http://tinyurl.com/cw38non SIGNING SHANE VICTORINO A MISTAKE FOR RED SOX by KIRK MINIHANE Just because we live in a world where Shane Victorino can make $39 million over three years doesn't mean it's OK to pay Shane Victorino $39 million over three years. Victorino拿的到39M/3yrs的约 不等於红袜该跟他签这个约 Maybe there is a long-term plan -- maybe this paves the way for trading Jacoby Ellsbury for legitimate starting pitching (which, let us not forget, is all that really matters) -- but as an individual baseball decision the addition of Victorino at that price is a mistake, plain and simple. 或许这为红袜开启了交易Ellsbury换SP的机会 但单就棒球观点 这笔约是个错误 Of the 144 major league players with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title last season, Victorino ranked 116th in OPS and 121st in slugging (that would be one spot ahead of Mike Aviles). I know we have been told not to care about batting average anymore, but for those of you dinosaurs who pay attention to that charming but antiquated statistic should note that Victorino hit a career-worst .255 in 2012, 20 points below his career average. 上季在打席数足够的球员里 Victorino的OPS仅排名116 SLG排名121(Aviles的前一名) 或许AVG不再是唯一重要的数据 但上一季他只打出生涯最差的.255 比生涯平均低了百分之2(生涯.275) So for the second time in as many days it appears Ben Cherington -- with many if not most of the local media only too happy to help with positive spin -- has overpaid for a player coming off of a lousy season. Isn't it supposed to be the other way? Understanding there has been shifts and guys almost always get paid more than they should, it still strikes me that Victorino should come closer to a buy-low candidate than an clear and obvious overpay. 对我而言 Victorino应该是个逢低买进的标的 而不是overpay的对象 And it really shouldn't matter that the Cleveland Indians had already offered Victorino $44 million over four years, as has been reported. Not a factor. If that's an actual option for Victorino, you let him go to Cleveland and find someone else. 就算笑脸人真的开了44M/4yrs的约 也不能改变39M/3yrs是overpay的 应该让Victorino去CLE I get the Napoli signing, I really do. I think it's too much money for a player who has played 113 and 108 games the last two seasons (still would like to know why Texas -- we all agree a pretty solid baseball organization, right? -- declined on the $13.3 qualifying offer to Napoli while the Sox were happy to triple it in both years and money) and is coming off of a 2012 line of .227/.343/.812, but I recognize the upside. 我认同该签Napoli 不过太贵了 前两季他只分别出赛了113跟108场 TEX会连13.3M的qualifying offer都不给 不是没有原因的 而我们在他低潮年後 给了他三倍的合约(虽然我也可以理解是出於他的upside) Victorino is a platoon player. This is not written to be hyperbolic, to get a rise, it is a statistical reality. And you'd think for $13 million a year you would at least get a platoon player who excels against right-handed pitching. That's not Victorino. Victorino只是个platoon球员 这不是夸张的说法 就算要给一个platoon球员一年13M 也该给个擅长打右投的(面对右投手的机会较多) In 2012 Victorino had a .229/.296./.333 line against righties. Now, to be fair, that came in the worst season of his major league career (it's true -- Victorino landed a $39 million deal after posting the worst OBP, slugging and batting average of his career, and we aren't exactly dealing with past numbers that will be confused with Miguel Cabrera's). So let's go just a year back to 2011. Victorino had a fine season, finishing with a slugging percentage of .491 and an OPS of .847. Guess what? He was still just a little better than average against righties -- slugged .455 with an OPS of .787 -- but destroyed lefties, an OPS of 1.032. 上个球季Victorino打右投只有.229/.296./.333 就算考虑到这三项数据都是他的生涯最低 有机会反弹 他表现很好的11年打右投也只有略高於平均的.787 OPS(打左投则是1.032) For his career Victorino has 2.979 plate appearances against right-handed pitching as a left-handed batter and his OPS is .732. In his last three seasons -- which, again, includes 2011, maybe the best of his career -- he has a .387 slugging percentage in 1,231 at-bats as a left-handed hitter (for some frame of reference, Darnell McDonald has a career .394 slugging percentage.) Victorino's struggles as a left-handed hitter were so profound last season that at the end of the year the switch-hitter began to hit right-handed against right-handed pitching. To some that might be a red flag, for the Red Sox it's evidently still another reason to go above market value. Victorino生涯2979个PA里 用左打面对右投只有.732的OPS 过去三个球季 用左打面对右投也只有.387的SLG 麦当劳的.394都比他高 也导致他在上赛季的最後 被迫用右打来面对右投手 这对红袜来说应该是一个警讯 And those other moves may happen this week. At some point Cherington will have to get around to finding some reliable starting pitching. And I'm not talking 38-year-old R.A. Dickey for the two best prospects in the organization, but someone who fits in the middle of the rotation and is under some club control contractually. Not an easy find, but an essential one. We can talk all day about chicken and beer and Bobby Valentine and chemistry and how much John Henry enables the players and all that stuff, but the Red Sox were the best team in baseball in August 2011 and have been 30 games below .500 since because of the starting pitching. If Cherington doesn't solve that, Napoli and Victorino are meaningless. 这礼拜可能还会有些动作 Cherington必须找几个可靠的SP 我不会拿两个最好的新秀去换38岁的Dickey 但可以便宜用几年的中段轮值倒是可考虑 8BV、啤酒炸鸡都是原因，但红袜从11年8月前全联盟最好的球队变成低於五成30场， SP的无力绝对是最主要的问题 不解决这点 签了Napoli跟Victorino也一样 It's very early, but the returns on the Era of Discipline have been David Ross, David Ortiz, Mike Napoli and Shane Victorino for about 110 million bucks. Not a disaster, but is anyone really overwhelmed by that haul? 回到重视纪律的年代後 签下David Ross、老爹、拿胖、Victorino不是不好， 但这些人还不足以拨乱反正 And Victorino is easily the worst of the four deals. American League batters had a .731 OPS last season. Victorino has a career .732 OPS against right-handed pitching. For roughly three-quarters of his at-bats Victorino is by definition an average hitter. And for that he will be paid $13 million for each of the next three seasons. 而Victorino的约是上面四笔里面最糟的 生涯对右投只有.732的OPS 换言之 四分之三的打席他都只是个平均水准的打者 而他接下来三个球季都要领走13M That may not qualify as undisciplined, but it's the worst move Ben Cherington has made in his tenure as general manager of the Red Sox. 这可能是Cherington接手後最糟的一个动作 --- 这篇是WEEI另一个专栏作者写的 可以跟前一篇对照正反观点 大家讨论看看~ --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 111.243.90.186 ※ 编辑: seekforever 来自: 111.243.90.186 (12/06 21:43)