※ 引述《abc12812 ()》之铭言： 快速翻译有错请见谅 : Sunday, February 01, 2009 by Baseball Savant : The thing I remember most about the Rays before the 2008 season began was : listening to Buster Olney on ESPN Radio one morning talking about how he : could see the Rays winning the AL East. At the time I thought he was nuts. : Sure the Rays were shaping up to be a pretty good club, but I thought their : real breakout would be 2009 or 2010. 在08年球季之前我对光芒的最深的印象就是Buster Olney某天在ESPN上 讲说光芒会如何赢得08的美东冠军。 那时我觉得那只是个玩笑，当然我知道光芒是好的球队， 而且我觉得光芒真正爆发是在2009或者是2010年 : The Rays thought otherwise and proved Olney's premonition correct. The Rays : had a tremendous season in 2008. They won 97-games, the AL East and the AL en : route to the World Series where they fell to the Philadelphia Phillies in : 5-games. I thiny any discussion of the Rays is always going to center around : the supposed "blueprint" they've somehow showed that works against big market : teams. Unfortunately this theory has about as many holes in as can possibly : be tolerated. 光芒证明Olney的预测是对的，他们有猛兽般的08球季，总共赢了97场并拿下美东冠军、 美联冠军直指世界大赛，但是在世界大赛败给费城人队。讨论光芒的重点就在"蓝图" 而这点是跟大市场完全不同的。不幸的是这个理论有许多缺点，但可能可以被忍受。 : Let's think about it for a minute. They got Kazmir in a huge ripoff of the : Mets. They took Carlos Pena off the scrap heap. Turned a former #1 pick into : Matt Garza. Had a 16th round pick (James Shields) turn into gold. Signed : Iwamura from Japan, got JP Howell from Kansas City in the Joey Gathright : deal. Got Dan Wheeler for Ty Wiggington. Took Grant Balfour off the scrap : head and traded for Chad Bradord. Combine that with a TON of first round : draft picks that have worked out (Longoria, Upton, Garza, Crawford & Price) : and you have the Rays blueprint. 我们试着想一想。他们从梅子那里大抢劫来Kazmir、从土推里找来Carlos Pena、用第一 轮选手换来Matt Garza(杨大猛←→Garza)、把第16轮的J.Shields变成黄金、从日本签来 岩村、用新一代腿哥J.Gathright跟皇家换来JP Howell、用Wiggington换Wheeler、从土 推捡到Balfour和交易到潜水艇Braford。结合一堆第一轮(Longoria, Upton, Garza, Crawford and Price)，然後光芒得到他们的蓝图 : The problem is that this a blueprint that is almost unsustainable. Who bats : 1.000 with first round draft picks? Who takes Bryan Bullington over BJ Upton? : Who now is going to trade a Scott Kamir for Victor Zambrano? : At the same time you have to give credit where credit is due. Pulling guys : like Pena, Iwamura, and Balfour off of scrap heaps was amazing. Dealing Young : for Garza, Wiggington for Wheeler and Gathright for Howell were brilliant : moves in retrospect and let's not forget how big of a deal Eric Hinske was : for Tampa Bay early in 2008! The guy hit like a machine and really propelled : the Rays offense early on. The Rays also brought in Gabe Gross to play some : RF last season in a deal with Milwaukee. 问题在於这个蓝图几乎无法维持，谁可以百分百确定第一轮可以顺利养成? 谁会把Bryan Bullington选在BJ Upton前面?(海盗躺着也重枪...) 谁会用V.Zambrano来换S.Kamzir? 捡到Pena,Balfour和岩村是令人惊艳的，回想交易到Garza,Wheeler和Howell是聪明之举 但我们不能忘记恨司机在08年的表现，他打击就像个机器而且帮助光芒的防守 光芒也用G.Gross担任RF脚色 : By all accounts GM Andrew Friedman did a tremendous job assembling the 2008 : Tampa Bay Rays. This year he's pulled some more moves. The base of the team : is pretty much exactly the same but there are some subtle moves that could : pay big dividends for Tampa Bay in 2009. Signing Pat Burrell to play DH was a : fantastic move. Burrell becomes automatically the best DH Tampa has ever had. : He brings to the team tremendous plate discipline and the ability to hit : 30-35HR per year. Friedman dealt an extra arm in Edwin Jackson to the Tigers : for RF Matt Joyce. Joyce potentially has 30HR power and can play a : staggeringly good defense in RF. GM在08作了太棒的工作了，09他也做了一些补强动作而这些动作将会带给光芒很大的帮助 签下P.Burrell当DH，Burrell自动成为TB有史以来最好的DH，他拥有极佳的本垒板纪律 而且有能力每年敲出30-35HR。GM把E.Jackson交易到老虎得到M.Joyce，Joyce则有年产 30HR的潜力，而且在RF有良好的防守 : Friedman did a good job of getting his pitching staff fortified too. David : Price will now enter the rotation as a full time starter, taking over where : Edwin Jackson left off. Clearly Price has the talent to be a dominant #1 : starter in the major leagues and gaining an arm like that only can improve : the ballclub. In the pen, Friedman didn't rest on his laurels of already : having the best bullpen in the majors. He added guys like Joe Smith, Brian : Shouse and Lance Cormier to provide some depth to go along with dominant : pitchers such as Grant Balfour, JP Howell and Dan Wheeler. GM也加强的投手部分。Top 1新秀D.Price代替Jackson的工作终於加入轮值，很清楚的 Price有当ACE的天份。在牛棚 GM并没有因为去年是全MLB最佳牛棚而停下脚步，加入了 J.Smith, B.Shouse和L.Cormier来增加深度 : So that is sort of the blueprint Tampa is going under. It's really a great : blueprint and I think that is the real story of Tampa in 2008. They busted : out earlier than I expected, but as all Oakland A's fans know, the real test : comes with repeatability and let's not forget that Tampa didn't come home : with the prize. Last year was an insane year for Tampa. They went from worst : to first and got to the World Series, but now is when the grind for elite : status begins and if the Rays keep winning then they won't have #1 draft : picks to replenish their system. At some point if they keep payroll stagnant : they'll have to keep finding diamonds in the rough and making their draft : choices even more shrewdly because the obvious pick won't be there. They : drafted SS Tim Beckham last season with the #1 overall pick, but that might : be their last #1 pick for quite awhile. : Will this blueprint cash in on what was missed last season? Let's take a look. 所以这就是光芒蓝图的类型 光芒持续赢球 他们无法再拿到第一顺位的选秀来补充他们的农场，而且如果光芒的预算 不能扩大，他们只能在草堆里寻找钻石而且在选秀里更加精明 去年他们选T.Beckham为状元郎，但是这很可能是光芒一段时间内最後的第一顺位了 : 2009 RAYS STARTING LINEUP : C-Dioner Navarro: 295/349/407; 7HR, 27-2B, 54RBI, 12.6AB/BB, 0SB, 98OPS+ : It's odd to think Navarro is just going to be 25-years old because it seems : he's been around forever. Maybe that's me being a Yankees fan and knowing : about him since he's come up through the minor leagues, but still. If you can : believe from the above stat line, Navarro was actually an All-Star last : season. This had more to do with the fact that Posada & Martinez were hurt : and Varitek is just a shell of his former self, but for now, Navarro is not : only an All-Star catcher but also a championship caliber catcher if you : believe in that sort of thing when a team makes it to the World Series. Last : season Navarro's offense was carried by his .321 BABIP which drove his : batting average to almost .300. For his career to date his established BABIP : is only .292 so he was well over his previous production. The average is : going down meaning the ISO OBP% is going down too, but he did thump a few : more doubles last season so there might be a little more power to come. : Assuming Victor Martinez & Jorge Posada can't catch anymore, is it too much : to say that Navarro might be the 2nd best catcher in the AL behind Joe Mauer? : Matt Wieters isn't up yet and Saltalamacchia hasn't established himself in : Texas yet either. It's a helluva positional advantage to have. Navarro实际上有个All-Star season，当然有部份是因为Posada,V-Mart受伤， Varitek退化严重。但是Navarro现在不只是个All-Star更是个有冠军实力的捕手 接着说Navarro的进步..... 如果Posada, V-Mart不能再蹲捕 说Navarro是美连第二名的捕手会太超过吗? 超级新人M.Wieters还没上来 Salty在条子也还没展示他在MiLB的实力 : 1B-Carlos Pena: 347/377/494; 31HR, 24-2B, 102RBI, 5.1AB/BB, 1SB, 127OPS+ : First half OPS was .778. Second half OPS was .978! Pena got off to a brutal : start but salvaged a season by becoming a monster in the 2nd half. When you : take a look at Pena's season, there isn't much difference in 2008 as there : was in 2007 as far as the peripheral stats go except for one category: HR/F : ratio. In 2007 when Pena went bezerk at the plate, 30% of his fly balls went : out of the yard. In 2008, only 19% did. What is troubling for Pena is that : from 2004-2006, his HR/F% were 18%, 17% & 18% respectively. In 2007 it was : 30% but in 2008 it was back to 19%. So what number looks like the outlier? : Even in his monster 2nd half, Pena only had a 22% HR/F ratio so even then it : wasn't back up to 30%. Remember too that 2007 was Pena's age-29 season. For : the most part, Pena is probably a .260-.270 hitter with serious power who has : incredible plate discipline. He's also a helluva defensive 1B. You can : certainly make the argument he's the best defensive 1B in the AL outside of : Lyle Overbay. If Pena can avoid a 1st half mess again, then he's easily a : .250-40-110 hitter in the middle of a very good lineup. Pena在上半季不理想OPS只有.778 但是下半季却是.978!!! 接着说Pena飞球跟HR的比率 07年是夸张的30% 就算是08下半季那麽强也只有22% 所以Pena应该不可能回到那麽变态的07年成绩 而且Pena有极佳的本垒板纪律(选球)还有很不错的防守 能力应该只在Overbay之下 如果Pena开季不要那麽糟 应该会有 AVG.250 40HR 110RBI的成绩 : 2B-Akinori Iwamura: 274/349/380; 6HR, 30-2B, 48RBI, 9.0AB:BB, 8SB, 92OPS+ : I know I'm only remembering Iwamura's play against the White Sox and : conveniently forgetting his performance against Boston & Philadelphia, but : wow did it seem like this kid came to dominate during the playoffs! In : reality, Iwamura is just an OK player. Offensively he's below average : although he does have some doubles power and pretty good strikezone : judgement. On the other hand, his OPS+ of 92 puts him below average : offensively. He's solid defensively at 2B, but he isn't tremendous either. He : strikes out a ton and doesn't make the best of baserunning plays. It's sort : of hard to figure. On the one hand when you watch him play he seems like a : sparkplug. On the other, his stats say he's not all that good. What's : interesting is that there is some semblance of a skill set here but for : whatever reason there is no real consolidation of skills. He is a foreign : import and maybe he needs a couple of years to adjust? I like what I see when : I watch him play but when you take that out of the equation....well.....it's : not that good. 岩村只是个OK player 进攻上大约低於平均 他有制造一些2B的power还有良好的好球带 在2B的防守算流畅但非顶尖，三振太多 在跑垒上也没太好 看他上场觉得他似乎是个领导份子，从另一方面来看又没那麽好 总之没那麽好 so so player : 3B-Evan Longoria: 272/343/531; 27HR, 31-2B, 85RBI, 9.7AB:BB, 7SB, 125OPS+ : Longoria finished as the AL Rookie of the Year and actually finished 11th in : the MVP voting. He's just 22 by the way! Let's get the defense out of the way : first. He's great. He'll be a contender for a gold glove at the hot corner : for years to come. His RZR (revised zone rating) was the best in the AL for : 3B with at least 1,000 innings played. It was tied with Scott Rolen so you : know Longoria can pick it at 3B. Offensively, it sound ridiculous but there : is room for the guy to get better. He struckout a little too much meaning his : contact rate could get better and will as he gets more selective at the : plate. As odd as it seems, lefties ate him up besides him being a : right-handed hitter. He didn't hit all that great at home which is odd : because hitters are usually creatures of habit and routine so being at home : should make Longoria more comfortable in the future. Longoria also had a : fairly awful September which sort of played its way into the playoffs. He did : well in the ALDS & ALCS but he hit a woeful .050/.050/.050 in the World : Series! I don't see how he's not the 2nd best 3B in the AL behind A-Rod at : this point and he might be closing fast. If he makes some adjustments, : Longoria could go .300-40-120 and if the Rays win the AL East again, you're : looking at the next AL MVP. 龙哥拿到了08年的新人王而且在MVP票选在第11位 他还只有22岁!!!! 在防守上很棒 应该会是以後金手套的热门人选 他的RZR是全美联最佳(超过1000局守备) 进攻上它还有许多空间可以进步，三振太多表示他的contact还有进步空间 而且选球也会更好，但是左投对他仍是个大威胁，在自家球场打的比较不好更是奇怪(XD) [作者隐涵龙哥成绩↑↑↑ good!!!!] 九月打的很差(应该是受伤的原因) 而且在季後赛很不好 虽然ALDS ALCS OK 但是在WS 只有.050/.050/.050 Orz... 他是A-Rod之後得最佳3B 而且差距会越来越小 如果他有做些调整及进步 大概会有.300 40HR 120RBI !!!!! 而且如果光芒再次拿下美东冠军 别意外龙哥会是MVP : SS-Jason Bartlett: 286/329/361; 1HR, 25-2B, 37RBI, 20.6AB:BB, 20SB, 82OPS+ : Defense is the name of his guy's game. The 20 steals is nice but a guy needs : to steal at a 75% success rate to help a team. Bartlett was caught 6 times : last season so his steal rate was just 77% so he's even teetering on being : not useful there. In all honestly, I'm not entirely sure what Tampa Bay gets : from Bartlett that it couldn't get from Ben Zobrist at SS? Sure Reid Brignac : looks like a bust at this point, but Zobrist actually had a better RZR than : Bartlett at defense with a lot more pop in his bat. Zobrist is also a : switch-hitter who can hit righties, something Bartlett struggles mightily to : do. The more I look it at the more I wonder why Bartlett is playing? He can't : do much with the bat and while his defense is pretty good, he's not Ozzie : Smith either. 防守很棒 但是不懂为何TB不用B.Zobrist来当SS Zobrist的RZR比Bartlett还好 而且更有power 还是switch hitter [最後用Ozzie Smith酸了Bartlett] : LF-Carl Crawford: 273/319/400; 8HR, 12-2B, 57RBI, 14.8AB:BB, 25SB, 87OPS+ : From 2002-2007, Crawford saw an increase in his OPS+ in every single year! : That's pretty amazing, but last season finger & hamstring problems held him : up and his OPS+ dropped to a terrible 87. Because of his injuries, his power : and speed were decimated and we get the batting line that you see above. I'm : not really sure what to think about Crawford. Because of his speed, he's a : pretty exciting player and he plays a TERRIFIC defensive LF. On the other : hand, you don't need great defense to play LF and that positon is usually : reserved for guys who hit a ton. Because of BJ Upton in CF, the Rays can get : away with having Crawford in LF, but he does have a pretty good skill set. : For the most part he's a 4-tool player with all the tools except power, but : then again because of his doubles and triples potential, he can slug in the : high-.400s. I'm kind of on the fence with Crawford because he seems more like : a fantasy player, but I'm warming up to him. He'll only be 27-years old so : he's just now hitting his prime years! That could get scary. 从02-07 Crawford的OPS+每年进步 但是今年只有87.... 去年手指跟大腿伤势困恼着他 不用多说Crawford他进攻上利用速度 而且LF防守超好 但是不可能把它移防CF 因为CF是BJ Upton 他是个4 tools打者(缺少power) 但是因为速度可以制造许多2B和3B 让他的SLG可以到.400 他才27岁 而且持续进步 : CF-B.J. Upton: 273/383/401; 9HR, 37-2B, 67RBI, 5.5AB:BB, 44SB, 107OPS+ : Shoulder injury was the reason Upton hit 24HR in 2007 but followed up with : just 9 in 2008. The problem is that he had surgery in November and now it : looks like he won't be playing on opening day for Tampa. Upton is just going : to be 24-years old and I really can't imagine what the Pirates think seeing : him blossom the way he has in Tampa Bay while Bryan Bullington sucks. Still, : 2009 might be a wash for Upton. If the shoulder stuff lingers then his power : might not be 100% once again in 2009 although in the 2008 post-season it : didn't seem to be hampered. Upton plays a good defensive CF and has plate : discipline to spare. He strikesout a TON although that did improve from 2007 : to 2008. Upton has all the skills to breakout and I don't think seeing him : with multiple 40-40 seasons is completley out of the question. If it wasn't : for the shoulder, he might be playing for the title as best player in the : game given his position, but it might have to wait a year before we see Upton : finally put it all together. 肩膀问题让Upton 08年只敲出9HR 现在已经动完手术 我还是不懂为什麽Upton已经在TB开花结果而02年状元郎Bryan Bullington still sucks [海盗真的很可怜 一直被鞭 明明作者前面就讲到不是每个状元签都养的出来...] 最算肩膀开好刀Upton在09年还是不会恢复所有的power 防守极佳 虽然三振超级多但是仍有再进步 Upton有能力breakout[07年很强了还不算breakout....作者...]40-40对他不会是个问题 如果不是肩膀问题他早就是CF这个位子上的最佳球员 等待Upton的breakout : RF-Matt Joyce: 252/339/492; 12HR, 16-2B, 33RBI, 7.8AB:BB, 0SB, 116OPS+ : The Rays thought they didn't have a regular RF in Gabe Gross so used an extra : part, Edwin Jackson, to use as trade bait with the Tigers to land minor : league prospect Matt Joyce. Last season was Joyce's first taste of major : league pitching and he aquitted himself very nicely. The Rays are hoping : Joyce can be a lefty power bat. Known to have gap-to-gap power in the minor : leagues, Joyce really stepped up his game and provided power in Comerica : where power pretty much goes to die. Trading in Comerica for the Trop and : getting regular playing time could mean possibly 30HR for Joyce in a Rays : uniform. He's an outstanding defensive player giving the Rays the best : outfield defense in the major leagues potentially. Just 24-years of age : heading in 2009, Joyce has a couple of years of consolidation before he : enters his prime sesaons. By all accounts this was an incredible move on the : part of GM Andrew Friedman. 光芒不认为Gross会是RF的答案 所以交易来Joyce 希望Joyce可以带来左打的power 因为Comerica Park容易吃掉power 所以预计Joyce可以在Trop打出30HR的实力 他才24岁 : DH-Pat Burrell: 250/367/507; 33HR, 33-2B, 86RBI, 5.3AB:BB, 0SB, 125OPS+ : Burrell's last 4 years of OPS+ have been 128, 122, 127 & 125. That's : consistency so you know what you are going to get from Burrell if you are a : Rays fan. Essentially the Rays are going to get 30HR, 100RBI, and an OPS+ of : 125. That makes Burrell the best DH the Rays have had in their history and : he's only been the DH for about 5-minutes. It actually works for Burrell too : because he may be the worst LF in baseball defensively. In a reversal of "If : You Can't Beat Them, Join Them", Burrell actually beat Tampa in the 2008 : World Series and now finds himself playing for them. I'm a huge fan of : exploiting the DH position because it's a market inefficiency that only : relies on a player's ability to hit without having to take his defense into : consideration. The Rays are doing just that with Burrell. Having him, Pena, : Longoria, Upton & Joyce in the lineup give Tampa 5 players with the potential : to hit 30HR each. The Rays ranked 4th last season in HR hit but with this : kind of arsenal, they may get even better! Burrell最近四年的OPS+是128, 122, 127和125 Burrell太适合打DH了 因为它几乎是防守上最烂的LF "如果不能打败他就加入他"正是光芒09年的写照←签下Burrell 加上Burrell TB将有五个球员有机会打30HR(Pena Longoria Upton Joyce) 以下之後再翻 好累= = --

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