Boras compares Ellsbury to Carl Crawford (and an aircraft carrier) http://0rz.tw/bFweG The Red Sox have keen interest in re-signing star center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury, according to people familiar with their thinking. However, Red Sox connected people are suggesting now that if Ellsbury's market goes well into the nine-figure arena – and considering their own $142 million deal for Carl Crawford three winters ago among other comps, it could happen – they aren't necessarily optimistic that Boston will be able to retain him. 根据对红袜策略思考熟悉的人表示，红袜很有兴趣和Ellsbury签约。「不过」，相关人士 表示如果Ellsbury不只进入九位数的世界还进入很深的话─被尻佛$142M毒药约吓到的红 袜再签约的机会不乐观。 ($100M数量级) The Red Sox tried to re-sign Ellsbury sometime before this season, and all indications are they will try again. The issue is whether they have interest in getting into a bidding war that could go easily past the $100 million mark, well past it if you listen to Ellsbury's agent Scott Boras' words Thursday. 红袜在季前试图重签，而各方消息也指出红袜会再试一次。但是照着Boras的说法，无论 红袜有没有意愿加入抢人大战，总价码都会远超过九位数大关。 Boston had huge success dealing last winter in what's been dubbed the “ mid-range” market, scoring big with its deals for Shane Victorino, Mike Napoli and others, and that strategy may be weighing on them. It's no surprise there are people within the Red Sox hierarchy who aren't anxious to return to the $100 million-plus type deals that haven't always paid off for them. 上一个冬天红袜在「中阶市场」中打了漂亮的一仗，Shane Victorino、Mike Napoli等人 成了策略中的主角。所以出现认为不急着去和不见得成功的$100M等级球员签约的红袜人 也不令人意外。 Boras, in an interview with CBSSports.com, made clear what he thinks of the “ mid-range” market strategy and where he thinks Ellsbury stands, saying, “ Free agency is like the Navy. You can have a number of mid-range missiles, but they only work as long as you have the aircraft carrier to put them on.” Boras在CBSSports.com的访谈中声明他对「中阶市场策略」以及Ellsbury价值的想法： 「自由球员就向海军，你可以拥有一些中程飞弹，但是那要有航母来载才有用。」 "I think any team would say in a perfect world they would stick to shorter-term deals," Red Sox general manager Ben Cherington said Thursday. "There's always exceptions. We obviously made an exception in [Dustin] Pedroia's case." Ben Cherington在今天提及：「我想任何一支球队都只想短约，只是总是有例外。显然 小派就是其中一个例子。」 The Red Sox gave Pedroia an eight-year, $110 million deal when they signed him to an extension in July. 红袜在七月跟小派签了一纸八年、$110M的合约。 The implication in Boras' comment is that Ellsbury is an aircraft carrier. While some may not view him as a mega star, as Boras pointed out he is a former winner of a Gold Glove award and a Silver Slugger who's again leading his league in stolen bases. Boras的「暗示」中，Ellsbury就是航母。虽然一些人不认为他是巨星，不过Boras表示 他可是前金手套得主、银棒奖得主而且今年再度成为盗垒王领先者。 Some may point to Ellsbury's inability to get back to the slugging form of 2011, when he led the American League in total bases and finished second in MVP voting to Justin Verlander despite the Red Sox's historic collapse, but Boras points to Ellsbury's many attributes in positioning him as a major star in this marketplace, specifically noting his ability to steal 50 bases, score 100 runs and post a .750-plus OPS. 一些人认为Ellsbury再也无法像2011年那样干球─那年垒打数美联第一，而且虽然身处黑 暗的2011年却依然拿到MVP第二名─但是Boras表示他的各种贡献让他在市场上拥有巨星地 位，特别是50盗能力、得分100分以及超越.750 OPS的组合。 A couple executives on other teams mentioned B.J. Upton, who got a $75.2 million, five-year deal, as a possible free-agent comp, but that may be a management-leaning guess considering Upton's lack of consistency and low batting averages even before this year. (Yet other execs say they believe he'll indeed get nine figures). 一些他队经理表示Ellsbury可能会像B.J. Upton一样拿到五年$75.2M，但是那可能是带队 考量的猜测─因为Upton稳定性不佳，打击率也不高。(也有其他人说九位数正常)。 *** 在此补充Mark Polishuk的文章 http://t.co/WTW6wQFUGm Some executives tell Heyman that Ellsbury could be in line for a five-year/$75MM deal like B.J. Upton while others think the Boston outfielder will indeed crack the $100MM mark. My guess is that Ellsbury seems like a lock for a $100MM+ contract on the open market this offseason due to both his talents and because this winter's free agent outfielder market is rather slim. MLBTR's Tim Dierkes has had Ellsbury rated no lower than third throughout his 2014 Free Agent Power Rankings since the season began, and Ellsbury has claimed the No. 2 position (behind only Robinson Cano) for the last two months. 有些经理告诉Heyman说Ellsbury会拿到B.J. Upton等级的约，有些则说会拿超过$100M─ 尤其是他有一定的天份，更重要的是今年的外野手市场很小。Tim Dierkes在2014的FA Power Rankings中从没把Ellsbury放到前三名之外，近两个月更是都在第二名(输Cano)。 I used the Crawford deal as a comparison myself when I examined Ellsbury as a possible extension candidate back in March 2012. At the time Ellsbury was coming off the best season of his career -- a .321/.376/.552 slash line, 32 homers, 39 steals, 119 runs scored and a league-leading 364 total bases. Since then, Ellsbury has hit .287/.340/.403 with just 12 homers over 941 PA, though his 2012 season was limited to only 74 games due to injury. 2012年三月时，我个人用尻佛来比价，当时Ellsbury刚打出生涯年：.321/.376/.552、 32轰、39盗、119分以及联盟第一的364TB。2012年因为受伤只打74场(941PA)；成绩缩水 到.287/.340/.403、12轰。 My proposal at the time was a seven-year, $133MM deal between Ellsbury and the Red Sox that would have covered Ellsbury's 2013 season and his first six free agent years. Ellsbury hasn't kept up the power since then and he turns 30 years old next week. As we saw with Michael Bourn (another Boras client) last offseason, teams are hesitant to give major deals to speed-centric players entering their thirties. 那时我的建议是七年$133M，涵盖了今年球季以及接下来的六年。Ellsbury之後并没有拿 出一样的炮瓦出来，而我们也能看到Michael Bourn(也是Bora$客户)上季的状况，各队 对於要不要签下以速度为主的30岁球员感到相当迟疑。 *** Boras, meantime, suggested that not only is Upton not in the ballpark but that even Crawford comes up short as a player, as well. Jayson Werth's $126 million, seven-year deal may help Ellsbury's case, too, but Crawford is the one who seems obvious to mention since he's a speed player like Ellsbury, and more to the point, that was Boston's own deal. 不过Boras表示Ellsbury跟Upton不同等级，尻佛也比不上Ellsbury。Jayson Werth的七年 $126M似乎可以拿来参考，不过尻佛跟Ellsbury一样都是以速度为主的外野手，而且都是 红袜的球员。 “Two things separate Ellsbury [from Crawford]. Carl Crawford was never proven as a leadoff hitter, and Carl Crawford is not a center fielder,'' Boras said. “They are two different animals. It's not a consideration because he's a corner outfielder. Just think if Carl Crawford could play center field.” 「两人不同的地方在於：尻佛并没有证明他能稳坐首棒打者，而且他不是中外野手、是左 外野手。想像一下如果尻佛可以站CF的情形。」Boras说道。 Boras went on to mention a few other differences between Ellsbury and Crawford. “Carl Crawford never had success in Boston. And he never won a ring in Boston,'' Boras said. Plus, "Crawford never hit twenty home runs, and Jacoby hit 30," Boras added. 「尻佛不曾在红袜取得成功、不曾在波士顿拿过戒指，还有尻佛从没单季20轰过，而 Ellsbury打过30支。」 Boras also said that Ellsbury's "ceilings" of 30 homers (32 to be precise) and 70 stolen bases, though done in different years, are "unheard of." Plus, Boras pointed out that Ellsbury's .927 steal percentage this year ranks among the best alltime for someone with 50 attempts, and that few of the best best basestealers have been center fielders. Boras还说Ellsbury的「天花板」是30轰70盗，这是从没看过的事情。(不过这两个纪录 不是在同一年)，还有超过50盗的球员中，Ellsbury拥有最高的.927成功率；更重要的是 很少有顶尖盗垒者是中外野手。 Ellsbury won a ring with the Red Sox in 2007, hitting .438 in the World Series with a 1.188 OPS, and his overall career postseason average is .261. 2007年世界大赛中Ellsbury缴出.438打击率、1.188 OPS的成绩；生涯季後赛打击率.261。 It's been quite a positive run for him in Boston. But it's quite possible he may not be so long for Boston. Ellsbury在红袜的表现很优异，但也有可能要告一段落了。 Word is that owner Red Sox John Henry, who just saved himself some money with the eminently reasonable deal for star second baseman Pedroia, very much likes Ellsbury, and Ellsbury is said to have interest in staying, as well. But like usual it may come down to dollars and cents. 刚从小派合约省下不少钱的John Henry表示他很喜欢Ellsbury，而Ellsbury也有续留意愿 。不幸的是最後通常由钱决定结果。 It isn't known what Boston's offer was last winter, but Boston's baseball executives are said to continue to see merit in their “mid-range” winter strategy of a year ago, which is no surprise since it's helped catapult them into first place after their rough 2012 season. 现在仍不清楚红袜上次给的合约内容，不过据说红袜有意延续今年靠着「中阶」市场得到 成功的策略。今年如此的成功，会延续这种策略不令人意外。 And Boston honchos seemed to be preparing for the possibility of losing Ellsbury when they held tight to center field prospect Jackie Bradley Jr. at the trade deadline. They instead traded shortstop Jose Iglesias quite possibly in part because of their worries about an Ellsbury defection. One Boston-connected person said he believes Bradley is even better in center than Ellsbury, though it's obvious Bradley is as yet unproven as a major-league hitter. 还有红袜也已经准备好Ellsbury走时的备案─Jackie Bradley。他们选择交易掉鹰侠，正 是因为怕失去Ellsbury。有些红袜相关人士甚至相信JBJ比Ellsbury更优，虽然他还是个 尚未证明身手的菜鸟。 The one knock on Elllsbury, other than he's showed big power in only one year, has been about his ability to stay healthy. But while he's missed significant time in two seasons, Boras pointed out that his injuries were related to freak mishaps. 除了炮瓦只在一年出现之外，另一个疑虑是健康问题。但虽然他有两季缺赛很久，但 Boras指出那是意外。 “He has the genetics, like Johnny Damon. He's a durable player,” Boras said. “The only [significant] injuries he's had are collision injuries. They were due to exterior forces.” 「他有着像Damon一样的基因，他是个耐操的球员。他受到的大伤都是因碰撞造成的─都 是外力。」 Speaking of exterior forces, the issue ultimately will be about the marketplace. 说到外力，这个问题最终会影响市场价值。 Ellsbury hasn't hurt himself with a typical season at age 29; he's hitting .296 with eight homers, 51 stolen bases, 88 runs and a .775 OPS. Those are very close to his career averages. His career percentages are .297 and .788, and in his three previous full seasons, he's averaged 104 runs, 53 stolen bases and 16 home runs (including his big 2011). Ellsbury在典型的球季(29岁，今年)时没有受伤，他打出.296、八轰、51盗、88分以及 .775 OPS，这跟生涯平均(.297 BA, .788 OPS)很接近；过去三个完整球季的平均则是 104分、53盗、16轰。 The market should aid Ellsbury since many teams are awash in cash following another profitable year, and few stars populate the marketplace. After free-agent gem Robinson Cano, Ellsbury is seen as the player likely to land the next biggest contract. Among outfielders, there isn't a deep roster but rather a select few stars, including also Shin-Soo Choo, Hunter Pence, Nelson Cruz, Carlos Beltran and Curtis Granderson. Ellsbury的市场价值应该会随其他球队的抢夺而水涨船高，也少有球员能争抢他的市场地 位；Ellsbury很有可能成为第二贵的FA( < Cano)；剩下的外野手FA只有Shin-Soo Choo, Hunter Pence, Nelson Cruz, Carlos Beltran and Curtis Granderson。 -- ＊Athletic frame. ＊High baseball IQ. Xander ＊Smooth, fluid swing. Bogaerts ＊Elite batspeed. #01 ＊Strong and explosive hands. ＊Above-average-to-better power ceiling, potential 30 home run bat. --

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