在BASEBALL ANALYSTS(http://baseballanalysts.com/)有一篇文章 So I Went to a Baseball Game Last Night(By Patrick Sullivan) 在最後提到了Youkilis，节录如下（翻译部份大家凑和着看就好) 3) With his second home run of the game (a frozen rope over the monster) to give the Red Sox a lead in the bottom of the eighth last night, Kevin Youkilis got Fenway feeling like loud, intense, playoff-push Fenway again. And really, it's time to start talking about Youk as an MVP candidate. I don't necessarily think he is the most deserving candidate, but you look up and down BP's VORP list and A-Rod isn't getting it, and nobody from the Rangers or Indians is either. That leaves Youk, who is now hitting .316/.384/.564 while mixing in some good defense and big moments as well. With Mike Lowell potentially heading to the DL, he will also get to display his defensive versatility, which should only help his case. Youkilis棒子烫到不行，让人会把他联想到MVP的角逐中，在VORP的排行中，目前领先 Youk的的除了A-Rod外，其它都来自TEX/CLE。而他的好防守也可以在MVP角逐中帮忙他。 At first glance you might think Youkilis is a great candidate for a nice pre-arb free agent deal but I am not so sure. He is slugging 100 points higher than his career slugging percentage this season and at age 29, it's hard to imagine him getting much better. He has publicly expressed frustration in the past with how the Red Sox managed his service time clock early in his career and right now he looks like a man on a mission. He wants that big free agent deal. So if you're the Red Sox, you can; 乍看之下Youk应该可以赢得一张在仲裁前的自由球员合约(pre-arb free agent deal)。 但我不这麽认为，Youk今年SLG比生涯平均高上.100而他是29岁，很难想像Youk会再进步 。而Youk曾经公开表示他对於红袜高层在他生涯早期的上场时间感到沮丧而他现在他是 个真货。他想要一张大合约，所以如果你是the cold-blood Theo，你可以: - Extend him (say, four years $40 million), and run the risk that his incentive structure becomes out of whack. 签个长约，4年40M，然後冒着今年是fluke的风险 - Let him play out these years, needing to grind for every penny. The risk here is that relations become strained between Youk and the club but beyond that, what's the downside for the Red Sox here? That they lose out on him to the highest bidder for his 32-37 seasons? Oh well, I am sure that's a fate they can live with. 让Youk在FA之前留在袜军，压榨任何一毛钱。这样的风险是Youk跟袜军高层会搞得很紧 张。但这麽做袜军不利的一面是什麽呢? 袜军会不会是那个最高的出价者而失去他在 Youk32-37岁时。 Oh, 我想那是袜军可以面对的结果。 If I am the Red Sox I'd keep that fire lit under his ass and make him go year-to-year until he becomes unrestricted. Then you make your call if you want to enter the bidding. 如果我是袜军，我会在Youk屁股上点火每年都好好打球直到他成为FA。然後在决定是否 要竞标他。 我的心得： Youkilis是我很喜爱的球员，往年下半季开始鸟蛋的情况今年反而整个改变。可以看出 来他在这个问题有下过功夫。我想或许是他就是那种不具备显见的顶极天赋使得他在27 岁(06年)才站稳MLB。而进入球员生涯的高峰期打出了至今Career Year的成绩很是替他 高兴。当然希望他打败EE的A-Rod拿下MVP。 另外就是作者提到是不是要在现在或今年跟Youk签下一张大合约的问题。这部份很值得 玩味，作者点出了GM在面对球员及合约的想法。 球员的立场其实没什麽讨论的。不值得讨论的原因有 一、球员当然希望有大合约。 二、还在仲裁期间球员的没有什麽决定权。 而球团的立场就如作者所说，一方面当然是不希望跟Youk搞僵（虽然Youk已经有点不满了 ），但的确，最好的策略可能就是一年一年仲裁，到了FA，Youk也32岁，到时再来签大约 也不迟（当然要冒着Youk不想待在袜军的风险）。 而在球迷的立场，当然是希望喜爱球员一直待着。但Business Is Business，不值得的球 员就不会有Theo的爱，从Normar,Pedro,Manny的例子历历在目。虽然不愿意这麽想，但老 爹的伤通问题可能会使他终有一天离开袜军。 而也因为我们有The Cold-Blood Theo，你会预期在他任内，袜军永远是playoff contender. -- 生涯563 本的十月先生Reggie Jackson: "每个打者都喜欢快速球, 就像所有人都喜欢吃冰淇淋 但如果有人以加仑为单位往你嘴巴里塞冰淇淋, 可就一点都不喜欢 当Nolan Ryan 用快速球让你措手不及的时候, 就是这种机歪的感觉" --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.113.23.101 ※ 编辑: flywhale 来自: 140.113.23.101 (08/14 15:48) ※ 编辑: flywhale 来自: 140.113.23.101 (08/14 15:52) ※ 编辑: flywhale 来自: 140.113.23.101 (08/14 16:45)