BP的Nate Silver这篇新文章,在讲哪支球队有最好的季後赛轮值,作者用来评断的指标是 QERA,这个数值单纯的用投手的三振率,保送率和滚飞比三项指标来计算,因为这三项表现是 最不容易受到球场或联盟的不同而改变的 If you want to translate QERA into everyday language, you would do fairly well with the following: QERA Description 3.50 or less #1 starter 3.50-4.00 #2 starter 4.00-4.50 #3 starter 4.50-5.00 #4 starter 5.00+ #5 starter 最後排名的依据有两项,分别是"September"跟"October" September是常规赛的投手表现,1-4号投手占同样比重,五号投手的成绩则要打对半,因为他 们常被跳过轮值 October指标是指若球队能晋级季後赛,考量到季後赛top-rotation的重要性 评分将变成 ACE x 31% No.2 x 28% No.3 x 23% No.4 x 18% No.5 ----- 而咱们红袜的排名: 1. Red Sox 2.Padres 11.Mets 3.Indians 12.M's Beckett 2.98 4.NYY 13.Phillies Matzusaka 3.68 5.Angels 14.Dback Schilling 3.90 6.Tigers 15.Cardinals Wakefield 4.85 7.Brewers 16.Rockies Tavarez 4.54 8.Braves September 3.93 9.Dodgers October 3.72 10.Cubs 作者对红袜轮值的评论: I won’t have too many complaints if Josh Beckett wins the Cy Young Award this year. He has the best QERA of any likely playoff starter in either league, although he’s slightly behind Erik Bedard (2.48) and Johan Santana (2.81) among non-contenders. 如果Beckett今年拿下赛扬奖我也不会有太多抱怨,因为现在的他是所有可能进季後赛 投手中QERA最出色的,赢过他的人叫Bedard跟Santana. The Red Sox’ rotation isn’t entirely without risk, since you can envision scenarios where any of Beckett, Matsuzaka, and Schilling are tired or unavailable come October, but if healthy it’s a tremendous group, and Tim Wakefield is an outstanding insurance policy because of his ability to pitch on any number of days of rest (like any DIPS-based metric, QERA underrates knuckleballers because they have systematically low BABIPs). 当然红袜的轮值也不是没有隐忧,Beckett.Matsuzaka.Schilling可能在季赛会过度的操劳 不过当他们健康时绝对是非常坚强的组合.更不用说Wakefield这枚能休息短天数的活棋. (老蝴蝶的QERA因为较低的BABIP而被低估了) The Red Sox have some real incentives to lock up their playoff spot as soon as possible, because that means they can put Beckett, Dice-K, and Schilling on a 90- or 100-pitch leash in the last couple of weeks of September. 由於胜差的关系,红袜有很好的机会在季後赛维持这个阵容,因为他们可以在九月的最後几 周尽量降低前三号先发的工作量. Sep.3rd article by Nate Silver ,an author of Baseball Prospectus. -- "You really need to consider the message you're sending this boys by ending the lockout. It's the same message that we as a culture send to our professional athletes; and that is that they are above the law. If these boys cannot honor the simple rules of a basketball contract, how long do you think it will be before they're out there breaking the law?" -Coach Carter. --

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