原文: http://ppt.cc/vOBW 这周的农场报报在三天前就出了 不过今天才忙到一个段落 忙里偷闲来稍微翻一下 各位可以点开图表看更完整的投手数据 图表:http://ppt.cc/,3TA Pitching prospects stats overview As we already are more than a month into the season we can read much more out of the data now than two weeks ago. Unfortunately, the overall numbers of the top 15 pitching prospects pre season still look ugly. They combine for an ERA of 5.19. They so far have pitched 10.5 runs BELOW AVERAGE. Even a fairly high BABIP of .323 can’t offset these numbers as their combined IP total is 213.1 innings. The FIP (4.35) is better, though, but still nowhere near what we expected. Looking at the individual pitching performances, especially some of the top starting pitching prospects struggle mightily. Nick Barnese (his BABIP suggests that he hasn’t even been unlucky), Enny Romero (last 3 starts: 8 IP, 17 H, 10 ER, 9 BB, 11 K) and Joe Cruz (11.14 ERA, 8.39 FIP, 13.7 H/9, 1.1:1 K/BB ratio) took substantial steps backwards thus far. At least the strikeout rates of Barnese and Romero are still where they should be. The top 15 pitching prospects combine for a K/9 rate of 10.3. So, they can get hitters to strike out. 到现在已经开季一个多月了，我们可以从资料中获得更多讯息了。可惜的是，我们农场 的前15投手新秀的数据总和仍旧是惨不忍睹。ERA: 5.19，就算是看BABIP也不能挽救这惨 烈的数据。FIP已经好很多(4.35)，但仍旧不是我们所期望的数值。转看个人表现，有些 新秀先发更是在死命的挣扎中。Nick Barnese，Enny Romero跟Joe Cruz这三人表现是退 步了。不过至少Barnese跟Romero的K比率还算正常。前15新秀投手的K/9率总和是10.3， 这表示至少他们能三振人。 3 prospects on the rise 1) Matt Moore … After a slow start to the season (like seemingly every year) he has been his old self lately. 23 K and just 10 H and 4 BB over his last two starts (16 IP) show that. Overall his (hopefully lasting) command (only 1.8 BB/9) and high strikeout rate (12.6 K/9) make him by far the best pitching prospect in the system and one of the best 5 overall. 2) Brandon Gomes … Another 6 exceptionally well pitched innings in Durham rightfully earned him a spot in the Rays bullpen. For a detailed breakdown of his numbers and repertoire check out this great post by Kevin. 3) Alex Colome … Not counting his first start of the season (1.2 IP, 5 H, 7 ER , 4 BB, 1 K) he has been fairly solid with an upward tendency. I hope this trend continues. His FIP and BABIP also suggest that he has been on the receiving end of some bad luck. 进步的三人 (1) Matt Moore: 在慢热的开季之後(好像每年都如此)，他最近总算回到他该有的水平了 。23K跟只有被10安跟4BB在他近两次先发中(16局)显示他在回稳了。整体来说他的控球 (1.8 BB/9)跟高三振率(12.6 K/9)让他成为到目前为止最好的投手新秀而且也是五大新秀 之一。 (2)Brandon Gomes:在3A 6局很棒投球中使他在大联盟的牛棚获得一席之地。更详尽的报导 请参考这个连结：http://ppt.cc/a@8F (3)Alex Colome:不看他第一次的先发的话，他是满稳定的在进步当中。期望它能持续， 他的FIP跟BABIP显示他正在经历一些衰运。 接下来我跳过了退步的三人，主要是这边有解释BABIP，我也想顺便解释一下FIP数据 The stat of the week: BABIP Other than the usually presented “prospect of the week” I’m taking a closer look at a stat which is not yet part of the common use. The Batting Average on Balls In Play, short BABIP, measures how many balls in play go for a hit. The BABIP of a pitcher measures how many balls in play go for hits against a pitcher while the BABIP for hitters measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits. By clicking at the links above you can check out Steve Slowinski’s excellent descriptions of the concepts of offensive and defensive BABIP. He also provides a BABIP calculator, some reference data and a video of the luck dragon explaining BABIP.Considering the concept for pitchers first, a high BABIP means that lots of the balls in play against a pitcher have gone for hits. So, a high BABIP is either caused by … ˙A bad defense behind a pitcher, ˙simply luck or ˙a pitcher who is generally hit harder (or/and with more line drives) than others. Batting Average on Balls In Play，简称BABIP，是来计算有多少球打出去会成为安打。 BABIP用在投手上是显示有多少球打出去会被打成安打，而用在打者上，则是测量有多少 球打出去会成为安打。 BABIP说明on Fangraph:http://ppt.cc/v6_V 点开就可看到一个完整的攻击与防守的BABIP说明。对投手而言，高BABIP说明了一个投手 被打出的球有很高的机率会成为安打。所以说高的BABIP可能造成原因有: a. 投手後面的烂守备 b. 就是幸运 c. 一个投手球比其他人还难被打的强劲。 A pitcher himself can only influence the 3rd criteria and thus, normally, high BABIPs for a pitcher suggest that a pitcher is better than his ERA and H/9 stats tell. The MLB average BABIP rate in 2010 was .302. Thus, looking at the data of the Rays pitching prospects, pitchers like Chris Rearick or Merrill Kelly seem to have been lucky thus far while e.g. Brandon Gomes (wow! Unlucky despite these strong numbers) or Chris Archer have been unlucky. As a result, I for instance am not as concerned about Chris Archer than others while on the other side thinking that Merrill Kelly simply is not as good of a pitcher as his ERA says. Reversing the concept, by looking at the BABIP for batters means, that a high BABIP now suggests that the specific batter has been lucky or faced by bad defenses. Some batters, however, historically have above average BABIPs. Mostly , these are line drive hitters (as line drives more often go for hits than groundballs) with lots of speed (as they can beat the defense to the base). But , as explained above, the batter can only influence one of three criteria’s of BABIP. 投手本身只能控制第三项条件，低BABIP投手说明他的ERA跟H/9的数据都不是真的。MLB 2010年的平均BABIP是.302。那来看看我们新秀小朋友们的数据，一些人像Chris Rearick 或Merrill Kelly看来是比Brandon Gomes(即使Gomes的其他数据超棒)或Chris Archer来的 好运。但总的来说，比上其他人，我对Chris Archer还比较没那麽担心，至少就ERA来说， Merrill Kelly看来不是个好投手。 反过来说，当把这数据放到打者身上来看呢，高BABIP显示打者可能正走好运，或者是他 碰到烂防守。但有些打者，他就是有高一点的BABIP。大部分他们都是强力打者(他们打 的球形成强劲飞球机率比滚地球还来得高)配上不错的球速(能对防守造成破坏)。不过就 如同上面所说的，打者也只会影响三个其中某一个的条件罢了。 （注:这一段说的应该是打者有高BABIP应该是属於强拉型打者，平飞配上球出去很快，不 过不管怎样，高BABIP也可能是因为运气使然，因为要嘛就是他刚好打到没人接的到的地方 ，不然就是他就刚好遇到烂防守。） So, the concept of BABIP is a very important one in order to assess a players’ performance. It relativizes stats like ERA and H/9 and it correlates with more advanced stats like FIP (fielding independent pitching … measuring a pitchers performance by assuming an average BABIP) . Normally, pitchers with a lower FIP than ERA have been unlucky and thus have a high BABIP. 所以说BABIP是一个非常重要的指标来评估球员的表现。他是跟其他数据相关连的如ERA跟 H/9，同时他也跟一个近一步的数据息息相关:FIP(Fielding independent pitching，用假 定的平均BABIP来评量一个投手的表现)。通常来说，投手有个比ERA还低的FIP是代表他正 在虽小所以会有高的BABIP（Gomes，Quate，Archer等人都显示这样）。 关於FIP(Fielding independent pitching)，在Fangraph也有说明 http://ppt.cc/D3Oz 我就不整篇打出来了，不过大致上是说，投手对於被打出去的球是不能控制的。所以关於 评估一个投手只要看下列几项：K,BB,HBP跟被HRs。 很显然的，全垒打对投手伤害最重，保送其次，最少的是K。FIP计算这些之後，给出一个 跟ERA很像的数据。这数据已经被证实是比ERA还要有用的数值，而且在数据棒球学中也会 成为一个重要的数值。 总的来说，看打者可能要看BABIP比较准，而看投手就看FIP，因为投手的BABIP影响因素 实在比打者来的少太多。（打者可能三个都有影响，投手只能影响一个 囧） 以上列出一些数据的说明 希望对大家有帮助。 -- Sir Winston Churchill:We shall never SURRENDER!!! --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 130.182.29.191 ※ 编辑: ckevint 来自: 130.182.29.191 (05/11 06:45) ※ 编辑: ckevint 来自: 24.205.20.104 (05/12 02:27)