这是 BP Nate Silver 的文章，我把网址附在底下。 http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7975 http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7976 -------- 我简单翻译一下前言及规则的部分。 Welcome, ladies and gents, to the third annual Baseball Prospectus Ultimate Fantasy Draft. What, you are probably wondering, is the Baseball Prospectus Ultimate Fantasy Draft? It is the answer to this question: If you were starting a baseball team from scratch, which players would you want to build your team around? That is, which players would you take—and in what order would you take them—if your goal was to win as many championships as possible over the medium-to-long-term? 假如你想组一支冠军球队的话，你会选择哪些球员呢？ The specific ground rules of the UFD are as follows: 下面是规则。 。All players playing baseball in any professional league are eligible, including players in the minor leagues and players in professional leagues outside of North America. 只要是职业棒球选手都有资格被选。 。All present contracts are wiped out. In other words, price does not matter. 不考虑现在的合约。 。Major league service time is also wiped out—all players are treated as rookies. However, the structure of MLB's free agency rules is left intact. What this means is that you have six years of major league service time at your disposal before your player becomes a free agent. In most cases, this simply means that you'll get the player's 2008 through 2013 seasons—A-Rod's performance from age 32 through age 38, for example, or Jose Reyes from age 25 through age 30. But if the player is still developing, you're also allowed to stash him in the minor leagues and then start his service-time clock at some point in the future. 假设每个球员都可以便宜用 6 年。 。In spite of this being called the Ultimate Fantasy Draft, our goal is to assess value in a real-life baseball context, rather than in any sort of roto- or fantasy-specific context. 选择的重点放在能在现实中帮球队赢球的选手，而不是在 fantasy leagues 帮我们赚分 数的选手。 。The rankings are entirely forward-looking; we are not attempting to reward performance based on what has happened in the past (including what has happened so far in 2008). Instead, we are solely concerned with which players will create the most value for our team going forward. 只评估未来的表现。 。Off-field factors such as marketability are not considered, except to the extent that they affect on-field performance. So, Daisuke Matsuzaka does not get any extra credit because he helps you build your brand in Japan. 不考虑球场外的因素。 。Finally, we assume that your primary goal is to win the championship, taking risks as necessary in order to do so. What that means is that this list tilts heavily to upside over certainty. The UFD isn't for people who are content with second place. 目标是要拿冠军，所以一定得承担一些风险，因此选择的标准会着重於潜力，而不是确 定性。 These rankings take advantage of several proprietary Baseball Prospectus tools, including our PECOTA projection system, which produces seven-year projections for each player based on his historical comparables. Adam Jones could be the next Willie Mays, for example—or he could be the next Corey Patterson. However, we are by no means slaves to the numbers, as this sort of list necessarily requires us to lean heavily on our instincts and scouting impressions. Rankings from last year's list are contained in parentheses. 排名参考了很多数据，包含 PECOTA 预测系统，不过整体而言，这个排名还是比较偏向直 觉以及印象。括弧内是去年的排名。 -------- 评语基本上只贴红袜球员的，另外附上 Hanley Ramirez 和 Justin Verlander 的部分， 前者是因为他曾经是红袜的 top prospects 之一，而後者是因为内文把他拿来跟 Josh Beckett 比较。 1. Hanley Ramirez, SS, Marlins, Age 24 (6). Ramirez leads all major leaguers in VORP since the beginning of the 2007 season, narrowly edging out Alex Rodriguez. You can make a very sound argument, in other words, that Ramirez is already the best player in baseball, and since he is just 24 years old, that naturally leads to the conclusion that he is probably the most valuable long-term commodity. Also, look at what has happened to his batting eye. The only offensive skill that Ramirez didn’t have in abundance before was taking walks, but this year his walk rate has increased by more than 75 percent. Perhaps no player will ever match what A-Rod did over his first six or seven major league seasons, but Ramirez is the best positioned to give it a try. 2. David Wright, 3B, Mets, Age 25 (8). 3. Albert Pujols, 1B, Cardinals, Age 28 (1). 4. Evan Longoria, 3B, Rays, Age 22 (HM). 5. Grady Sizemore, CF, Indians, Age 25 (5). 6. Jose Reyes, SS, Mets, Age 25 (7). 7. Joe Mauer, C, Twins, Age 25 (2). 8. Alex Rodriguez, 3B, Yankees, Age 32 (10). 9. CC Sabathia, P, Brewers, Age 27 (17). 10. Johan Santana, P, Mets, Age 29 (3). 11. Brian McCann, C, Braves, Age 24 (9). 12. Jake Peavy, P, Padres, Age 27 (13). 13. Chase Utley, 2B, Phillies, Age 29 (22). 14. Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Tigers, Age 25 (4). 15. Tim Lincecum, P, Giants, Age 24 (41). 16. Curtis Granderson, CF, Tigers, Age 27 (HM). 17. Ryan Braun, LF, Brewers, Age 24 (--). 18. Brandon Webb, P, Diamondbacks, Age 29 (16). 19. Scott Kazmir, P, Rays, Age 24 (33). 20. Cole Hamels, P, Phillies, Age 24 (29). 21. Josh Hamilton, CF, Rangers, Age 27 (--). 22. Josh Beckett, P, Red Sox, Age 28 (--). See also Justin Verlander’s comment; Beckett’s strikeout and walk numbers have been just as good in 2008 as they were last year, even if they haven’t paid as many dividends in terms of the showcase statistics of wins and ERA. He’s still the American Leaguer you’d most want on the mound if you had to have somebody start a Game Seven. 23. Jay Bruce, OF, Reds, Age 21 (--). 24. Felix Hernandez, P, Mariners, Age 22 (15). 25. Justin Upton, RF, Diamondbacks, Age 20 (HM). 26. Russell Martin, C, Dodgers, Age 25 (HM). 27. Matt Holliday, LF, Rockies, Age 28 (--). 28. Joba Chamberlain, P, Yankees, Age 22 (--). 29. Ian Kinsler, 2B, Rangers, Age 26 (HM). 30. Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Nationals, Age 23 (11). 31. Dan Haren, P, Diamondbacks, Age 27 (--). 32. Matt Wieters, C, Orioles, Age 22 (--). 33. Jimmy Rollins, SS, Phillies, Age 29 (48). 34. Nick Markakis, RF, Orioles, Age 24 (--). 35. Prince Fielder, 1B, Brewers, Age 24 (47). 36. Lance Berkman, 1B, Astros, Age 32 (32). 37. Rich Harden, P, Cubs, Age 26 (HM). 38. Mark Teixeira, 1B, Angels, Age 28 (45). 39. Roy Halladay, P, Blue Jays, Age 31 (25). 40. Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Red Sox, Age 25 (--). For years, PECOTA had been touting Pedroia, while scouts would not take him seriously. When Pedroia started out his major league career hitting .182 in April, 2007, I thought I could see exactly what those scouts were seeing—with his short stature and his uppercut swing, he looked like a Little Leaguer trying to hit major league pitching. I promptly traded him in my roto league. For Yuniesky Betancourt. Obviously, I should have kept the faith, and let's give the Red Sox credit for sticking with their game plan. In a lot of organizations, like the Cubs or the Dodgers, Pedroia would have been banished to Triple-A, become frustrated, and wound up working at a car dealership. 41. Chad Billingsley, P, Dodgers, Age 23 (--). 42. Edinson Volquez, P, Reds, Age 24 (--). 43. Carlos Zambrano, P, Cubs, Age 27 (28). 44. Howie Kendrick, 2B, Angels, Age 24 (26). 45. Carlos Beltran, CF, Mets, Age 31 (12). 46. B.J. Upton, CF, Rays, Age 23 (50). 47. Geovany Soto, C, Cubs, Age 25 (--). 48. Dan Uggla, 2B, Marlins, Age 28 (--). 49. John Lackey, P, Angels, Age 29 (--). 50. Matt Kemp, CF, Dodgers, Age 23 (--). Honorable Mention Erik Bedard, P, Mariners, Age 29 (Unranked Last Year). Clay Buchholz, P, Red Sox, Age 23 (--). The results in Beantown haven't been pretty—a 2-8 record and a 6.35 ERA thus far on the season. But Buchholz's strikeout rate remains solid, and we need to grade on a curve for any 23-year-old pitching against AL East competition. The way to think of Buchholz is as a prospect rather than as a finished product. If Buchholz were still in Triple-A, he'd be dominating the league and would rank among the top half-dozen prospects in baseball; we rate him accordingly. Matt Cain, P, Giants, Age 23 (--). Robinson Cano, 2B, Yankees, Age 25 (27). Adam Jones, CF, Orioles, Age 22 (--). Chipper Jones, 3B, Braves, Age 36 (--). Cliff Lee, P, Indians, Age 29 (--). Jonathan Papelbon, RP, Red Sox, Age 27 (Honorable Mention Last Year). Papelbon holds his HM spot from last year; his performance, if anything, has gotten better. But until closers start to be used more in the old Willie Hernandez mold, and pitching 120 innings a season rather than 60, it is going to be extremely hard for one of them to crack the Top 50. Jhonny Peralta, SS, Indians, Age 26 (--). David Price, P, Devil Rays, Age 22 (--). Ben Sheets, P, Brewers, Age 29 (--). Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Rockies, Age 23 (--). Justin Verlander, P, Tigers, Age 25 (49). Which of these two pitchers is having the better season? IP H HR BB SO Pitcher A 186 187 21 60 124 Pitcher B 186 165 17 75 146 Pretty close, huh? Pitcher A has given up fewer walks, but Pitcher B has an advantage in strikeouts and limiting base hits. The first pitcher is Justin Verlander in 2006, when he had a 3.63 ERA and a 17-9 record. The second pitcher is Justin Verlander this year, with his statistics extrapolated out to the same number of innings pitched. But this year, his ERA is 4.60, and his record is 9-13. There is a lot of luck inherent in pitching statistics, and this year, Verlander has gotten the worst of it, but that doesn't make him a worse pitcher. --

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