Link：http://ppt.cc/jgCh Second Base There was only one second base prospect in the pre-season top 30, and I'm inclined to believe that will be the case for 2014 too. In a way, it's a position for runts. Prospects rarely start out at the position. Maybe they don't have the arm strength for the left side of the infield or the bat to profile at a corner position. There are mold breakers that make it as a pure second baseman, but the odds are against those players. 只有一位二垒新秀进入季前Top 30，我有预感明年依旧是如此。某种程度上，这 个守位的新秀都比较矮小。除非没有足够的臂力防守内野左侧，或没有足够的打击能 力担任边角野手，大部分新秀很少从这个守位出发。他们之所以能成为纯二垒手，是 因为他们都有特别的才能，但同时也有部分是有缺陷的。 Power and arm strength aren't tools usually present at the position. Since it's an up the middle position, teams do value defense, but they're more willing to live with a bat-first player here than at shortstop. 长打和臂力不是他们所必备的能力。因为是中线防守者，球团会关注他们的守备 能力，但对於打击的期待会比游击手来得高。 ------ 22. Ryan Brett (21 Y.O. at Class A-Advanced and Double-A) 311 PA, .305/.360/.460, 7.4 BB%, 13.2 K%, 29 XBH, 26 SB (78.8%) After finishing the balance of his PED suspension to start the season, Brett played more like the hitter people saw in 2011. His walk rate dipped a little more, but he cut back down on his strikeouts and found some of his missing power. He was effective stealing bases as usual, and impressive performance with Charlotte earned him a late season trip to Montgomery. His walk and strikeout rates were similar, as was his ISO. A huge difference was his BABIP; that dropped 130 points after the promotion, and his average fell with it. 结束禁赛後Brett开始了新赛季。今年他重现了'11年出色的打击表现。保送率略 为下滑，但三振率也降低了，并展现遗失的长打火力。像过去一样，Brett 是个有效 率的盗垒者。在A+出色的表现让他赢得在季末晋升AA的机会。升级後保送率和三振率 都维持得差不多，但 BABIP掉了.130，打击率也下降了。 Brett finished a stint in the Arizona Fall League last week but didn't really perform well. He walked more than he struck out, but he finished with an OPS of just .582. AFL stats aren't indicative of anything in the future, but reports from the season pin him as a scrappy player with no tremendous tools (BA, $). Players like that can work, and his plate approach and base running will help him. Brett在AFL的表现不太理想。保送比三振多，不过 OPS只有.582。AFL的数据不代 表未来的发展，但季末的球探报告说他只是一位斗志旺盛的球员，却没有太多工具。这 样的球员有机会在大联盟占得一席之地，他的打击型态和速度会为他带来许多帮助。 个人补充： Brett属於High BABIP的打者，不过今年在A+高达的.377的BABIP真的不太正常，所 以我对他今年的打击表现持保留态度。值得注意的是，去年他也有季末下滑的问题，原 本认为是他吸食Meth的副作用，但现在看起来也有可能是体力还不足以负荷漫长的完整 赛季。速度很棒，有单季 40+盗垒的潜力，DRaysBay甚至认为他有机会成为光芒未来的 第一棒，防守上不论是范围或是控制失误都做得很棒，他现在要做的就是保持稳定的成 绩，明年球季结束40人名单一定有他的位置。 ------ Robby Price (25 Y.O. at Double-A) 491 PA, .226/.318/.286, 9.8 BB%, 8.8 K% Price had been a solid performer throughout his entire minor league career, but his lack of tools finally caught up with him this year with Montgomery. He continued to walk more than he struck out, as he has his entire career, but with no power or speed, he loses all offensive value with a plummeting average. 15 extra base hits was a career low despite only being one home run shy of a career high. His approach and ability to play third base may keep him around a little longer. Price 的小联盟生涯都表现得很稳定，但缺乏足够能力的他终於在AA遇到了困难 ，一如过去的表现，他的保送依旧比三振来得多，但没有足够的长打能力和速度，一 但失去稳定的打击率，他在进攻端就完全失去价值了。打击型态和可以镇守三垒也许 能让他的生涯更长一点。 个人补充： Price 是满容易被忽略的新秀，一来是因为年纪，二来是他的上限介於板凳球员 和小联盟球员之间，定位上比较尴尬。在AAA有个打击更好，K%更低的Figuera都没受 到青睐，即使Price防守更为出色，但前景其实不太乐观。好消息是，今年他的BABIP 低於生涯平均不少，明年还是有机会反弹，另外今年除了二垒、三垒，也尝试防守左 外野，就功能性来说，他还是有机会升上大联盟。 ------ Hector Guevara (21 Y.O. at Class A-Advanced and Double-A) 432 PA, .252/.296/.364, 4.6 BB%, 9.0 K%, 12 SB (80%) Repeating the Florida State League with Charlotte, Guevara showed a bit of pop for a middle infielder with six home runs in his first 60 games. It earned him a brief promotion to Montgomery where he walked at a higher rate than he ever has, but he made even less contact and saw the power disappear. He was sent back to Charlotte to finish the season, but he finished his time there with an on-base percentage under .300. 今年再次从A+出发，Guevara在60场比赛挥出6发全垒打，对二垒手而言，这是不 错的长打成绩。升上AA後他的保送率来到生涯新高，但在击球和长打上却明显下滑。 季末他又回到A+，但最後他在A+的上垒率还是低於.300。 Guevara hit for some power in the VSL in 2009, but until this year with the Stone Crabs, it had been nowhere to be seen in the U.S. He could use some of it because despite low strikeout rates throughout his entire career, he hasn't even been a .250 hitter in his career and hardly walks. He doesn't add much in the base running department, and it seems like he'll have to rely on defensive flexibility to continue his professional career. 2009年Guevara在VSL展现过一些长打火力，但到今年为止，他来到美国还没有什 麽表现。生涯打击率从未高於.250，也不太选保送，他还能留在农场体系主要还是因 为低三振率。盗垒能力并不出色，看起来他必须透过增加守位多样性才能延长他的职 业生涯。 ------ Tommy Coyle (22 Y.O. at Class-A) 552 PA, .278/.399/.405, 16.5 BB%, 14.1 K%, 40 SB (83.3%) Tommy Coyle is not as highly regarded as a prospect as his brother Sean with the Red Sox, but it's hard to not notice his production in 2013. He didn't hit for power, but he pretty much did everything else, including play good defense at second base. His decent hit tool, patient approach and speed made him a great option for the top of the Bowling Green lineup. Tommy Coyle不像他在红袜的弟弟 Sean Coyle的评价这麽高，但他今年的表现很 难令人忽视。除了长打能力，他几乎把每件事都做到了，包括出色的二垒防守。合格 的打击能力、耐心的打击型态和速度，让他成为球队最适合的第一棒人选。 The usual caveats for older players performing in leagues apply to Coyle here. A player from an elite college conference should feel comfortable in the Midwest League, and he's going to have to prove himself at higher levels. Some defensive flexibility would help him, but he can only play second base. 需要注意的是，Coyle 在所属联盟属於大龄新秀。这位来自顶尖大学联赛的球员 在这个联盟表现的很棒，但更重要的是他必须在更高层级证明自己。增加守位多元性 可能对他的发展有帮助，但他只能守二垒。 个人补充： Tommy的弟弟，Sean Coyle是红袜在'10年砸了1.3M签下的高中生大物（当年红袜 是28顺位，却砸了10.66M在选秀会上…），仅管身材矮小，长打爆发力非常惊人，有 单季25+全垒打的潜力。除了身材和守位，他们兄弟俩完全是不同类型的打者，Tommy 是打跑守三拍子球员，也许没办法把球不断送出场外，但有稳定的中长程火力。比较 麻烦的问题是他左杀倾向（生涯OPS R/L .845/.607）， 今年这个现象有好一点，如 果能克服这个关卡，我想他未来会是先发打线的人选。 ------ Ariel Soriano (22 Y.O. at Short-Season Class A) 293 PA, .267/.310/.414, 4.1 BB%, 17.1 K%, 23 XBH, 18 SB (75%) In his third year in the U.S., Soriano had a career year since he arrived here from the Dominican Republic. He continued to be an effective base runner, but he also nearly doubled his career home run total with six, tied for the Hudson Valley lead with Oscar Hernandez. Overall, the slash line might not seem especially good, he slugged over 70 points higher than the league average in the offense-suppressed New York-Penn League. 第三年来到美国， Soriano打出了生涯代表作。依旧是有效率的盗垒者，但全垒 打支数接近生涯的两倍，追平 Oscar Hernandez今年在A-的全垒打数。整体来说，这 样的打击三围并不是十分出色，不过他的纯长打率比联盟平均（NYPL，打者坟场）高 出了.070。 His plate approach could clearly be a concern moving forward though. His career high walk rate was 7.5% way back in the Dominican Summer League in 2010, and more experienced pitchers could take advantage of his aggressiveness. He'll also be 23 years old entering full-season ball next year. 打击成绩值得我们在未来的日子给他一些关注，不过保送率从生涯最高的7.5%一 路下滑，遇到有经验的投手肯定会吃亏。明年满23岁的他将会迎接第一个完整赛季。 ------ Coty Blanchard (21 Y. O. at Rookie/Princeton) 196 PA, .213/.325/.287, 13.3 BB%, 16.3 K% Blanchard was a two sport athlete in college, so the Rays were hoping to get more upside from the typical 15th round pick. Of course, that came with more rawness too. His plate approach was probably a bit better than expected, and although his .611 OPS isn't impressive at all, it was actually only 10 points worse than his platform season at Jacksonville State. Maybe now focusing on baseball can get him on track. Blanchard 大学是双栖运动员，光芒希望能在第15轮尽可能获得更多的天分。当 然，他也不够成熟。打击表现比预期中好多了，虽然.611的 OPS不是很亮眼，但这只 比他在过去在大学兼职打棒球的时候低了.010，也许更专注在棒球上可以让他回到轨 道上。 A lot has to come together for him though. He's not going to hit for much power, so he needs to do a better job making hard contact to get singles and doubles. Despite solid athleticism, he doesn't really steal bases, but it does allow him to play the middle infield. Tools-wise, he could probably play shortstop, but in college as well as the Appy League, he was clumsy. He committed 10 errors in 50 games with the Princeton Rays. 有许多问题是他需要解决的，因为没有足够的长打能力，所以必须在击球上做得 更确实。虽然运动能力很棒，但没有反应在盗垒次数上，不过站中线内野没有太大问 题，说不定还可以站游击。但不管是在大学还是在小联盟，他的防守表现都显得有些 笨拙。今年50场比赛发生10次失误。 ------ Kean Wong (18 Y.O. at Rookie/Gulf Coast League) 194 PA, .328/.377/.390, 5.7 BB%, 11.3 K%, 7 SB (87.5%) Wong's .767 OPS was easily one of the Rays' top performing 2013 picks. His .767 OPS was over 100 points better than the league average. He'll have to become more patient at the plate, but that's not unusual for an 18 year old hitter. While his walk rate was a bit low, he's not a hacker and frequently put the ball in play. One weakness he has at the plate is the lack of power. He's already filled out at 5'11 and 190 pounds and probably won't ever end up as more of a gap hitter. Wong .767的OPS是光芒今年选秀球员中表现最好的，比联盟平均还高了.100。他 在打击区还需要多点耐心，不过这对一个18岁的孩子来说并不容易。虽然保送率有点 低，但可以频繁的把球打进场内。最大的缺点是没有长打能力。5'11" 190lbs的身材 还有长肉空间，有机会养成具备中长程火力的打者。 He was billed as an advanced hitter in pre-draft scouting reports, and he lived up to that. He hit the ground running as a professional, and the Rays could send him straight to Bowling Green which they usually don't do with high school players. Wong could also play third base in the future, but he didn't at all in his pro debut. 选前的球探报告就指出他已经是个平均水准的打者，他也在职业赛场证明了自己 的实力。将球打进场内後从打者转换成跑垒的能力已经有职业水准，虽然并不常见， 但光芒可以考虑把他直接送到A（最近一位是Josh Sale），Wong未来可以防守三垒， 不过今年没有尝试纪录。 个人补充： Kean的哥哥，Kolten是目前所有球队农场里评价最高的二垒手。而许多球探报告 都指出，Kolten在Kean这个年纪的表现并不如今年参选的Kean。这也是为什麽许多选 秀专家认为光芒在这个顺位偷到一位不错的新秀。目前样本数还没多到可以肯定Kean 跟他哥一样是属於High-BABIP的打者，就算是，他今年BABIP .374也不在合理范围内 （Kolten小联盟生涯.331），但如果考虑到他是在比较偏投手的 GCL，明年的成绩可 能有机会保持甚至更好。直接丢A是冒险了点，明年能站A二垒的新秀也不在少数，我 想先经过延长春训的考验，再做下一步考量会是比较安全的作法。 --

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