http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014-15-free-agent-profiles Francisco Liriano‘s last venture into the free agent market came on the heels of a down season split between the Twins and White Sox, and resulted in a low-risk two-year deal for the Pirates. After playing an integral role in two straight postseason appearances for Pittsburgh, the lefty will hit the open market in a much stronger position. 上一次Liriano几乎是生涯最低点进到ＦＡ，也因此只能拿到乐透级的二年约 在连续两年的好表现带海贼打进季後赛之後，这次他的处境将会好得多 Strengths/Pros 强项 There’s little doubting that Liriano has the talent to be one of the most dominant arms in the game. As a 22-year-old rookie in 2006, he looked to be an unhittable force (2.16 ERA, 10.7 K/9, 2.4 BB/9) that would have garnered Cy Young attention had Tommy John surgery not stopped his season at 121 innings. His recovery was longer than most, and while he struggled in 2008-09, he returned to form with a dominant 2010 season worth nearly six fWAR. 没人怀疑他有成为顶尖投手的天分，０６年他才２２岁就成为赛扬奖候选人之一 即使随後因ＴＪ手术让他连两季都投的挣扎，１０年的强势回归仍然缴出６ＷＡＲ Over his past two seasons with the Pirates, Liriano has turned in 323 1/3 innings of 3.20 ERA with 9.4 K/9, 4.0 BB/9 and a strong 52.4 percent ground-ball rate. Sabermetric ERA estimators such as FIP and xFIP both peg Liriano’s true talent with Pittsburgh at a 3.26 ERA, so both old-school and new-school lines of thinking paint him as a well above-average pitcher when he’s at his best. 过去两季在海贼的323 1/3局，缴出3.20 ERA, 9.4 K/9, 4.0 BB/9跟52.4%的滚球率 数据派与传统的评估方式都显示当他状况好时，他是个远高於平均的投手 Part of the reason for Liriano’s resurgence with the Bucs is that he’s rediscovered some life on his fastball. The 31-year-old has averaged 92.8 mph on his heater over the past two seasons, whereas in some of his weakest seasons, his velocity sat 90-91 mph. He doesn’t have the 94.7 mph average he did as a rookie, but his average velocity is still tops among free agent lefties. 他能在海贼复活，部分原因是他找回了他的球速（过去两季平均92.8 mph） 他表现不好的几个球季，均速只有90-91 mph而已 他不再是那个均速94.7 mph的投手，但现在的球速在ＦＡ左投中仍然位於前列 When Liriano’s velocity is working, he racks up strikeouts at a prolific clip. He’s whiffed 9.2 hitters per nine innings throughout his career (even including his down seasons), and this year’s 9.7 K/9 mark trails only Max Scherzer among free agent starters. 当他球速出的来，他的三振率就会是Scherzer等级的 Liriano turned 31 after the season, so he’ll pitch the entire 2015 regular season at that age. That makes him younger than a number of his peers in the second tier of the starting pitching market, including Ervin Santana, Brandon McCarthy and former teammate Edinson Volquez. １５年球季他才３１岁而已，比Santana, McCarthy, Volquez等第二级ＦＡ先发都年轻 Weaknesses/Cons 弱点 For as good as Liriano can be, there’s no ignoring the inconsistency and injuries that have, to some extent, defined his career to this point. Liriano has finished with an ERA well north of 5.00 in three full seasons, and in two of those seasons he walked five hitters per nine innings. Agent Greg Genske of the Legacy Agency can point to Liriano’s longer-than-usual recovery from Tommy John surgery as the culprit for those marks in 2009 and shoulder inflammation for the 2011 season, but Liriano floundered under two separate pitching coaches in 2012 and was injury-free that year. 表现起伏大且太痛 生涯有三个球季ＥＲＡ在５以上，其中两季每九局送出５次以上的保送 他的经纪人解释这是因为ＴＪ手术的影响，以及１２年换了两个投手教练 Even in his two excellent seasons with the Pirates, Liriano spent significant time on the DL in each campaign. The first was a freak accident — a fracture in his non-throwing arm sustained while falling in his apartment — but the second injury, an oblique strain, did cost him more than a month in 2014. 即使在他表现杰出的前两季，他还是有相当的时间进ＤＬ All told, Liriano has had seven trips to the DL in a nine-year career. As such, he’s topped 180 innings just once — back in his stellar 2010 season. As I noted in my profile of fellow injury-prone starter Brandon McCarthy, teams are likely to show trepidation when it comes to multi-year contracts for pitchers without a track record of durability. No matter how great the upside, the downside of receiving 100-120 innings and having to patch together that rotation spot with a potentially replacement-level arm is concerning. 九年生涯已经进了７次ＤＬ，只有一季投超过１８０局，在他杰出的１０年球季 球队在考虑给他或McCarthy这类痛痛人复数年合约时，必然会考虑到耐投性的问题 无论他多有天分，一旦只能投100-120局，其他局数补上来的将是replacement-level等级 Control has oft been an issue for Liriano throughout his Major League tenure as well. He averaged 4.5 walks per nine innings in 2014 and has averaged 3.9 for his career. The Pirates made a qualifying offer to Liriano, and while some were surprised by the decision, I expect him to reject in search of multiple years due to his age and recent success. As Santana showed last spring, even if the market collapses, it’s still possible to find a one-year contract at or near the value of the QO late in the offseason. 除此之外，控球也是Liriano长期以来的问题 生涯平均每九局送出3.9次四坏球，上季更高达4.5次 海贼已经开给他ＱＯ，没有意外的话他将会拒绝 Personal 个人特质 Liriano is married and has three children with his wife, per the Pirates media guide. They make their home in the Dominican Republic in the offseason. He comes from a good baseball family, as his cousin is Giants setup man/closer Santiago Casilla. Liriano has a reserved and quiet image but is seen as an excellent teammate by those who have played with him and was asked to take up a leadership role with the Pirates in recent years, particularly following the departure of the veteran A.J. Burnett. 他给人安静腼腆的感觉，但与他共事过的人都认为他是个好队友 在A.J. Burnett离开海贼後，他也担起老大哥的角色 Market　市场状况 Beyond the top three starters on the market, Liriano is in the mix for the top second-tier starter along with names like McCarthy, Santana and Kenta Maeda. Liriano’s camp can likely build a case that he has the highest ceiling among those arms, and despite the undeniable risk associated with Liriano, it’s an arguable point. Liriano misses more bats than the other three and has had four very strong seasons at the Major League level, even if there was some distance between them. 除了三巨头外，第二级的ＦＡ先发包括McCarthy, Santana跟前田健太 Liriano阵营当然会强调他的天花板比上述这些人都高，当然风险可能也是 他的优势在於他更常让打者挥空，而且在大联盟已经有过四季的好表现 A large number of teams are going to be in the market for rotation help, and many won’t be able to afford the likes of Scherzer, Jon Lester and James Shields. Liriano could be the top target for some clubs, and it’s possible that one of the teams who inks one of the big three could wish to add Liriano as a second boost to the rotation. The Red Sox are said to be eyeing multiple starters and have been connected to Liriano, and the Cubs, too, are known to be seeking multiple starting pitchers. Both teams will have a protected first-round pick, as will the Astros, D’Backs, Rockies, Rangers and Twins, each of whom has some need in the rotation (it’s unclear if the Twins would have any interest in rekindling that relationship, however). I’ll also add the Mariners, Yankees, Giants, Royals and Dodgers as teams I could see entering the mix, though the M’s of course seem likely to first focus on their offense. 他是很多负担不起三巨头又想补强先发的球队的首选， 也是抢下三巨头之一後，想进一步补强轮值的球队如红袜、小熊等球队的选项 而上述两队的第一轮选秀权都受到保护 An interesting point raised to me by MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes is that Liriano and Russell Martin could make an interesting package this offseason. A team that signed Martin would have less to lose than others in adding Liriano, having already forfeited a pick, and the two have worked well together in the past. The Cubs, Rockies and Dodgers seem like at least plausible fits in that regard. Liriano跟Russell Martin或许会到同一队，一方面他们过去合作愉快， 而且签下其中一人的球队，相较於其他队再签一人的代价比较低（只要赔第二轮） Expected Contract　预期合约 Simply put, I’m of the strong belief that speculation regarding Liriano accepting a qualifying offer is largely overblown. Liriano will pitch all of next season at 31 years of age and is coming off a pair of strong seasons with flashes of brilliance in his past. There’s no ignoring the risk associated with his arm, but I believe that offers in the $10-15MM range could be waiting at the end of the offseason even if the multi-year deal Liriano’s camp covets ultimately fails to materialize. Liriano接受ＱＯ的可能性被过度夸大了，即使他要不到复数年约， 在开季前要到与ＱＯ价格差不多的一年约也不是问题 Surrendering a first-round pick for Liriano is a risk, but there are 10 teams that can sign him for a second-round pick, and it’s not inconceivable that he ends up costing “only” a third-round pick if an aggressive team on the free agent front adds multiple players with QOs looming over their heads. 赔第一轮签他是个赌注，不过有十队都有受保护的第一轮选秀权 如果某队在ＦＡ市场上撒钱，也有可能只要赔第三轮就能签他 Players with this type of injury history and inconsistency rarely, if ever, get four-year deals, but we saw a less consistent Ubaldo Jimenez land four years last offseason. Regardless of how that deal looks now, it still serves as a reference point that upside can trump inconsistency. Liriano doesn’t have Jimenez’s durability so the fourth year feels like a reach (although I do feel it’s possible), but I believe he’ll receive some three-year offers. In the end, I’m predicting a three-year, $40MM contract for Liriano. 考量他的大起大落跟伤病史，他可能很难拿到四年约，或许会有几张三年约的开价 对照比较耐投的Ubaldo Jimenez去年跟金莺签的四年５０Ｍ合约 我猜测他可以拿到三年４０Ｍ －－－ Liriano是另一个被预测可能到红袜的先发， 如果能保持健康，他的天分就摆在那里，但这个如果本身就是个赌注 考虑到我们３Ａ有几个接近ＲＥＡＤＹ的人选，个人觉得抢他的可能性蛮大的 --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc), 来自: 111.243.102.123 ※ 文章网址: http://webptt.com/cn.aspx?n=bbs/RedSox/M.1415438221.A.BB8.html ※ 编辑: seekforever (111.243.102.123), 11/08/2014 17:18:31