原文：http://ppt.cc/rXDd When we think of fall baseball, there’s only one thing that crosses our minds: the postseason. That certainly makes sense–it’s baseball on the biggest stage with a championship on the line. But the playoffs isn’t the only baseball going on in the fall. There is also the Arizona Fall League, and while the teams that win and lose are essentially meaningless, the players involved could end up helping their team win in the other type of fall baseball the following year if their development goes as planned. While the Rays play in the postseason (we hope), eight Rays prospects will take the field in the Arizona Fall League. And among those eight are some of the most talented players in the organization and several players with a chance to make an impact before we know it. Let’s go player by player and break down the Rays’ AFL representatives. 对於关心棒球的人们来说，秋天最大的盛会莫过於季後赛。这很理所当然，因为 全美最棒的几支球团正在这个舞台上竞逐冠军头衔。但这并不是秋天唯一的棒球活动 。Arizona Fall League（亚利桑那秋季联盟，AFL），虽然球队胜负不是这麽重要， 不过参与其中的球员都有潜力在未来的秋天登上最高舞台，为球队在贡献一己之力的 新秀。就在光芒征战季後赛的同时（我们希望），有八位来自光芒的新秀将会拿到前 往Arizona 的机票，而这八位球员有些是天分出众，有些有机会成为黑马绽放光芒， 让我们来分析一下这几位代表光芒前往AFL 的新人吧！ ------ Mike Montgomery, LHP (Durham) The expectations have shifted drastically for Mike Montgomery is recent seasons. Once hailed as the next ace of the Kansas City Royals, Montgomery entered his first season in the Rays organization in 2013 just trying to come up with a baby step in the right direction. At the very least, Montgomery has done just that. His 4.60 ERA is not so impressive, but it has been miles better than his 5.69 ERA in 300.1 innings between 2011 and 2012 (including a stint in Double-A). Montgomery’s control has been iffy at times as he has managed a 6.8 K/9 and a 4.2 BB/9, but he has done a better job keeping his pitches down, resulting in a 0.7 HR/9 and a 46.3% groundball rate. Montgomery is 24 now and we’re almost surely past the point where he can be a topflight major league starter. But with enough progress in the AFL, Montgomery making starts for the Rays next season is certainly in play. 这几年我们对Mike Montgomery 的期待大幅的下滑，这位曾经被视为皇家队下一 位王牌的新秀，今年在光芒开启了一段崭新的旅程，用婴儿学步的节奏尝试走在正确 的道路上。ERA 4.60并不出色，但比起前两年主投300局5.69的ERA，已经有长足的进 步。Montgomery的控球有时不太稳定，每九局三振6.8人次，保送4.2位打者，但他可 以将球投进好球带下缘，每九局只被打出0.7支全垒打，46.3%的滚地球比率就是证明 。24岁的Montgomery几乎可以确定错过了他成为大联盟顶尖投手的时机，但只要在AFL 有长足的进步，明年要在大联盟先发是可以预期的。 Montgomery throws a fastball in the low-90's that he is finally starting to command, but his best pitch is his changeup, which he sells with great arm action and outstanding late downward movement. The Rays had Montgomery start throwing his changeup more left-on-left and a little less against right-handed batters as he hopes to develop his other pitches to match it. The issue with Montgomery has always been his breaking balls. He never really took to a curveball so he has messed around with a slider and a cutter hoping to find that dependable pitch. The Rays have decided to stick with the cutter in the mid-80′s and see if Montgomery can harness that to finally give him a second out-pitch behind his cutter. Montgomery’s lack of that consistent breaking ball at this point limits his potential, but he still could be a number three starter in the major leagues if he improves his cutter just enough to put it in the back of hitters’ minds. His upside isn’t what it used to be, but a number three starter is nothing to scoff at–especially for a player that was the throw-in as part of the James Shields trade. Montgomery有一颗90 mph出头的速球，并渐渐能控制进垒角度，但他最棒的球种 是变速球，这个球种来自於优异的挥臂机制，并且有很明显的下沉轨迹。光芒要求他 在面对左打者时增加这颗球种的比例，在面对右打者时则减少这个球种的频率，藉此 增加用其他球种来挑战打者的机会。Montgomery的问题在於变化球的使用，由於始终 没有掌握曲球的投球诀窍，他透过混搭滑球和80 mph中段的卡特球，期待能从中找到 值得依靠的配球模式。光芒决定今年秋天持续磨练Montgomery的卡特球，然後观察他 在这个情况下能否让这个球路成为决胜的球种。缺乏稳定的变化球限制了他的潜力， 但只要他把卡特球磨练到足以让打者感到威胁，就有机会在大联盟成为三号先发。潜 力不如以往，但如果能养成三号先发也没什麽值得可惜的，毕竟他在James Shields 的交易案里，不过只是配菜的角色。 ------ Grayson Garvin, LHP (Charlotte) Grayson Garvin is exactly the type of pitcher the Arizona Fall League is meant fall. Garvin, 23, was one of the Rays’ supplemental picks in 2011 and underwent Tommy John Surgery in the middle of last season, limiting him to just 24.1 innings this season. In the Arizona Fall League, Garvin will make up some of the balance. Garvin, a 6’6〃 lefty coming out of Vanderbilt (like one David Price) features a low-90′s fastball with sink (although his command hasn’t come back yet after Tommy John), a plus changeup that he throws to batters off both sides, and a slurvy breaking ball that he still hopes to refine. Garvin just needs some innings, and while progress on regaining his command and improving his slider would be optimal, all the Rays really want is for him to stay healthy and pitch his way to Double-A for next season. Garvin has the upside of a number three starter and maybe even a number two if his slider develops dramatically. In the AFL, it will be time for him to start proving that his potential is attainable. Grayson Garvin的类型在Arizona Fall League并不少见，23岁的 Garvin是光芒 在2011年选秀会上的以第一轮补偿选秀选中的球员，去年季中动了Tommy John手术， 使他本季只出赛了24.1局。Garvin有机会在 Arizona补足缺少的投球局数。这位来自 Vanderbilt大学，6'6"的左投手具备90 mph出头的速球且有不错的下沉轨迹（虽然手 术後控球还没回来），水准之上的变速球可以攻击打者的内外角，变化球则还有改进 空间。Garvin只是需要更多出赛机会，重新找回控球，最好还能改善他的滑球，光芒 对他的期待就是保持健康，明年在AA出赛。Garvin具备成为三号先发的潜力，如果滑 球有显着的进步，有机会成为二号先发。AFL就是他证明自己天分最好的机会。 ------ Merrill Kelly, RHP (Durham) If you had said before this year that Merrill Kelly would have a good enough season that the Rays would send him to the Arizona Fall League, people would look at you like you were crazy. Kelly was coming off a mediocre season even after moving from starting to relieving, and all the indications were that he was going nowhere. But following Kelly’s huge breakout season, a spot on the AFL roster has been given to him and a spot on the Rays’ roster at some point next season is not out of the question. Kelly, 24, has delivering a strong season between Double-A and Triple-A, going 13-10 with a 3.61 ERA, a 6.3 K/9, a 3.7 BB/9, and a 0.4 HR/9 in 26 starts, a relief appearances, and 152 innings pitched. His strikeout rate has jumped to 7.6 per 9 in 78.1 Triple-A innings. Kelly, a slim 6’1〃, 170 right-hander, throws his fastball primarily in the 88-90 MPH range with good late life and he is starting to get a better feel for commanding it. The pitch that gives him a chance at a big league future, though, is his changeup, which he sells with great action and also gets good fade on it when he’s going well. Kelly’s breaking ball is slurvy and still needs plenty of work. Kelly is unlikely to be a starter at the next level, but with a deceptive delivery, fastball velocity that will play up, and his great changeup, he could be a great right-on-right middle reliever who isn’t blown away by lefty hitters either. Especially with a strong Arizona Fall League, Kelly could make his way into the Rays’ bullpen by the end of 2014. 如果在球季开打前说Merrill Kelly今年的表现足以让光芒送他到AFL去磨练，其 他人八成认为你疯了。 Kelly去年的表现很平庸，就算从先发移往牛棚仍旧没有明显 进步。但随着本季强势的爆发，他为自己赢得了前往 Arizona的机票，甚至有机会在 明年的某个时间点成为光芒球员名单上的一员。24岁的Kelly今年在AA和AAA都有出赛 纪录，在26场先发，1场後援出赛中，交出13胜10败，每九局三振6.3人次，保送 3.7 位打者，每九局仅被击出0.4发全垒打。在3A的78.1局中，每九局三振进步到7.6次。 这位6'1"，170磅的纤细右投手，直球落在88-90 mph附近，进入本垒板有不错的轨迹 ，控球也慢慢在进步。能支持他在大联盟生存的则是他的变速球，不错的出手动作， 状况好时这颗球种甚至会产生消失的错觉。Kelly 的变化球还需要磨练，他不太可能 在下个层级继续扮演先发的角色，隐匿的出手、努力成长的球速和优异的变速球会帮 助他成为优秀的中段後援。如果今年秋天的表现优异， Kelly有机会在明年年底为光 芒牛棚注入活力。 ------ Matt Ramsey, RHP (Charlotte) Injured players can be very valuable commodities in the draft. If you can find one who showed promise before he got hurt and a good chance of coming back strong, you have a chance to turn a later-round pick into an absolute steal. Matt Ramsey, the Rays’ 19th round pick in 2011, is off to a great start as he tries to do just that. After undergoing Tommy John Surgery after he was drafted, Ramsey was able to make only a handful of appearances even in 2012. But in his full-season debut for the Low-A Bowling Green Hot Rods this year, Ramsey managed a 2.42 ERA, a 12.5 K/9, a 3.5 BB/9, and a 0.3 HR/9 in 20 appearances and 26 innings pitched. And while Charlotte has not treated him as well (3.13 ERA but just a 20-14 K-BB in 23 IP), his stuff speaks for itself. Ramsey, a 23 year old 5’11〃, 205 right-hander, features electric stuff, throwing a mid-90′s fastball with late life and a sharp 11-to-5 curveball. Now the question is whether he can locate his pitches enough to live up to his potential as a late-inning reliever and maybe even a closer. Ramsey got off to a late start because of his injury, but with type of stuff, he has the ability to get on the fast-track to the major leagues. Ramsey will labor immensely in the Arizona Fall League hoping to get a hold of his stuff, and if he does, he could be in the Rays’ bullpen before we know it. 对一位过去有着不错表现的受伤球员来说，如果球团看好他在能够从伤病中复出 ，那麽能在靠後的轮次选到他，就会被认为是选秀会上的一大抢劫。Matt Ramsey 是 光芒在2011年第19轮选中的球员，在历经Tommy John手术後，Ramsey只能在2012年获 得有限的出赛机会。但今年在1A的完整球季，20场出赛，26局的投球中交出ERA 2.42 ，每九局三振12.5人次，保送3.5位打者，每九局仅被击出0.3支全垒打。虽然升上高 阶1A後表现有些下滑（ 23局，ERA 3.13，K/BB 1.47），但球质是货真价实的。这位 23岁5'11"，205磅的右投手，出色的球质是他最大的特色，速球来到90 mph中段，进 入本垒板後会产生位移，另外还有一颗11点钟往 5点钟锐利轨迹的曲球。现在的问题 是他的控球是否足以支持他成为一位後段局数的後援投手，甚至是终结者。Ramsey因 为伤病的关系起步较慢，但只要他能维持这样的球质，要快速升上大联盟并非难事。 Ramsey在 AFL必须努力证明自己的球质，如果做到了，他成为光芒牛棚一员的时间将 会超乎我们预期。 --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.118.148.143 ※ 编辑: csy1911 来自: 140.118.222.50 (09/02 00:37)