作者knoxvillt (胖胖)
看板Rays
标题[农场] Fangraphs Rays Top 30 Prospects (上)
时间Thu Mar 31 15:49:35 2011
1. Jeremy Hellickson, RHP
Acquired: 2005 4th round (Iowa HS)
Pro Experience: 5 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: AAA/MLB
Opening Day Age: 24
Estimated Peak WAR: 6.0
Notes: Hellickson stands to be one of the most promising rookie pitchers in
the Majors in 2011. The 23-year-old hurler does have some hurdles to clear,
though. The Rays have a lot of pitching depth so he may end up as a long
reliever to begin the season — or he could open 2011 in Triple-A (although
he has nothing left to prove in the minors). Hellickson has the ceiling of a
No. 1 or 2 pitcher and he held his own in a brief MLB trial in '10. He showed
good strikeout numbers while also showcasing above-average control for his age.
I would like to see him improve upon his ground ball rate from triple-A (37%);
being a fly-ball pitcher in the potent AL East is never easy. He throws with
a three-quarter arm slot and utilizes an easy delivery that doesn't put much
stress on his shoulder, which bodes well for the future. Hellickson has a good
fastball-changeup combination, and improved command of his curveball could
transform him into a Rookie of the Year candidate if he receives the
opportunity to start.
Hellickson 作为众多大有可为的年轻投手之一在2011年站上MLB,现年23岁的他还是有
一些困难需要去解决,球队拥有相当深厚的投手强度所以他开季也许会作为一个长中继
投手出发 - 或者2011年球季在3A出发(虽然在minor没什麽需要证明其实力)。Hellickson
拥有成为1号或2号先发投手潜力以及去年在MLB短暂时间的先发。展现优秀三振能力和其
年龄有超过平均水准的控球,我想要看到其能改善在3A的滚地球率(37%);一个飞球投手
想在强而有力的美联东区想要生存绝不简单。四分之三投球姿势以及利用简单挥臂动作
不会对其肩膀产生压迫,对未来发展是好的预兆。Hellickson 是一位结合速球和变速球
来面对打者的投手,而且他有改善曲球掌控能力,假如获得先发机会应该能转换为竞争
新人王头衔的有利条件。
2. Matt Moore, LHP
Acquired: 2007 8th round (New Mexico HS)
Pro Experience: 4 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: A+
Opening Day Age: 21
Estimated Peak WAR: 5.5
Notes: Moore could easily be a No. 1 prospect in a lot of organizations. He
plays second fiddle in Tampa Bay's system, though, to Hellickson. The club
has been exceptionally patient with the young southpaw, moving him up one
level at a time during his four-year career. Moore has never seen his
strikeout rate drop below 12.75 K/9 in any of his four seasons, which is
absolutely outstanding for a starting pitcher. There is a trade off to his
K-rates, with his control and command fluctuating. He's been effectively
wild in the low minors but will face a stiffer test in double-A in 2011.
Moore has seen his inning totals steadily improve each season and he pitched
a career high 144.2 innings last season, while also maintaining a 2.38 FIP.
On the negative side, he's seen his ground ball rate decline as he has moved
up the ladder, from 61% to 48% to 43%. Despite that, he projects to develop
into a No. 1 or 2 starter. His repertoire includes a 90-95 mph fastball,
curveball, and changeup. His delivery mdoes have a little bit of effort to it.
虽然在光芒农场系统获得仅次於 Hellickson 的第2新秀评价,Moore 能在许多农场系统
很容易获得第1新秀的评价球团异常地对他有耐心,在整个生涯期间(4年)仅从新人联盟
拉上1A(包含高阶1A)。Moore 在4个球季里其K/9值从未看见掉到12.75以下,绝对是一位
先发投手的料。作为三振率高的代价,就是控球以及球种运用能力不太好(小联盟生涯
BB/9 4.4)。在minor低阶联盟能有效地发挥实力但在今年升上2A将面临更严厉的考验,
Moore 每季投球总局数都有增加而且上个球季投出生涯新高的144.2局,同时也保持FIP
2.38的成绩。相反地,滚地球率下降程度有如坐溜滑梯一般,从61%、48%降到43%。尽管
如此,预计能成长为1号或2号的先发投手。他的球种包括一颗90~95mph的快速球、曲球
和变速球,其全力的挥臂动作对手臂的负担较大。
3. Desmond Jennings, OF
Acquired: 2006 10th round (Mississippi JC)
Pro Experience: 5 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: AAA/MLB
Opening Day Age: 24
Estimated Peak WAR: 5.0
Notes: Like Hellickson and Moore, Jennings is another player that could be a
No. 1 prospect for a lot of clubs. The athletic outfielder has already played
parts of two seasons in triple-A but is expected to begin the 2011 season
back at that level after the club brought in veterans Johnny Damon and Manny
Ramirez late in the offseason. The outfielder posted the lowest wOBA of his
pro career at .355 but managed a triple-slash line of .278/.362/.393 in 399
at-bats. The speedster swiped 37 bags in 41 tries and has developed into an
effective base stealer. He also shows a respectable strikeout rate (16.8 K%)
given his modest power and is not afraid to take a walk (10.3 BB%). Despite
the obstacles ahead of him, Jennings should be starting in the Rays'outfield
by midseason and has the potential to be an impact player, albeit with no more
than 20-homer power. His current stance doesn't lend it self to much power
production at all but he does show solid balance.
如同 Hellickson 和 Moore ,对许多球团而言 Jennings 是另一位能给予第1新秀评价的
球员。这位行动敏捷的外野手已经在3A 两个球季中进行部分球赛由於球队在开季前找来
老将 Johnny Damon 和 Manny Ramirez 预计开季将回到3A。其缴出职业生涯wOBA 低点
(0.355)可是在3A共399个打数里缴出3围.278/.362/.393的成绩。这位拥有极快速度的打者
在41次尝试盗垒中成功37次而且能成长为一位强力的盗垒者。他还展示出令人赞扬的被
三振率(16.8 K%),上天给他不太突出的长打能力和被保送能力(10.3 BB%)。尽管这些阻碍
挡在其面前,Jennings 应该在季中上MLB防守外野并且有可能成为一位有影响力的球员,
虽然没有每季击出超过20支全垒打的长打能力。现在的击球姿势根本不适合产出更多长打
但表现出稳定且均衡的能力。
原文:
http://tinyurl.com/6fpy79d
这篇之前有人贴过,原文蛮长的可能会分成3~4篇。有错请指正,谢谢。
刚刚修文不小心把immortalqq版友推文修掉,抱歉...
感谢猫大纠正翻不好的地方,多谢其他人指正
--
※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 61.231.55.164
1F:推 catsondbs :推 Moore Trade off指的是虽然三振率高但也控球不好 03/31 16:05
※ 编辑: knoxvillt 来自: 61.231.55.164 (03/31 16:15)
2F:→ catsondbs :effort delivery是指他的姿势对他的手臂负荷较大 03/31 16:13
※ 编辑: knoxvillt 来自: 61.231.55.164 (03/31 16:17)
3F:推 ckevint :辛苦推 03/31 16:17
※ 编辑: knoxvillt 来自: 61.231.55.164 (03/31 16:20)
4F:推 meier0112 :Hellickson肩膀压力那边意思反了吧 03/31 16:23
5F:→ knoxvillt :这我就不知道了 原文写doesn't put 03/31 16:26
※ 编辑: knoxvillt 来自: 61.231.55.164 (03/31 16:32)
6F:推 ckevint :同意 原文念起来应该是说他的3/4姿势以及运用轻松的 03/31 16:31
7F:→ ckevint :出手方式 这并不会造成肩膀的伤害 对未来来说是好的 03/31 16:31
※ 编辑: knoxvillt 来自: 61.231.55.164 (03/31 16:40)
8F:推 immortalqq :辛苦再推一次XD 03/31 17:41
9F:推 Seele11 :用心推 03/31 19:36
※ 编辑: knoxvillt 来自: 61.231.55.164 (03/31 21:32)
10F:推 srysry :推大家的用心噜 03/31 21:55
11F:推 kiwitonylee :感谢用心分享! 03/31 21:56
※ 编辑: knoxvillt 来自: 61.231.55.164 (03/31 22:07)
12F:推 IVIVI :推!借这篇顺便讲一下 蛋强森今天又一个接球不乾净造 03/31 23:18
13F:→ IVIVI :成泥门被爆3分 最後还没计失误XD 我还是觉得蛋不适任 03/31 23:18
14F:→ IVIVI :一垒的位置 03/31 23:20
15F:→ catsondbs :只好用棒子补上守备吧 候补的Kotchman的打击太弱了 04/01 01:05
※ 编辑: knoxvillt 来自: 61.231.55.164 (04/01 13:35)
16F:推 ckevint :偷偷说一下 我刚看到别篇文章 有提到类似Moore那句 04/01 16:43
17F:→ ckevint :感觉像是说他控球还需要加强一些的感觉... 04/01 16:44
18F:→ ckevint :不知道k大跟猫大对这说法有什麽看法@@ 请指教谢谢 04/01 16:44
19F:→ catsondbs :Morre的确是要加强控球 他和Torres的BB/9都偏高 04/01 17:26
※ 编辑: knoxvillt 来自: 61.231.55.164 (04/01 21:24)