Seven trades for Jacoby Ellsbury November, 9, 2012 By Jim Bowden | ESPN.com It wasn’t long ago that outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury looked like the face of the Boston Red Sox. His All-Star campaign in 2011 was highlighted by a .321 average, 32 home runs, 105 RBIs and 39 stolen bases. His five-tool prowess had finally developed, and he looked firmly entrenched as Boston's center fielder for years to come. 2011年Ellsbury的MVP级表现让他看起来像是袜袜的脸 Only a season later, things have spun 180 degrees. Ellsbury slogged through an injury-marred 2012 season, still managing to hit .271 in just 303 at-bats, but that 2011 season now seems long ago. Further, Ellsbury is eligible for free agency in a year and is represented by agent Scott Boras, who owns a healthy track record of taking his clients to free agency to maximize their financial opportunities. 一年後为伤所困的挣扎表现加上他的经纪人是Boras让事情出现了180度大转变 Considering that, it looks like the Red Sox have three options: 1.) Settle with Ellsbury on a one-year deal 2.) Take Ellsbury to arbitration, where he will make about $9.5 million on a one-year contract 3.) Trade Ellsbury 三个选项： 1. 另外跟他签一年约避免仲裁 2. 进仲裁，他可能拿到9.5M/y 3. 交易他 While Boston would love to sign Ellsbury to a long-term deal and keep him at Fenway Park, they most likely will have no choice but to test the trade waters to see what they can get for Ellsbury. With the Red Sox a couple seasons away from contention, this move makes sense. 袜袜还需要一两个球季才能竞逐冠军 现在测试Ellsbury的交易价值很合理 But first, Red Sox general manager Ben Cherington must identify the teams that need a center fielder, would be willing to trade for a “rental” player and could afford to add a $9.5 million player to its payroll. 首先必须先确认缺CF 愿意且有能力花9.5M在打工仔身上的球队 Because Ellsbury will be a one-year rental, Cherington probably knows he won’ t get equal return. However, he will start with a high asking price -- in some cases unreasonable -- and negotiate downward. And the Red Sox could have another shot at Ellsbury after the 2013 season since Boras will make certain he reaches the free agent market. 因为是租借性质 价码太高是没可能的 Boras肯定会让他进FA 有兴趣的话13季末袜袜可以跟其他人一起标 以下是几个可能的交易伙伴跟拿到的东西 Here are seven conversations Cherington should have with teams: 1. Atlanta Braves | trade targets: SS Nick Ahmed, RHP Julio Teheran The first place to look is the NL East, where the Braves, Washington Nationals and Philadelphia Phillies are all looking for short- and long-term solutions for center field. The Braves are set at shortstop for years to come with Andrelton Simmons, which makes Ahmed expendable. Ahmed, 22, was the Braves’ second-round pick in the 2011 draft and had a solid year at high Class A Lynchburg both offensively and defensively. He stole 40 bases. Teheran remains the Braves’ top pitching prospect, and once his command and control arrive, he should be a solid No. 2 or No. 3 starter for years to come. 勇士：SS Nick Ahmed, RHP Julio Teheran 勇士、国民、费城都缺CF 而且13都放眼国东冠军 勇士SS有Simmons做长期解答 11年第二轮的Nick Ahmed因而成为可交易的 22岁的Ahmed上个赛季在高阶1A攻守两端都有稳定的表现 盗了40个垒 （译注：.269/.337/.391/.728） Teheran一旦找回控球 在未来几年都会是不错的二三号 If the Red Sox could add Teheran to the young starters they acquired in the blockbuster deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers last summer (Allen Webster and Rubby De La Rosa), it would be a huge step forward in their retooling. Ellsbury would take Bourn’s spot in center field and keep the Braves primed for another postseason berth in 2013. Teheran、Webster、De La Rosa会让retool的脚步跨出一大步 Ellsbury则在13年能顶下Bourn离开留下的CF大洞 2. Los Angeles Angels | trade target: 1B C.J. Cron, OF Peter Bourjos How about an Angels outfield of Mike Trout, Jacoby Ellsbury and Mark Trumbo, with all three combined making less than Torii Hunter made in 2011? The Red Sox would get their long-term solution to first base in Cron and a middle-of-the-order bat that they can count on for years to come. Bourjos would give them Gold Glove defense in center field, and perhaps his bat would develop enough to eventually hit at the top of the lineup. Ellsbury for Cron straight up might even be fair value. 天使：1B C.J. Cron, OF Peter Bourjos 天使可以补Hunter离开的外野空缺 袜袜拿到长期的一垒解答跟未来的中心棒次Cron （译注：今年22岁在高阶1A 293/.327/.516/.843，不过是CALL联盟的数据） 加上金手套中外野Bourjos 他仍然有可能长成前两棒 不过Ellsbury单换Cron似乎比较公平 3. Los Angeles Dodgers | trade target: OF Andre Ethier This deal would give the Red Sox cost certainty and their long-term right fielder, as Ethier just signed a six-year $95.5 million deal through 2017 with a vesting option for 2018. The Red Sox have top center field prospect Jackie Bradley Jr. waiting in the wings to eventually take over the position long term. The Dodgers would then have an outfield of Matt Kemp, Ellsbury and Carl Crawford. When healthy, it would be the best in the National League with an incredible combination of speed and power. More importantly, the Dodgers would have their leadoff hitter. 道奇： OF Andre Ethier 袜袜拿到一个长期的RF解答 CF等Jackie Bradley Jr上来补 道奇组成Kemp, Ellsbury, CC的三CF外野 兼具速度跟力量 重点是 道奇获得了他们的第一棒 4. St. Louis Cardinals | trade targets: RHP Trevor Rosenthal, OF Jon Jay Rosenthal has ability and potential to be a Craig Kimbrel or Aroldis Chapman-type closer right now, and Jay could take over in center field in Boston. The Red Sox should stop dreaming about Andrew Bailey, Daniel Bard and Alfredo Aceves taking care of the final three outs of the game. Rosenthal can do that now with his 100-mph fastball. Odds are this discussion goes no further than the phone call, as the Cardinals love Rosenthal (who they might also try as a starter) and seem happy with Jay. 红雀：RHP Trevor Rosenthal, OF Jon Jay Rosenthal现在就有能力成为Kimbrel或Chapman那种CL Jay可以顶上袜袜的CF 袜袜该停止对Bailey, Bard, Aceves的幻想 Rosenthal可以用100mph的火球关好门 不过红雀没有做这交易的理由 他们缺的是SP 5. San Francisco Giants | trade targets: OF Gary Brown, RHP Heath Hembree The Giants have a chance to win three World Series in four seasons, and Ellsbury would help that cause immensely. He would give them a dynamite leadoff hitter and table-setter for Pablo Sandoval, Buster Posey and Hunter Pence in the middle. He’ll be able to run down balls in center field and will give them the additional power they have lacked. Brown is supposed to be their leadoff hitter of the future, but if they were willing to trade top pitching prospect Zach Wheeler for Carlos Beltran, they should consider this deal, too. The Red Sox should also ask for Hembree because he throws in the high 90s, and if his command in the zone ever arrives, he could be a candidate to be Boston's closer down the line. 巨人：OF Gary Brown, RHP Heath Hembree Ellsbury能大幅提升他们在四年内拿下三座WS的机率 Brown是未来的第一棒 （译注：Brown 今年23岁在2A .279/.347/.385/.731） 但如果巨人愿意拿Wheeler去换打工的Beltran 他们也应该考虑这交易 Hembree找的到好球带的话 有机会成为袜袜的CL （译注：今年23岁 在PCL WHIP 1.289 K/BB 36/20） 6. Seattle Mariners | trade target: RHP Taijuan Walker The Mariners have had the worst offense in the American League for three straight seasons, and they have approximately $30 million dollars to spend. Do they trade one of their top pitching prospects for offense as they did last year when they shipped Michael Pineda to the New York Yankees for catcher Jesus Montero? The Red Sox should ask for Walker, but my gut says Cherington would get a polite “no, thank you” from Mariners GM Jack Zdurinecik, who will then counter with an offer of one of lefties James Paxton or Danny Hultzen. If that happens, the Red Sox certainly should consider it. 水手：RHP Taijuan Walker 水手连三年都是AL最烂打线 今年有30M可花 去年做了一笔拿投手换打击的交易 袜袜会想要Walker 不过一下就会被打枪 如果有机会拿到Paxton或Hultzen 袜袜应该好好考虑 （译注：上述三个是水手前三投手新秀 今年都在全联盟TOP 100内） 7. Washington Nationals | trade targets: OF Brian Goodwin and RHP Alex Meyer Goodwin has been wowing scouts in the Arizona Fall League with his range, defense and bat. Meyer was very impressive in his pro debut last season in A-ball, where he went a combined 10-6 with a 2.86 ERA in 25 starts. Meyer was the Nationals’ first-round choice in 2011, and the Red Sox have been following him closely since they selected him the 20th round of the 2008 draft but weren’t able to sign him. Ellsbury would allow the Nationals to put Bryce Harper in one of the corners with Jayson Werth. A deal of this magnitude would put them among the NL’s early favorites to reach the World Series. 国民：OF Brian Goodwin and RHP Alex Meyer Goodwin在AFL攻守两端都让球探惊艳 11年第一轮Meyer第一个职业球季25场先发 缴出10-6 2.86ERA 袜袜曾经在08年第二十轮选过他 不过没能签下 Werth, Ellsbury, Harper的外野可以让国民成为进入WS的大热门 In the end, it’s doubtful any of these trade discussions will end up in a deal. The most likely scenario is Ellsbury ends up with a one-year deal at $9.5 million, and the Red Sox will revisit the trade market for him at next July’s trade deadline. That said, perhaps then we’ll revisit these trade discussions again when the probability of one of them happening will have increased significantly. 基本上上述提案都不大可能发生 就算发生也比较有可能在七月季中交易 --- 个人觉得Ellsbury不大可能被交易 因为我们外野已经空了两个位置了 如果打算从FA洒钱签人 那更没道理为了省钱交易Ellsbury换新秀 除非是像天使或红雀的那个提案 可以马上补洞 但我看不出他们有做这交易的理由 至於换Ethier...... 如果要洒那麽多钱给一个被左杀防守又在平均以下的 那不如直接在FA市场上洒就好 --

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