原文：http://ppt.cc/6Iwd As we all know, the Rays are looking to trade a starting pitcher this offseason. Yeah yeah, Andrew Friedman claims that he's happy with his current depth and isn't going to trade anyone, but we should all be able to see through his doubletalk by now. The Rays need to open up a rotation spot for Matt Moore (or to begin the season, Alex Cobb), and we've already heard rumors that Jeff Niemann and Wade Davis are on the trade market. 如我们所知，光芒在这个休赛期会尝试将一位先发投手交易掉。Andrew Friedman的确宣 称他对目前的深度很满意，不会交易任何人，但我们还是能猜出一些端倪。为了让Matt Moore(季初是Alex Cobb)，已经听到关於交易Jeff Niemann和Wade Davis的消息。 Odds are one of the Rays' starters gets dealt this offseason, and it'll likely be one of three pitchers: Niemann, Davis, or Cobb. The trick is, which pitcher do the Rays think they can get the most return for? 可能被交易出去的投手有Niemann、Davis或Cobb。重点是，那位投手可以让光芒得到最 大的收获。 The common assumption around here seems to be that Wade Davis is the likely candidate to go. He's young and under a very affordable contract for the next three seasons (with three more team options), and he's shown the potential to be a solid, dependable starter. Yet the more I look at Davis' numbers, the more I begin to wonder: are we vastly overestimating Davis' trade value? 这个假设让Wade Davis成为交易名单的候选人，年轻、三年便宜的合约(外加三年球队选 项)，展现成为可靠实用的先发投手的潜力。但看越多数据，就越怀疑是不是高估了他的交 易价值？ Consider: Wade Davis has now thrown nearly 400 innings in the majors and he's entering his age 26 season, yet he has a career 4.55 FIP and 4.61 SIERA. His strikeout rate has declined each of the past three seasons, and he's an extreme flyball pitcher (42%) that has benefited from playing in the pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field. His peripheral statistics stunk in 2010, and he only got worse in 2011. 试想一下：快满26岁的Wade Davis已经在大联盟投了将近400局，生涯却是4.55 FIP， 4.61 SIERA。三振率逐年下滑，这位飞球型投手在纯品康纳球场占了不少便宜，'10年成绩 不理想，'11年表现更糟。 When you dig into Davis' stats a bit more, the picture doesn't necessarily get any prettier. His strikeout rate was below average against both righties (12%) and lefties (14%) last season, but he actually had some success in keeping lefties in the park (0.8 HR/9, 3.81 FIP). And it's not like he was working with a pitch repertoire that was only suited for one hand or the other; he features both a slider and a curveball, which should give him a weapon against both hands. He simply couldn't get many whiffs with either pitch last season, though -- 15-20%, max. 深入来看，Davis的表现也没比较好，对左右打的三振率都低於平均(L：14%，R：12%)， 但确实压低左打者将球打出场外的机率(0.8 HR/9，3.81 FIP)，这表示他不是只能特别对 决右打或左打。变化球路有滑球和曲球，不论面对左右打都能做为武器。上季两种球路都 投得不多，最多也就15-20%。 All this doesn't even mention his injury history. While he's no Jeff Niemann, Davis has gone on the DL each of the past two seasons with some ailment or the other. These stints may have been for minor injuries, but it still likely raises question marks in the eyes of other teams. 还没提到他的伤病史。他不是Jeff Niemann，但过去两季也出现在伤兵名单。虽然都是 小伤，但还是可能会提高其他球队的质疑。 If you want to look at the positives, Davis did post improved strikeout numbers and peripherals from late July on. But even at his best last season, he was an average pitcher (4.31 FIP in August) and struggled to keep his K:BB ratio above two. He's not exactly a young ace, or even a pitcher that looks like he has much upside at the moment. If it wasn't for his minor league history and past scouting reports, I'd be ready to write Wade Davis off as a bust. 看看正面的消息，Davis从七月底提高了三振数和其他相关数据。但即使是这个赛季最佳 的时期，也不过是个一般的投手(八月FIP 4.31)，K/BB在2附近挣扎。不是年轻王牌，甚至 现在已经没有太多潜力。如果不是参考过去在小联盟的表现和过去的球探报告，我会认为 Wade Davis养成是失败的。 So when teams look at the Rays, are they going to be excited about the possibility of getting Wade Davis? I don't think so. He has too many question marks hanging over his head right now, and he hasn't been a good enough pitcher to really garner much of a return. He has upside, especially in the National League, but I wouldn't bank on him bringing in a haul. 所以当其他队尝试与光芒进行交易时，还会对获得Wade Davis感到兴奋吗？我不这麽认 为。目前他被贴上太多质疑的标签，也没有好到足以获得可观的回报。还有进步空间，特 别是在国联，但我不指望能从他身上得到什麽。 At least, that's what I'm finding myself thinking more and more these days. Agree? Disagree? Have at it.' 最後，这是我最近在思考的问题，不论同不同意，都欢迎留下你的意见。 *One a side note, I'm still a proponent of thinking about moving Davis to the bullpen. His contract makes it a distinct possibility, as he won't make more than Kyle Farnsworth is currently until 2014 ($4.8 million). If the Rays think he has limited upside as a starter, why not try and turn him into a back-of-the-bullpen arm? Reallocate that pitching depth. 注：我提议考虑把Davis移往牛棚。'14年前，他的薪资不会超过Kyle Farnsworth(4.8M) ，让这个操作变得可行。如果光芒认为他在先发的位子不会再进步了，何不把他移往牛棚 呢？重新调配投手的深度。 --

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