http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/11/free-agent-profile-jon-lester.html Ten months ago, the common belief was that Jon Lester would sign an extension that would keep him in a Red Sox jersey into his late 30s. A lot can change in a few months, however, and Lester soon found himself donning the green and gold of the Oakland A’s following a midseason trade from a surprisingly poor Boston club. Though many Red Sox fans wouldn’t have believed it would come to this, the lefty is now fair game on the open market. 十个月以前 一般认为Lester会跟红袜签下延长合约 成为终身红袜人 然而上季球队战绩的不振 让他意外在季中穿上了运动家的球衣 现在他得以在市场上测试他到底值多少$$ Strengths/Pros 优势 To put things in the simplest of forms, Lester is a true ace at this point in his career. He misses bats, has strong control and piles up innings. Among free agent starters, Lester’s 2.46 ERA last year leads the pack by a long shot, as does his 2.80 FIP. He was worth 6.1 wins above replacement, per Fangraphs’ version of the metric (which is based on FIP), and he was worth 5.8 wins when looking at RA9-WAR, which is based on actual runs allowed. Both metrics were tops among free agent starters. He struck out 220 hitters and walked just 48 in 219 2/3 innings this season (9.0 K/9, 2.0 BB/9). 简单来说 他在此刻是个真ACE 能让打者挥空 控球好又能吃局数 上赛季2.46的防御率在FA中领先 以FIP来看 他上赛季的WAR是6.1 以实际帮球队省下来的分数来看 他上赛季的WAR是5.8 两者都显示他是顶尖的先发投手 上赛季他在219局里三振了220位打者 只保送了48人 (9.0 K/9, 2.0 BB/9) The 2014 campaign marked the sixth time in seven seasons that Lester has topped the 200-inning threshold, and he totaled a strong 191 2/3 in the lone season he fell short (2011). His 219 2/3 innings trails only Max Scherzer (220 1/3) and James Shields (227) among fellow free agents. Dating back to 2008, his age-24 season, Lester has averaged 207 innings per season. He’s hit the DL just once in that time, spending a mere 19 days on the shelf with a strained lat in his left shoulder. That minor injury is all that prevented him from seven straight 200-inning seasons. 上个球季是他过去七个球季里 投球局数第六度达到200局大关 唯一没到200局的2011年 也吃了191 2/3局 上季投了219 2/3局 FA中仅次於Scherzer (220 1/3局)跟Shields (227局) 2008年起 他平均每年可以吃下207局 只进了DL一次 (19天) Lester was a strikeout machine early in his career, but his K/9 numbers dipped in recent seasons, settling in the mid-7.00s before his resurgent 9.0 K/9 in 2014. Lester pounded the strike zone early this season, registering a 61.4 percent first-pitch strike rate — the highest mark of his career. Perhaps being ahead in the count more often than ever improved the effectiveness of his curveball, or perhaps it was the fact that he threw it slower than ever before (75.1 mph average), but Lester’s 18.2 percent whiff rate on his curve was easily the strongest of his career, resulting in the restored strikeout rate. 他生涯早期是个三振机器 虽然12跟13年 K/9曾经掉到7.5左右 上赛季又回升到9.0 上季的好表现得力於他积极攻击好球带 第一球好球率高达61.4% 生涯最高 同时改善了他曲球的效率 或许是调整了曲球的速度 使得速差更明显的关系 18.2%的让对手挥空率 也是生涯最佳 让他重新找回他的三振能力 Most of Lester’s career has come in a large market in the game’s most hitter-friendly division, and he’s thrived in that setting, for the most part. Teams will appreciate that component of his game, and his postseason experience won’t hurt either. Lester has a 2.57 career ERA in 84 postseason innings. He’s a two-time World Series champion that has been on five playoff rosters. 他生涯绝大部分的时间都在大市场球队以及对打者最有利的球场之一投球 而他大部分的时间都展现了他的压制力 季後赛的表现与例行赛同样杰出 84局里防御率低到只有2.57 五度名列季後赛名单里 已经拿下两枚冠军戒指 Lester’s main competition this year will be Scherzer, with Shields representing the third-best arm on the market. However, unlike his peers atop this year’s free agent class, Lester does not have a qualifying offer attached to him; he was ineligible to receive one after being traded midseason and can therefore be signed without the forfeiture of a draft pick. 在自由球员市场中 他主要的比较对象是Scherzer Shields则是第三选择 与其他两人不同 由於季中被交易的关系 他身上没有绑QO 签下他的球队也不用赔第一轮 Weaknesses/Cons 弱点 Lester was flat out elite this season, much like he was in his first full three seasons, but from 2011-13, he looked more like a good starter than a truly great one. In that time, Lester posted a 4.03 ERA, 3.84 FIP, 7.7 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 — useful numbers to be sure, but not the type of stats one associates with a pitcher in search of a six- or seven-year contract. 他上赛季的表现无疑是精英级的 与他前三个完整球季(08-10)一样 然而在2011-2013这段期间里 他看起来像是个好投手而非顶尖投手 这段期间里他的防御率4.03 FIP则高到3.84 7.7 K/9跟3.1 BB/9等数字 都让他看起来不像是个可以拿到六至七年长约的投手 Though he averaged better than 93 mph on his fastball earlier in his career, Lester’s velocity settled into the mid-92 range from 2011-13 and dipped even further in 2014, averaging 91.8 mph. Of course, that’s still plenty of life, especially considering the fact that he’s left-handed. 生涯初期均速有93 mph以上 在2011-2013这段期间里略降到92.5左右 在上个赛季更降到只有91.8 mph 当然这还是个不错的数字 特别是他还是个左投手 Lester turns 31 in January, meaning that a six-year deal would run through his age-36 season and a seven-year pact would run through his age-37 campaign. Clearly, that’s a risky commitment, though such is the case with all top-of-the-market free agents. He’s younger than Shields, but Scherzer pitches most of next season at age 30, so his main competitor has age on his side. 他在一月将满31岁 这意味着给他六年约将会涵盖他36岁的球季 (七年约则同理) 显然这是一个有风险的决定 即便这是追逐顶尖FA球员的典型风险 他比Shields年轻 比Scherzer大一岁 所以Scherzer在年龄上会有些优势 Personal 人格特质 Lester’s battle with cancer early on in his career was well-documented, and in addition to the great comeback story that culminated in him winning the clinching game of the 2007 World Series, that battle has shaped the work he’ s done in the community. Lester partnered with Charity Wines to release his own line of red wine, the proceeds of which benefit the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center. His NVRQT charity sends all of its proceeds to the Pediatric Cancer Research Foundation, and Lester explained how the charity came about and what it means to him in a guest column for the Boston Globe in 2013. 他的抗癌历史已经众所皆知 在07年重回球场帮助球队拿下WSC 下略 This past July, Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe wrote about the strides Lester has made in terms of maturity both on the mound and with the media after being a bit hot-tempered earlier in his career. (Abraham references glaring at umpires after questionable calls and the infamous chicken-and-beer incident as examples.) Lester is married and has two sons. The Tacoma, Washington native now resides near Atlanta in the offseason. Market 市场状况 Lester is one of the arms referred to as the “Big Three” of this offseason, along with Scherzer and Shields. However, while MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes noted that a third or more of the teams in the league could have viable interest in Shields, the younger Lester figures to come with a higher price tag that may take him out of the picture for a number of clubs. 他是今年FA先发投手三巨头之一 其他两人分别是Scherzer跟Shields 由於价位较高的关系 事实上追Shields的球队会比追他的来得多一些 Lester stated multiple times that he’d like to return to Boston, and last winter he told reporters that he planned to be with the Red Sox until someone “ripped the jersey off his back.” However, the Red Sox made an initial offer of $70MM over four years, at that point, and while the reported $110-120MM offer they made today might have worked in March, it feels too light to make them a serious contender right now. Lester曾经数度表示他希望回到Boston打球 去年冬天他告诉记者 "他希望在红袜待到有人扯下他的球衣" 然而 红袜去年只开给他四年70M的合约 而不是他们昨天开给他的110M到120M 现在看来 这个价钱还不足以让Lester回到红袜效力 The other popular landing spot for Lester is the Cubs, where former Red Sox GM Theo Epstein is now president of baseball operations. Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer were members of the Boston front office when Lester emerged as a front-line starter, and the team is rich on young hitters without much in the way of high-upside pitching (Jake Arrieta is a notable exception). 另一个Lester的热门去处是小熊 也就是Theo现在工作的地方 他们有一批年轻的好打者 但是缺Arrieta以外的前段先发 Other teams that figure to enter the mix are the typical names we see assorted with high-end free agents. Though the Yankees maintain that they won ’t pursue Lester, Scherzer or Shields, it’s possible they’ll change their tune if they’re unable to re-sign Brandon McCarthy and Chase Headley. The Dodgers have the cash to pull off a deal, though they’re said to be looking to tone down spending this winter. I still won’t rule them out as a possibility. The Tigers and Angels have high payrolls but cloudy long-term outlooks thanks to existing salary on the books. Neither seems a fit barring trades to create some long-term flexibility. 另外就是几支大市场球队 例如洋基 道奇 老虎 天使等等 The rest of Lester’s market will have to consist of dark horses, and agents Seth and Sam Levinson of ACES will likely need to pitch to owners of some unlikely teams that Lester could be a franchise-altering decision. To this point, the Royals have shown some preliminary interest, and Lester is set to meet with the Braves on Thursday. The Cardinals have also been linked to Lester. 其他黑马包括 皇家 勇士 红雀等球队 则需要经纪人直接找上老板沟通 让老板相信Lester会是那夺冠的最後一块拼图 Beyond that, a team like the Astros has the long-term payroll freedom to make a move, as do the Marlins, who could feel that adding Lester would be a significant step toward building a perennial contender now that they’ve extended Giancarlo Stanton. The Nationals have plenty of money and are set to lose both Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister next winter. Trading one and swapping him out for Lester could is a long shot but not unthinkable. The Giants haven’t spent at this level on the free agent market since their ill-fated Barry Zito deal, but they have rotation needs and are flush with cash following the World Series. The Rangers deserve a mention as a team with a willingness to spend and a need for starters, but GM Jon Daniels has indicated they may not be big spenders on the open market. Could a reunion with his hometown Mariners be in the cards? Seattle’s primary need is offense, but if they again have trouble luring hitters to Safeco Field, GM Jack Zduriencik could double down on an existing strength and look to build an even more imposing rotation. 除此之外 太空人 马林鱼 国民 巨人 游骑兵 水手等球队 某程度上也都会想要Lester在他们的阵中 Expected Contract 预期合约 As is often the case with big name free agents, it’s easy to look at Lester right now and think that outside of the traditional big spenders, there’s not much of a market for him if he’s seeking six or seven years at an annual value north of $20MM. With players of this caliber, the market isn’t always quick to reveal itself, but it does eventually materialize, and we typically see the top names get paid. 看看那些有钱花的球队 就不难推测Lester的可能下家有哪些 没有很多球队负担的起每年20M 六到七年的大约 虽然这类球员的市场成形需要一些时间 但最後他们通常都会拿到该拿的$$ Lester has said free agency isn’t all about the money, but I’d be surprised if his agents hadn’t at least kicked around the goal of trying to break CC Sabathia‘s $161MM guarantee, which is still the record for a free agent pitcher. (The Yankees did spend $175MM on Masahiro Tanaka, but $20MM of that sum went to Tanaka’s former team in Japan.) Lester曾经说过打球并不完全是为了钱 但如果他的经纪人不试试看能否让他打破CC的161M保障约纪录 将会令人讶异 Were Lester coming off a pair of dominant seasons, as Scherzer is, I think there would be a better case for that figure. As it is, however, he showed a significant gap between his two most recent dominant seasons. Also of note is that Sabathia, like fellow high-priced hurlers Zack Greinke and Cole Hamels, signed his contract at a significantly younger age than Lester. While we have to account for some inflation, as those deals are now older (and Hamels’, of course, was not an open-market deal), Lester may have a hard time getting the seventh guaranteed season. Looking at the majority of the significant pitching contracts signed in recent history, guarantees typically stop in the age-36 season, if not sooner. If that’s the case, Lester would need to achieve a $27MM annual salary to top Sabathia on a six-year deal, which seems a touch steep. 如果Lester是连两季有去年这种宰制级的表现 这个目标将会比较容易达成 即便他在去年之前表现有些落差 考虑通膨因素之後 合理的比较对象应该是Hamels(7年153M)跟Greinke(6年159M)那两张约 由於Lester拿到第七年保证约的机率不大 大概没办法超越CC的161M纪录 In the end, I do think Lester can top the marks set by Hamels and Greinke. Lester was the best performer among free agent pitchers in 2014, so I can’t completely rule out him getting a seventh year and/or passing Sabathia’s mark. However, his age and the lack of a consistently dominant track record has me pegging him for a six-year, $153MM contract. 由於Lester是14年表现最佳的FA先发 我认为他将会拿得比Hamels跟Greinke还多 然而考虑到他的年龄以及并非持续性的维持宰制力 我预料他将会拿到六年153M的合约 --- 看到昨天球队开给Lester的110M到120M offer之後 很多版友都觉得FO搞砸了 不过我想说的是 事实上在Lester去年赛扬级的表现之前 他连三年的表现都不是ACE级的 去年冬天开给他4年70M 顶多是一个保守的offer 但不至於有到羞辱人的程度 当然如果去年就端出6年120M的合约给他 他很可能会接受 但问题还是回到前面 开给31-36岁的二号先发6年120M的"延长合约"是明智的吗? 个人认为拿他14年的表现来指责FO 这有点事後诸葛 至於季中该不该交易他 这又是另外一个问题了 至少从报导上看来 这并没有影响他重返红袜的意愿 而我们也拿到多一年合约的Cespedes 可以顶上中心打线 或换另一个先发来补轮值洞 个人不觉得这是一个错误的move 不过在Lester去年的强势表现之後 显然现在要找他回来要付出更大的代价 如果如本文预测的六年150M以上 (平均一年25M) 大家觉得值得吗? --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc), 来自: 111.243.100.53 ※ 文章网址: http://webptt.com/cn.aspx?n=bbs/RedSox/M.1416491567.A.8E4.html ※ 编辑: seekforever (111.243.100.53), 11/20/2014 22:08:46