------------------------------------------ 本文请勿转到MLB版以及洋基版，泄泄！其他版请告知 ------------------------------------------ 有点久的文章 翻这个目的是可以让大家看看预测和现在状况有没有差太多 之後会翻译红袜的预测 文章後面还有一些没翻完，晚点有空会补上 出处：http://0rz.tw/493TR Tuesday, April 08, 2008 Looking Forward to 2008: Tampa Bay Rays Why the Rays are Better than The Yankees...right now (in certain important facets of the game) Those of us who recall the dying days of the Soviet Union - perestroika, the shockingly successful Lithuanian independence movement, the ecstatic rupture of the Berlin Wall - know the surprising satisfaction of an Evil Empire’s fall. (Those too young to remember the Soviet chill and the pointless atomic bomb drills in junior high school can consider the sudden downfall of Emperor Palpatine and his Galactic Empire.) 让我们来想想苏联在崩解时候的那一段时光：经济改革，立陶宛独立革命的成功及影响， 干倒柏林围墙的欢乐。对於邪恶帝国的瓦解带给所有人欢乐。（那些太幼齿没有办法去想 像苏联政权的寒冷以及核子武器威胁的小鬼们可以去想想看在星际大战里面的白卜庭和他 的银河帝国。） Certainly, in the immediately previous years few predict its demise. Reagan’ s Berlin plea to “tear down this wall” was widely panned by liberal publications, especially in skittish Europe, and the destruction of the rebel base on the ice planet Hoth looked like a death knell for rebel resistance against the Galactic Empire. Baseball's New York empire poached Jason Giambi, Johnny Damon, Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, and other superstars from rivals, which, a the time, seemed ominous signs of the Yankees’ limitless funds and continued dominance. 当然拉，这些事情发生在之前就已经有了徵兆。雷根弟弟呼喊着”哭倒这座墙吧！”被广 泛着在民主国家传颂着，特别是在那些墙头草欧洲国家，就如同那些在Hoth冰冻星球对抗 着银河帝国的反抗者们已经敲响了银河帝国的丧钟(注一)。棒球中的洋基帝国抢了Jason Giambi, Johnny Damon, Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson以及其他竞争队伍的明星，而在 此同时我们就已经看到了因为没有任何薪资上限所带来的恶兆。 注一：我对星际大战不熟，有没有谁能解释一下这个梗？ Today, the Yankees are wounded (Pettitte, Matsui) and staggering (Mussina, Giambi) and have the misfortune of playing in what is still baseball’s most difficult division. To be sure, the Yankees’ talent prompts some to claim that New York's offense is on par with baseball’s best – a reach that ignores the injuries and declines that will surely beset their older players. This aging core combines with the addition of an vengeful, personality-challenged manager, the arrival of a bombastic and arrogant owner, a dangerous reliance on three rookies to stabilize the pitching staff, and the ongoing tragedy of New York’s irrational dislike of the best player in baseball, a collective rejection that has this great talent often playing tight as Scrooge McDuck. Because of all this, the Yankees have the potential to provide awesome entertainment in the legacy of the America’s Most Horrific Car Crashes-style cable series. 今天，洋基里面伤的伤(Pettitte, Matsui)，步履蹒跚的蹒跚(Mussina, Giambi)，而且 更虽洨的是他们正好处在棒球最艰困的分水岭中。要知道一点，洋基的能力使的某些人认 为他们的进攻能力仍然是最好的-当然这要忽略他们那些受伤 或者衰退的”优质”老家伙 。这一批成熟(或老化)的中心打者串连在一起由一位具有复仇心，特殊的个人特质，夸大 且自傲的球团拥有者所掌控，并且依靠三名菜鸟投手带给他们安定感，这一些东西夹杂在 一起使的目前的洋基看起来一点都不像是一只最好的棒球队，蒐集人家不要的过气球星习 惯使得这之球队表现起来往往就和Scrooge McDuck一样(注二)。 注二：http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scrooge_McDuck 应该是唐老鸭之类的八 The Red Sox, on the other hand, have established themselves as baseball’s elite without peer, both for current and future success. The Blue Jays have been snake bit in ways that always hamstring teams with limited depth. They seemed stronger this season, but continue their unlucky run with Scott Rolen out for a month. Both teams, and especially the Sox, are likely to frustrate the Yankees all season. This year's odd team out, the Orioles, are carrion. 另外一方面，红袜队对於他们自己的建军方式则是大两使用自家杂鱼而不是依靠那些大牌 ，这也是当前最夯的方法并且带给他们成功。蓝鸟之前看起来似乎在这一季能够在你背後 很火的表现出来，但持续的虽洨以及Scott Rolen挂点了一个月之後则是处於跛脚而且半 残废状态。这两支球队，特别是肥袜，可能未来几季都能够把洋基打的屁滚尿流。喔靠背 ，少说一只球队喔，金莺？那支球队不是3A的嘛？ And then we have the Devil Rays, whose raft of early-round draft picks over its first decade of play, plus their recent delightful run of successful signings and trades, have finally (finally!) turned the team into an intriguing, youthful mixture of power-speed athleticism. Whereas in the past, the team would have been satisfied to find a hard-throwing high-school teacher or two (or, worse, Shawn Camp and Ruddy Lugo) to fill off-season needs, this year’s team has fully transformed both its traumatizing bullpen and its horrific defense. Preseason computer simulations predict the Rays have improved their pitching/defense combination by a remarkable 200 runs – a 33-win improvement based on a 6-run/win formula. (Simplistic calculation, yes, but the broader point remains.) 至少我们还有Rays（编按：原文还没有改过来，我这边自行帮他修正），这支球队有蒐集 最近几年来所有前段选秀好手的嗜好，加上最近一些不错的签约和交易，终於(终於喔！) 不是”那种球队”了，也不是”软柿子”，转变成一只吸引人且有力量及速度的年轻球队 。在过去，这支球队满足於找那些hard-throwing的高中老师来(或者更糟，像Shawn Camp 和Ruddy Lugo)满足季外的需求（注三），今年球队完全将他们悲惨的牛棚以及让人生畏 的防守改变过来。在季前的电脑预测中，Rays在他们的pitching/defense电脑模拟预测 Rays可多得200分;以6分一胜计算,可多33胜。 注三：这段话看有点没有，有请达人 To accomplish this, the team practically turned over its entire starting roster. At shortstop, the Rays brought in a defensive wizard, , who replaces the overmatched Brendan Harris, creating a swing of more than 30 defensive runs alone. Akinori Iwamura moves to 2B and replaces, primarily, the defensively challenged B.J. Upton, whose speed, athletic ability and powerful arm now makes him an exciting, but unproven, option for CF. Iwamura won six Japanese Gold Gloves and was adequate at 3B for the Rays, though he did make some outstanding defensive plays. He moves in preparation for Evan Longoria who, for all the hullabaloo over his being assigned to AAA for a few weeks, will soon be established at 3B for Tampa Bay for many years. Newcomer Cliff Floyd was a defensive asset for the Cubs last season, whereas the departed Delmon Young was a strong liability. Meanwhile, incumbent Carl Crawford is one of the league’s elite outfield defenders. With the exception of the weak-hitting Bartlett, the Rays' defensive transformation maintained their offensive potential. 为了达成这一目标，球队改变了他们的先发名单。在游击手方面，Rays找来了Jason Bartlett这一位防守魔术师来替代Brendan Harris，Bartlett可以替Rays档下超过三十分 的分数。Akinori Iwamura被移防到二垒，用来替代在二垒防守上有问题的B. J. Upton， 这一位具有速度，运动能力，强力手臂的年轻选手，目前成为了一位极被关注，但还未证 实的未来之星，则被移防到了中外野。Iwamura过去在日本得过六次金手套奖且在Rays的 三垒防线表现的中规中矩，并有几次节出的防守表现。Iwamura的移防也被认为是在剃 Evan Longoria做准备，他在几个星期以前在一片喧闹声中被重新指派到3A，而他已经准 备好要在未来几年担任Rays主力三垒手的位置。新签下的Cliff Floyd去年在小熊最大价 值在於他的防守能力，然而失去了Delmon Young对於Rays来说或许是一项很大的损失。同 时，Carl Crawford可以算是联盟中最棒的外野手之一。搭配上被预期打击表现不会太好 的Bartlett，这一些在防守上的转变可以确保他们攻击潜力不被消耗。 Meanwhile, the pitching staff also improved dramatically. In addition to Bartlett the Delmon Young trade brought in Matt Garza, whose minor league numbers were nearly identical to the Yankees’ overhyped Phil Hughes. Garza allowed a fifth of a hit per inning more than Hughes over his minor league career, and their K/9 and BB/9 rates were mirror images. Garza backs up Scott Kazmir, the reigning AL strikeout leader who has so far defied scouts' predictions that he will break down, and James Shields, another budding ace. Shields’ breakout 2007 season was one of the Rays’ biggest surprises, marred only by the Rays’ desperate bullpen problems. In Shields’ 30 starts, the bullpen allowed 6 of Shields’ inherited runners to score (a low number only because Shields was almost always replaced to start an inning), but it allowed 57 of its own runners to score, a pattern that routinely turned 4-2 leads into 6-4 losses. 在此同时，投手的能力值也有显着的提升。此外在Delmon Young交易中换过来的Matt Garza，他可不是杂鱼喔。他在小联盟的成绩和洋基的Phil Hughes相当。他在小联盟生涯 中平均每局被打的安打数优於Hughes（注四），而他们的k/9以及BB/9跟本是一模一样的 。Garza可以支援Kazmir，美联三振的领先者。Kazmir在过去曾被许多球探唱衰说未来将 会崩溃，而他现在正在挑战这些大仙的预言。还有James Shields，另一位正在萌芽的Ace 。Shields在去年的大爆发是Rays最大的惊奇，但他的好表现却被去年糟糕的牛棚砸了不 少。在他三十场的先发里面，牛棚只让Shields留在垒上的跑者跑回来得到六分(这部分丢 分较低是因为他通常在该局开始时候就被换下去惹)，但牛棚却自己丢了57分，所以我们 常看到一场原本4-2领先的球赛最後变成6-4输球。 注四：allowed a fifth of a hit per inning指的是？ Shields’ Apr. 22 start against Cleveland was especially galling. Shields had raised eyebrows with his early-season effectiveness but on this day he was masterful. By the end of the eighth, he had given up two hits, one a Jhonny Peralta homerun, against 12 strikeouts. He left with a 4-2 lead. Ninth inning arrives. Shields is replaced by Brian “Flash Fire” Stokes. HBP. Out. Walk. Single. 3-Run Home Run. Indians win. Shields在4/22对上印地安人那场比赛更是难堪。Shields在季初时候才刚崭露头角，而在 这一场比赛他更是大杀四方。在第八局结束时候，他只被打了两支安打，包括一只 Peralta的全垒打，k了十二人。他下场时候还是4-2领先。在第九局时候，火球男Stokes 上来接替Shields。畜生球，出局，保送，一安，三打点全垒的，印地安人获胜。 This happened constantly, and the constant bullpen meltdowns (you would have to go back to the ‘50s to find a worse collective bullpen performance) quickly drained the energy from the season. This obscured not only Shields’ emergence but also the arrival of the Rays’ young hitters. Crawford, whose OBP reached .350 for the first time, emerged into an elite leadoff hitter. B.J. Upton’s development was faster than Crawford’s, with Upton posting a 134 OPS (including a .386 OBP) as a 22-year-old, 17 points higher than Crawford’s career high. But the man with the magic bat last season, and one of the few Devil Rays to swing out of obscurity with such speed, was Carlos Pena. Pena's minor league numbers showed patience and a talent for extra base hits. In 2002, Billy Beane snatched him from Texas, then quickly flipped him with Jeremy Bonderman to Detroit in a three-way trade that foisted Jared Weaver on the Yankees. (Oakland got Ted Lilly.) For three-plus seasons in Detroit, Pena disappointed with low batting averages and unremarkable power. 这种状况常常发生，牛棚随时的膛炸把球队所累积起来的能量消耗殆尽（你大概要回到50 年代才看的到这种欢乐牛棚）。这种让人失去光芒的状况不只发生在Shields身上，也如 同传染病一样传到年轻打者身上。Crawford他的OBP在一开始时候可以到达0.350，他是一 个表现良好的首棒打者。Upton的成长更是快过於Crawford，以22岁年纪便有着134 OPS ( 还有0.386 OBP)比Crawford生涯成绩还要高出17个百分点。但去年有一个打者他大概吃了 打击果实，也是少数去年能够在Devil Rays发光发热的选手，他是Carlos Pena。他在小 联盟时期数据已经表现出他那种打击时候的耐心以及长打能力。在2002年时候，豆爷从游 骑兵手上把他给偷了过来，然後在一个三方交易中迅速把他和Bonderman换到了老虎且把 Jered Weaver丢到洋基去(运动家得到ted Lilly)。在老虎的三个球季，Pena表现让人失 望，打击率低，爆发力也不见了。 After bouncing around the AL East in 2006, the phenom-turned-journeyman failed to make the Devil Rays out of spring training last year, only to be called up before Opening Day due to injury. By May, Pena was hitting .213, then U-turned to rewrite the Rays’ record book with an out-of-nowhere career year that earned him MVP votes and the AL Comeback Player of the Year Award. The 2008 season will show whether Pena is more Luis Gonzales or Brady Anderson, but he'll always be the man who took Aubrey Huff's team home run record away. 经历了06年在美东的活跃，这位优秀的打工学徒在春训时候获得了Devil Rays的邀请，但 因为受伤原因一直到开幕之前才被拉上来。在五月时候，Pena打击率0.213，但接着开始 大变身并以生涯最佳表现改写Devil Rays的记录本。这位不知道从哪边冒出来（ out-of-nowhere）的打者为自己挣得了MVP票选以及美联年度最佳东山再起奖。在08年咱 们可以看看Pena会比较像Luis Gonzales或Brady Anderson，但无论如何，他已经改写了 Aubrey Huff的队史记录。 The increased competitiveness of the Rays' Major League team is backed by a pipeline of outstanding talent on the way – especially a number of pitchers who are superior to the Yankees’ touted prospects, including the overhyped Joba Chamberlain, who is so good that he can’t be trusted to start a game at the moment. An honest comparison of righties Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, and Ian Kennedy to the Rays top three pitching prospects – David Price, Wade Davis, and Jake McGee – must include the fact that Price and Davis are unhittable power lefties, and also ignores that Jeff Niemann is closer to the Show. Rays在大联盟中的竞争力已经开渐渐回归到他们杰出潜力所该有的表现中-特别是那几位 比洋基宣称深不见底农场农作物还要优秀的投手，包括了自high过头(overhype)的Joba Chamberlain，他是如此优秀以致於不能被马上被信任的放在先发位置(科科，好酸)。让 我们来诚实的比较Chamberlain, Phil Hughes以及Ian Kennedy和Rays的三个prospects- David Price, Wade Davis和Jake McGee-必须了解到一点，Price和Davis都是有让人连球 都摸不到的强力左投，同时这边也还没有把Niemann给放进来呦。 Three years from now could find the dominant Rays pitching staff the best in baseball. Today, however, the Rays' pitchers are already better than New York's. Using Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA projections, considered the most accurate available, the outstanding Replacement Level Yankees Weblog shows the Rays allowing six runs fewer than the Yankees this season. Likewise, David Pinto used PECOTA to show that the Rays' starters, overall, project to have a lower ERA than the Yankees starters. Although the 24-year-old Kazmir might be the most experienced of Rays' 5-man rotation (which will include, in addition to Shields and Garza, young Andy Sonnanstine and either Jason Hammel or the former Future Star Edwin Jackson), all five of the projected starters are expected to have more experience in the majors than the key trio of rookie Yankees mentioned above. In the bullpen, the Yankees have the peerless Mariano Rivera, but the Rays bullpen also has more this-year potential than the rest of the Yankees', with the Rays' no-name guys like Juan Salas and Trever Miller as good as or better than the Yankees' no-name guys like Jeff Karstens and Matt DeSalvo. This assumes, of course, that key bullpen players like 38-year-olds Troy Percival and Al Reyes can hold up. A major bullpen injury for the Rays brings the whole house down. Although the Rays’ pitching already outstrips the Yankees, the hitting still lags when compared head-to-head, though not as much as many think. At catcher, New York has a possible Hall-of-Famer in Jorge Posada. Rays catcher Dioner Navarro had his first at bat in majors at age 20, an extraordinarily young age for the position. Now 24, he has the youth and talent to improve substantially on his 70 OPS+ from 2007. Even so, he’s a dice roll. Posada is far better today but the gap could close somewhat in 2008. At first base, a Pena encore of last season would vastly outperform the plummeting Jason Giambi and his platoon partner Wilson Betemit, a utilityman who hits like one. The Yankees have a huge advantage at shortstop and third base, both of which are manned by Hall of Famers still in their primes, Bartlett's defense and Longoria's promise notwithstanding. At second base, the Yankees' Robinson Cano has become a legitimately dangerous hitter, but the jury is still out on Iwamura. Iwamura battled freak injuries last season that limited him to fewer than 500 at bats. In a full season's play, the outstanding Iwamura should meet Cano's contributions, especially when defense is taken into account. In the outfield, Crawford is better than any Yankee outfielder, showing far more speed and defensive ability than Johnny Damon, more power and contact hitting ability than the present-day Bobby Abreu, and more all-around ability than Melky Cabrera. Only the declining and injury-prone Hideki Matsui has had marginally superior hitting numbers to Crawford's 2008, but Crawford blows past Matsui on the basepaths and sparks the team. In terms of pure hitting, Upton was better as a rookie than Crawford or any Yankee outfielder, and he will only get better. In the other outfield position, Cliff Floyd/Jonny Gomes/Eric Hinske all have the ability to put up nice numbers. Although the superiority of the Yankees at short, third, and catcher is profound, the Rays have pulled even or ahead of New York at all other offensive positions and in the pitching staff as a whole. The gap between the two teams is not large. The Replacement Level Yankees Weblog's PECOTA-based project gave the Rays a 27% likelihood of a playoff spot, defining the term "puncher's chance." Everyone who has paid attention to the Rays' rise knows the outrageous flood of young talent still to come over the next few years, but with the recent five-year run of out-of-nowhere teams competing for the World Series, no one should discount the Rays' chances this season. -- 「写下这些日记的人，在重新踏上阿根廷的土地时，就已经死去。我，已经不再是我。」 ---Che Guevara--- --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.137.37.198 ※ 编辑: majohn 来自: 140.137.37.198 (05/27 16:47) ※ majohn:转录至看板 Devil-Rays 06/01 06:12