作者csy1911 (招财猫)
看板Rays
标题[农场] Prospect A to Z Day 2: Blake Snell
时间Thu Oct 20 15:47:12 2011
Prospect A to Z 系列专题来到第二天,"B"的主角是今年签海中选进的左投新秀Blake
Snell,在新人联盟也有不错的表现,让我们来看看作者对他的评价吧!
I don't actually have a whole lot to say about Blake Snell. I picked him for
the letter B because I want to talk about high school pitching in general,
but let's start with Snell's season. He was one the Rays gazillion
supplemental picks, 52nd overall. The left-hander signed quickly and got into
11 games for the GCL Rays, pitching 26.1 innings.
其实我对Blake Snell无法做出太多评价。我选择他做为字母"B"的代表,是因为我想大
略聊聊高中投手,来看看Snell的新秀赛季吧!他是今年光芒众多补偿选秀中的一员,在
第一轮52顺位被选中,这位左投很快就被签下,并为GCL Rays投了26.1局。
26.1 innings in the lowest level of the minors hardly means much, but he did
strike out just under a batter per inning (26) and walked an acceptable 11.
He's tall and lean at 6-4/180 but there's some questions about his true
projectability because his frame doesn't look to allow for much more weight
to be added. Then again, his fastball is in the 88-92 mph range as is,
touching 94, so he's not hurting too badly there. As with almost all high
school pitcher, the development of his secondary stuff -- and his ability to
locate -- is key. He'll start the year in extended spring training and likely
pitch with Princeton in 2012.
在最低阶的联盟投上26.1局并无法意味什麽,但他几乎每局就能三振一位打者(26),
保送的次数也还能被接受(11),拥有6-4/180的身材,但他仍被预期存在一些问题,因
为他的肩宽太窄,使他看起来没有太多长肉的空间。话说回来,他的直球大约在88-92mph
之间,最高可达94mph,看来并不造成太多困扰。跟大多数高中投手一样,他成功的关键
在於第二球种的养成与把球控制在好的进垒点的能力。他明年球季将从延长春训开始,接
下来应该会加入Princeton。
The Rays, of course, had 12 of the first 89 picks in 2012. Snell was one of
just two high school pitchers in that group (the other was Taylor Guerrieri).
In fact, after Snell, the next high school pitcher selected was Jacob Faria
in the 10th round. This isn't really a new trend for the Rays. Here's the
list of high school pitching drafted (in the first 25 rounds) and signed
going back to 2008:
光芒在今年选秀会中,前89个选秀权里拥有12个。Snell在这12人中,是仅有的两位高中
投手之一(另一位是我们家的状元郎Taylor Guerrieri)。事实上,下一个被选中的高中
投手是第十轮的Jacob Faria。这不是光芒队新的选秀策略,下面我整理出一份从2008年以
来高中投手被选中且签约的名单(前25轮):
选秀年份:被选球员(选秀轮次)
2008: Kyle Lobstein (2); Shawn Smith (9);
Bradley Furdal (11); Jason McEachern (13); Trevor Shull (19)
2009: Kevin James (9); Andrew Bellatti (12); Jacob Partridge (18)
2010: Ian Kendall (5); Brandon Henderson (15); Matt Spann (25)
Now, just because you aren't drafting high school pitching highly doesn't
mean you won't get a star (see: Matt Moore, eighth round) but clearly the
Rays haven't placed a premium on it, especially in the last three years. The
ones taken in the top 10 rounds have especially disappointed: Lobstein never
re-gained his fastball, Shawn Smith has totaled 67 innings in three years due
to injuries and personal issues, and Kevin James has walked more than a
hitter per inning.
没在高顺位选中高中投手,并不意味着就不能养出一位明星球员(例如第八轮的Matt
Moore),但光芒明显不再倚赖高中投手,尤其是最近三年,Lobstein从未重新找回他的
快速球;Shawn Smith这三年因为伤病与个人因素只投了67局;Kevin James则是保送比
投球局数还多。
As a result, the pitching depth at the lower levels is lacking. McEachern,
Henderson, Spann, Bellatti, and Partridge are all somewhat intriguing, but
only Guerrieri is on the level that Wade Davis, Jake McGee, Jeremy
Hellickson, Matt Moore, and Nick Barnese (along with some flameouts like Matt
Walker) were at as short-season pitchers. Enny Romero and Felipe Rivero have
been nice international finds.
因此,低阶联盟的相当缺乏投手深度,McEachern、Henderson、Spann、Bellatti和
Partridge的实力不明,只有Guerrieri的在短期比赛的投球等级较接近Wade Davis、
Jake McGee、Jeremy Hellickson、Matt Moore和Nick Barnese(与一些突然遇到瓶颈的
投手,如:Matt Walker),Enny Romero和Felipe Rivero则是国际新秀中不错的收获。
My point? The pitching depth in the low levels is as weak as it's been for
at least a few years. The Rays haven't drafted high school pitching as much
and no lower-ceiling college picks have broken out (Merrill Kelly, Shane Dyer,
Devin Fuller) although they've recently gotten Jesse Hahn and Ryan Carpenter,
who don't fit that mold.
你问我的看法?至少最近这几年低阶联盟的投手深度是相当缺乏的。光芒不像过去选了
这麽多高中投手,天花板比较低的投手也没有破茧而出(Merrill Kelly、Shane Dyer、
Devin Fuller),仅管最近获得了Jesse Hahn和Ryan Carpenter,但他们仍未符合标准。
If the bats they'd been drafting instead had worked out, then maybe this
isn't an issue. But the organization is thin between the guys at the top (Tim
Beckham, Hak-Ju Lee, Brandon Guyer) and the players several years away (Drew
Vettleson et al from the 2010 draft). This means the team might need Snell
(or Spann or Henderson etc) to work out more than you might think.
如果过去几年选中的几位打者已有不错的表现,那可能就不是什麽大问题。但高阶农场
(Tim Beckham、Hak-Ju Lee、Brandon Guyer)和还需等待几年成长的球员(Drew
Vettleson等2010选秀球员)之间有很大的断层。这意味着球队需要Snell、Spann、
Henderson等球员有超乎预期的成长。
--
※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 140.118.6.244
1F:推 Edwardex :推~ 10/20 20:01
2F:推 srysry :Shawn Smith (9)被释出 其实农场有些断层.... 10/21 07:33
3F:→ srysry :农场希望能一批批的养成顺利.. 10/21 07:35
4F:推 Edwardex :我觉得投手还好 主要是2A以下的投手没有超级新秀... 10/21 13:23
5F:推 qazwsdf :投手超级新秀有今年的状元阿 Barnese Colome也是 10/21 13:33
6F:→ qazwsdf :只是没有投出变态的成绩...天份还是够的 10/21 13:33
7F:推 Edwardex :不好意思...更正 我是说A+以下 不过q大说的这两位 10/21 13:38
8F:→ Edwardex :我也很期待 他们两个明年就23岁了 再投不出来的话 10/21 13:39
9F:→ Edwardex :可能就有点危险了....希望他们也能break out 10/21 13:39
10F:推 srysry :回q大其实Colome也升到2a 相比下面农场投手新秀较少 10/21 15:06
11F:→ srysry :另外也是我们现在的投手新秀集中且强势在2A-3A ... 10/21 15:07
12F:→ srysry :还是要有点忧患意识 这篇倒是点出了这问题 10/21 15:07
13F:→ srysry :不过我相信TB农场的养成 希望在明年看到爆发 10/21 15:09
14F:推 srysry :另外C是Robinson Chirinos 10/21 15:11
15F:推 qazwsdf :因为一开始E大说2A以下阿XDD 低阶农场中最稳定就属 10/21 15:17
16F:→ qazwsdf :Jacob Thompson最稳定成长 不过表现不算太优 10/21 15:19
17F:→ qazwsdf :其实还有一些投手值得观察 但是低阶联盟的表现实在 10/21 15:20
18F:→ qazwsdf :不能太过相信 很多升上A+就被打爆了 10/21 15:21
19F:→ qazwsdf :虽然08年後我们家的状元表现不如预期 但我还是对 10/21 15:22
20F:→ qazwsdf :Taylor Guerrieri有信心!! 10/21 15:23
21F:推 Edwardex :还有今年刚升A+的C.J. Riefenhauser也值得期待~~ 10/21 16:23
22F:→ csy1911 :Thompson ERA不错 但其实仔细看问题很多 尤其是H/9 10/21 18:45
23F:推 qazwsdf :他的WHIP也很高...进阶数据来看他再升上去会被打爆 10/21 19:12