※ 引述《abc12812 ()》之铭言： 总翻译 大家比较容易看^^ 感谢catsondbs翻译 : Sunday, February 01, 2009 by Baseball Savant : The thing I remember most about the Rays before the 2008 season began was : listening to Buster Olney on ESPN Radio one morning talking about how he : could see the Rays winning the AL East. At the time I thought he was nuts. : Sure the Rays were shaping up to be a pretty good club, but I thought their : real breakout would be 2009 or 2010. 在08年球季之前我对光芒的最深的印象就是Buster Olney某天在ESPN上 讲说光芒会如何赢得08的美东冠军。 那时我觉得那只是个玩笑，当然我知道光芒是好的球队， 而且我觉得光芒真正爆发是在2009或者是2010年 : The Rays thought otherwise and proved Olney's premonition correct. The Rays : had a tremendous season in 2008. They won 97-games, the AL East and the AL en : route to the World Series where they fell to the Philadelphia Phillies in : 5-games. I thiny any discussion of the Rays is always going to center around : the supposed "blueprint" they've somehow showed that works against big market : teams. Unfortunately this theory has about as many holes in as can possibly : be tolerated. 光芒证明Olney的预测是对的，他们有猛兽般的08球季，总共赢了97场并拿下美东冠军、 美联冠军直指世界大赛，但是在世界大赛败给费城人队。讨论光芒的重点就在"蓝图" 而这点是跟大市场完全不同的。不幸的是这个理论有许多缺点，但可能可以被忍受。 : Let's think about it for a minute. They got Kazmir in a huge ripoff of the : Mets. They took Carlos Pena off the scrap heap. Turned a former #1 pick into : Matt Garza. Had a 16th round pick (James Shields) turn into gold. Signed : Iwamura from Japan, got JP Howell from Kansas City in the Joey Gathright : deal. Got Dan Wheeler for Ty Wiggington. Took Grant Balfour off the scrap : head and traded for Chad Bradord. Combine that with a TON of first round : draft picks that have worked out (Longoria, Upton, Garza, Crawford & Price) : and you have the Rays blueprint. 我们试着想一想。他们从梅子那里大抢劫来Kazmir、从土推里找来Carlos Pena、用第一 轮选手换来Matt Garza(杨大猛←→Garza)、把第16轮的J.Shields变成黄金、从日本签来 岩村、用新一代腿哥J.Gathright跟皇家换来JP Howell、用Wiggington换Wheeler、从土 推捡到Balfour和交易到潜水艇Braford。结合一堆第一轮(Longoria, Upton, Garza, Crawford and Price)，然後光芒得到他们的蓝图 : The problem is that this a blueprint that is almost unsustainable. Who bats : 1.000 with first round draft picks? Who takes Bryan Bullington over BJ Upton? : Who now is going to trade a Scott Kamir for Victor Zambrano? : At the same time you have to give credit where credit is due. Pulling guys : like Pena, Iwamura, and Balfour off of scrap heaps was amazing. Dealing Young : for Garza, Wiggington for Wheeler and Gathright for Howell were brilliant : moves in retrospect and let's not forget how big of a deal Eric Hinske was : for Tampa Bay early in 2008! The guy hit like a machine and really propelled : the Rays offense early on. The Rays also brought in Gabe Gross to play some : RF last season in a deal with Milwaukee. 问题在於这个蓝图几乎无法维持，谁可以百分百确定第一轮可以顺利养成? 谁会把Bryan Bullington选在BJ Upton前面?(海盗躺着也重枪...) 谁会用V.Zambrano来换S.Kamzir? 捡到Pena,Balfour和岩村是令人惊艳的，回想交易到Garza,Wheeler和Howell是聪明之举 但我们不能忘记恨司机在08年的表现，他打击就像个机器而且帮助光芒的防守 光芒也用G.Gross担任RF脚色 : By all accounts GM Andrew Friedman did a tremendous job assembling the 2008 : Tampa Bay Rays. This year he's pulled some more moves. The base of the team : is pretty much exactly the same but there are some subtle moves that could : pay big dividends for Tampa Bay in 2009. Signing Pat Burrell to play DH was a : fantastic move. Burrell becomes automatically the best DH Tampa has ever had. : He brings to the team tremendous plate discipline and the ability to hit : 30-35HR per year. Friedman dealt an extra arm in Edwin Jackson to the Tigers : for RF Matt Joyce. Joyce potentially has 30HR power and can play a : staggeringly good defense in RF. GM在08作了太棒的工作了，09他也做了一些补强动作而这些动作将会带给光芒很大的帮助 签下P.Burrell当DH，Burrell自动成为TB有史以来最好的DH，他拥有极佳的本垒板纪律 而且有能力每年敲出30-35HR。GM把E.Jackson交易到老虎得到M.Joyce，Joyce则有年产 30HR的潜力，而且在RF有良好的防守 : Friedman did a good job of getting his pitching staff fortified too. David : Price will now enter the rotation as a full time starter, taking over where : Edwin Jackson left off. Clearly Price has the talent to be a dominant #1 : starter in the major leagues and gaining an arm like that only can improve : the ballclub. In the pen, Friedman didn't rest on his laurels of already : having the best bullpen in the majors. He added guys like Joe Smith, Brian : Shouse and Lance Cormier to provide some depth to go along with dominant : pitchers such as Grant Balfour, JP Howell and Dan Wheeler. GM也加强的投手部分。Top 1新秀D.Price代替Jackson的工作终於加入轮值，很清楚的 Price有当ACE的天份。在牛棚 GM并没有因为去年是全MLB最佳牛棚而停下脚步，加入了 J.Smith, B.Shouse和L.Cormier来增加深度 : So that is sort of the blueprint Tampa is going under. It's really a great : blueprint and I think that is the real story of Tampa in 2008. They busted : out earlier than I expected, but as all Oakland A's fans know, the real test : comes with repeatability and let's not forget that Tampa didn't come home : with the prize. Last year was an insane year for Tampa. They went from worst : to first and got to the World Series, but now is when the grind for elite : status begins and if the Rays keep winning then they won't have #1 draft : picks to replenish their system. At some point if they keep payroll stagnant : they'll have to keep finding diamonds in the rough and making their draft : choices even more shrewdly because the obvious pick won't be there. They : drafted SS Tim Beckham last season with the #1 overall pick, but that might : be their last #1 pick for quite awhile. 所以这就是光芒蓝图的类型 光芒持续赢球 他们无法再拿到第一顺位的选秀来补充他们的农场，而且如果光芒的预算 不能扩大，他们只能在草堆里寻找钻石而且在选秀里更加精明 去年他们选T.Beckham为状元郎，但是这很可能是光芒一段时间内最後的第一顺位了 : Will this blueprint cash in on what was missed last season? Let's take a look. : 2009 RAYS STARTING LINEUP : C-Dioner Navarro: 295/349/407; 7HR, 27-2B, 54RBI, 12.6AB/BB, 0SB, 98OPS+ : It's odd to think Navarro is just going to be 25-years old because it seems : he's been around forever. Maybe that's me being a Yankees fan and knowing : about him since he's come up through the minor leagues, but still. If you can : believe from the above stat line, Navarro was actually an All-Star last : season. This had more to do with the fact that Posada & Martinez were hurt : and Varitek is just a shell of his former self, but for now, Navarro is not : only an All-Star catcher but also a championship caliber catcher if you : believe in that sort of thing when a team makes it to the World Series. Last : season Navarro's offense was carried by his .321 BABIP which drove his : batting average to almost .300. For his career to date his established BABIP : is only .292 so he was well over his previous production. The average is : going down meaning the ISO OBP% is going down too, but he did thump a few : more doubles last season so there might be a little more power to come. : Assuming Victor Martinez & Jorge Posada can't catch anymore, is it too much : to say that Navarro might be the 2nd best catcher in the AL behind Joe Mauer? : Matt Wieters isn't up yet and Saltalamacchia hasn't established himself in : Texas yet either. It's a helluva positional advantage to have. Navarro实际上有个All-Star season，当然有部份是因为Posada,V-Mart受伤， Varitek退化严重。但是Navarro现在不只是个All-Star更是个有冠军实力的捕手 接着说Navarro的进步..... 如果Posada, V-Mart不能再蹲捕 说Navarro是美连第二名的捕手会太超过吗? 超级新人M.Wieters还没上来 Salty在条子也还没展示他在MiLB的实力 : 1B-Carlos Pena: 347/377/494; 31HR, 24-2B, 102RBI, 5.1AB/BB, 1SB, 127OPS+ : First half OPS was .778. Second half OPS was .978! Pena got off to a brutal : start but salvaged a season by becoming a monster in the 2nd half. When you : take a look at Pena's season, there isn't much difference in 2008 as there : was in 2007 as far as the peripheral stats go except for one category: HR/F : ratio. In 2007 when Pena went bezerk at the plate, 30% of his fly balls went : out of the yard. In 2008, only 19% did. What is troubling for Pena is that : from 2004-2006, his HR/F% were 18%, 17% & 18% respectively. In 2007 it was : 30% but in 2008 it was back to 19%. So what number looks like the outlier? : Even in his monster 2nd half, Pena only had a 22% HR/F ratio so even then it : wasn't back up to 30%. Remember too that 2007 was Pena's age-29 season. For : the most part, Pena is probably a .260-.270 hitter with serious power who has : incredible plate discipline. He's also a helluva defensive 1B. You can : certainly make the argument he's the best defensive 1B in the AL outside of : Lyle Overbay. If Pena can avoid a 1st half mess again, then he's easily a : .250-40-110 hitter in the middle of a very good lineup. Pena在08年上半季不理想OPS只有.778 但是下半季却是.978!!! 接着说Pena飞球跟HR的比率 07年是夸张的30% 就算是08下半季那麽强也只有22% 所以Pena应该不可能回到那麽变态的07年成绩 而且Pena有极佳的本垒板纪律(选球)还有很不错的防守 能力应该只在Overbay之下 如果Pena开季不要那麽糟 应该会有 AVG.250 40HR 110RBI的成绩 : 2B-Akinori Iwamura: 274/349/380; 6HR, 30-2B, 48RBI, 9.0AB:BB, 8SB, 92OPS+ : I know I'm only remembering Iwamura's play against the White Sox and : conveniently forgetting his performance against Boston & Philadelphia, but : wow did it seem like this kid came to dominate during the playoffs! In : reality, Iwamura is just an OK player. Offensively he's below average : although he does have some doubles power and pretty good strikezone : judgement. On the other hand, his OPS+ of 92 puts him below average : offensively. He's solid defensively at 2B, but he isn't tremendous either. He : strikes out a ton and doesn't make the best of baserunning plays. It's sort : of hard to figure. On the one hand when you watch him play he seems like a : sparkplug. On the other, his stats say he's not all that good. What's : interesting is that there is some semblance of a skill set here but for : whatever reason there is no real consolidation of skills. He is a foreign : import and maybe he needs a couple of years to adjust? I like what I see when : I watch him play but when you take that out of the equation....well.....it's : not that good. 岩村只是个OK player 进攻上大约低於平均 他有制造一些2B的power还有良好的好球带 在2B的防守算流畅但非顶尖，三振太多 在跑垒上也没太好 看他上场觉得他似乎是个领导份子，从另一方面来看又没那麽好 总之没那麽好 so so player : 3B-Evan Longoria: 272/343/531; 27HR, 31-2B, 85RBI, 9.7AB:BB, 7SB, 125OPS+ : Longoria finished as the AL Rookie of the Year and actually finished 11th in : the MVP voting. He's just 22 by the way! Let's get the defense out of the way : first. He's great. He'll be a contender for a gold glove at the hot corner : for years to come. His RZR (revised zone rating) was the best in the AL for : 3B with at least 1,000 innings played. It was tied with Scott Rolen so you : know Longoria can pick it at 3B. Offensively, it sound ridiculous but there : is room for the guy to get better. He struckout a little too much meaning his : contact rate could get better and will as he gets more selective at the : plate. As odd as it seems, lefties ate him up besides him being a : right-handed hitter. He didn't hit all that great at home which is odd : because hitters are usually creatures of habit and routine so being at home : should make Longoria more comfortable in the future. Longoria also had a : fairly awful September which sort of played its way into the playoffs. He did : well in the ALDS & ALCS but he hit a woeful .050/.050/.050 in the World : Series! I don't see how he's not the 2nd best 3B in the AL behind A-Rod at : this point and he might be closing fast. If he makes some adjustments, : Longoria could go .300-40-120 and if the Rays win the AL East again, you're : looking at the next AL MVP. 龙哥拿到了08年的新人王而且在MVP票选在第11位 他还只有22岁!!!! 在防守上很棒 应该会是以後金手套的热门人选 他的RZR是全美联最佳(超过1000局守备) 进攻上它还有许多空间可以进步，三振太多表示他的contact还有进步空间 而且选球也会更好，但是左投对他仍是个大威胁，在自家球场打的比较不好更是奇怪(XD) [作者隐涵龙哥成绩↑↑↑ good!!!!] 九月打的很差(应该是受伤的原因) 而且在季後赛很不好 虽然ALDS ALCS OK 但是在WS 只有.050/.050/.050 Orz... 他是A-Rod之後得最佳3B 而且差距会越来越小 如果他有做些调整及进步 大概会有.300 40HR 120RBI !!!!! 而且如果光芒再次拿下美东冠军 别意外龙哥会是MVP : SS-Jason Bartlett: 286/329/361; 1HR, 25-2B, 37RBI, 20.6AB:BB, 20SB, 82OPS+ : Defense is the name of his guy's game. The 20 steals is nice but a guy needs : to steal at a 75% success rate to help a team. Bartlett was caught 6 times : last season so his steal rate was just 77% so he's even teetering on being : not useful there. In all honestly, I'm not entirely sure what Tampa Bay gets : from Bartlett that it couldn't get from Ben Zobrist at SS? Sure Reid Brignac : looks like a bust at this point, but Zobrist actually had a better RZR than : Bartlett at defense with a lot more pop in his bat. Zobrist is also a : switch-hitter who can hit righties, something Bartlett struggles mightily to : do. The more I look it at the more I wonder why Bartlett is playing? He can't : do much with the bat and while his defense is pretty good, he's not Ozzie : Smith either. 防守很棒 但是不懂为何TB不用B.Zobrist来当SS Zobrist的RZR比Bartlett还好 而且更有power 还是switch hitter [最後用Ozzie Smith酸了Bartlett] : LF-Carl Crawford: 273/319/400; 8HR, 12-2B, 57RBI, 14.8AB:BB, 25SB, 87OPS+ : From 2002-2007, Crawford saw an increase in his OPS+ in every single year! : That's pretty amazing, but last season finger & hamstring problems held him : up and his OPS+ dropped to a terrible 87. Because of his injuries, his power : and speed were decimated and we get the batting line that you see above. I'm : not really sure what to think about Crawford. Because of his speed, he's a : pretty exciting player and he plays a TERRIFIC defensive LF. On the other : hand, you don't need great defense to play LF and that positon is usually : reserved for guys who hit a ton. Because of BJ Upton in CF, the Rays can get : away with having Crawford in LF, but he does have a pretty good skill set. : For the most part he's a 4-tool player with all the tools except power, but : then again because of his doubles and triples potential, he can slug in the : high-.400s. I'm kind of on the fence with Crawford because he seems more like : a fantasy player, but I'm warming up to him. He'll only be 27-years old so : he's just now hitting his prime years! That could get scary. 从02-07 Crawford的OPS+每年进步 但是今年只有87.... 去年手指跟大腿伤势困恼着他 不用多说Crawford他进攻上利用速度 而且LF防守超好 但是不可能把它移防CF 因为CF是BJ Upton 他是个4 tools打者(缺少power) 但是因为速度可以制造许多2B和3B 让他的SLG可以到.400 他才27岁 而且持续进步 : CF-B.J. Upton: 273/383/401; 9HR, 37-2B, 67RBI, 5.5AB:BB, 44SB, 107OPS+ : Shoulder injury was the reason Upton hit 24HR in 2007 but followed up with : just 9 in 2008. The problem is that he had surgery in November and now it : looks like he won't be playing on opening day for Tampa. Upton is just going : to be 24-years old and I really can't imagine what the Pirates think seeing : him blossom the way he has in Tampa Bay while Bryan Bullington sucks. Still, : 2009 might be a wash for Upton. If the shoulder stuff lingers then his power : might not be 100% once again in 2009 although in the 2008 post-season it : didn't seem to be hampered. Upton plays a good defensive CF and has plate : discipline to spare. He strikesout a TON although that did improve from 2007 : to 2008. Upton has all the skills to breakout and I don't think seeing him : with multiple 40-40 seasons is completley out of the question. If it wasn't : for the shoulder, he might be playing for the title as best player in the : game given his position, but it might have to wait a year before we see Upton : finally put it all together. 肩膀问题让Upton 08年只敲出9HR 现在已经动完手术 我还是不懂为什麽Upton已经在TB开花结果而02年状元郎Bryan Bullington still sucks [海盗真的很可怜 一直被鞭 明明作者前面就讲到不是每个状元签都养的出来...] 最算肩膀开好刀Upton在09年还是不会恢复所有的power 防守极佳 虽然三振超级多但是仍有再进步 Upton有能力breakout[07年很强了还不算breakout....作者...]40-40对他不会是个问题 如果不是肩膀问题他早就是CF这个位子上的最佳球员 等待Upton的breakout : RF-Matt Joyce: 252/339/492; 12HR, 16-2B, 33RBI, 7.8AB:BB, 0SB, 116OPS+ : The Rays thought they didn't have a regular RF in Gabe Gross so used an extra : part, Edwin Jackson, to use as trade bait with the Tigers to land minor : league prospect Matt Joyce. Last season was Joyce's first taste of major : league pitching and he aquitted himself very nicely. The Rays are hoping : Joyce can be a lefty power bat. Known to have gap-to-gap power in the minor : leagues, Joyce really stepped up his game and provided power in Comerica : where power pretty much goes to die. Trading in Comerica for the Trop and : getting regular playing time could mean possibly 30HR for Joyce in a Rays : uniform. He's an outstanding defensive player giving the Rays the best : outfield defense in the major leagues potentially. Just 24-years of age : heading in 2009, Joyce has a couple of years of consolidation before he : enters his prime sesaons. By all accounts this was an incredible move on the : part of GM Andrew Friedman. 光芒不认为Gross会是RF的答案 所以交易来Joyce 希望Joyce可以带来左打的power 因为Comerica Park容易吃掉power 所以预计Joyce可以在Trop打出30HR的实力 他才24岁 : DH-Pat Burrell: 250/367/507; 33HR, 33-2B, 86RBI, 5.3AB:BB, 0SB, 125OPS+ : Burrell's last 4 years of OPS+ have been 128, 122, 127 & 125. That's : consistency so you know what you are going to get from Burrell if you are a : Rays fan. Essentially the Rays are going to get 30HR, 100RBI, and an OPS+ of : 125. That makes Burrell the best DH the Rays have had in their history and : he's only been the DH for about 5-minutes. It actually works for Burrell too : because he may be the worst LF in baseball defensively. In a reversal of "If : You Can't Beat Them, Join Them", Burrell actually beat Tampa in the 2008 : World Series and now finds himself playing for them. I'm a huge fan of : exploiting the DH position because it's a market inefficiency that only : relies on a player's ability to hit without having to take his defense into : consideration. The Rays are doing just that with Burrell. Having him, Pena, : Longoria, Upton & Joyce in the lineup give Tampa 5 players with the potential : to hit 30HR each. The Rays ranked 4th last season in HR hit but with this : kind of arsenal, they may get even better! Burrell最近四年的OPS+是128, 122, 127和125 Burrell太适合打DH了 因为它几乎是防守上最烂的LF "如果不能打败他就加入他"正是光芒09年的写照←签下Burrell 加上Burrell TB将有五个球员有机会打30HR(Pena Longoria Upton Joyce) : 2009 RAYS BENCH : C-Shawn Riggans: 222/287/407; 6HR, 7-2B, 24RBI, 11.3AB:BB, 0SB, 80OPS+ : IF-Willy Aybar; 253/327/410; 10HR, 17-2B, 33RBI, 10.1AB:BB, 2SB, 92OPS+ : IF-Ben Zobrist: 253/339/505; 12HR, 10-2B, 30RBI, 7.9AB:BB, 3SB, 118OPS+ : OF-Gabe Kapler: 301/340/498; 8HR, 17-2B, 38RBI, 17.6AB:BB, 3SB, 117OPS+ : OF-Gabe Gross: 238/336/414; 13HR, 16-2B, 40RBI, 6.9AB:BB, 4SB, 96OPS+ : OF-Justin Riggiano: 197/247/329; 2HR, 4-2B, 7RBI, 19.0AB:BB, 2SB, 50OPS+ : Ruggiano is the one out of the group that most likely won't be a part of the : team when camp breaks. I like this bench to be honest. Aybar is a pretty good : utility infielder and I already think Zobrist should be the starting SS for : this team. The Rays did a pretty good job of going out and getting OF Gabe : Kapler to shore up the bench a bit. If BJ Upton isn't going to start the : season on time, the Rays could use Kapler in CF or slide Crawford over to CF : and slot Kapler in LF. Lefties tear Gross up, but he can hit righties really : well so he can be a pretty good platoon outfielder and pinch hitter off the : bench for the Rays. What's interesting about this bench too is the amount of : plate discipline it has. Except for Kapler, everyone who is likely to make : the bench for Tampa can draw a walk effectively. Heck, two players had OPS+ : numbers closing in on 12o (Zobrist & Kapler). Obviously you don't want to see : your starting players go down but Tampa Bay could probably weather a minor : injury or two. I'd like to see Zobrist get a chance. 在板凳方面，Ruggiano大概春训时不会在名单之中。 老实说我对光芒的替补方面很满意，Aybar是个很好的内野工具人，而Zobrist明年应该取 代Bartlett先发。 今年签下Gabe Kapler是不错的动作，假如Upton因伤不能赶上开季，还能够有人补上CF ( 让Kapler→ CF或Crawford→ CF Kapler→ LF) Gross虽然完全对付不了左投(2008 .191/.247/.338)，但他对右投的良好表现让他足够 在外野轮值和代打要员占一席位（.249/.356/.433） 光芒的板凳最棒的是他们的plate discipline。除了Kapler外几乎每一个人都有选球眼 可以选到BB；而且其中有两人(Zobrist & Kapler)的OPS+接近120，相对其他队伍会为 伤兵而烦恼，闪光有足够能力去承受一些小伤小痛。 : OVERALL IMPRESSION OF THE TAMPA BAY OFFENSE? : There is so much potential in this lineup. With Longoria, Pena, Joyce, Upton, : Crawford and Burrell, there is a muderers row of players! What is somewhat : interesting about the Rays is there 1-2 punch at the top of the order. If you : think the guys I just mentioned are more middle of the order guys, then you : are left with Navarro, Iwamura, and Bartlett as your 1-2-9 hitters. Having : Bartlett at #9 is a no-brainer, but who leads off for this team? I think : Crawford is more of a #6-#7 hitter and if you put Iwamura at #2 then where : does that leave the #1 place in the order? 毫无疑问 有龙哥 + Pena + Joyce + Upton + Crawford + Burrell简直是杀人打线 在棒次的安排上，如果你同意上面提的几个都是中心棒次，那就剩下Narvarro、 Aki和Bartlett要放到1、2、9棒了。无可置疑Bartlett会被放到第9棒，剩下的两个， 首先我认为Crawford比较适合6 7棒，那麽假如放Aki作第二棒，那麽第一棒的人选 除了＂他＂还有别人吗? : Last year Iwamura & Crawford went 1-2 in the lineup, but I don't know. I : don't mind Iwamura hitting 2nd but if there is anything missing with the Rays : it's a leadoff hitter really. This is certainly nitpicking and a lot of : people will tell you that lineup construction doesn't mean a whole lot, but : there is something here that doesn't make for a 100% optimal lineup in Tampa. : While the Yankees have Damon-Jeter and the Red Sox have Pedroia-Youkilis, the : Rays have Iwamura-Crawford and they could be better served other places in : the lineup in my opinon. Would hitting Upton leadoff be such a horrible idea? 昨年是Aki&Crawford做#1 & #2棒，我并不介意把Aki排第二，不过光芒真正需要的是个 leadoff hitter。有些人或许会反驳说棒次的影响没很大，不过当洋基有大门-Peter、 Sox有Pedroia-Youkilis，而光芒是Aki-Crawford....我觉得比起把他们放一二棒还有 更适合的地方，那才是对打线最好的安排。 老实说，让Upton打第一棒难道是这麽糟糕的提议吗？ : My guess is that Tampa goes: : Iwamura-Crawford-Upton-Pena-Longoria-Burrell-Joyce-Navarro-Bartlett which is : a very formidable lineup. I don't think we'll look back on 2009 if Tampa win : and blame the offense. It's primed and ready to go! 我猜明年打线会是 Aki-Crawford-Upton-Pena-Longoria-Burrell-Joyce-Navarro-Bartlett 这个将会是相当有实力的打线，能够很有信心地给你保证，在2009年攻击将不会是个问题 : 2009 RAYS STARTING ROTATION : #1-Scott Kazmir: 152.3IP, 7.3H/9, 9.8K/9, 2.4K:BB, 4.1BB/9, 1.4HR/9, : 1.267WHIP, 127ERA+ : A lefty with 92-mph gas who is just filthy. Kazmir has evolved into a 2-pitch : pitcher, working off his fastball and changeup with the occasional slide : piece thrown in to keep hitters honest. What is pretty amazing is how many : pitchers can walk 4+ per game and give up 1+ HR per game and still manage an : ERA+ of 127!? Kamzir is a legitimate ace with the skill set to contend for : the title of best pitcher in the game. Even though he did make it over 200IP : in 2007, elbow problems at the beginning of the year derailed his season : totals for 2008. It's interesting to note that Kazmir is going to be 25-years : old in 2009 while David Price will be 23. That's only 2-years difference yet : Kazmir has pitched 5 seasons already. Even with Price on the team, Kazmir has : by far and away the best stuff on the roster. The big problem is that he : simply can't cut down his pitches. If Kazmir could half his walk rate he'd be : almost superhuman on the mound. He's still so young so he could have a couple : of consolidation years left in him, but at some point you wonder when he's : going to put it all together. 能投到有92mph的左投绝对是犯规。Kaz的直球和Changeup和偶尔一用的滑球对打者而言 都是杀人的武器。更令人惊讶的是他虽然BB/9 = 4.1和HR/9 >1却仍然投出127ERA+的好 成绩，称他为当今最好的投手之一绝对是当之无愧。和23岁新上场的Price比较， 25岁的Kaz已经在大联盟投了5个seasons了，即使Price加入光芒的轮值，Kaz的stuff始於 是很明显地较为突出。 要注意的是，虽然曾经在07年投了200+IP ，他的伤患在08年对他影响甚大，他最大的问题 还是压不下用球数，如果能将BB/9压到2以下他就是完美的超人了（按:这不是废话吗 = =) 他是还年轻还有时间让他成长，不过你会不禁疑惑要到甚麽时候他才能长成完全体 : #2-James Shields: 215IP, 8.7H/9, 6.7K/9, 4.0K:BB, 1.7BB/9, 1.0HR/9, : 1.153WHIP, 125ERA+ : Shields put up almost a carbon copy of his 2007 season in 2008. You can't : really say Shields is a one-year wonder now that he's got two years under his : belt. Shields isn't overaly dominant. His average fastball is 90.4mph, but he : has a 4-pitch arsenal that he pulls the string on almost anytime he wants to. : He works mostly off a fastball, cutter, changeup trio but he'll show a : curveball every now and again. His control is pinpoint but he also has : stellar command to go along with it. He's thrown 215IP the last couple of : seasons and given this stuff/command, you'd have to at least put him into the : discussion as a #2 starter. Last season he started 33 games and threw 3,123 : pitches. That's 94-95 pitches per game or 14.5/IP. If he averaged 6.5IP/GS : then he could get at least 1-more inning's worth of work pushing his average : pitches/G up to 109-110. That's an extra 33IP on top of his 215 making it : 248IP per year for him. Could he handle that? I don't know but at some point : you take the reins off a pitcher who has established a workload the way : Shields has the last two seasons. If he pitches close to 250IP with 7K/9 and : 1.7BB/9 then you are looking at a borderline #1 starter. Shields在08年复制了他在07年的好成绩，足以证明他不是个fluke。虽然还没有 宰制联盟，他的4种球种和平均90.4mpb的直球使他所向披糜，而且还有很好的Control (投进好球带的能力)和有漂亮的command(想丢到的位置) 以他的stuff/command 和过去两季都贡献了215IP，身为球队的#2 Starter他相当称职 去年他先发了33场，总共投了３,123球，平均每场是94 95球（14.5/IP) 假使他能将Pitch per game拉到109-110，就能每年多吃33IP，一年248IP会否吃不消呢? 考虑到他过去两季的工作量似乎也不是不可能。如果能吃250IP又能维持现在的BB/9 和K/9，那就是个#1 Starter的表现了 : #3-Matt Garza: 184.7IP, 8.3H/9, 6.2K/9, 2.2K:BB, 2.9BB/9, 0.9HR/9, 1.240WHIP, : 118ERA+ : Solid debut for Garza in his first time role of regular major league starter. : I don't care what Twins Nation says, they got hosed on the Matt Garza for : Delmon Young deal. Plain and simple. I've read reports where Garza made : adjustments in 2008 that favored a little more control rather than striking : people out so if you are wondering why that K/9 isn't as high as his minor : league numbers would indicate, there is your answer. Garza did make some : adjustments back to strikeouts though. In his first 8 starts of 2008, Garza : fanned only 3.9 hitters per 9IP. In his last 22 starts, he upped that rate to : 7.0/9IP! He had a nerve problem that forced him to miss 3 starts, but you : can't really argue with the numbers here. If his last 22 starts are any guide : and if he keeps getting better with a more consistent feel for his pitches, : why couldn't he push that K/9 up to 7.5-7.8? This guy looks all the way solid : to me! Garza大联盟的首季先发很棒，不管Twins怎麽说这次交易绝对是我们得利了。有报导说 Garza今年"降K求控球"，所以三振/9没小联盟时这麽高还可以接受。不过他也有一直在 调整，在季初8次先发他的K/9只有3.9，而在之後的22场则跃升至7.0!　他的手腕问题令 他错过了3场先发，不过并不影响这所有的数据都证明他是个好投手。 依他的後22场的成绩预测，明年很可能可以把K/9升到7.5-7.8。总之他是个很棒的先发! : #4-Andy Sonnanstine: 193.3IP, 9.9H/9, 5.8K/9, 3.4K:BB, 1.7BB/9, 1.0HR/9, : 1.288WHIP, 102ERA+ : Sonnanstine is actually a pretty sweet pitcher when you look at his skill : set. He's got great command and doesn't give up many bombs, but he doesn't : strike a ton of hitters out so the upside is limited. That H/9IP would look : better but his BABIP was .312 which was above league average. The big problem : is that Sonnanstine is relying completely on his guile. His average fastball : sat at 87mph last season, which coming from a righty is well below average. : He throws up to 5 pitches for strikes, but I don't know. A few more : strikeouts, a few more groundballs and who know what can happen? With Price : in the mix, Sonnanstine is nothing more than a #4-#5 starter, but when you : can get 200IP out of guy that is going to keep you in games because he : doesn't walk anyone then that's a great asset to have in your rotation. : Sonnanstine will only be 26-years old this season so there is certainly time. 老实说Andy不是个很好的投手，控球不错 HR/9也还好，不过低三振率表示他的高点也 不会很高。明年H/9会稍微改善但那是因为有点过高的Babip，问题在於他是个软投派的 投手，平均速度只有87mph的直球远远低於联盟，所以能倚靠的仅仅只有巧妙的配球。 好坏球比也不漂亮…好吧，如果能多投点三振，多一点滚地球或许能吓你一跳也不一定。 有Price在轮值，Andy充其量是个4、5号先发，不过队上有个四坏率低又能吃200IP的 先发也不坏。今季他只有26岁，ya He still has time. : #5-David Price: 14IP, 5.8H/9, 7.7K/9, 3.0K:BB, 2.6BB/9, 0.6HR/9, 0.929WHIP, : 230ERA+ : Here comes the ringer! Before we get ga-ga over those numbers, remember that : Price's BABIP in those 14IP was a ridiculous .225. Price works off a : fastball-slider-changeup arsenal although he barely used his change in the : majors last season. He pumps his fastball at 94-95mph as a lefty and in : reality it might only be a matter of time before he is the #1 starter, : relegating Scott Kazmir to #2 status. It's a good problem to have if you are : Tampa Bay. There really isn't a knock on Price at this point. He's a good kid : from Vanderbilt with tremendous makeup. He blew through the SEC and he blew : through the minor leagues on his way to Tampa Bay. He's a 6-6 lefty who : throws in the mid-90s with great control of all his pitches. Price even : pitched in the ALCS and World Series where he did a great job. He had a rough : spot in Game 2 of the World Series but the Rays were up 4-0 in that game and : the 2 runs Price gave up were inconsequential. In postseason play he allowed : just 2 hits and struckout 8 batters in 5.7IP! The only real knock for this : guy is going to be his durability and health. He only threw about 130IP last : season and 110 of those were in the minor leagues. Expecting 30+ starts from : him and 180-200IP might be too much too soon for the guy. 数据很不错，不过既是小样本(14IP)又是超低的babip(.225)，所以看看就好。他投三 种球种: fastball-slider-changeup，但control不好的changeup在mlb几乎没用到。 左 投有94-95mph的fastball（按:先发时是90-94）代表假如时日注定会把Kaz挤到#2的位置 ，但对真正的光芒迷来说将是快乐的烦恼。 身高6-6左投加上精准的mid-90s fastball，这个Vanderbilt来的天才小子没甚麽真正的 问题，在大学、小联盟甚至WS都有不错的表现。唯一缺点是他的健康和耐力都需要注意 : 去年包括在小联盟投的110IP总共只投了130IP(按:他07年没赶上球季，所以在职棒就只有 这一年 )，假如今年就期望看到他30+先发和180-200IP也许是太过梦想了。 : SP-Jason Hammel: 78.3IP, 9.5H/9, 5.1K/9, 1.3K:BB, 4.0BB/9, 1.3HR/9, : 1.506WHIP, 97ERA+ : SP-Jeff Niemann: 16IP, 10.1H/9, 7.9K/9, 1.8K:BB, 4.5BB/9, 1.7HR/9, 1.625WHIP, : 88ERA+ : OVERALL IMPRESSION OF THE RAYS ROTATION? : It's simply another dominating starting rotation in the AL East. The one : thing that bothers me just a bit is that the Rays really don't have a #1 : starter. Kazmir is certainly a #1 starter in "stuff", but his durability is : always going to be a factor it seems. If he can go 200+IP then this argument : becomes a non-issue but if there is a knock on this rotation, it's that they : don't have a real stopper at the top. They have some candidates in Kazmir, : Price and even Garza; all have the goods to be a #1, but I think Garza & : Price are still a bit too young and Kazmir dealt with injury problems yet : again. 就很棒的先发轮值~ 唯一缺憾是缺少了一个真正的#1 starter,　Kaz有#1的stuff但缺少 #1 的吃局数能力。除非Kaz今年能吃200+IP证明并不是那回事，否则光芒少了一张王牌始 终是事实。Kaz、Price甚至Garza都有能力做#1，但可惜前一个有伤而後两个又有点太年 轻了。 : Best case is that this rotation dominates because it simply has too much : talent not too. Worst case is that Kazmir has injury issues and Price goes : about 120IP. That would be tough because you'd have a lot of the : responsibilities thrust upon Shields, Sonnanstine and Garza with a couple of : fill ins. I'm not sure Hammel & Niemann are going to be great and Wade Davis : and Jake McGee probably aren't ready just yet. 明年的Best case是先发们实实在在地宰制美东；而worst case是Kaz受伤痛影响而Price 只吃了大约120IP，那样的话会为剩下的Shields、Andy、Garza和替补带来很大的压力。 後备的Hammel和Niemann会投成怎样还不确定，而 Wade Davis和Jake McGee看起来则是还 未准备好。 : Another factor to consider is : how much better the rest of the AL East got in relation to Tampa Bay. The : Yankees got CC Sabathia & AJ Burnett and also get a healthy Chien-Ming Wang : back in 2009 with Joba Chamberlain at least starting the season healthy. : Those are 4 starters the Rays didn't have to compete with last season. The : Red Sox signed Brad Penny & John Smoltz while also having Clay Buchholz & : Michael Bowden waiting to make an impact. Those are 4 pitchers Tampa didn't : face last season either. : Don't get me wrong. This is a great rotation to have, but there are some : questions marks that should possibly be concerning for the Rays down the : road. If this was any other division in baseball, it wouldn't really matter, : but because Tampa plays in the same division as the Yankees & Red Sox, it : changes things dramatically when trying to stay and keep being competitive. 另一个因素的是美东其他劲旅，洋基季後签下的CC & AJ Burnett 还有健康的Wang + Joba，红袜方面的Penny & Smoltz加上八扣子和Michael Bowden， 全部是都是小鱼昨年没有对上的投手。光芒的轮值的确是很好，和其他分区比较也是 首屈一指，可是当身在美东军火库， 即使一点点小问题都可能会造成很大影响。 : 2009 RAYS BULLPEN : CL-Troy Percival: 45.7IP, 5.7H/9, 7.5K/9, 1.4K:BB, 5.3BB/9, 1.8HR/9, : 1.226WHIP, 98ERA+ : RP-Dan Wheeler: 66.3IP, 6.0H/9, 7.2K/9, 2.4K:BB, 3.0BB/9, 1.4HR/9, 0.995WHIP, : 142ERA+ : LP-J.P. Howell: 89.3IP, 6.2H/9, 9.3K/9, 2.4K:BB, 3.9BB/9, 0.6HR/9, 1.131WHIP, : 200ERA+ : RP-Grant Balfour: 58.3IP, 4.3H/9, 12.7K/9, 3.4K:BB, 3.7BB/9, 0.5HR/9, : 0.891WHIP, 288ERA+ : RP-Chad Bradford: 59.3IP, 9.0H/9, 2.6K/9, 1.1K:BB, 2.3BB/9, 0.5HR/9, : 1.247WHIP, 212ERA+ : RP-Joe Nelson: 54IP, 7.0H/9, 10.0K/9, 2.7K:BB, 3.7BB/9, 0.8HR/9, 1.185WHIP, : 213ERA+ : RP-Juan Salas: 6.3IP, 7.1H/9, 11.4K/9, 2.0K:BB, 5.7BB/9, 0.0HR/9, 1.421WHIP, : 63ERA+ : RP-Lance Cormier: 71.7IP, 9.8H/9, 5.8K/9, 1.4K:BB, 4.3BB/9, 0.5HR/9, : 1.563WHIP, 113ERA+ : LP-Brian Shouse: 51.3IP, 8.1H/9, 5.8K/9, 2.4K:BB, 2.5BB/9, 0.9HR/9, : 1.169WHIP, 153ERA+ : According to The Hardball Times's WPA (Wins Probability Added), the Rays had : the best bullpen in the majors last season. They bring back the same pen : although they've added guys like Joe Nelson, Lance Cormier and Brian Shouse : to the mix. All are good pick-ups but it creates a log jam in the pen. The : closer, Troy Percival, is the worst reliever on the team! How can a guy who : gives up 2 bombs per 9IP and walks 5 per 9IP hold down a closer's job? It : would seem putting in Percival is pouring gas on an already raging fire! 根据TBT的WPA，去年小鱼有着全联盟最好的牛棚。新一季除了去年的原班人马外，还签下 了Joe Nelson、Lance Cormier、Brian Shouse，令本来已经一流的牛棚更爆炸了 (按:能 用的已经有13人了)。本来的Closer Troy Percival看成绩反而是最糟糕的後援　囧 找一个每9局5BB 2HR的投手顶closer似乎不是很明智的决定。 : When you think about the pen, you know that Howell, Bradford, Balfour, : Wheeler and Nelson are automatic. That leaves only 2 spots. One is going to : Percival when he's healthy because he's the closer leaving only one which I'm : guessing goes to Shouse because he's left handed and JP Howell owns both : righties and lefties. That leaves both Salas and Cormier out in the cold but : it also doesn't allow room for a guy like Jason Hammel or Jeff Niemann to be : a long man out of the pen in preparation for spot starts when the Rays will : need them. 在开季的25人名单， 没人质疑Howell, Bradford, Balfour, Wheeler, Nelson 5人将会是我们主力的RP群， Closer Percy有机会留下，牛棚最後一个位子可能会给左投Shouse; 这代表没进的人有 Salas、Cormier，也没有机会让能替补先发的Hammel和Niemann准备。 (按: 两位替补先发都out of options了，能过waivers的机会看起来不大) : Even so this is a NASTY pen. Howell & Balfour and downright FILTHY. Wheeler & : Nelson are very solid if not as brutal on opposing hitters as Balfour & : Howell. That leaves Chad Bradford who is effective in his own right along : with LOOGY Brian Shouse. The closer's spot is Percival's but in all reality : the big guy is going to be on the DL a bit so the closer's role probably : falls to Dan Wheeler in that instance. Wheeler had 13 saves last season in : Percival's absence. 尽管如此这仍然是一个超强力的牛棚。有超强力的Howell 和 Balfour，还有相当有实力 的Wheeler和Nelson，一人左Shouse和潜水艇Bradford，Closer暂时仍然是容易受伤的 Percy，进DL後大概会交给Wheeler关门。 : This is a great bullpen. The log jam creates quite a bit of depth with : Cormier, Salas and Hammel ready to step in when needed. Still, I don't see : how this pen doesn't shorten games to at least 6IP or even possibly 5IP to be : honest. There isn't a weak link except for Percival and if the game is on the : line I don't mind putting anyone in there except for maybe Shouse becasue if : the game is on the line with a lefty up, I'd rather have JP Howell facing : them down than Shouse. That's 6 pitchers you can put into high leverage : situations at any time. Good grief that's awesome! 牛棚爆炸令深度大增，想凭这群RP在6局甚至5局就冻结比赛也不是不可能。除了Percy有 点抖，每一位投手都能独当一面，关键的时候随便推哪个出来也没所谓。except for Shouse, 即使接下来全都是左打，我觉得让J.P. Howell上也比Shouse安心。有6个强 力後援在，没在怕啦 : OVERALL PROJECTION FOR THE 2009 RAYS : The AL East is simply going to be a blood bath. I can't believe I'm saying : this but I'm predicting that the Rays will finish in 3rd place in the AL East : for 2009. That they'll win 90-games in my opinion is a no-brainer. Hell, if : they won 93-94 games it still might only be good enough for 3rd place in the : East. I think the Rays will score runs and I think they'll do a great job at : preventing runs, but so goes for the Yankees & Red Sox too. One thing that : really helped Tampa along in 2008 was New York being horribly down and the : Red Sox running into some bad luck without having Josh Beckett healthy for : almost the entire season. At this point both New York & Boston look ready to : go and Tampa won't have that ace up their sleeve in 2009. They'll be an : excellent baseball team and in reality right now they probably are one of the : top-5 teams in the majors, but the problem is that 2 other teams in that : top-5 play in the same division as Tampa Bay! Third place! Wow. 美东战区会有一番血战是肯定的了，说出来或许会被打，不过大概Rays会拿90胜以上而最 後名列第三吧，老实说在美东拿93-94可能也只能第三。Rays在得分和防守会表现很好， 不过洋基红袜也不是盖的。08年小鱼传奇是靠着天时地利人和，09年要应付两队的完整阵 容，又少了一个王牌压场，长成的小鱼明年大概会是联盟Top 5 teams的其中一队吧， 只是…………………全MLB前五强有前三强在美东 囧 --

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