今天的Prospect A to Z 要介绍农场防守最佳的捕手-Nevin Ashley，也顺便聊聊光芒 目前的捕手状况（也可参考E大之前翻译的"The Rays Catcher Conundrum"。） The Rays have - once again and like nearly every other club - some big decisions to make this offseason. They have to find at least a stopgap solution for shortstop (Nick Punto + Sean Rodriguez anyone?), they have to find at least one above average bat-first player for 1B and DH (internal options for more playing time: Brandon Guyer, Russ Canzler), they should solidify their bullpen by adding some talent to the mix (Mike Gonzalez, Michael Wuertz, Yoel Zumaya, Fernando Cabrera, Josh Kinney, ...) and they have to make a decision about their catching duo for '12 and beyond. 和其他球团一样，今年休赛期光芒也要做出许多重大的决定。 1.至少找一位可以临时扛下游击手的球员(Nick Punto + Sean Rodriguez)。 2.为1B和DH找位水准之上的打者(内部选项则有Brandon Guyer和Russ Canzler)。 3.强化牛棚(Mike Gonzalez、Michael Wuertz、Joel Zumaya……)。 最後，决定让谁在明年球季甚至是未来成为本垒板的守护神。 The Rays catchers combined for only 1.3 WAR (25th in the MLB) with a wOBA of .274 (26th) and an OPS of .611 (27th; all stats from FanGraphs). Versus righties (.573 OPS, .258 wOBA; 27th) they have even been worse. The Rays now more or less have two options (the 3rd option of a stopgap backstop won't do it as there is no sure-fire starting catching prospect in the system right now). They can bring in a catcher who is able of playing 70% of the games (e.g.: Yasmani Grandal, Chris Iannetta, ...) or they can go on with what they have in-house. I'm going to look at the 2nd option. Therefore I also included Kelly Shoppach despite him not having been offered arbitration this week. 光芒捕手的WAR总和为1.3(在所有球队中，排名25)；wOBA.274(26名)；OPS.611(27名)。 对右投手还更糟(.573 OPS，.258 wOBA；27名)。光芒现在有两个选择(在农场没有养出能 够接下先发捕手的人选前，似乎找不到第三选项)。 1.找来一位可以负担70%比赛的捕手(例如：Yasmani Grandal，Chris Iannetta……)。 2.勉强从球队中找寻可用之兵。 接下来会审视一下第二个选项，因此我也会把Kelly Shoppach纳入考虑，虽然本周还没 对他提出报价。 The stats in the following table are the '11 stats from fangraphs for Shoppach and Jaso and the major league equivalents (calculated with this tool) for Lobaton, Ashley, Vogt and Chirinos according to their '11 MiL numbers. The splits for these 4 players are from historical '10 data (from here) and they are not major league equivalents but the real MiL numbers from MiL-splits (the data set for '10 doesn't seem to be complement. I took it anyway in order to get a tendency). They are here in order to show the tendencies of the players. 下表呈现的数据是过去一年Jaso和Shoppach的大联盟成绩，还有Lobaton、Ashley、 Vogt和Chirinos小联盟成绩换算到大联盟的表现（http://ppt.cc/WgRb）。分项成绩则是 观察这四位球员'10年的成绩（http://ppt.cc/71AZ），但这部分没办法换算成大联盟的 成绩('10年的资料不太完整，但为了预测未来的发展，我还是将他整理出来了。)。 '11 STATS SPLITS(OPS) FIELDING Name B AVG/ OBP/ OPS vs.R/ vs.L CS'11(overall)% Fielding rep. J.Jaso L .224/.298/.651 .662/ .574 17(19)% bad K.Shoppach R .176/.268/.607 .431/ .788 41(28)% below avg. J.Lobaton S .257/.352/.763 .752/ .892 31(29)% above avg. R.Chirinos R .220/.290/.602 1.000/1.546 27(20)% below avg. N.Ashley R .225/.313/.633 .683/ .952 48(38)% above avg. S.Vogt L .249/.285/.684 1.013/1.116 20(34)% bad While the front office doesn't seem to be pleased by John Jaso's defense, the platoon splits tell me that he seems to be the only one of the six catchers who very, very likely will be on the Rays opening day roster in '12. He is the only left hander ready for the bigs (according to reports about Stephen Vogt's defensive abilities behind the plate). And even the switch hitter on the list seems to play better against lefties. Therefore, Jaso - barring a trade for or signing of an everyday catcher - seems to be a lock for the next years' roster. After that I could see any one of Shoppach, Lobaton and Chirinos on the roster. In my private roster projection for '12 I have the Rays trading for Yasmani Grandal (giving up Wade Davis+). In this scenario I'd start Grandal in AAA and begin the season with Jaso/Lobaton in the bigs. 虽然管理层似乎对John Jaso的防守不太满意，但表格呈现出来，他却是六位捕手中，最 有机会确定出现在'12年开幕战球员名单上的。也是唯一具有大联盟水准的左打者(根据 Vogt的在本垒板後的防守能力)，甚至连左右开弓的打者都对左投手打得比较好。因此除非 交易或是找来一位可以每天上场的捕手，Jaso已经占据了球员名册上的一个席次。在这之 後，应该会从Shoppach、Lobaton或Chirinos中选出一人。在我个人'12的球员预测中， Rays将会交易来Yasmani Grandal(付出Wade Davis+)。在这个情况下，Grandal一开始可以 在AAA每天先发，然後把Jaso/Lobaton摆在大联盟。 So, if Kelly Shoppach is out of the picture, the Rays will most likely go with John Jaso and one of Jose Lobaton/Robinson Chirinos in 2012. This would mean that one of Chirinos/Lobaton, Nevin Ashley and maybe also Stephen Vogt (mainly in the OF or at DH) would play behind the plate in Durham. Both, Jose Lobaton and Robinson Chirinos, are better against lefties and therefore they'd complement John Jaso very well. This scenario indicates John Jaso getting most of the plate appearances against righties and more than half of all plate appearances. 所以，如果Kelly Shoppach不在蓝图中，光芒明年很有可能在Jaso之外，从Lobaton和 Chirinos中选出一人。这也意味着落选的那位球员会和Ashley，甚至是Stephen Vogt(主 要是OF或DH)担任AAA本垒後方的角色。Jose Lobaton和Robinson Chirinos都较擅长对付 左投手，会是Jaso很好的补充。这个情况下，Jaso在对方派出右投时，会获得最多的出赛 时间，也许超过所有比赛的一半。 The front office, however, is not very enthusiastic about Jaso's defense, and, therefore, I think that they will bring Kelly Shoppach back (or another catcher from outside in). The reasons are that he first of all is good against lefties, that he is better defensively than Jaso and that he was a bit unlucky in '11 and looks to be better in '12. This would mean that Shoppach would play most of the games against lefties with John Jaso playing mostly against righties. Shoppach, however, should never ever see a right handed pitcher and therefore we have the same problem again. The '11 John Jaso is not good enough in order to play in 70% of the plate appearances and Kelly Shoppach shouldn't play against a rightie. In this scenario, however, there would be a logjam in AAA as all other four catchers have proven themselves in AA (or even in AAA already). 然而，管理层对Jaso的防守并不满意，因此我想会找回Shoppach(或其他人选。)。因为 他是对左投的表现最好，防守也比Jaso好很多，'11赛季看来有些不幸，'12应该会更好。 这意味着Shoppach会面对左投时，会得到较多机会；右投则交给Jaso负责。但Shoppach不 会面对任何一名右投手，如此又陷入了相同的问题…。今年Jaso打得不够好，而Shoppach 又不能面对右投。在这个情况下，其他四位已经在AA(甚至是AAA)证明自己的球员会陷入不 上不下的僵局。 Either way, if the Rays don't bring in an MLB ready catcher from outside, they have the same problem. They have four catchers who are ready right now for backup catching duty in the majors (Shoppach, Jaso, Lobaton, Chirinos) with another one having the bat for the majors (Vogt) and the other playing well above average defense (Nevin Ashley). Neither of them, however, seems to be able to play a starting catching role adequately. That's a logjam at a position with below average major league talent. 无论哪个方法，如果光芒没有从外面找来MLB ready的捕手，问题还是没有解决。有四位 可以担任大联盟後补的捕手(Shoppach、Jaso、 Lobaton和Chirinos)，一位打击已有大联 盟打击实力的Vogt，还有防守在水准之上的Nevin Ashley，但都不会是合格的先发捕手人 选。缺乏具备大联盟平均天分的球员，导致这个守位陷入僵局。 Therefore, - by individually looking at the catching situation and ignoring other roster moves - I hope for the Rays to trade for/sign a starting catcher. One of Jaso/Chirinos/Lobaton can play a solid backup and one of these three can be traded (in order for them to get a chance in another organization). Then Ashley, Vogt (often at DH and in the OF) and one of Jaso/Chirinos/Lobaton would man the '12 catching duties in Durham, providing very solid major league depth. If the traded for catcher needs more time in the minors (like in my scenario with Grandal who I think should play at least 1-2 months in AAA), I'd start the season with Jaso/Lobaton until this catcher is ready. What do you guys think? 把目光放在捕手问题，并忽略其他人员变动，希望光芒能够交易或签下一位先发捕手， 不论Jaso、Chirinos还是Lobaton，都能扮演很稳定的替补，而且任何一人都是可以被交易 的(这样他们在别的球队也可以有更好的发展。)。然後Ashley、Vogt和Jaso/Chirinos/ Lobaton其一会在明年担任AAA的接捕工作，并为大联盟提供深度。如果交易来的捕手需要 时间养成(例如前面提到的Grandal，我想他还需要1-2个月在AAA磨练)，在他准备好前，我 愿意先用Jaso/Lobaton的出赛。大家的看法呢？ --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.118.6.244 ※ 编辑: csy1911 来自: 111.240.218.40 (11/10 22:16)