※ [本文转录自 Sixers 看板 #1GKm6C7A ] 作者: willyt (ㄌㄔ2015 世界一流) 看板: Sixers 标题: [外电] 以进阶数据为中心初窥新英格兰超级联赛 时间: Fri Sep 14 18:06:01 2012 Advanced stats: Atlantic Division could be best in league 细说进阶数据：沉没的亚特兰堤斯重见天日 大西洋组将成为联盟最强悍的分区 John Schuhmann / NBA.com Posted Sep 13, 2012 11:52 AM - Updated Sep 13, 2012 3:33 PM http://tinyurl.com/9ftrjnv Here's a crazy thought: The Atlantic Division, just three years after it sent only one team to the playoffs, could be the best in basketball. 我有个轰动武林惊动万教的想法：三年之前只有绿色苜蓿探出海平面的 大西洋组，将会成为今年全NBA竞争最强的分区。 The Boston Celtics have retooled and look to be the second best team in the Eastern Conference. The New York Knicks will once again be a dangerous playoff team. The Brooklyn Nets should be the most improved team in the league. The Philadelphia 76ers just got themselves a franchise player. And the Toronto Raptors should take another step forward under Dwane Casey. 波士顿重新梳理了他们的轮替，并且希望维持住他们东区第二的位置； 纽约已经重返季後赛，并且仍然是支危险的队伍；布鲁克林大概是全联 盟当中引援规模最大的球队；费城得到了新一代的招牌球员；甚至连远 在枫叶国的多伦多，都在Dwane Casey的计画中，向正确的方向上迈开 大步。 Each team, of course, had some issues last year, mostly on the offensive end of the floor. The question is how well those issues can be addressed. So here's a deeper look at a key stat from last season for each team, and how that number might change this year. 当然每个球队在上个球季都有他们自己的问题，尤其大部分都是出在进 攻端。所以我们将以进阶数据为工具带领大家深入了解大西洋组的五个 球队，并且分析今年他们将如何克服问题并且取得数字上的进步。 Boston Celtics Record: 39-27 Pace: 92.6 (22) OffRtg: 98.9 (24) DefRtg: 95.5 (2) NetRtg: +3.4 (7) Pace = Possessions per 48 minutes (攻速 / 四十八分钟平均攻势次数) OffRtg = Points scored per 100 possessions (进攻效率 / 每一百波进攻平均得分) DefRtg = Points allowed per 100 possessions (防守效率 / 每一百波进攻平均失分) NetRtg = Point differential per 100 possessions (净得失分速率 / 每一百波进攻得失分差) The Celtics have regressed offensively each of the last four seasons. Last season, their big drop-off was largely due to their free-throw rate. After ranking in the top 10 in each of the first four seasons with the big three, they ranked 22nd last season, getting to the line just 26 times per 100 field goal attempts. 绿色苜蓿过去在三巨头时代一向不需要担心他们的进攻效率，但是上个 球季他们上罚球线的效率有着明显的下降。一开始的四年他们的罚球率 (FTA/FGA)一直都是全联盟前十位，但是今年他们下降到倒数第九名， 每一百次的出手他们只能换到26次的罚球。 One big reason for the drop in free throw rate was Kevin Garnett's move to center, with Brandon Bass (another jump shooter) replacing him at power forward. That will be the starting frontline again this season, so it will be difficult for the Celtics to get to the line much more often. 最大的差距在於他们将Kevin Garnett换到了中锋位置，而将另外一个 跳投人Brandon Bass放到了先发四号。而这个状况在今年将会持续，因 为他们还是必须让Bass跟Big Ticket一起先发，所以一个很显而易见的 忧虑就是他们上罚球线的优势将再也回不去了。 Jason Terry, Courtney Lee and Jeff Green are all solid additions, but none of the three will get to the line much. The Celtics' only hope for more trips to the stripe may be whether rookie Jared Sullinger can earn a spot in the rotation. Sullinger attempted 52 free throws per 100 field goal attempts at Ohio State last season, and shot them at a decent clip (77 percent) for a big man. Jet/Lee/Green都是不错的轮替球员，但是他们没有办法协助绿色苜蓿 从赚犯规上罚球线的挣扎与短缺中有所斩获。他们唯一的机会就是让 Buckeyes的明星Jered Sullinger赶紧准备好，至少可以在轮替中成为 固定一员，因为Sully过去在OSU就以他制造犯规的惊人效率闻名，他 可以在100次出手当中赚到52次上罚球线的机会，而且罚球命中率高达 77%，身为一个进攻主力与长人来说，这样的数字非常惊人。 Brooklyn Nets Record: 22-44 Pace: 92.7 (21) OffRtg: 99.7 (23) DefRtg: 106.9 (29) NetRtg: -7.2 (28) Four of the Nets' five starters are returnees, but you basically have to throw out last year's numbers. Gerald Wallace played just 16 games with the Nets last season, Brook Lopez played just five, and Joe Johnson adds an entirely new element to the mix. 虽然帐面上看起来，篮网的四个先发都是他们去年留下来重签的，但是 你基本上可以不用拿去年的数字来跟今年比较。Gerald Wallace去年经 由交易入队，只有先发16场；Brook Lopez因伤所困仅仅先发五场；而 他们还加入了非常惊人的Joe Johnson提昇自己先发的火力水准。 Deron Williams has never played with a wing scorer like Johnson, and Johnson hasn't played with a dynamic point guard like Williams since he left Phoenix seven years ago. The two should make each other's lives easier. Deron Williams无论在盐湖城还是在纽华克都从来没有跟Joe Johnson 这个等级的侧翼球员共事的机会；而反过来说，Johnson在离开凤凰城 後也从来没有跟Deron Williams这个等级的明星控球联手过。这两个人 的组合将很有可能成就如鱼得水、互利共生一般的正面结果。 When Williams was on the floor last season, his Nets teammates had a true shooting percentage of 52.7 percent, up from 49.8 percent when he was on the bench. When Johnson was on the floor last season, his Hawks teammates had a true shooting percentage of 53.8 percent, up from 51.9 percent when he was on the bench. So both players make their teammates more efficient. 以去年为例，当小胖在场上时，队友的真实命中率(TS%)是52.7%，但是 当他休息时，队友的TS%则会下降到49.8%；同样的，去年Joe Johnson 在老鹰时，他在场时队友的TS%是53.8%，而当他在场下时，队友的TS% 下降到51.9%。换句话说，这两个球员在场上都有让队友得分变得更简 单有效率的能力。 True shooting percentage = PTS / (2 * (FGM + (0.44*FTA))) 真实命中率 TS% ： ｛ 得分 / [ 2 ( 命中数 + 0.44 * 罚球次数) ] ｝ Interior defense will certainly be an issue, but with an All-Star backcourt, the potential is there for the Nets to be a very potent offensive team. 当然很明显的，篮网的内线防守将会是他们一大忧患，不过他们豪华且 能力强悍的後场组合将会带领篮网的进攻迈向一个新的等级。 注：我个人是认为比较Joe Johnson跟Deron Williams的场上场下队友真 实命中率并不是一个很好的指标，因为JJ去年上场60场，总共2127分钟 (平均35.5)、小胖则是上场55场，总共1999分钟(平均36.3)。他们在场 上支撑了大部分的时间，而且通常与他们同时上场的大部分都是先发球 员或是first unit，也就是说他下场时本身比较的队友母群体，能力本 身就有极大的差异，比较起来要有两个到三个百分点的差距似乎也不是 像John Schuhmann所讲的这麽神奇，反而应该要扣掉这两个群体应该有 的实力差距；因此可以说这个差距有非常大的可能是坐落在误差范围内 ，而不能当作是球员能力的指标。当然无论如何，我相信Joe Johnson 跟Deron Williams他们在场上多年的表现都再再证明过他们是个能协助 队友变得更好的球员，只是我对以这个数据作为佐证持保留态度。 New York Knicks Record: 36-30 Pace: 95.7 (5) OffRtg: 101.4 (19) DefRtg: 98.4 (5) NetRtg: +3.0 (10) Tyson Chandler made a huge defensive impact on the Knicks last season, taking them from the bottom 10 to the top five in defensive efficiency. But maybe even more amazing was that a team with Carmelo Anthony and Amar'e Stoudemire could be below average offensively. Tyson Chandler去年以一己之力拯救了尼克的防守，让他们的防守一下 从联盟後段班一路跃升到top 5。但是比起这个结果还要更神奇的其实 是：这个球队同时拥有Melo跟Stat却能够在进攻效率排行榜上低於联盟 平均。 Anthony and Stoudemire obviously have very little on-court chemistry. The Knicks were even worse offensively (99.1 points scored per 100 possessions) when the two were on the floor together. And New York has been outscored by 123 points in the 1,880 minutes the two have played together over 1 and 1/2 seasons. 直到目前为止，Melo跟Stat的化学效应就像是两个中性盐溶液中和後， 完全不起任何反应。尼克的在此两人共同上场时的进攻效率(Ortg)还比 他们去年的平均还要糟糕(99.1)。而且更糟糕的是当他们两个同时上场 时(以过去一又二分之一球季的合作为母群体计算)，总共1,880分钟内 他们的净失分是可怕的123分。 But the Knicks really regressed in just two offensive categories last season, and neither has much to do with how well Anthony and Stoudemire mesh on the floor. New York went from fourth (in 2010-11) to 27th in turnover rate, and from eighth to 21st in 3-point percentage. 不过庆幸的是，除了默契之外，他们的问题蛮简单的：只要他们把失误 速率(前年第四，上季倒数第四)与三分球命中率(前年第八，上季倒数 第十)的问题解决的话，他们的进攻效率将能有效提昇。 There's plenty of reason to believe that the turnover issues will be (mostly) resolved this season. First, Anthony isn't going to be playing point forward anymore. Second, Jeremy Lin, who committed almost five turnovers per 36 minutes, is gone. Third, Davis is also gone, and the Knicks had a worse turnover rate with Davis on the floor (18.7 turnovers per 100 possessions) than they did with Lin on the floor (17.2). 尤其是改善失误率的部份，我想纽约人有乐观的看待失误问题会顺利解 决的资格。首先，Melo将不再打控球前锋；再者，去年让他们失误率大 幅增加的Jeremy Lin(平均36分钟5次失误)已经远走南疆；最後，他们 本季不需要再看到Baron Davis上场，他的失误率甚至还比Jeremy Lin 还要凄惨，Lin在场时一百波进攻「只会」发生17.2次失误，而天使城 人在场时则「高达」18.7次。 New point guard Raymond Felton wasn't much better than Lin in terms of turnover rate last season. But the Knicks did take care of the ball pretty well when he was running the point two years ago. They committed just 14.1 turnovers per 100 possessions in Felton's 2,074 minutes on the floor. 虽然他们本季预定的先发控球Raymond Felton去年也没有在这个领域上 取得比较优秀的数字，但是尼克在以前拥有Felton时，当时Felton的失 误控制相当的不错。当Felton两年前还在纽约时，他在2,074分钟的上 场时间当中，每一百波进攻只会出现14.1次失误。 注: 但是现在的尼克与当时的尼克阵型又有所不同，甚至教练也不再是 Mike D'Antoni。他要如何在Woodson的系统当中同时满足Melo与Stat的 进攻模式与spacing同时又要降低失误，绝对是个挑战。 Philadelphia 76ers Record: 35-31 Pace: 91.9 (24) OffRtg: 101.7 (17) DefRtg: 96.6 (3) NetRtg: +5.1 (5) The Sixers set an NBA record by turning the ball over just 11.2 times per game last season. But in every other aspect, their offense was pretty bad. And the Celtics' free throw rate problems (described above) were minor compared to those of Philly, who attempted less than 22 free throws per 100 field goal attempts. 去年七六人节制失误的次数(每场11.2次)是历史等级的优秀，但是这对 他们去年平凡的进攻似乎没有太大的帮助。更糟糕的是，我们前文提到 绿色苜蓿创造罚球机会的能力是如此的不足，但是在七六人去年的表现 面前(平均100次出手只能创造22次罚球)，绿军只能算是小巫见大巫。 Enter Andrew Bynum, whose free throw rate was almost twice that. Bynum and Elton Brand played the same amount of games last season, but Bynum (338) attempted 222 more free throws than Brand (116) did. Of course, like Brand, the two guys who led the Sixers in free throw attempts last season, Lou Williams (292) and Andre Iguodala (196) are gone. 不过在电车男的加入後，这样的罚球乾旱将能被期待有效解决。Bynum 光是自己个人的罚球率就是七六人上计团队数字的两倍。而且仔细端详 後你会发现Bynum跟Brand去年的上场场次一样，但是Bynum(338FTA)创 造了比Brand多222次的罚球次数。但是除此之外，七六人在罚球数的短 缺还发生在离队球员所带走的贡献上，AI9(196FTA)与Lou(292FTA)的空 缺将必须想办法填补，才能真正解决七六人同样是历史级的罚球荒。 Really, with Bynum on board, the Sixers' offense should be very different. Replacing Brand with Bynum, they should be less of a jump-shooting team. Only two teams (Charlotte and Boston) attempted a greater percentage of their shots from mid-range than the Sixers did last season. And Brand took more than half of his shots from outside the paint. 不唬你，在电车男孩加入後，七六人连进攻都将变得很不一样。用安猪 取代EB的正面影响还体现在进攻模式上，七六人将不再是一个极端依靠 跳投的球队。去年只有山猫与波士顿这两支球队比七六人更依赖跳投机 会取分，而Brand就是其中的一个关键，他的出手有超过一半是在禁区 之外完成。 Bynum, despite his professed affinity for launching threes, took 90 percent of his shots from the paint. He's a big man who plays big, and that should benefit the Sixers offensively. 虽然大家都拿他那个三分出来说嘴，但是Bynum有超过90%的出手机会是 在禁区内取得，他将像是一个巨人一般支撑与加强七六人的进攻端。 Toronto Raptors Record: 23-43 Pace: 91.6 (28) OffRtg: 98.5 (25) DefRtg: 101.5 (12) NetRtg: -3.0 (23) The Raptors were the most improved defensive team in the league last season, but they also regressed quite a bit offensively. And, like the Knicks, their biggest issue was turnovers, committing 16.5 of them per 100 possessions, the fifth-highest rate in the league. 暴龙是去年联盟当中防守端进步最多的球队，但是他们在进攻端的表现 只能用千山鸟飞绝来形容。而且，就如同纽约人一样，多伦多也面临了 脱离失误轮回的迫切问题，去年每一百波进攻当中多伦多会出现16.5次 的失误，这是联盟倒数第五。 It wasn't long ago (2007-08) that the Raps had the lowest turnover rate in the league, and they ranked sixth just two seasons ago. But point guard Jose Calderon's turnover percentage has risen each of the last two years. 但是在几年之前他们曾经在这个排行榜上占据排头集团的位置，他们两 季之前是这个排行榜的第六位，但是他们的发动机Jose Calderon出现 了跳俥问题，曾经是这个项目不动王者的他在过去两个球季失误率都往 上攀升，亮起了红灯。 The addition of Kyle Lowry could take some of the pressure off Calderon to make plays, but Lowry himself probably won't help in the turnover department. His rate of 18.8 turnovers per 100 possessions was worse than Calderon's and 22nd among starting point guards last season. Kyle Lowry的到来将有可能协助Calderon降压，但是Lowry本身也不是 善於节制失误的控球後卫。他去年在一百波进攻当中会出现18.8次的失 误，这比陷入低潮的西班牙人还要惊人，在联盟的先发控球当中这是倒 数第九的表现。 Either way, the return of Andrea Bargnani and the addition of Jonas Valanciunas should give the Raptors' offense a boost. But if Lowry and Calderon can do a better job of taking care of the ball, than the two bigs can make more of an impact. 不过无论如何，义大利人Andrea Bargnani的归队以及立陶宛人Jonas Valanciunas的加入将能够有效协助暴龙在进攻端重回正轨。但若是两 位控球後卫能够找到办法把他们手上的小皮球牢牢抓好并且安全的送到 队友手上，那将能够大大地增加Bargnani跟Jonas在进攻端的产出。 -- ┌─────────────────────────────────────┐ │ 文章代码(AID): #1GEHEOoX (Sixers) [ptt.cc] [Preview] Threatens / 大西 │ │ 文章网址: http://webptt.com/cn.aspx?n=bbs/Sixers/M.1345917848.A.CA1.html │ │ 这一篇文章值 4 Ptt币 │ └─────────────────────────────────────┘ ● 28 m 5 8/26 willyt □ [Preview] Threatens / 大西洋修罗场 I told u so~ φ(._. )> --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 111.243.237.85 ※ 编辑: willyt 来自: 111.243.237.85 (09/14 18:18)

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ※ 转录者: timk7 (140.112.20.125), 时间: 09/14/2012 18:21:52