作者csy1911 (招财猫)
看板Rays
标题2013 Prospects in Review: First Base
时间Wed Nov 20 21:35:15 2013
Link:
http://ppt.cc/AVOB
First Base
My last two reviews have also been corner positions, so I've gotten used to
writing about players that are supposed to hit for power. The speed, defense
and arm tools are almost irrelevant here, but when a player does have the
defensive ability of James Loney, of course it's a plus. Not everyone fits
the big hit and power tools mold, but with nowhere else to go on the
defensive spectrum for many of these players, their bat better carry them.
接下来我要介绍的是边角内野手,这些球员都被期待拥有长打火力,但如果他们
有 James Loney等级的防守能力,那当然也会被视为水准之上的新秀。并不是每个人
都有关键一击和长打能力,但如果有限的防守能力限制了移防的可能性,那就只能期
待他们的打击带他们到最高殿堂了。
Only one top 30 prospect entering the season played a plurality of games at
first base, and he probably is capable of playing elsewhere on the diamond. I
can't say for sure if anyone else is going to jump up to that list this
off-season, but one may be close.
只有一位Top 30新秀出现在这个守位,而且他其实可以移防到别的位置。我不确
定有没有新秀的行情会在今年挤进Top 30,但有一位相当有机会。
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28. Patrick Leonard (20 Y.O. at Class A)
493 PA, .225/.305/.345, 8.5 BB%, 23.9 K%, 9 HR
Acquired in the James Shields trade as kind of the unknown guy in the four
player haul, Leonard struggled for much of his first season in the Rays
organization. He's a third baseman, but he played almost entirely first base
this year with Tyler Goeddel holding down the hot corner. He hit 14 homers in
62 Appy League games last year, but he was down to nine in 123 this year.
在James Shields交易案获得的包裹中,Leonard是相对默默无名的收获,而他在
光芒的第一个赛季也相当挣扎。其实他是三垒手,但因为A有Tyler Goeddel镇守三垒
的关系,本季守一垒的机会比较多。去年在Rk的62场比赛敲出14发全垒打,但本季在
A只有9轰。
Leonard clearly struggled making the transition to full-season ball, but he
did improve in the second half. His first half slash line of .207/.291/.290
improved to .242/.315/.399. Although his walk rate fell from 9% to 8.1% and
his strikeout rate rose from 22.9% to 25%, the Rays were probably encouraged
by the uptick in power. He's playing in Australia this winter, and the extra
reps down there could help him prepare to play for Charlotte as a 21 year old
next year.
Leonard 在面对完整球季的考验上陷入挣扎,但在下半季慢慢有调整回来。上半
季的打击三围是.207/.291/.290,下半季进步到.243/.315/.399。虽然保送率从9.0%
退步到8.1%,三振率也从22.9%进步到25.0%,但光芒依旧为他在
长打上的进步感到振
奋。今年冬天他会去澳洲打冬季联赛,额外的出赛机会可以让他为明年在A+的赛季做
好更充足的准备。
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Cameron Seitzer (23 Y.O. at Double-A)
579 PA, .268/.380/.360, 14.0 BB%, 16.9 K%
Despite winning the Southern League home run derby, Seitzer does not have the
power to profile at first base. He did hit 16 home runs as a sophomore at
Oklahoma, but that pop disappeared when the new BBCOR standards in college
came into play. He then hit 11 home runs with Princeton in his first 64
professional games, but he only has 10 in the two seasons since.
虽然赢得所属联盟的全垒打大赛冠军, Seitzer还是没有展现太多一垒手需要的
长打火力。大二曾敲出16发全垒打,但NCAA采用新版BBCOR(Bat-Ball Coefficient
of Restitution,球棒反弹系数)标准後,长打能力就消失了*。 他在Rk的前64场职
业比赛,64场送出11轰,但接下来两年只有10轰。
注:几个月前NCAA针对新制 BBCOR造成球员打击表现下滑的问题进行讨论,主要是因
为在打击率和长打率都下滑的情况下,会影响得分方式,所以NCAA官方已经决定
後年改用缝线较平的球,希望能解决这项问题。
He does have a patient approach that allows him to get on base and complement
his decent feel for gap to gap contact. He did hold his own with Montgomery
despite skipping over Charlotte completely. He has the arm to play a position
besides first base but not the athleticism.
打击相当有耐心,有不错的
上垒能力,加上
把球打到外野空隙的技巧不错,让他
看起来没有因为跳级而挣扎。他的
臂力符合其他守位的标准,但
运动能力还不够。
个人补充:
光芒在选秀会选择一垒手的次数本来就不高(通常是游击手或投手连发XD),加
上这几年光芒选秀的一垒手在AA就被宣布被养死的还不少(近期的有 Mike Sheridan
('08 5rd)和Philip Wunderlich('10 12rd)),因此 Seitzer算是相当少数的成
功案例,虽然没有足够的长打火力,但火力输出还算稳定,如果AA整体 OPS偏低和跳
级,Seitzer明年应该会有更好的打击表现。
比较需要注意的是
防守,今年在AA一共发生了11次失误,如果想循 James Loney
路线升上大联盟,这是他目前应该努力的方向。
Seitzer有个有名老爸,就是前皇家打击教练,目前蓝鸟打击教练Kevin Seitzer
。过去Kevin就是高打击率、高上垒率、低长打率的野手(生涯 .295/.375/.405),
多少也影响了 Cameron的打击型态。有趣的是,他们连生涯发展都很相似,同样在第
11轮被选中,同样只花三年就升上AA(Rk->A->A+,连年纪都一样 XD),只是 Kevin
是三垒手,对长打能力的要求较低,这也是 Cameron在发展上最需要克服的问题。今
年在全垒打大赛夺冠是不是说明其实他有足够的原始力量,只要调整打击型态就能破
茧而出呢?就让我们明年拭目以待吧!
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Vince Belnome (25 Y.O. at Triple-A)
533 PA, .300/.408/.446, 15.8 BB%, 20.5 K%, 46 XBH
The Rays acquired Belnome over the off-season from San Diego for minor league
pitcher Chris Rearick, and they got a player that should reach the majors at
some point in his career. After battling injuries his last two seasons in the
Padres system, he stayed healthy and posted a slash line, and he was able to
do it outside of the hitter's paradises that were his A-Advanced, Double-A
and Triple-A leagues with San Diego. His power comes in the form of mostly
doubles, but he makes good contact, works the count and gets on base.
光芒去年休赛期用小联盟左手後援投手Chris Rearick跟教士队换来Belnome,他
们认为他一定能在生涯的某个时刻在大联盟找到自己的位子。过去两年都在伤病中挣
扎的Belnome今年保持不错的
健康状态,同时在离开教士农场(A+, AA, AAA都是打者
天堂)後交出不错的打击三围。长打能力大多表现在
二垒安打上,但他有很不错的
击
球能力、
选球和
上垒能力。
Belnome offers a little more flexibility in the field than Anderson which
could be a huge separator between the two. It's difficult if not impossible
to find a positive report about his play at second or third base, but if he
can fake his way at those spots, maybe he could be a bat-first man off the
bench. He typically has some big platoon splits (as a lefty) and doesn't have
the look of the typical major leaguer at 5'11 and about 200 pounds, but if he
keeps hitting, maybe he'll get a shot.
Belnome 在场上的
机动性很小,以二垒或三垒手来说,这样的打击成绩几乎是无
可挑剔的,但如果他无法胜任这个守位,他最多就是板凳上的代打者。典型的
左杀,
5'11" 200磅 的
身材也让人很难将他和大联盟选手联想在一起,但如果能维持这样的
打击成绩,他还是有机会在大联盟找到自己的位子。
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Alejandro Segovia (23 Y.O. at Class A-Advanced)
436 PA, .281/.376/.457, 10.1 BB%, 15.1 K%, 14 HR, 37 XBH
An established member of the FreeZo All-Star team, Segovia had another very
good season at the plate, although he hit one fewer home run than last year
despite accumulating over 150 more plate appearances. He maintained his
strong plate approach with a walk rate over 10% and putting the ball in play
regularly. He suffered a concussion after being hit by a pitch during the
season, but he hit just fine after coming off the DL for the last two months.
Segovia再次交出不错的成绩单,虽然打席比去年多了150个,但全垒打比去年来
得少。他保持稳定的
保送率,也可以
把球送进场内。季中因为触身球脑震荡,但从伤
兵名单回来的两个月交出很不错的表现。
While he continued to hit at a higher level, his value was still hurt by move
from catcher to first base. The bar for his bat is now set much higher, but
maybe he can regain some of his lost power getting out of the FSL next
season. If I'm interpreting the rules correctly, he could be ticketed for
minor league free agency this week.
仅管他在更高层级也有不错的打击表现,但他的价值还是因为从捕手移防一垒而
下滑,对打击要求也更高,但也许离开A+後可以重新展现他的长打火力。
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Jeff Malm (22 Y.O. at Class A-Advanced)
467 PA, .239/.308/.391, 7.7 BB%, 20.6 K%, 14 HR, 36 XBH
Malm has been on the fringe of the organization's top 30 prospect list for a
few seasons now, but his bat hasn't taken the necessary step forward to
really break out. Coming out of high school, he was expected to be a high
average player that can use all fields with questionable power, but the
opposite has been true as a professional.
几年前Malm曾经是Top 30边缘的新秀,但他的打击并没有如预期的爆发。高中时
期,球探对他的长打能力的意见不一,但都认为他会是一位高打击率,可以把球送到
每个角落的打者。但到了职业赛场却完全相反。
14 home runs is a career high, but he's gotten pull happy and is a career
.248 hitter. He has struck out in over 20% of his plate appearances for the
last four years, and he doesn't seem to be the same player that tied the high
school record for career hits as an amateur. He has the arm to play left
field but not the athleticism.
14发全垒打是生涯新高,但太爱
拉打,生涯
打击率也只有.248,过去四年三振率
都超过 20%。和选秀前打出平高中安打纪录的那个新秀不是同个人,他有
臂力防守左
外野,但
运动能力不够。
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John Alexander (20 Y.O. at Short-Season Class A)
248 PA, .215/.246/.292, 3.6 BB%, 19.4 K%
Drafted in the eighth round in the big 2011 draft, Alexander still hasn't
been able to translate his athleticism to on-field production. He had a .870
OPS getting his feet wet in the GCL in 12 games his first year, but he's
gotten worse since. The strikeout rate isn't overwhelmingly poor, but the
walk rate is. He seems to be swinging at a lot of pitches and not making good
contact while doing it. With results like this, it's hard to imagine him
being ready for a full-season league next year. He hasn't played a game
anywhere besides first base in his career.
2011年第8轮选秀,Alexander仍然没有把他的运动能力转换到赛场上。第一年在
GCL的12场比赛交出OPS.870的成绩,但接下来就每况愈下。三振率不算太糟,但
保送
率就不理想了。出棒积极但是
与球的接触却不理想。这样的表现很难想像他明年会准
备好迎接完整赛季的考验。生涯没有守过其他守位。
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Travis Flores (20 Y.O. at Rookie/Princeton)
194 PA, .179/.284/.333, 10.8 BB%, 27.4 K%, 7 HR
After being drafted by the Rays in the 11th round of the 2010 draft, Flores
missed 2011 and 2012 with injuries. Missing two seasons certainly doesn't
help his timing at the plate, especially for players with pitch recognition
issues like Flores. He has impressive raw power and was tied for second on
Princeton in home runs, but his strikeout rate shows he has a lot of work to
do. Just staying on the field is probably a positive for him at this point.
He's limited to first base defensively, so he'll need to start making better
contact.
2010年第11轮被光芒选中後,Flores在'11年和'12年都因伤没有上场。错过两个
赛季明显对养成一点帮助也没有,特别是像Flores这种有球路判别问题的新秀。他有
令人印象深刻的
长打火力, 7发全垒打在所属联盟并列第二,但过高的
三振率显示他
还有很多功课要做。就目前来说,能上场就是好消息。他的守位被限制在一垒,所以
他需要在击球上做得更好。
个人补充:
再不回来都快忘记他了……XD。
Travis Flores 是第四届全国高中生全垒打大赛的冠军得主(各州高中全垒打大
赛冠军齐聚的盛会,Flores前一届的全国冠军是BAL的Chris Walker,後一届是CHC的
Dan Vogelbach。农场的Hunter Lockwood(TX Rep.)和Flores(AZ Rep.)曾同场(Trop.
Field)较劲),长打火力绝对是货真价实的,但当时球探报告就指出这是他唯一的能
力。过长的
挥棒轨迹、
偏高的挥空率、
球路辨识都需要进行修正。
今年Flores的 BABIP是偏低的.198,换个角度想,目前的打击表现应该有显着的
上升空间,另外他在球季初的K%其实只有20%左右,如果最後10场吞下12K的表现是因
为太久没参与正式比赛造成的疲软,其实是有可能救回来的。另外他在保送率的部分
表现得不错,但攻击速球本来就是他的强项,到了更高层级对多样球种变化的适应也
很值得观察。
拿下Power Showcase Champion的影片:
http://vimeo.com/8870138
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Alexander Simon (20 Y.O. at Rookie/Gulf Coast League)
230 PA, .293/.354/.370, 8.3 BB%, 21.7 K%
Simon came away with the Rays' Dominican Summer League MVP in 2012, but he
found that hitting in the U.S. would be a bit more difficult. He did manage a
.293 average (with a .384 BABIP), but he only had 11 extra base hits and no
home runs through the entire season. In his three year career, Simon has
actually played more games at third base, but all of them came in the DSL
prior to 2013. His decent plate approach helped him post an OPS well above
the GCL average, but unless he can find some power or prove he can sustain
himself as a high BABIP player, I don't see him remaining above average for
long.
Simon是去年光芒在DSL的年度最佳新秀,但到了美国似乎又是另一回事。打击率
.293(BABIP .384),但整季只有11支长打,没有全垒打。三年的职业生涯里镇守三
垒的机会居多,但这都是在 DSL的事情。不错的
进攻模式让他的 OPS高於联盟平均,
除非他可以展现更多
长打能力,或是证明自己是个高 BABIP类型的打者,我不认为他
的成绩可以一直维持在平均之上。
--
※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 140.118.6.244
1F:推 catsondbs :Malm... 11/20 22:50
2F:推 DanielHudson:是说Richie Shaffer未来似乎也有机会往一垒发展? 11/21 03:12
3F:推 srysry :这一系列的文章都是以该年度最多站位做考量.... 11/24 10:07
4F:→ srysry :基本上最後不要只限定在1B 不然就只能拼棒子.. 11/24 10:08
5F:→ srysry :Leonard目前在澳联打球 若是没太突出表现... 11/24 10:09
6F:→ srysry :明年从low A开季也是有可能 11/24 10:09
7F:→ srysry :Seitzer、Malm、Segovia恐怕会在2A聚头.... 11/24 10:10
8F:→ srysry :不知道光芒要怎样疏散新秀 颇为好奇XD 11/24 10:10
9F:→ srysry :不过光芒一向不怎选1B新秀 所以也就养得七零八落@@" 11/24 10:12
10F:推 srysry :感谢翻译与整理 11/24 10:15