※ [本文转录自 MLB 看板 #1FlSC4zr ] 作者: JakeMcGee (Jake McGee) 看板: MLB 标题: [外电] Rodney's Fortune On Called Strikes 时间: Thu May 24 13:11:30 2012 Other Side Of The Coin: Rodney's Fortune On Called Strikes Sam Waters | Friday, May 18, 2012 At 2:18AM http://tinyurl.com/7mqcsad Fernando Rodney has been one of this season's most pleasant surprises in relief, as Mr. Golebiewski noted yesterday. An average to below-average pitcher for most of his career (4.13 ERA, 4.07 FIP), Rodney suddenly sports a 0.48 ERA with 9.16 K/9 and 1.45 BB/9 through the first quarter of the 2012 season. The strikeouts are not too far out of line with his career profile, but the lack of walks are shocking from a guy who has never flashed even average control. His career BB/9 is 4.73, so the main question here is the sustainability of Rodney's newfound command. Rodney是这季RP里的亮点。一位生涯ERA低於联盟平均的RP(4.13ERA) 目前缴出0.48ERA 9.16 K/9 1.45 BB/9 的亮丽成绩 他的K/9看起来跟生涯差不多 但~是~~Rodney生涯BB/9是惊人的 4.73 所以他的成绩是否能够维持 要看他的控球 One good indicator of truly improved command would be an increase in number of pitches thrown in the strike zone. From 2008 to 2011, Rodney's respective Zone Percentages (Pitches in Strike Zone/Pitches) were 48.2%, 51.2%, 49.7%, 46.2%. This year he finds himself at 48.6%, which doesn't seem at all out of line with his previous rates. So if Rodney is not getting the ball in the zone more often, what is he doing differently? 一个好的观测投手控球方式 就是看投手投进好球带的数量。 从Rodney过往的数据来看 2008 48.2% 2009 51.2% 2010 49.7% 2011 46.2% (并不超过5成) 那这季呢? 48.6% 并没有看出来他控球有变好 所以为什麽Rodney投进好球带差不多的好球 但是BB却下降? Golebiewski does a great job of covering one of the main changes- batters are chasing more of Rodney's pitches out of the zone, turning would-be balls into strikes. But Rodney has seen another key change in his profile that is playing an important role in his success. He has recorded a called strike rate of 17.2% on pitches taken out of the zone. Assuming that the In Depth Baseball platform is both accurate and unbiased in its pitch location tendencies, 17.2% of these pitches are “missed calls”- called strikes that should have been balls. Out of 305 pitchers with at least 100 pitches outside of the zone, Rodney stands at tenth in called strike rate (Brett Lawrie got some first-hand experience with Rodney's luck on called strikes this week, and was not too pleased about it.) For Rodney to sustain such a low walk rate, he is going to have to continue to get the same amount of leeway from umpires that he has been receiving up to this point. Golebiewski这位先生发现了惊人的事实?! 1.就是打者增加了去打Rodney坏球的次数 2.更重要的是 被主审判定是好球的 有「17.2%」是在好球带外面的。 在305位投手中(都至少投在好球带外100球以上) 坏球被判好球排名 Rodney在前十杰 [Lawrie就是受害者之一] Many pitchers do consistently get more respect than others from umpires when it comes to the fringe of the strike zone. Mariano Rivera, for example, has always gotten some breathing room from umps, posting above-average called strike rates on pitches outside of the zone every year since 2008 (when In Depth's data starts). A player's pitch selection can also affect this rate, as certain types of pitches are called incorrectly more often. The problem is that Fernando Rodney has never demonstrated an affinity for getting generous calls on pitches outside of the strike zone. 主审有时候会对某些球员投在好球带边缘的球更尊重(也就是会多判好球) (当然这些球员具备一致且良好的控球) 举例: Mariano Rivera， Mo自从2008年以来被判好球大概高於平均一些 另外打击者的选球当然也会影响主审的判定 问题是Rodney从来就不是这样的球员 也没有近似的情形 Rodney's Pitches Outside of the Strike Zone G P PA ClStk% 2012 18 133 27 17.2% 2011 39 332 67 4.2% 2010 72 643 131 6.1% 2009 72 650 127 7.5% 2008 36 388 80 9.2% Total 237 2146 432 7.4% His career called strike rate of 7.4% outside the zone is significantly lower than his 2012 rate of 17.4%. The heat maps below do a good job of demonstrating the difference between the more familiar Rodney of old and the Rodney of 2012 in their luck with strike calls. The first map shows the calls Rodney has gotten this year in a sample of just 133 pitches, while the second map shows Rodney’s calls received over the previous four seasons with a sample of about 2,000 pitches: 他的生涯投在好球带外面被判好球大概是7.4% 远低於今年的17.4% 下方的图可以更清楚表示出2012年版的Rodney跟旧的Rodney的差别 但今年他的样本是133球 但前四季是2000球的样本 2012, Outside of Strike Zone http://tinyurl.com/7wzwqx3 2008-2011, Outside of Strike Zone http://tinyurl.com/7cvlnny If Rodney regresses from the results of the first map to those of the second, or even to a middle ground around the league average of 10%, he should experience a precipitous decline in strikes and a corresponding rise in walks. Just remember that this comes with a caveat- if Rodney really has changed his approach and is, for example, getting a lot more movement on his pitches, it is possible that umpires will continue to have a difficult time calling his pitches correctly. One adjustment that stands out is Rodney's decision to transfer about 7% of his arsenal from change-ups to fastballs. A look at pitchers over the last five years shows that fastballs outside the zone are called strikes at an above average rate (about 12%), while change-ups outside the zone are called strikes at a below average rate (about 8%). While this might explain some of Rodney's jump in incorrect strike calls, it doesn't seem to justify a 10% leap. 如果Rodney从一张图移动到第二张图 或是移动到联盟平均的10% 他将会面临到BB增加的问题 但是记得 如果Rodney真的改变了他投球方式 让他的球有更多的位移 那麽主审很可能继续在判坏球还是好球的困境中 Rodney今年也增加使用直球的数量 在近五年的分析中 直球投到好球带外被判成好球的机率是12%(高於平均) 变速球投到好球带被判成好球的机率则是8%(低於平均) 当然这可以是Rodney被判好球增加的原因 但不太可能增加10% It will be interesting to see if Rodney's strikeout rate on would-be balls regresses to the mean over the rest of the season. Even if this initial spike was just a result of luck or randomness, it is plausible that Rodney's early-season success translates to umpires giving him the same respect over the rest of the season that they give pitchers like Mariano Rivera. 如果剩下的赛季中Rodney "被判好球的坏球"调整回平均 那他的三振率将会很有趣 就算Rodney一开始的数据是幸运或是随机 不能把它看成Rodney剩下的球季有了等同Mo被主审青睐的程度 Continuing along this line of speculation, if Rodney continues to get an expanded strike zone, hitters may be forced to continue chasing pitches outside of the zone, compounding the positive effect of Rodney's luck on called strikes. But if umpires start to call a “normal” size strike zone for Rodney, this could lead to an adjustment by hitters, as they no longer feel compelled to chase balls. This would leave Rodney with both less called strikes and less swinging strikes. 如果Rodney持续拥有比较大的好球带 那麽打者将会去追打原本好球带以外的球 这将会加强Rodney投坏球却被判好球的结果 但如果主审开始回复「原本大小」的好球带 也会让打者去做挥击上的调整(不去追打坏球) Of course, it is important to remember that this is mostly educated guesswork. The only real takeaway here is simply that umpires are calling a lot of strikes for Fernando Rodney on pitches that should probably be balls. There are plenty of reasons to declare this change an aberration, but it is not impossible that Rodney keeps this up. Just don't be too surprised if umpires start giving him a normal amount of leeway outside the zone, his BB/9 settles in closer to his career rates, and Fernando Rodney, closer extraordinaire, doesn't look quite so dominant by September. 当然 很重要的 你必须知道 这只是猜测 事实是主审举了很多原本是坏球的球 还有很多原因会导致这样的结果 但是他不太可能继续保持这样的成绩 然後别太讶异 主审开始会给他正常的好球带 ==== Jose Molina接补统计文章 http://tinyurl.com/84k93zo 之前有版友分享过就不再翻译 ==== 是不是摸二哥接补让Rodney变强? 不管你信不信 反正我是信了 --

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※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ※ 转录者: JakeMcGee (1.171.108.232), 时间: 05/24/2012 13:43:39