Link：http://ppt.cc/PrAp 投手人数满多的，会拆成几个部分翻，首先是先发左投。 Left Handed Starting Pitcher The Rays have been among the best in the major leagues at developing southpaws over the past several years, with notable players including David Price, Matt Moore, and Enny Romero. Jake McGee and Alex Torres, two excellent relievers, were both starting pitchers in the minors leagues as well whose power stuff enabled them to successfully transition into the bullpen. 光芒是全联盟近几年最会培养左投手的球队，比较着名的球员像是David Price, Matt Moore, Enny Romero, Jack McGee和Alex Torres。後两位是优秀的後援投手， 在小联盟都是以先发投手的角色培养，出色的球质让他们在转型得很成功。 Normally, left handed starting pitchers throw less hard than their right handed counterparts. Most of the good prospects can hurl a good breaking ball (curve or slider), though a few show mastery of the change-up. Since they cause matchup problems with many left handed hitters, which account for the majority of major league batters, a good southpaw is a valuable weapon. Still, left handed pitching prospects have a lower success rate than right handed ones. 一般来说，同样类型的两位投手，左投的球威会比右投来得逊色一点。大多数在 水准之上的新秀都有不错的变化球（曲球或滑球），还有少数精通变速球。在左打者 占多数的大联盟，他们是很好的克星，这也是左投手最大的价值。不过左投的养成仍 就比右投手来得困难。 8. Enny Romero (22 Y.O. in Double-A, Triple-A, and MLB) 148.1 IP, 2.61 ERA, 3.98 FIP, 6.8 K/9, 4.6 BB/9, 39.2 GB% Once a helium prospect who captured the attention of prospect followers, Romero has become a post-hype sleeper prospect. A brilliant 2010 in Princeton and Hudson Valley followed by a promising 2011 in Bowling Green caused him to start receiving top 100 attention as his mid-90s fastball and developing breaking ball gave many hope in his future. But Romero struggled in 2012 in Port Charlotte with an ERA of 3.93, a walk rate of 5.4 per nine, and a diminishing strike out rate. However, Romero's 2013 season should give fans some hope that he can still reach his potential. Romero在关注新秀的球迷眼中，曾经是一位快速成长的新星。连续两年在Rk, A- , A 的出色表现，94~96 mph 的速球和不断成长的变化球，让球迷对他的未来抱持很 高的期待，也成为百大新秀的热门人选。但Romero去年在A+投得很挣扎，ERA 3.93， 每九局保送 5.4个人次，三振率也退步了。不过他今年再次让球迷知道他依旧有机会 将潜力转化成实力。 When looking at his peripherals, it is easy to see why there is plenty of skepticism about Romero. His walk rate once again dropped (6.8 per nine), and though his walk rate also fell, it wasn't exactly in control. However, the ERA and the rate of hits, both of which were excellent, tell a different story. He still has mid-90s velocity, though it can vary from 91-94 in some starts to 93-97 and touching 99 (he has been clocked at 100 several times) in others. His curveball, which stalled in 2012, showed much more promise, either ranging from an average pitch to an unhittable one (it was more along the lines of average in his MLB start). His change-up still lags behind, though it also showed more progress and promise this year. What holds Romero back is his command and pitchability, both of which are far below average. Though he has a good idea of how to attack right handed hitters, he struggles far too much against lefties considering his stuff. This lack of pitching knowledge is probably the main contributor to his mediocre peripherals, which were evident in his major league start (4 Ks and 0 BBs despite allowing only one hit and very little hard contact). 单纯看数据就可以知道为什麽Romero会引来这麽多质疑。保送率曾经高到每九局 保送 6.8个人次，虽然後来有下修，但是这不代表他在控球上有明显的进步。但是被 打击率和ERA 都表现得非常出色。虽然球速有时候只有91~94 mph， 但大多时候可以 维持在93~97 mph，必要时可以丢到99甚至100 mph。除此之外，曲球在去年从平均水 准成长到让打者频频挥空的武器。虽然今年有点进步，但变速球的成长比较慢。目前 会限制Romero成长的是他的控球和投球策略上的运用，目前两者都低於平均水准。相 较於与右打者的对决，他还不会善用自己的球质来宰制左打者。这可能会是造成他表 现一般的主因。 个人补充： 虽然Romero今年的数据有反弹，但是运气成分的可能性比较高。进阶数据并没有 很明显的进步。生涯对左右打没有明显区别，可以说他不怕右打，但更可能是没办法 压制左打，今年的小联盟数据（vs.L OPS .721/vs.R OPS.570）更显示这个问题是他 到了更高层级需要改善的重点。目前而言，Romero依旧是农场综合评价最好的左投手 ，不过还很生涩，真正要看到他发光发热应该还要两年熟成。 Enny Romero Debut： http://wapc.mlb.com/play/?content_id=30850701&topic_id=8879208 ------ 11. Blake Snell (20 Y.O. in Class-A) 99 IP, 4.27 ERA, 4.38 FIP, 9.6 K/9, 6.6 BB/9, 51.4 GB% An excellent statistical season in 2012 with Princeton set the expectations sky high for Blake Snell. In 2013, he failed to meet these expectations. Like many young pitchers, Snell struggled with command. His walk rate ballooned to a very concerning rate while his strikeout rate remained similar. His 13 wild pitches testify to his abysmal command. Additionally, he failed to work deep into games as he racked up high pitch counts. 去年在Rk交出优异数据後，大家对 Snell抱持很高的期待，不过今年他的表现有 些令人失望。和许多年轻投手相似， Snell有控球上的问题，当保送率炸掉的同时， 三振率保持在以往的水准。13次暴投证明他的控球的问题不小。除此之外，他过多的 投球数也没办法负担较长的局数。 Although the walk rate may cause many to shy away from Snell, there are still many reasons to have faith in him. So far, he has sown the ability to garner both strikeouts and groundballs. Furthermore, a young pitcher with good stuff having command issues is not unusual, though the severity of his problems is a very big issue. If Snell can get his command and walk rate under control, he profiles as a #3 starter who can pitch many innings. 虽然保送让 Snell的评价有所下滑，依旧有充分的理由对他抱持信心。到目前为 止，他展现了他在夺三振和制造滚地球的能力。再说，球质出色的年轻投手有控球问 题也并不罕见，仅管这在他身上看起来是个大问题。如果 Snell可以把控球和保送率 维持在一定的水准，他将会是球队未来可以吃下长局数的三号先发。 个人补充： 其实我对 Snell的评价比Romero要来得高。主要原因就在於他的滚地球率好上很 多，每年都保持在50%以上，今年会炸掉多少也是因为偏高的BABIP。除了控球，还需 要加强对右打者的压制力（vs.L OPS .806/vs.R OPS.610），不过他前两年对左右打 并没有差到这麽离谱，今年会突然走钟其实有些令人意外。不过他前几天才刚满21岁 ，目前大联盟在轮值上也没有迫切的需求，还有充裕的时间等他长大。 ------ 16. Felipe Rivero (21 Y.O. in Advanced Class-A) 127 IP, 3.40 ERA, 3.88 FIP, 6.4 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 42.3 GB%. After receiving little attention for his solid statistics and scouting reports, Rivero looked set to break out in 2013. Instead, he took a step backwards, displaying the first sign of control problems in his professional career and seeing his strikeout rate fall to a sub-standard level. With an arsenal featuring a low-90s fastball that can bump 94-95 mph and a change-up and curve that are both at times above average, Rivero shouldn't struggle to get strikeouts. While him command issues are not as severe as those of someone like Snell's, there still needs to be lots of improvement for him to reach his #3 starter potential. 去年稳定的数据和球探报告让Rivero今年很受瞩目，但他的表现却退步了。职业 生涯首次发生控球问题，三振率也低於平均。他的武器主要是可以冲到94-95 mph 的 速球，曲球和变速球也在平均水准之上。这样的条件照理来说夺三振应该不难。虽然 控球问题不像 Snell这麽严重，但如果想达到三号先发的潜力还有很长的路要走。 ------ 25. Mike Montgomery (23 Y.O. in Triple-A and Advanced Class-A [rehab]) 117.1 IP, 4.83 ERA, 4.35 FIP, 6.7 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, 45.1 GB%. The writers rated Montgomery quite a bit lower than the community, probably because we might have been more in tune to the severity of his recent struggles and injuries. For the most part, Montgomery was healthy this year. However, he wasn't able to revert to his pre-2011 form. As expected from reviewing his stat line, his stuff has not fully returned to its pre-2011 levels; his fastball now resides in the 89-92 range instead of the mid-90s, and his curveball is loopy. His change-up still grades as a 60/70 pitch, but his over reliance on it limits its effectiveness. While the Rays will probably hold out a little longer on the hope he can start, he profiles best as a middle reliever (with a set-up man ceiling). 也许是因为最近几年的挣扎和伤势，在一些专栏作家眼中，Montgomery的排名比 球迷评选来得低。Montgomery今年大部分的时间都很健康。但他依旧没有回到2011年 前那样惊人的状态。如同我们对他过去数据的观察，他的球质已经没有当年顶级新秀 的水准。速球大部分落在89~92 mph，曲球有不错的变化幅度。变速球依旧是60/70分 的水准，但过度依赖这个球种反而限制了他的威力。虽然光芒会愿意多花一点时间等 他长大，但他的上限可能只是短中继（有机会养成布局投手。） 个人补充： 这篇评论也太悲观XD。离开可怕的PCL还是有差，但光芒AAA投打相对均衡的环境 绝对是重建Montgomery信心不可或缺的要素。 事实上，Monthomery是今年光芒派去 AFL表现最好的新秀。整个休赛期，教练团 和球探对他的成长也是好评不断。其中被特别点出来的就是他在球种搭配上的进步。 另外特别封印评价不错的滑球（有些球探觉得是卡特），主要目的就是为了磨他的曲 球， AFL结束後，农场总管Mitch Lukevics针对这点给了高度的评价。另外也特别说 明，把他放在牛棚绝对不是要他转型後援，只是单纯想保护他的手臂。 最近一篇球探报告针对他在 AFL投的三种球种给出评语。平均水准的速球，有不 错的移动效果。足以欺骗打者的曲球。水准之上的变速球则是他最纯熟的球种。在这 样互相搭配的结果，他在众星云集的AFL交出K/9 9.0的成绩，相较於季中伤癒归队後 没有一个月K/9超过7.0，已经是很大的提升。也许有人会质疑这是小样本，但事实上 Montgomery从伤兵名单回来後，每个月的进阶数据都在进步* ，相比去年迟迟无法站 稳AAA，今年的表现已是有目共睹。 *逐月进阶数据： 六月 K/9 5.52，BB/9 4.30，SIERA 4.98，GB% 46.1% 七月 K/9 6.00，BB/9 4.09，SIERA 4.57，GB% 48.0% 八月 K/9 6.89，BB/9 3.58，SIERA 4.28，GB% 49.0% SIERA：综合运气、防守及球场因素来预估一个投手应有的ERA。 的确，Montgomery已经不是当年众所期待的Next Ace in League（如果是，皇家 不但不会交易他，搞不好也不会牺牲Myers来换Shields。），但目前的上限绝对不是 左手牛，起码还有後段轮值的水准，只是他还有很多功课要做，不够稳定的投球机制 已经不是第一次被拿出来检讨，控球很差，对右打者的压制力都是隐忧。但我相信光 芒的修复工程是走在对的路上。如果愿意多点耐心，没意外的话，最晚後年有机会看 到他以光芒球员的姿态登上大联盟投手丘。 ------ Grayson Garvin (23 Y.O. in Advanced Class-A and Rookie League [rehab]) 28.1 IP, 1.59 ERA, 2.48 FIP, 7.6 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 40.7 GB%. A supplemental first round pick out of Vanderbilt in the 2011 draft, Grayson Garvin didn't pitch until 2012. As a member of the Stone Crabs, the polished left handed pitcher performed much worse than expected, posting a 5.05 ERA before having Tommy John surgery in the summer. In college, Garvin worked with a three pitch mix; he threw a 90-94 mph fastball, a solid average change-up, and a below average slider. 2011年来自Vanderbilt的补偿选秀签，Grayson Garvin直到2012年才开始他的职 业赛季。这位成熟的左投在A+的表现比预期来得差很多，在夏天接受Tommy John之前 ERA 5.05。大学时期，Garvin结合三种球种来解决打者，90-94 mph 的速球，稳定的 变速球和低於平均的滑球。 Garvin did not start pitching again this year until July, and after several appearances with the GCL Rays, he was sent once again to Port Charlotte, where he finished the season. It was a very solid year statistically for him, and his velocity has been in its typical range in the Arizona Fall League. The surgery put him behind schedule, but Garvin has the chance to progress quickly and reach the majors as a solid #4 starter. 今年Garvin直到七月才开始投球，在 GCL出赛几场比赛後，直接被送到A+，并在 这里完成赛季。今年的数据很棒，在 AFL球速也维持得很好。虽然手术拖延了他的养 成，但Garvin有机会快速晋升，并成为不错的四号先发登上大联盟。 个人补充： Garvin当年的选秀评价是：中段轮值，可以快速升级。目前看起来，要不是因为 伤势，应该还算符合期待。虽然说去年爆胎，但其实进阶数据很棒。今年伤癒归队後 一直保持不错的三振率和保送率，总和A+/AFL：K/9 7.7，BB/9 2.5。 他的问题在於 变化球不够稳定，状况好时变速球可以控在好球带下缘吃死打者，滑球（有人觉得比 较像Slurve）的轨迹几乎可以横跨整个好球带，状况不好也可以在一局里连环爆。像 Garvin这种没有Power stuff 的投手，变化球的稳定性几乎决定他未来的成长，但这 类型的投手在养成上也会稍微慢一点。四号先发对他来说肯定是保守估计，那颗滑球 的成熟度绝对是他能不能冲到三号甚至是二号的关键球路。 Grayson Garvin's Breaking Ball： http://ppt.cc/bfr~ ------ Ryan Carpenter (22 Y.O. in Advanced Class-A) 117.2 IP, 4.67 ERA, 4.22 FIP, 7.4 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 32.8 GB%. When the Rays drafted him out of Gonzaga University in the 7th round of the 2011 MLB draft, Ryan Carpenter profiled as the rare college starter with substantial upside but a large gap between that and present ability. The Rays signed him to an over-slot deal and hoped he would recover the excellent stuff he previously flashed. So far in pro ball, Carpenter hasn't lived up to his promise. His stuff is still more that of a back end starter, and he has had some home run issues which can be attributed to his very high fly ball percentage. 当光芒在2011年第七轮选中来自Gonzaga University的Ryan Carpenter时，他被 认为是大学投手中少数还有潜力的新秀。光芒以高於建议签约金的价格签下他後，也 说明球团相当看好他能回复到过往优异的球质。到目前为止， Carpenter还没有回应 这个期待。球质依旧不如大多数先发投手，过高的飞球率也有容易挨轰的问题。 个人补充： Carpenter 已经没有当年动辄97 mph的速球，目前的球速大约都落在90 mph出头 ，但倚靠精准的控球（可能是目前光芒农场最好）和不错的变化球（大曲球和滑球） 轨迹，让他的K/BB一直维持得不错。极端的飞球投手，平均每9局就要挨1轰，如果是 在对打者有利的农场可能已经养不下去了。虽然进阶数据每年都在退步，不过到目前 为止还在可接受范围，有机会养成可以吃下长局数的工作马。不过今年季末肩膀受伤 ，可能会是养成上的变数。 ------ Jordan Harrison (22 Y.O. in Short Season Class-A, Class-A, and Advanced Class-A) 89.1 IP, 2.92 ERA, 3.54 FIP, 8.4 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 48.0 GB%. Despite being shifted across three levels, Jordan Harrison managed to put together a very good season. In many respects, his season was very similar to his 2012 season: a good strikeout rate, a better than average walk rate, and a low ERA. According to a report from rayscoloredglasses.com, Harrison at the draft time featured a 90 mph fastball, a solid curveball, and a poor change-up. After two very good seasons, it will be interesting to see if the Rays start utilizing Harrison more as a legitimate prospect. 虽然横跨三个层级， Jordan Harrison还是交出了一个非常出色的赛季。在许多 方面，他今年的成绩和2012年非常相近，不错的三振率，平均之上的保送率，ERA 也 保持得很好。Harriston 在选秀时最主要的武器是90 mph的速球，稳定的曲球和很烂 的变速球。经过两个非常棒的赛季之後，看光芒如何安排他的未来是件有趣的事情。 个人补充： 不知是幸还是不幸，如果不是因为农场鸡瘟一样的伤病潮，可能根本没有人会注 意到Harrison这号人物。大概是因为投球策略或球路变化的关系，他面对左打者会摇 身一变成滚地球投手，但右打者也很难在他身上讨到便宜。大学时期控球不太好，但 这两年下来却没对他造成明显的困扰，反而长出令人意外的三振能力。同时他先发时 的表现比後援好一些，我会将他视为明年在A+的先发五人之一，明年他就会让光芒知 到是不是真的掏到珍珠了。 ------ Chris Kirsch (21 Y.O. in Short Season Class-A and Advanced Class-A) 92.2 IP, 3.01 ERA, 3.86 FIP, 4.8 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 54.3 GB%. In his second season in the organization, Chris Kirsch, a 2012 14th round pick, improved immensely from his 8.10 ERA, posting a 3.01 ERA this year. While the ERA is shiny, there are a few red flags. A sub-five strikeout per nine rate is very poor, and while he did not walk a ton of batters, he was not a control artist either. He throws a fastball that can get up to 92 mph and he also throws a curveball, slider, and changeup. Chris Kirsch这位2012年第14轮选中的球员是职业二年级生，他今年的成长非常 显着，ERA从8.10进步到3.01。 但仅管如此还是有些比较明显的问题。每九局的三振 数不到 5是不太理想的数字，虽然保送不算太多，但控球也称不上出色。速球可以来 到92 mph，另外还有曲球、滑球和变速球。 个人补充： Kirsch大学时代其实有不错的三振能力，最後一年，70局可以K掉101位打者，最 棒的球种是曲球，有不错的下沉轨迹，常常让打者打出软弱的滚地球。他有多样的武 器，但都不算突出，控球也还不足以让这些球路发挥最大的威力，现阶段还很容易被 击中。他今年的进步是可预期的，因为去年的BABIP 是夸张的.412，运气很糟，事实 上进阶数据还不错。他是个能负担长局数的先发投手，对左右打也没有明显的差异。 不过如果球种没有突破性的成长，成为可以制造滚地球出局的长中继可能性较高。 ------ Ben Griset (21 Y.O. in Short Season Class-A) 66 IP, 3.41 ERA, 2.81 FIP, 7.5 K/9, 1.4 BB/9, 49.8 GB%. The Rays 13th round pick in the 2013 draft, Ben Griset joined Chris Kirsch and Aaron Griffin to give the Hudson Valley Reneagdes three strike throwing pitchers at the top of the rotation. According to John Sickels, Griset is more of an organization player than a true prospect. His fastball hovers in the upper 80s, and he will also throw a curveball and a change-up. Ben Griset是今年第13轮选中的新秀，他、Chris Kirsch和Aaron Griffin 是今 年光芒A-的先发三本柱。John Sickels认为Griset的天分比较像用来填充农场空缺的 小联盟投手。速球在89~90 mph 附近，另外也会丢曲球和变速球。 个人补充： Griset这个新秀很有趣，他大学时期联赛层级并不高，不过从那时候开始他就是 个「垒包精算师」，要从他手中打出安打并不难，但要大量得分很不容易。今年比较 令人意外的是漂亮的保送率，因为他当年选秀评价不高的主因之一就是控球太差。我 认同Sickels 的看法，他登上大联盟的机率并不高（不只没办法压制左打者，根本就 是被打爆，看数据他更像Roogy） ，但农场还是需要这类型的投手来维持轮值深度。 --

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