外传科科提很爱我们家的神盾 对於这样的传闻 Rays colored glasses提出可能的交易包裹 资料来源：http://ppt.cc/p-xb 文章很长就不细翻 先说结论好噜 Tampa Bay Rays trade RHP James Shields, INF Reid Brignac, and RHP Jason McEachern to the Los Angeles Dodgers in exchange for LHP Chris Reed, OF Joc Pederson, C Tim Federowicz, UTIL Alex Castellanos, and OF/1B Scott Van Slyke. 以下简单交代交易的新秀 Federowicz可以补充TB所欠缺的捕手新秀且完成度很高 Federowicz, who turned 25 in August, is coming off a great offensive year at Triple-A in 2012, albeit in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, posting a .294/.371/.461 line with 34 doubles, 11 homers, 76 RBI, and 91 strikeouts versus 52 walks in 115 games and 475 plate appearances, and he also posted a 39% caught stealing rate defensively with just 3 passed balls. Federowicz stands out most for his defense, where he’s an excellent receiver (something that the Rays have shown themselves to value especially much as they keep Jose Molina on the roster) to go along with smooth actions defensively and a good arm, and he has a chance to be a solid offensive catcher, hitting for a solid average with a little power and a pretty good on-base percentage. Federowicz is certainly not the most impressive catching prospect out there, but he’s better than anything the Rays have right now, a group that consists of Molina, Jose Lobaton, Robinson Chirinos, and Chris Giminez, and could compete for a big league job alongside Molina immediately. Federowicz can’t be the headline piece in a deal like this, but he’s definitely a player the Rays could be interested in. Castellanos是一个有炮瓦的工具人，也接近完成 Alex Castellanos fits that mold and could be a player the Rays could use immediately to help improve their situations in the outfield and at second base. Castellanos, another older prospect having turned 26 in August, had an enormous season at Triple-A in 2012, posting a .328/.420/.590 line with 25 doubles, 7 triples,17 homers, 52 RBI, 16 of 24 stolen bases, and 85 strikeouts against 46 walks in 94 games in 407 plate appearances while playing second base, third base, and both corner outfield positions. Castellanos won’t be nearly that good in the big leagues, but he shows a nice power-speed combination with the bat speed and patience to hit for a solid average and OBP. Castellanos is expendable for the Dodgers thanks to their crowded situation in the outfield and the presence of Elian Herrera. Castellanos is a very similar in just about every possible way to a player the Rays already have, Brandon Guyer, with both being older prospects and right-handed hitters that have piqued interest with their power-speed combinations, but Castellanos adds in the wrinkle that he can play the infield. And with both Guyer and Castellanos lacking significant big league experience, the Rays could double their odds of getting at least one capable player by having both of them in the fold. Castellanos also looks to be a better all-around player than the utility types the Rays have around right now, although he can’t handle shortstop. Castellanos is once again not the most exciting prospect, but he’s another player it could make sense for the Rays to target as a secondary piece in a potential trade. Van Slyke可以捕强TB的1B/OF位置的深度，也是接近完成的新秀 One last possible need-filling piece the Rays could acquire from the Dodgers without eliciting much of a quibble could be outfielder/first baseman Scott Van Slyke. Van Slyke, who turned 26 in July, was another player at Triple-A for the Dodgers who had a huge year, posting a .327/.404/.578 line with 34 doubles, 18 homers, 67 RBI, and 64 strikeouts versus 46 walks in 95 games and 411 plate appearances. Van Slyke, the son of 3-time All-Star Andy Van Slyke, features the power to potentially hit 30 home runs in the big leagues from a short stroke although patience and pitch recognition have been issues for him in the past. Van Slyke has played both corner outfield spots in addition to first base in the past but has struggled defensively wherever he has gone and he’s going to have to hit quite a bit to stick in the major leagues. With Adrian Gonzalez signed long-term at first base and a crowded situation in the outfield, Van Slyke doesn’t look to crack the Dodgers’ starting lineup anytime soon, but the Rays could offer him at-bats at first base and designated hitter immediately. Van Slyke can’t be any worse than Carlos Pena and Luke Scott were for the Rays in 2012, and he has the ability to be a solid hitter in the middle of the Rays lineup if everything goes well. There you have three players that the Dodgers have that could compete for roster spots on the Rays immediately and represent improvements over what the Rays currently have on their roster, and the Dodgers would not hesitate even a second to part with them to acquire Shields. But the critical part of this trade will be the prospects with the potential to make the Rays a better team in the long-term even as they move on without the most dependable starter in their history in Shields. 一个很有潜力的外野新秀Joc Pederson One Dodgers prospect that could really intrigue the Rays could be 20 year old outfielder Joc Pederson. Pederson is coming off a great year at High-A for the Dodgers, posting a .313/.396/.516 line with 24 doubles, 18 homers, 70 RBI, 26 of 40 stolen bases, and 81 strikeouts versus 51 walks in 110 games and 499 plate appearances. Defensively, he played primarily centerfielder and posted 9 outfield assists. Pederson shows five average or better tools, featuring great bat speed from a short stroke with an all-fields approach and solid power, and he’s an above-average runner with good instincts on the basepaths and in the outfield to go along with a good arm, although he may fit best in left or right field as opposed to center moving forward. Pederson has a chance to hit for a nice average in the major leagues to go along with 20 homers and 25 steals and good outfield defense. Pederson still has to work on hitting the ball with a little more authority in order to avoid becoming a tweener, a corner outfielder who lacks the power to profile there, but he has a chance to be an excellent big league player, and he’ll be just 21 years old as he heads to Double-A in 2013. Why would the Dodgers be willing to trade Pederson? Once again, the reason is because of their extremely crowded picture in the outfield moving forward. Pederson has the talent the Rays want and is expendable enough for the Dodgers that he could be a central piece of a Shields trade. 最後挑一个可能可以交易的投手新秀Chris Reed And this trade has to finish with a pitching prospect- the Rays aren’t going to trade Shields and not recoup at least a little of their pitching depth in return. With the Dodgers’ top pitching prospect, Zach Lee, likely untouchable, and several of the Dodgers’ top pitching prospects either struggling in 2012 or getting traded away, the best option for the Dodgers to trade might be their 2011 first round pick Chris Reed. Reed, 22, tossed just 70.1 innings in 2012 while dealing with a shoulder injury, although a lot of that was precautionary, and he pitched pretty well when he was on the mound, going just 1-8 but with a 3.97 ERA, an 8.6 K/9, a 4.4 BB/9, and a 0.4 HR/9 in 17 starts and 2 relief appearances between High-A and Double-A. Reed throws a four-seam fastball that reaches the high-90′s but works primarily with a low-90′s two-seamer that he commands well down in the zone but struggled to control in 2012. He also throws a slider that shows flashes but was ineffective for Reed for much of 2012 to go along with a changeup that hasn’t progressed as much as Reed and the Dodgers would like. Reed has considerable potential but other than the problems with his pitches, particularly his fastball control, the movement on his slider, and his changeup, a major concern for Reed moving forward is durability- he hasn’t thrown a 100-inning season in his life, working as a reliever at Stanford and being limited because of his shoulder this season. He has the stuff to start but may end up in a relief role if he can’t build up the stamina to start. Reed is a player that would be tough for the Dodgers to part with, but there is certainly risk involved with him and the Dodgers may be willing to let him go to make this Shields trade materialize. 就是尽可能拿有炮瓦的选手来补充TB所缺少的那一块 不过这样40人名单竞争也会更激烈 不过对方3A是打者天堂的联盟 数据就加减欣赏 科科提要有诚意才会感动安猪 Shields也不是不可交易 有Zach Lee更好（幻想） 提供大家讨论看看 -- --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 111.240.209.48 ※ 编辑: srysry 来自: 111.240.209.48 (11/04 08:11) Shields好歹在美东也是稳定输出的投手 科科提认为道奇缺少一个稳定的工作马（连续6年都200IP以上） 不觉得他有缺少多少经验就是 而且也有丰富的季後赛经验 尤其他们的先发群有不少有伤病疑虑 而且Shields的合约比黑田更低 明年10.25M 後年还有选择权 最多12M 买断1M 而且还可以有再开QO赚补偿新秀的可能 也不用损失到第一轮选秀 另外上面这些新秀 有的位置也有被道奇长约的打者档死 是否能成为适应mlb的打者也还言之过早 Ex:交易到红袜的Sands 总之只是一种讨论如果要换的可能提案而已 有点误会所以我删除那补充好噜 其他是我的一点意见 当然在TB一直说Shields多好也难免自夸 提供一点意见作为参考 基本上主要是回应之前有人在关心道奇所能提供的农场新秀 至於这个交易是否合理 就看道奇科科提自己的想法 新的报价来自双城...Chris Parmelee + ( Denard Span or Ben Revere )... ※ 编辑: srysry 来自: 111.240.209.48 (11/05 20:54) ※ 编辑: srysry 来自: 111.240.209.48 (11/06 08:40)