in ’03. He chose not to sign and attended University of Missouri Columbia, getting drafted 11th overall by the Diamondbacks in ’06. Scherzer majored in business at Mizzou. Scherzer currently resides in Scottsdale, Arizona with his wife. His charitable efforts are extensive, with his Scherzer’s Superstars program and other efforts. Scherzer draws attention for having been born with one blue eye and one brown one, which is called heterochromia. Max is also well-known for embracing advanced baseball statistics, using them to help understand the game. When he was traded in 2009, Scherzer became an MLBTR reader. He told Bob Nightengale of USA Today, “Once that happened, I started becoming a pretty fanatical fan and read it just about every day.” Scherzer对进阶数据非常有兴趣 利用这些数据来使自己更了解比赛 Market 市场情形 C.C. Sabathia‘s seven-year, $161MM contract from six years ago remarkably still stands as the largest given to a starting pitcher on the open market (though the Yankees’ total outlay for Masahiro Tanaka last winter was $175MM, including a $20MM fee paid to his former team in Japan). In 2008, the average American League starting pitcher had a 4.48 ERA. Sabathia was on an island in the 2008-09 offseason, coming off a 2.70 ERA. C.C. Sabathia六年前的7年161M合约 至今仍是FA市场的纪录 2008年的时候 美联先发投手的平均防御率是4.48 Sabathia则只有2.70 Scherzer is not on an island. In 2014, the average AL starter had a 3.92 ERA. As ESPN’s Buster Olney explained, “Major League Baseball’s market has never seen so much attractive pitching available all at once, although executives throughout the sport are aware this shift is something of an optical illusion, created by the historic drop in run production in recent seasons.” Scherzer’s 3.15 ERA this year ranked 26th among qualified starters. That would have ranked 12th in 2008. In ’08, 23 starters were under 3.50. In 2014, 39 starters were under 3.50, including free agents Jason Hammel, Francisco Liriano, James Shields, Edinson Volquez, and Jon Lester. 而今年美联先发投手的平均防御率是3.92 Scherzer是3.15 3.15的防御率在2008年只能排全联盟第12 2008年时 只有23位投手防御率在3.50以下 今年则多到39人 FA先发投手中如Hammel, Liriano, Shields, Volquez, Lester等防御率都低於3.50 这显示了最近几年来联盟渐渐出现投强打弱的趋势 Maybe Boras can make a strong case that Scherzer is the second-best starting pitcher in baseball, but the scarcity isn’t there in baseball or in free agency. Free agency is rife with solid mid-rotation options this year, and teams ready to spend big on pitching might prefer Lester because he might not require a seventh year. Or maybe teams would rather take on Brandon McCarthy ‘s injury risk at half of Scherzer’s average annual value and potentially as few as three years. Boras当然会以Scherzer是全联盟第二好的先发投手来抬价 然而现在的市场上 顶尖先发跟其他投手的差距已经不像当时那麽显着了 市场上有不少中段轮值的选项可作为备案 例如用三年签只要一半年薪的McCarthy 而有意找寻前段轮值的球队 也可能倾向优先找Lester 因为他不用给到第七年保障约 I expect Boras to seek more than $175MM for Scherzer. That kind of commitment limits a player’s suitors. As Heyman put it, “It almost seems like Scherzer is too good for the market at times.” In batting around potential fits with MLBTR’s writing team and others around the game, teams like the Cubs, Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers, Astros, Giants, Rangers, Blue Jays, Mariners, White Sox, Orioles, Nationals, and Diamondbacks came up. Some of those clubs don’t seem to have the payroll space, others don’t seem to be prioritizing starting pitching, and others have suggested they won’t play at the top end of the market. Scherzer’s old team, the Tigers, can’t be ruled out yet. 我预期Boras会开价175M以上 这价钱也让买家变得非常有限 "或许Scherzer对有意先发投手的球队来说太高档了" 他可能的去向包括 小熊 红袜 洋基 道奇 太空人 巨人 游骑兵 蓝鸟 水手等等 他的老东家老虎也还没完全出局 Keep in mind that “this is an owner’s decision,” as Boras put it, as it will happen above the GM level. 签下他这类顶级FA 通常必须经过老板的同意 而不只是GM层级的决定 Expected Contract 预期合约 The Tigers made the unorthodox move of releasing a statement in March after Scherzer rejected a six-year, $144MM offer. The statement mostly made the pitcher sound greedy, and was met in kind by a statement from Boras. The Tigers’ offer was the Cole Hamels deal, which was nearly two years old at that point. Boras viewed that as an old market price, with Tanaka and Kershaw having signed more recently for $175MM and $215MM, respectively. Boras told Jon Heyman of CBS Sports in November, “It’s rare that someone shows the character and confidence to trust his ability to turn down $144 million. That’s never been done in professional sports. And that says a lot about Max Scherzer.” 老虎在今年三月试图以6年144M与他续约失败後 曾经发出声明暗示他过於贪婪 这个offer跟Hamels当年的延长合约是一样的 而且他比Hamels那时还老了两岁 Boras认为那已经是过去的价格了 他能拒绝这样的offer 就显示了Scherzer的实力 It stands to reason that Boras will want the seven year term achieved by Tanaka and Sabathia. Tanaka’s deal began with his age 25 season, Sabathia’ s with his age 28 campaign. Scherzer’s deal will begin with his age 30 campaign, so he’s got a tougher case, one he’ll make with the “less wear-and-tear” argument. And don’t be surprised if we hear about Boras asking for eight years, as a way of arriving at seven in the end. Boras当然会想要7年约 然而跟田中以及CC的两张七年约比起来 Scherzer签约时已经要进入30岁了 风险会比上述两人更高 当然Boras会拿他手臂损耗较少这种说词来讲就是了 听到Boras开八年也不要太意外 这只是一种讨价还价的的伎俩而已 For average annual value, the $30.7MM figure obtained by Kershaw is likely out of reach, though Boras may make the argument that Kershaw’s six free agent seasons cost more like $32MM per year. Greinke was at $24.5MM, Tanaka at $25MM. Felix Hernandez and Justin Verlander were at $27-28MM per year, but those extensions were not signed on the open market and only added five additional years. 他大概不大可能拿到Kershaw的30M年薪 Greinke的24.5M 田中的25M都是比价基础 Felix Hernandez跟Verlander虽然每年都拿27-28M 但他们只签了五年约 Ten MLB contracts have included opt-out clauses, and Boras did four of them. The three most recent starting pitcher deals with opt-out clauses were done by Casey Close of Excel Sports Management (Tanaka, Kershaw, and Zack Greinke). Greinke and Sabathia obtained the ability to opt out after three years. Boras figures to seek the same for Scherzer, who could then hit the market again ahead of his age 33 season. The opt-out clause is not a guarantee; Boras didn’t get one for Prince Fielder in the 2011-12 offseason. But it is possible that some teams won’t view an opt-out as a big negative despite the downside risk, as explained in my article on the topic from February. The clause could allow a team to sign Scherzer and duck his decline phase, as the Yankees could have done with Sabathia had they let him go after his third year with them. 目前10张附带脱逃条款的合约里 Boras就占了4张 最近三张都出自Casey Close (田中 Kershaw Greinke) Greinke跟CC的合约都有三年後可选择脱逃的条款 Boras或许也会想要 这样他可以在Scherzer 33岁的时候再帮他找一份养老约 脱逃条款对球队来说也不见得差 这可以让他们避开选手可能的衰退 洋基在CC脱逃後 原本也可以让他就这样走人就好 Getting past Tanaka’s $175MM outlay would be a symbolic win for Boras. I’m predicting a seven-year, $185MM deal for Scherzer. 帮他拿到超过田中将大的175M合约将会是Boras的一次指标性胜利 我预测他可以拿到7年185M的合约 --- 基本上 今年Scherzer Lester Shields这三个我们应该铁定会签一个 签Shields的话 则可能另外会透过交易 找一个1号先发 人选包括 Hamels Zimmermann Cueto等等 签前两人之一的话 可以选择交易的二号先发人选会比较多 大概也不需要出到Betts, XB, Swihart这种真的会痛的新秀 而Scherzer Lester这两个人 个人会比较倾向签回Lester 理由大致上是 就比赛的内容看起来 Scherzer这种power pitcher比较会受到年纪影响 球威下滑後如果找不出一套有效率的投球方法 可能衰退的幅度会超乎想像 尤其飞球型投手在芬威又更容易挨轰 这张七年约可能有一半的时间都会让人非常不舒服 而Lester已经面对过球速下滑的问题 透过加强cutter跟曲球的控制 他还是表现出很不错的压制力 他比Scherzer老一岁 但也只需要给到六年约 所以其实意思是一样 不管签谁都要签到他们的36岁球季 衰退可能是无可避免 不过他滚地球投手的特性 (生涯滚飞比0.9 Scherzer只有0.65 联盟平均0.81) 加上对芬威的熟悉 或许有机会像Cliff Lee一样威到35岁上下 如果能这样的话 最後一年保障约就当作感谢他对球队的贡献也未尝不可 btw, 好像没看到前天球队开给Lester的110M-120M是五年还是六年? 如果五年120M的话 或许还能称得上是"aggressive offer" ? --

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