2013 Tampa Bay Rays Top 15 Prospects 原文：http://ppt.cc/fMep For years, prospect mavens have considered the Rays one of the standard bearers for impact potential and overall depth throughout the minor league system. While they have dipped a little from their peak of a few years ago, the addition of Will Myers and Jake Odorizzi provides two very good prospects that boost the system and augment talents like Taylor Guerrier, Chris Archer and Hak-Ju Lee. While the Rays system may not be the envy of everyone in the league like it used to be, it is still the envy of most of the league. 近几年来，研究新秀的专家们都认为在所有小联盟系统里，光芒是同时兼具天分和深度 的农场之一。虽然星度随着顶级新秀陆续毕业有些下滑，但在交易来Wil Myers和Jack Odorizzi後拉高了不少评价，Taylor Guerrieri、Chris Archer和Hak-Ju Lee则是原本 就是天分极高的新秀。也许光芒农场不像几年前星光闪闪，但仍然是其他球团值得羡慕 的强项。 1. Wil Myers – OF (Last Year’s Rank: NR) The headline prospect in the winter deal that sent James Shields to Kansas City, Myers is one of the top handful of prospects in the entire game. Both his power and hitting ability rate as at least plus tools with many scouts willing to go higher on the scouting scale. He projects as a quality defender in right field and his potential as a dynamite middle of the order hitter makes him an elite-level prospect. 1. Wil Myers，外野手，去年排名：NR 作为去年冬天James Shields交易案的主菜，Myers是联盟里为数不多的顶级新秀之一， 水准之上的长打力和打击技巧让球探们愿意在评分表上给他较高的评价。会是一位有水 准的右外野手，而他的球棒将会让他以中心打者的身分成为精英等级的新秀。 2. Taylor Guerrieri – RHP (3) I had the opportunity to scout Guerrieri six times last summer and to say I am a believer would be selling my opinion short. Even with decreased velocity as he endured the longest season of his career, Guerrieri’s fastball had excellent sink and induced plenty of weak contact. He has an uncanny ability to pound the strike zone with his entire arsenal, and given the Rays success developing pitchers, I believe the velocity will bounce back and he could be a number two starter. 2. Taylor Guerrieri，右投手，3 去年夏天看了六次Guerrieri的比赛，我想我很有资格来说说他的表现。虽然在生涯最 长的球季里，球速有所下滑，但Guerrieri的速球有很棒的下沉轨迹，这也使得打者无 法有效击中球心。有种神秘的魔力让武器落在好球带内。考虑到光芒培养投手的光荣 传统，我相信他的球速会反弹，而且会成为二号先发。 3. Chris Archer – RHP (4) There has always been talk that Archer could end up in the bullpen and that talk will exist until he demonstrates and ability to start in the big leagues. Archer has the raw stuff to succeed in any role thanks to a plus-plus fastball and arguably the best slider in the minor leagues. He can miss tons of bats and even if his change-up maxes out as a fringe-average pitch and his command does not develop, he can fit in the number four spot in a big league rotation, while always having the potential to reach higher. 3. Chris Archer，右投手，4 在Archer证明自己能在大联盟以先发投手站稳脚步前，有关他最後会成为後援投手的流 言不会停止。顶级的速球和全农场最棒的滑球让Archer的球质足以胜任任何角色，虽然 变速球和控球都不够成熟，但他已有实力能让打者不断挥空。我想他会成为四号先发， 但有实力养成更中心的角色。 4. Hak-Je Lee – SS (2) Lee is a supreme defender with the ability to pick it with the best of them at the big league level. His arm fits well on the left side of the infield with at least plus grades from scouts, while his speed also earns plus scores. Lee can get the bat to the ball and has a good idea of the strike zone but he lacks punch with bottom of the scale power and may only be capable of hitting an empty .250 in the big leagues. Lee could survive as an everyday shortstop but the defense will have to come as advertised in every way. 4. Hak-Je Lee，游击手，2 Lee是优异的防守者，而这可能是他站稳大联盟最棒的武器。被球探评为水准之上的臂力 让他在内野左侧的表现如鱼得水，同时他的速度也有不错的评价。Lee可以有效击球和选 球，但缺乏长打能力的他可能只能在大联盟交出.250的打击率。我相信Lee可以以他的防 手成为正规的游击手。 5. Richie Shaffer – 3B (NR) A first round pick of the Rays in 2012, Shaffer has a power profile that could make him an impact big leaguer. He is a solid hitter with a good approach, allowing his power to come through in game situations and even though he strikes out plenty, he can hit 20+ home runs on the back of a .275 average. Shaffer will have to hit with his rough defensive profile. He lacks the projection to remain at third base and could end up on an outfield corner or at first base down the line. 5. Richie Shaffer，三垒手，NR 光芒去年选秀第一轮的收获，Shaffer具备能在大联盟生存的长打能力，稳定且优秀的 挥棒轨迹可以让他在比赛中完美的释放力量，也许会有许多三振但.275的打击率和20+ 的全垒打是可以期待的。Shaffer的防守有些粗糙，缺乏在三垒生存的前景，也许会转 到角落外野或是一垒。 6. Jake Odorizzi – RHP (NR) Odorizzi's profile centers on a wealth of solid tools rather than anything exceptional. His fastball is his best pitch, sitting in the low-90s with good movement and touching 95 mph in rare instances. He mixes his change-up, curveball and slider into his outings well and is showing an improved ability to command his entire arsenal. What Odorizzi lacks in flash, he makes up for in certainty, as he has a high likelihood of fulfilling his potential as a third or fourth starter. 6. Jake Odorizzi，右投手，NR Odorizzi没有特别优异的天赋，但他的实力相当坚强。速球是他最棒的球种，球速可以 稳定的停留在low-90s左右，最快可以到95 mph，搭配上变速球、曲球和滑球可以让他 顺利解决打者，同时也展现了在控球上的进步。Odorizzi不会是闪光灯的焦点，但能肯 定的是他能带来稳定的贡献。他很有机会完全将潜力转换成实力，应该会是潜在的三到 四号先发。 7. Blake Snell – LHP (NR) Snell should have been on this list somewhere last year and that is a mistake I pointed out in the Rays Accountability Check earlier today. He has an ideal pitcher's frame with tons of room to add strength and add to his plus fastball and he could work in the 93-94 mph range down the line. Both his slider and change-up show promise and some scouts I spoke with in the Appy League last year believed both could be plus pitches in time. Snell needs to refine his control and command profile in order to reach his ceiling as a mid-rotation workhorse. 7. Blake Snell，左投手，NR Snell去年没在这份榜单上真是一大错误。理想的投手身材，同时有很多机会变得更壮 ，并提高目前落在93-94 mph的速球。滑球和变速球都展现很棒的品质，去年我和APPY 的球探讨论过，有些人认为再过一段时间，这两个球种都有水准之上的实力。如果 Snell能改进控球上的缺点，他将会是可以吃下大量局数的中段轮值。 8. Alex Colome – RHP (6) I can't get past a relief profile for Colome but he could be an impact player in that role. His fastball works in the 93-94 mph range during starts and he has shown the ability to work in the 95-97 mph range in shorter bursts. His curveball has excellent velocity separation from his fastball and also shows hard, late break. Colome's max-effort delivery precludes his command development and can sometimes leave him without the ability to find the strike zone. With any luck, Colome could be a seventh or eighth inning power arm. 8. Alex Colome，右投手，6 我仍然认为Colome会是一位後援投手，他也有实力以这个角色为球队带来贡献。先发时 ，球速大约落在93-94 mph，但偶尔也会有95-97 mph的演出。他的曲球轨迹大，变化慢 ，配上直球可以产生很大的速差。Colome在棒球场上的努力并没有表现在控球上，这也 使他有时会找不到好球带。幸运的话，他会是球队在第七或第八局的强力後援。 9. Felipe Rivero – RHP (NR) An undersized righty, Rivero doesn't lack for raw potential and if you can get past his size, he looks like a potential mid-rotation arm. He already works in the low-90s with his fastball and shows good command for his age, leaving him with additional projection as he reaches physical maturity. Both of Rivero’s secondary pitches have at least average potential and the curveball will flash better than that. He is miles from the big leagues but he has to be watched closely as a potential breakout arm. 9. Felipe Rivero，右投手，NR 小只的右投手，Rivero并不缺乏天分，甚至如果忽略他的体型，他会是潜在的中段轮值 人选。90 mph出头的直球球速和超越同龄的控球，使球探对他在成熟期时的表现有额外 的期待。Rivero的两种第二球种都有机会至少有联盟平均的潜力，曲球会是比较出色的 球种。离大联盟还很远，但他充满潜力的手臂很值得持续观察。 10. Drew Vettleson – OF (8) Not unlike Jake Odorizzi ahead of him, Vettleson earns plenty of points for doing a lot of things solidly but doesn’t do anything at a top-flight level. He has a sound approach at the plate, though his bat-to-ball skills still lead to some swing and miss. He should be an average hitter with some walks and 15-18 home runs at his peak. His defense in right field will be solid as well and his arm is his best tool, working in the plus-plus range. Vettleson isn’t a flashy prospect but he should be at least a fourth outfielder and could be a solid everyday guy if he fulfills every part of his potential. 10. Drew Vettleson，外野手，8 和Jack Odorizzi很像，Vettleson有全方位的实力，但没有特别出色的天赋。虽然在击 球技巧上还有待磨练，但挥棒轨迹健全。平均的打击者，可以选到一些保送，最多15到 18发全垒打。出色的防守范围和臂力，可以让他在右外野有稳定的守备表现。Vettleson 并不是抢眼的新秀，但至少会是四号外野手，如果潜力完整开发，将会是外野的固定先 发。 11. Mike Montgomery – LHP (NR) I noted during my Kansas City Royals Accountability Check that I have had a hard time quitting on Montgomery. Okay folks, I’m still having a hard time doing it. My name is Mark Anderson and I have a Mike Montgomery problem. There's just too much to like in his past and I am a big believer in how the Rays develop and polish pitching prospects. Color me hopeful that the Rays can work some magic with Montgomery and coax a mid-rotation starter out of him. I may be writing here next year and have a lot of egg on my face, but I’m going to stand firm on this one. 11. Mike Montgomery，左投手，NR 在皇家新秀排名时，我很挣扎要不要把Montgomery踢出名单，现我又遇到相同的问题。 我对他过去的表现印象深刻，同时我对光芒调教年轻投手的能力深信不疑。但愿光芒可 以在Montgomery身上施点魔法让他以中段轮值的身分破茧而出，如果事与愿违…我想明 年我的脸上会砸满很多鸡蛋，但我仍对他很有信心。 12. Oscar Hernandez – C (NR) This is a lofty ranking for Hernandez; a player that still has a long, long way to go to the big leagues. He has plenty of refinements to make behind the plate but he has made progress since signing and should be an average defender in time. Where Hernandez stands out is with the bat. He has an excellent feel for the barrel, good bat speed and strength that lead to plenty of raw power and a decent approach for his age. He has work to do, particularly in handling secondary pitches, but his bat could carry him. 12. Oscar Hernandez，捕手，NR 这个排名对Hernandez来说可能有点高，毕竟他距离大联盟还有很长很长的路要走。他 在本垒板後的技巧还有很多地方值得磨练，但和签约时相比，他已经展现了很显着的 进步，未来防守应该可以达到联盟水准。Hernandez最出色的地方在打击，对球棒的掌 很出色，不错的挥棒速度和强壮的身材，让他可以自然的发挥力量并展现与同龄相较 合格的挥棒轨迹。还有很多试炼等着他，特别是接捕变化球的技巧，但棒子可以把他 带到更高的殿堂。 13. Tim Beckham – SS (10) I still like Beckham and think he plays for an extended period in the big leagues. He is a fringy defender at shortstop but has the tools to handle both third base and second base defensively, giving excellent versatility. He does a lot of things at a decent level at the plate and won’t be a punchless utility player when he settles onto the Rays roster. 13. Tim Beckham，游击手，10 对Beckham的喜爱依旧，而且我认为他会在大联盟生存一大段时间。游击防守徘徊在水 准边缘，但要转守二垒或三垒应该没问题，也可为球队带来多元性，并以工具人的身 分为球队带来许多贡献，当他在光芒名册占有一席之地时，也不会成为自动出局数。 14. Jose Castillo – LHP (NR) I just couldn't keep myself from doing this. Castillo is the type of prospect I live for and even though I know the incredible risk associated with talents like this, Castillo has a chance to be absolutely special. Signed for $1.55 million last summer, Castillo already has a mature 6-foot-4, 200 pound frame that has projection remaining and there are hints that his fastball that already runs in the low-90s could be a complete monster down the line. He shows occasional feel for his secondary pitches but needs a lot of work to refine them. There’s a ton of risk here but I just can’t stop myself from including him at the back of the list. 14. Jose Castillo，左投手，NR 我无法控制自己不把Castillo放在榜单上，他有明知必须承担极大风险，还是会冒险 投资的天分，他有机会成为特别的球员。去年夏天以$1.55M签约的Castillo具备成熟 的身材，这也是他年纪轻轻球速就上达low-90s的原因，而且可预期在未来会有更大 幅度的成长。他偶尔可以投出不错的变化球，但还需要很多努力去雕琢。风险极高， 但我无法克制自己不让他成为这份榜单上的一员。 15. Jake Hager – SS (12) I like Hager's overall profile but still question just how much impact potential he has. His glove work is fine for now but he is not a natural looking shortstop and could shift to either side before his development is complete. At the plate, Hager has a decent approach, solid contact skills and the ability to drive the ball to all fields. He should show really good gap power and could ultimately pop 12-15 home runs a year. I don’t think Hager will ever be an elite prospect but he should steadily climb the ladder and reach the big leagues. 15. Jake Hager，游击手，12 喜欢Hager的表现，但还有许多问题需要他去证明。他目前的防守表现很棒，但看起来 不是天生的游击手，可能会在更高层级移往二垒或三垒。打击上，Hager有合格的挥棒 轨迹，稳定的击球技巧，而且能把球打到每个角落。他已经展现很不错的长打实力， 也许每年可以敲出12-15支全垒打，我不认为Hager会成为顶尖新秀，但他有稳定晋升 至大联盟的实力。 心得： 这份榜单有趣的地方在於作者并不害怕拔擢高天分但完成度低的新秀，前10名和各家差 不多，但没看到Enny Romero和Mikie Mahtook让我有些小意外，毕竟这两位球员论天分 和完成度都不输Felipe Rivero和Drew Vettleson。 另一个有趣的是，根据BA和MLB.com去年的国际选秀排名，光芒拿下最有天分的投手新 秀并非Jose Castillo，而是Jose Mujica（有球探认为他是下一个Felix Hernandez） ，但作者给前者的评价很明显比後者高，而这两位球员还没正式为光芒出赛，就获得 如此高的赞扬，也为低阶联盟的投手深度提供一些可看性。 --

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