Three years from now could find the dominant Rays pitching staff the best in baseball. Today, however, the Rays' pitchers are already better than New York's. Using Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA projections, considered the most accurate available, the outstanding Replacement Level Yankees Weblog shows the Rays allowing six runs fewer than the Yankees this season. Likewise, David Pinto used PECOTA to show that the Rays' starters, overall, project to have a lower ERA than the Yankees starters. Although the 24-year-old Kazmir might be the most experienced of Rays' 5-man rotation (which will include, in addition to Shields and Garza, young Andy Sonnanstine and either Jason Hammel or the former Future Star Edwin Jackson), all five of the projected starters are expected to have more experience in the majors than the key trio of rookie Yankees mentioned above. In the bullpen, the Yankees have the peerless Mariano Rivera, but the Rays bullpen also has more this-year potential than the rest of the Yankees', with the Rays' no-name guys like Juan Salas and Trever Miller as good as or better than the Yankees' no-name guys like Jeff Karstens and Matt DeSalvo. This assumes, of course, that key bullpen players like 38-year-olds Troy Percival and Al Reyes can hold up. A major bullpen injury for the Rays brings the whole house down. 在往後的三年里面，Rays会有着全大联盟最棒的投手阵容。但最起码在今天为只他们的投 手阵容已经好过了Yakees。Replacement Level Yankees Weblog利用了目前大家公认最为 准确的BP PECOTA中的预测认为Rays今年球季的投手失分会比Yankees来的少。此外David Pinto使用了PECOTA预测了所有Rays的先发投手，他们”全部”的ERA都会比Yankees的低 。虽然才24岁的Kazmir已经是Rays五人先发轮值里面最有经验的投手（包括了Shields和 Garza,年轻的Andy Sonnanstine 和Jason Hammel或者明日之星Edwin Jackson），所有的 预测的先发投手将预期可以比Yankees一直强调的三大年轻主投有着更多机会在大联盟来 吸取经验。牛棚方面，Yankees的牛棚有着金枪不倒的Mo，但是Rays的牛棚在今年可以比 Yankees有着更多的可能性让球队安心，来看看Rays那几个无名小卒Juan Salas和Trever Miller都比Jeff Karstens 和Matt DeSalvo来的棒多了。这个假定当然是牛棚关键人物 Troy Percival和Al Reyes稳住。牛棚要角如果受伤可能会带给Rays巨大的灾难。 Although the Rays’ pitching already outstrips the Yankees, the hitting still lags when compared head-to-head, though not as much as many think. At catcher, New York has a possible Hall-of-Famer in Jorge Posada. Rays catcher Dioner Navarro had his first at bat in majors at age 20, an extraordinarily young age for the position. 即便是Rays已经准备要超过Yankees，他们打击在一对一比较之後还是稍嫌弱势，不如许 多人所想的一样。在捕手方面NY有未来的HoFer Posada。Rays的捕手Dioner Navarro则是 在20岁的时候就已经在大联盟有着第一个打席机会，这在捕手这位置来说是异常诡异的。 Now 24, he has the youth and talent to improve substantially on his 70 OPS+ from 2007. Even so, he’s a dice roll. Posada is far better today but the gap could close somewhat in 2008. 现在他24岁，年轻且有潜力去证明他去年球季OPS+70不是侥幸来的。即便如此，他还是个 滚动的骰子。目前来看来Posada还是比他好上许多，但在今年两人在某些方面的差距会越 来越接近。 At first base, a Pena encore of last season would vastly outperform the plummeting Jason Giambi and his platoon partner Wilson Betemit, a utilityman who hits like one. 一垒手部分，去年爆炸的Pena乐胜已经垂垂老矣的Giambi和他的替换者Betemit，Betemit 看来比较像是一个工具人。 The Yankees have a huge advantage at shortstop and third base, both of which are manned by Hall of Famers still in their primes, Bartlett's defense and Longoria's promise notwithstanding. 在三垒和游击上面Yankees则是大胜，Yankees的三垒手和游击手都是一流的未来名人堂人 选，Bartlett'的防和Longoria目前的评价还没能够比上。 At second base, the Yankees' Robinson Cano has become a legitimately dangerous hitter, but the jury is still out on Iwamura. Iwamura battled freak injuries last season that limited him to fewer than 500 at bats. 在二垒守方面，Yankee的Cano未来将会成为一位可怕的打者，但目前看来Iwamura还是比 较棒一些。Iwamura去年一直被怪病缠身，使的他最後的打数没有到500个打席。 In a full season's play, the outstanding Iwamura should meet Cano's contributions, especially when defense is taken into account. In the outfield, Crawford is better than any Yankee outfielder, showing far more speed and defensive ability than Johnny Damon, more power and contact hitting ability than the present-day Bobby Abreu, and more all-around ability than Melky Cabrera. Only the declining and injury-prone Hideki Matsui has had marginally superior hitting numbers to Crawford's 2008, but Crawford blows past Matsui on the basepaths and sparks the team. In terms of pure hitting, Upton was better as a rookie than Crawford or any Yankee outfielder, and he will only get better. In the other outfield position, Cliff Floyd/Jonny Gomes/Eric Hinske all have the ability to put up nice numbers. 在整个球季的比赛中，Iwamura的节出表现和Cano对Yankees的贡献相比将会是势均力敌的 ，特别是将防守表现列入计算的话。在外野方面，Crawford比任何一位Yankees的外野手 还要优秀，在速度以及防守能力上面都比Johnny Damon还要好，爆发力以及及球能力上都 比现阶段的Bobby Abreu优秀，且all-around(这边该如何翻译较佳？)的能力比Melky “ HoFer” Cabrera要来的优秀。只有日渐衰退且伤病缠身的松井秀喜在打击表现上面会比 2008年Crawford要好一点点，但Crawford在垒包移动上大胜松井且使这支球队充满了查克 拉。纯就打击上来看，Upton比Crawford在或任何一位Yankee的外野手菜鸟时候来的优秀 ，而且他只会更好。在任何外野位置上，Cliff Floyd/Jonny Gomes/Eric Hinske都有能 力可以交出不错的数字。 Although the superiority of the Yankees at short, third, and catcher is profound, the Rays have pulled even or ahead of New York at all other offensive positions and in the pitching staff as a whole. The gap between the two teams is not large. The Replacement Level Yankees Weblog's PECOTA-based project gave the Rays a 27% likelihood of a playoff spot, defining the term "puncher's chance." Everyone who has paid attention to the Rays' rise knows the outrageous flood of young talent still to come over the next few years, but with the recent five-year run of out-of-nowhere teams competing for the World Series, no one should discount the Rays' chances this season. 即便在游击，三垒以及捕手上面Yankees都还占有优势，Rays在其他位置上的攻击力以及 投手的整体能力还是胜过Yankees一截。两队之间的差距已经越来越小了。The Replacement Level Yankees Weblog的PECOTA-based project给了Rays 27趴的机会将会 抢到今年季後赛的一张门票，并将其定义为”小牧童的机会”。任何对Rays崛起有注意的 人都知道，这支球队有着作弊般的年轻潜力并且在未来数年会不断的发展出来，但是在如 果说近五年这一支突然出头的球队将可挑战WS，不会有人在这一球季对这支球队打任何折 扣。 全文完 ------------------------------------ 本文请勿转至Ptt MLB版以及Yankees版，泄泄 ------------------------------------ -- Do you know what I most hate about? The PUSSY has a GUN on "his" hand! SHUT'EM UP -------Mr. Smith --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 219.84.219.54 ※ 编辑: majohn 来自: 219.84.219.54 (06/01 06:03) ※ majohn:转录至看板 Devil-Rays 06/01 06:12