http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-tampa-bay-rays-2013/ Despite not making the playoffs in 2012, the Tampa Bay Rays had a very good season. They won 90 games in the American League East, finishing in third place, and were strong on both sides of the ball, posting the eighth-best wRC+ in the majors and the best overall FIP. 尽管去年没能挺进季後赛，2012年仍是光芒成功的球季，去年在美东赢了90场，排名 第三。而在进阶数据wRC+跟FIP上，光芒分别是第八与第一。 That being said, the front office had a busy offseason with B.J. Upton becoming a free agent and James Shields becoming more expensive. So after these last few months of movement, here are some of the questions facing the team as we head into the 2013 season. 虽然如此，FO在忙碌的季後须要面对Upton的离开与Shields逐年渐升的高薪。在这数 个月FO的动作之後，2013球季必须克服一些问题。 What is the rotation outlook after trading Shields? Shields离开後的轮值是？ In December, the Rays pulled off a shocking deal, sending Shields, Wade Davis and Elliot Johnson to the Royals for prospects Wil Myers, Mike Montgomery, Jake Odorizzi and Patrick Leonard.Though Tampa was applauded (as always) for getting a lot of young talent back for a relatively pricy Shields, a reliever, and a spare part, the deal did make the Rays weaker for the upcoming year. 去年12月，光芒做出了惊人的交易，将Shields、Davis以及E.Johnson送到了皇家， 换来了潜力新秀群Myers、Montgomery、Odorizzi跟Leonard。虽然这项交易光芒被 视为赢家(光芒通常都是交易後的赢家)──抢了一堆年轻有才能的新秀，只丢出相 对高薪的Shields、一个RP跟一个替补。但在接下来的球季里，光芒真的变得较弱。 Shields, 31, had a fantastic 2012 campaign, pitching to a 3.47 FIP across 227.2 innings. He was a nice bridge in the rotation between ace David Price and youngsters Jeremy Hellickson and Matt Moore. The Rays do have the depth to compensate for the loss with guys like Alex Cobb, Chris Archer, Jeff Niemann and Roberto Hernandez, and even though they should be good enough, the quality of the innings probably won't be as high. Of course, they still have a more experienced Hellickson and Moore, who both will have to take another step. 31岁的Shields在2012这个惊奇的球季里，227.2局中的FIP是3.47。他在轮值里的角 色，是扮演在王牌Price与年轻投手Hellickson跟Moore之间的重要桥梁。光芒虽然有 极深的轮值人选可以补上，如Cobb、Archer、Niemann和Hernandez，他们都有不错的 实力，但优异的投球内容将无法被取代。 How far will Fernando Rodney regress? Rodney会回复到往年成绩的几成？ The immediate reaction to this question is probably "very far." After all, Rodney, almost 36, had a career year,setting the record for lowest ERA ever posted by a relief pitcher (0.60) as the Rays closer. Before 2012, he had a career 4.29 ERA. Even if he had a career ERA that was relatively low, it would still be close to impossible for him to repeat this performance. However, there is reason to believe that Rodney's numbers weren't just a fluke. 你可能马上会回答"非常多"，毕竟接近36岁的Rodney，去年有完美的生涯年，达成史上ERA 最低的後援投手(0.60)。但在2012球季以前，他生涯ERA总计是4.29。即便他去年达成生涯 最低的ERA纪录，但要他再复制一次这种成绩几乎是不可能的。然而，我们有理由相信这样 的数据不足以证实他的成绩只是侥幸。 First, one big reason why he was able to cut down the runs he allowed was because he reduced his walks. Heading into last year, he had issued almost five passes per nine innings over his career. In 2012, he dropped that down to just 1.81. One reason could be that he has moved where he stands on the rubber. RJ Anderson of Baseball Prospectus wrote about how Rodney has shifted all the way to the first base side of the rubber from the middle. As he points out, it was a radical shift, and it may have helped Rodney mechanically, at least a little bit. 首先，最大的理由来自他能减少保送的次数，以至於能降低了他的失分。去年以前他的 BB/9接近5个人次(根据BR为4.4)，而去年却降低到只有1.81。而造成这样的改变似乎是来 自他在投手板的站位，BP作家RJ Anderson指出Rodney在投手板的站位，比起以前站在 中央的习惯更往一垒移动，因此当他投球出去後，这样的站位会帮助Rodney，至少有一点 点有用。 So yes, there will be a decent amount of regression from Rodney, but maybe not as much as we think if this continues to work. 所以，Rodney的成绩会回到过去的表现，但也许不会那麽多。 How will they replace Upton on offense? 如何取代Upton留下的火力空缺？ This is really going to be the biggest question for Tampa. Upton posted a .323 wOBA and hit 28 homers last season despite getting on base at only a .298 clip. One thing the Rays will need to stay above water on offense is a healthy year from Evan Longoria. Longoria, who just received a huge 10-year extension, played in only 74 games last year, though he posted a .378 wOBA. A full season of the third baseman really would help soften the blow of losing Upton. 这是光芒面临最大的问题。Upton去年提供了.323wOBA与28发红不让打击数据，不过上垒 率才.298。而光芒想在攻击层面上达成平均以上，就得需要龙哥健康打完一个球季。去年 只打74场比赛的他提供了.378wOBA。龙哥完整个球季才能减轻Upton所遗留的火力空缺。 Desmond Jennings will be filling in for Upton in center field, and while he didn't have a great season overall in 2012, he had a very good second half (110 wRC+). He hit the disabled list with a knee injury, and his plate discipline seemed to take a step back, but he's still young (26) and obviously still can get better at picking the right pitches to hit. 建宁会取代Upton守中外野，而他在2012年留下不甚理想的成绩，但是下半球季打击的进阶 数据(110 wRC+)非常不错。去年到DL报到过，选球能力似乎退步，但他仍然年轻，仍然可 以选中好球挥击。 I'm not sure the Rays can completely replace what Upton brought in the speed and power departments (and also on defense for that matter), but better years out of these two guys is a good start in trying. 我无法确定光芒能否填补上Upton以往带来的速度与火力的贡献(防守也是)，但这两人良 好的开季会尝试说服我补上。 What impact will Wil Myers have? Myers会带来甚麽冲击呢？ When the Shields/Myers deal went down, one of the first questions asked was whether Myers was going to start the season with Tampa or with Triple-A Durham. The consensus seems to be that the 22-year-old outfielder will start the year in Durham and will be called up at some point in the middle of the season for service time reasons. 当Myers被交易来了以後，第一个问题是他开季是直上大联盟还是留在3A练经验？很显然 地，大家都认为这个22岁外野手会留在3A，在季中的时候才会被叫上来，理由不外乎让光 芒可以多留他一年。 Baseball America recently ranked Myers the No. 4 prospect in all of baseball, and he also was named the 2012 Minor League Player of the Year by the publication. These honors were well deserved: He hit .314/.387/.600 with 37 homers between Double-A and Triple-A. Though strikeouts are a slight concern, he did whiff less frequently as the season went on, even with the level change. BA将Myers排名为新秀中的第4名，而在BA 2012出版的书籍中被誉为年度最佳新秀。他在 2A与3A的攻击三围为 .314/.387/.600附加37发红不让，而他在三振次数上是需要注意 一下，但仍有进步。 As stated above, the trade made the Rays weaker for the upcoming year, but it also made them stronger for the long term by adding a young, cost-controlled, and potentially powerful bat to their lineup. Myers may not play a big role now , but he could be a nice shot in the arm down the stretch and beyond. 如上所述，这交易使光芒在接下来一年实力变得较弱，但也让光芒在长期发展下更有竞争 力，加入了年轻、便宜、又有打击实力的新秀。Myers也许不会马上升到大联盟，但他的加 入是非常好的选择。 How do they stack up in the American League East? 光芒如何能在美东出头？ The already strong AL East seemingly has gotten stronger over the past few months. 美东火药库已经晋升为美东核爆场。 Starting north of the border, the Blue Jays added some impact ploayers via a couple of trades. They acquired starting pitchers R.A. Dickey, Josh Johnson and Mark Buehrle, along with shortstop Jose Reyes and utility man Emilio Bonifacio. With all that and the signing of Melky Cabrera, Toronto looks ready to contend and appears to be an early favorite to win the division. 从最北边的蓝鸟完成了数项惊人的交易：轮值迎来了Dickey、J.Johnson跟Buehrle，游击 升级成Reyes，UT升级为Bonifacio。签了牛奶弟，看起来就是要拿美东冠军的球队。 The other bottom-feeder of the division in 2012, the Red Sox, got better as well. They added Shane Victorino, a damaged Mike Napoli, and other miscellaneous pieces to their offense and Ryan Dempster and Joel Hanrahan to their pitching staff. They very easily could be right back in contention. 去年垫底的红袜也做了不错的补强：签下夏威夷人、披萨、蛋皮跟Hanrahan Despite losing Nick Swisher and Russell Martin to free agency and suffering some injuries to key players before the season has even started, the Yankees are coming off a 95-win campaign and are always a bet to be right in the thick of things come September. They maintained the status quo with their pitching (Rafael Soriano being the exception) by retaining Andy Pettitte, Hiroki Kuroda, and Mariano Rivera and added Kevin Youkilis and a healthy Brett Gardner on offense. 洋基虽然目送Swisher、Soriano跟Martin离开，几位大咖受伤(铁爷跟A-ROD)，但是有MO 的回归Pettitte与黑田固守轮值，加上新来的希腊走路之神与健康的Gardner。 Finally, the Orioles didn't do much this winter, but as we saw last year, we can't count them out despite a shaky rotation. 最後，金鸟没特别做出补强，但仍不能小瞧他们，就算他们的轮值不太稳固，去年还是上 演了大惊奇。 There's a lot of upside in this division, but there's also a lot question marks. The Rays are not blown away by any team on paper here and could win the division, take a Wild Card, or even miss the playoffs altogether again; there's just so much uncertainty all around. However, barring big injuries, this team should be right in the thick of things throughout the year. 光芒在美东仍有许多优势，但同样也有许多问题。光芒并不会被任何球队吓倒，他们可以 赢得分区冠军、外卡，或是一起放寒假；美东充满了许多不确定因素。然而，远离痛痛 是这支球队在接下来的一年的重要课题。 很久没翻外电了，也很久没排版了...如有错误或刺眼的地方请多纠正。:) --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 36.233.206.5 ※ 编辑: qazwsdf 来自: 36.233.206.5 (03/12 15:02) 感谢arsenefrog大的指正:) 没想到Agency大出现了！！ 感谢您的指正:) ※ 编辑: qazwsdf 来自: 36.233.206.5 (03/12 19:11)