最近都没事好无聊~~ 再来看看新秀吧 先跟大家道歉 因为上礼拜感冒加上这阵子有点怠惰 到现在才将这篇翻出来... ============================================================================== 原文网址 http://ppt.cc/C9ns 前面说明此评比是基於球员目前表现以及未来潜力 完整的报告要买他的书才看得到(推销文)云云 恕删 QUICK PRIMER ON GRADE MEANINGS Grade A prospects are the elite. In theory, they have a good chance of becoming stars or superstars. Theoretically, most Grade A prospects develop into stars or at least major league regulars, if injuries or other problems don’t intervene. Note that is a major "if" in some cases. 得到评价A的潜力新秀是最顶尖的 理论上 他们有很好的机会变成明星或超级明星 如果没有遇到伤痛或其他意外干涉 大部分A级的新秀应该都可以成为明星或至少大联盟常态先发 要注意的是 这个"如果"在某些case中占很重要的因素 Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role. 得到B评价的潜力新秀有很好的机会享受成功的生涯 有些会发展成明星 有些则否 大部分最後都能在MLB待上好几年 只有极少数会变成在大联盟上下的边缘角色 Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Many end up as role players or bench guys. Some don’t make it at all. 得到评价C的潜力新秀是最普通的类型 那是些拥有正面表现 但也存在些许疑虑的新秀 或者只是离大联盟还太远以至於还难以准确感受 一些得到评级C的新秀 特别是那些还在低阶的 有可以会发展成明星球员 很多最後会成为功能型球员或者板凳 但一些根本上不了大联盟... Finally, keep in mind that all grades are shorthand. You have to read the full comment in the book for the full analysis about a player, the letter grade only tells you so much. A Grade C prospect in rookie ball could end up being very impressive, while a Grade C prospect in Triple-A is likely just a future role player. 最後 请记得这些评价都只是短评 如果你想得知更全面的分析请去买书 因为这里能告诉你的不多 一个在RK的新秀得到评级C的新秀最後可能变得非常令人惊艳 而一个在3A得到评价C的新秀 最後可能只是个功能型球员... 1) Joey Gallo, 3B, Grade A-: Age 21, enormous power is the key here with 42 homers in 2014, made progress with swing mechanics and pitch recognition although strikeout rate remains very high. Defense at third isn’t bad either. Still risky, but less so than seemed last year. Possible outcome: hybrid of Ryan Howard, Adam Dunn, and Chris Davis? If you want to dream, how about Jim Thome? 巨大的力量 2014年 他改善他的挥棒机制和辨认球种的能力 在三垒的防守也有进步 虽然被三振率依然过高 风险仍然高 但比起去年已经减少了 未来的样子：想像Ryan Howard、Adam Dunn和Chris Davis混合的样子 如果你愿意想像 Jim Thome如何呢? (补充：在我的想像里面 Troy Glaus或许是另一个值得期待的样貌 另外 在John Sickels已经公布的名单中 其他获得评级A的潜力新秀有 Dylan Bundy,RHP,A-,BAL 、 Brandon Finnegan,LHP,A-/B+,KC 、 Byron Buxton,OF,A,MIN 、 Miguel Sano,3B,A-,MIN 、 Noah Syndergaard,RHP,A-,NYM Kris Bryant,3B,A,CHC 、 Addison Russell,SS,A,CHC 、 Jorge Soler,OF,A,CHC 、 Kyle Schwarber,C-OF,A-,CHC 、 Francisco Lindor,SS,A,CLE) 2) Nomar Mazara, OF, Grade B+: Age 19, hit .264/.358/.470 in Low-A then .306/.381/.518 after moving up to Double-A for 24 games. Made real progress turning raw power into game power, defense also sharper. Downside would be Karim Garcia-like stagnation at higher levels, upside is .280, 30-homer hitter. This ranking is more aggressive than typical but Mazara was really impressive. Mazara扎扎实实地将本身拥有的raw power转换到比赛中 而且防守也变得更锐利 他较不乐观的模板会是像Karim Garcia般在高阶停滞不前 (补充：Karim Garcia-前道奇农场大物 在3A缴出屠杀成绩 可是一上去就软掉 後来有到日职欧力士猛牛和韩职乐天巨人发展 这句话的意思就是Mazara最坏会变成另一个4A王 这端看他的hit tool能发挥到什麽程度 有球探认为他是有机会发展成hit/power为60/60-70的打者 但目前他的hit tool大概只有20~30分) 而他的upeside则是打击率.280 30支全垒打的打者 将他排在第二名是比起一般排名还大胆的决定 但Mazara的表现真的令人惊艳 3) Alex Gonzalez, RHP, Grade B+/Borderline B: Age 23, former Oral Roberts ace and 2013 first-round pick thrived in first full season, 2.66 ERA with 113/41 K/BB in 139 innings between High-A and Double-A. Needs more innings to polish change-up to go with solid fastball/slider. Looks like a number three starter to me if that happens. 2013第一轮选入的投手 第一个完整球纪就有很棒的表现 高一A加2A共投了139局 防御率是2.66 外加近3的K/BB值 他还需要更多的局数磨练他的变速好搭配他可靠的速球和滑球 在我的眼光中 他目前看来是个三号先发 4) Jake Thompson, RHP, Grade B/Borderline B+: Age 20, stolen from Tigers in Joakim Soria trade, ran up 3.12 ERA with 130/47 K/BB in 130 innings at three levels. Like Gonzalez he can be a number three starter with low-90s fastball, slider, change. Right now I have Gonzalez a little ahead but that could change by the time the book is done, it is possible that Thompson could wind up as a B+. 从Soria交易案偷来的投手 在三个层级中一共交出130局的投球 3.12防御率加上近3的K/BB值 凭着low-90s的速球和滑球以及变速球 让他如Gonzalez般像是个三号先发 目前我让Gonzalez排在前面 但等书出来时 Thompson的排名或许会超过Gonzalez 到那时他的评级就会跃上B+ 4) Jorge Alfaro, C, Grade B/Borderline B+: Age 21, ranks ahead of Mazara on most lists but he is two years older and a less effective hitter. Despite all of his superb defensive tools, he remains a rough defender prone to excessive mistakes and receiving miscues with little sign of improvement. If he can’t sharpen his catching skills, his attractiveness goes way down. Can’t rate him higher until his defensive results improve, but B/B+ is still a high grade all things considered. 大部分的排名将他排在Mazara之前 但基於他比Mazara大两岁且是个较不具效率的打者 我将他排在Mazara之後 尽管Alfaro拥有超级的防守工具(臂力) 他仍然是个很粗糙的防守员 常常犯下低级的错误造成失误 并有一点徵兆显示这样的情形有加重的倾向 如果他没办法砥砺自己的捕手能力 他的吸引力会愈来愈低 在他防守的技巧改进之前 他无法得到更高的评价 (补充：Alfaro是条子少数几个在升上更高一阶後 各方面都没有明显进步的prospect 其实除了Sickels提到的守备方面的潜力 Alfaro在不管打击、approach甚至走垒方面 都还有充足的发展空间 但明年这几样若没有一两样有更进一步的发挥 别的不说 光守备方面没进展 Alfaro很可能就要被迫转守外野 他的价值就会大大降低) 6) Luis Ortiz, RHP, Grade B/Borderline B-: Age 19, 2014 first-round pick, 1.77 ERA with 19/6 K/BB in 20 innings in pro debut between rookie ball and Low-A. Can hit mid-90s, good slider, some measure of command for a young pitcher, another potential number three starter who can advance very quickly. 今年第一轮选进的投手 在RK和A-共投了20局 19/6 K/BB和1.77防御率 速球来到95、96 不错的滑球和一点年轻选手少有的command(掌控各球种的能力) 另一个有三号先发潜力的投手 有机会快速窜升 7) Luke Jackson, RHP, Grade B-: Age 23, strong in Double-A (3.02 ERA, 83/24 K/BB in 83 innings, just 58 hits) but undone in Triple-A (10.35 ERA, 43/28 K/BB in 40 innings, 56 hits). Seen by many as a future reliever due to erratic secondary pitches but a mid-90s fastball. 在2A投出可靠成绩 但3A成绩随即破灭 因为不稳定的第二球种 再搭上mid-90的速球 许多人因此将他的未来定位在牛棚 (但是是强力牛 high set-up man or low closer) 8) Lewis Brinson, OF, Grade B-: Age 20, superb athlete hit .335/.405/.579 in 164 at-bats in Low-A but just .246/.307/.350 in 183 at-bats in High-A, better pitching exposing the holes in his aggressive approach and swing mechanics. Impressive defensively so they will be patient with the bat. Could develop into an All-Star if the hitting comes along, or a fifth outfielder if it doesn ’t. 借用awano大的用法 "超级体能怪" 在A打得不错 但在A+ 面对更好的投手暴露了他太过躁进的打击缺陷和挥棒机制 但杰出的守备表现让球队愿意等待他的打击 当打击发挥出来时 他就能成为明星球员 若没有 就会只是个五号外野 9) Nick Williams, OF, Grade B-: Age 21, hit .292/.343/.491 with 13 homers, 19 walks, 117 strikeouts in 377 at-bats in High-A. Overmatched late in Double-A, .226/.250/.290 with 21 strikeouts, two walks in 62 at-bats. Solid or better tools, not as good with the glove as Brinson and older, suffers from similar and rather extreme approach issues. All-Star upside, Triple-A failure downside. 在A+缴出377打数 292/343/491 外加13轰的成绩 但在球季後期升上2A後遭受到了挫折 和Brinson一样都是toolsy的外野手 有多项50或更好的工具 但比起Brinson少了点手套 却多了点年纪 而且遭受到与Brinson类似不过更严重的approach问题 乐观的养成会是明星外野手 不乐观的情况则是另一个3A失败例子 10) Corey Knebel, RHP, Grade B-: Age 23, former University of Texas power arm acquired from the Tigers, major league closer potential if his elbow is OK: he was shut down early with a strained ligament. Ready to contribute if healthy. 因为韧带紧绷而提早关机 已经准备好上大联盟 只要健康且手肘疑虑减除 Knebel有成为终结者的潜力 11) Ryan Rua, OF-INF, Grade B-/Borderline C+: Age 24, doesn’t look like a fluke at this point, should be a solid contributor who can hit .260-.270 with some power, defensive versatility, should have a better career than some guys with better tools but less refinement. 目前Rua的表现不像只是fluke 他可以扎实地提供.260-.270的打击率外加一些长打 而且可以担任多个守位 比起一些天赋较好但缺乏活用的家伙 Rua有可能拥有更好的职业生涯 12) Delino DeShields, OF, Grade C+/Borderline B-: Age 22, selected by Rangers in 2014 Rule 5 draft from Astros, former first round pick hit .236/.346/.360 with 11 homers, 61 walks, 54 steals in Double-A. Erratic but talented and still young, I think this was a great gamble for Texas to take. 今年rule 5由太空人选到的新秀 2014在2A缴出236/346/360 11轰 54盗的成绩 不稳定但充满天赋而且也还年轻 对条子而言是个很不错的赌注 ANALYST NOTE: From this point on, the rankings are very nebulous: you could order the C+ guys in a hundred different ways with valid logic behind each decision. This should be seen as a tier approach and not an exact hard-and-fast ranking. 分析：从这里开始 排名将变得没这麽确切 你可以选择将这些取得C+评价的新秀 藉由各种不同角度切入而合理排列 因为这个层级的新秀彼此实力都很接近 所以排名也并非绝对不可颠覆的 13) Luis Sardinas, INF, Grade C+: Age 21, defense-first contact hitter batted .261/.303/.313 in 115 at-bats in major league debut. That’s exactly what should be expected for a while, but he could improve on that as he matures. 防守第一contact取向的游击手 今年大联盟初登场缴出261/303/313的成绩 那确实就是目前的Sardinas可以期待的样貌 但当他更加成熟时 他能够缴出更杰出的表现 14) Travis Demeritte, 2B, Grade C+: Age 20, hit .211/.310/.450 with 25 homers, 50 walks, 171 strikeouts in 398 at-bats in Low-A. Tremendous bat speed and power, but another very aggressive young Texas hitter with contact issues. 今年在A缴出211/310/450 25轰 171被三振的成绩 有着巨大的挥棒速度和力量 但又是另一个太躁进的条子年轻打者 带有击球方面的疑虑 15) Josh Morgan, INF, Grade C+: Age 19, 2014 third round pick, outstanding contact hitting skills with .322/.436/.347 line in pro debut, superior plate discipline. However, he lacks power and hit just three doubles and one triple. If you could combine his approach with Demeritte’s thump you’d have a hell of a player. 今年选秀第三轮选进 非常杰出的击球技巧 职业第一年缴出322/436/347 优秀的好球带辨识能力 但是非常缺乏长打 今年只有三支二垒安和一支三垒安 如果可以结合Morgan的approach和Demeritte的强力挥棒 就可以得到一个天杀的球员 (补充：approach是一个很难翻译的名词 包含的意涵很多很杂 又可以分为物理面和心理面 物理面是指一个打者对於各种球种的挥击掌握能力 心理层面则包括了球种辨识、各球数下的击球策略等) 16) Alec Asher, RHP, Grade C+: Age 23, posted 3.80 ERA with 122/32 K/BB in 154 innings in Double-A, 139 hits. Should move up to Triple-A with big league trial in the offing if he pitches well. Throws strikes, quality of stuff varies from start to start, could max out as a number three starter if he maintains his peak velocities or wind up as a 12th man if he doesn’t. 今年在2A投了154局 3.8的防御率加上近4的K/BB 明年应该要升上3A 而且 如果表现不错的话 应该能赢得上大联盟的经验 能投好球 稳定展现优质的stuff 如果能维持状况好时的球速 他可以成为三号先发 不然就是投手第十二人(通常在大联盟上下的牛棚投手或紧急先发) 17) Michael De Leon, SS, Grade C+: Sleeper Alert, age 17, hit .244/.302/.295 with 28 walks, 40 strikeouts in 336 at-bats in Low-A plus a one-game emergency promotion to Double-A in which he went 1-for-3 with a double. That’ s not a great overall season line, but he was only seventeen years old and made the jump to full-season baseball without any intervening rookie ball experience at all. Signed in 2013, and unusually reliable defensively for his age. Physical tools aren’t spectacular, but this guy wouldn’t even be draft-eligible until this coming June and he’s already played one game in Double-A. Very intriguing long-term property. Sleeper(Sickels对於他看好有可能打出爆发成绩球员的称呼) 17岁 今年大部分待在A 打出244/302/295的成绩 正常来说 这样的表现是不及格的 但这出自於一个未在Rookie阶层出赛过 却在A完整出赛的17岁球员 於2013年签约的De Leon 展现出有别於该年龄 令人信赖的防守能力 虽然他并没有特别突出的工具 但这个照理说在今年六月前都还不具备参加选秀资格的家伙 已经在2A有过一场出赛经验 非常有趣的球员 (补充：Sickels整段文字似乎只讲述一件事情...他才17岁！！！ 不过一般球探都认为De Leon的天花板有限 不同於Forbes De Leon没什麽机会长成明星 甚至做为常态先发的可能性也不高 但De Leon有着异於同龄的成熟 不管心理层面或球技上 让他在今年成为AFL历史上 最年轻的出赛球员 而这在游骑兵让他跳过新人阶层 直接上A的情形中也能获得佐证 只是後者也可以解释成球团并没有这麽在意这个新秀就是... 然而就如Sickels所言 他才17岁 也许不该这麽早测量他的天花板...) 18) Ti’Quan Forbes, 3B, Grade C+: Age 18, second round pick this past June from high school in Mississippi, solid-to-excellent tools with speed and throwing arm standing out. Hit .241/.338/.282 in rookie ball with 10 steals in 11 attempts. Some observers project that he’ll hit for average with at least decent power as he matures, but a long way off. 今年第二轮选进的高中生 体能优异 有多项至少50的tools 而其中最杰出的两项是他的脚程跟臂力 今年在新人阶层打出241/338/282的成绩 11次尝试盗垒成功了10次 有说当他成熟的时候 能展现出平均的打击能力和杰出的长打能力 但这还要一段不短的时间 19) Ryan Cordell, OF, Grade C+: Age 22, 11th round pick in 2013 out of Liberty University, hit .318/.385/.530 with 13 homers, 21 steals, 34 walks, 66 strikeouts in 336 at-bats between Low-A and High-A, no slippage between levels. Above-average speed and has power, very good glove, didn’t hit well in college but turned things around last year. If he does this again in Double-A, bump that grade up a notch and jump him up the list. 去年选秀第11轮 今年在A和A+共缴出318/385/530 13轰 21盗的成绩 有着平均水准以上的速度和力量 非常棒的手套 大学时期打得并不好 但情况在今年扭转 若他在2A能维持这样的表现 他的评级将至少上升一个层次 (补充：开季就出现在A球队名单中 Cordell已经让人意外了 还意外打出亮眼的成绩 我个人蛮看好这个球员的 原本就有不错的身材和速度 守备上也偶有惊人表现 今年长打一开窍 马上吸引许多球探的目光 而除了打击以外的四个tools 目前都有平均以上的评价 只要证明他今年展现出的打击并非只是手感好 Cordell的排名就会大幅跃进 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=caJdpK59_g4 长打的展现 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t5W2jcq8Gzc 速度+长打的展现 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TQ3a2oBFeR0 守备以及臂力的展现 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fm_epce7QKA 访谈 长得算是清秀乾净 邻家大男孩fu 只是似乎有些紧张？) 20) Jairo Beras, OF, Grade C+: Age 19, bonus baby did not have impressive season in Low-A (.242/.305/.342) but was jumping to full season ball with little pro experience and may have been suffering after-effects of 2013 hand injury. With $4,500,000 investment, the Rangers will be patient as he tries to refine his tools. 这个在国际自由市场签下的大物 今年在A的表现并不算理想(242/305/342) 但也是得到了完整的季赛经验 而且今年表现也许受到了2013年手伤的影响 条子在他身上投资了4.5M 因此对他会更有耐心些 OTHER GRADE C+ : Lisalverto Bonilla, RHP ; Akeem Bostick, RHP ; Marcos Diplan, RHP ; Andrew Faulkner, LHP ; Ronald Guzman, 1B ; Jose LeClerc, RHP; Keone Kela, RHP ; Tomas Telis, C ; Jose Trevino, C-INF ; Sam Wolff, RHP; Yeyson Yrizarri, SS. You can make a case for each of these C+ guys as high as 14. 你最高可以将这些得到评级C+的潜力新秀排到第14名 GRADE C: Hanser Alberto, SS ; Alex Claudio, LHP ; Jon Edwards, RHP ; Jerad Eickhoff, RHP ; John Fasola, RHP ; Jared Hoying, OF ; Phil Klein, RHP ; Brett Martin, LHP ; Spencer Patton, RHP ; Richelson Pena, RHP ; Luke Tendler, OF ; Derek Thompson, LHP ; Matt West, RHP ; Cole Wiper, RHP Although not as robust as the Cubs system, the Rangers still have one of the deeper farm systems in the game. 虽然不如小熊农场健壮 游骑兵农场依然是最深厚的几个农场之一 Generally renowned for their liking of toolsy players, the Rangers have quietly built the foundations of a strong pitching staff as well. The trade of Joakim Soria to the Tigers brought in Jake Thompson and Corey Knebel, outright theft if they stay healthy. Alex Gonzalez, Luke Jackson, and Alec Asher should be ready to contribute fairly soon, 2014 first-rounder Luis Ortiz may be the best of them all, and there are plenty of lively arms (Bonilla, Kela, LeClerc, Claudio, Edwards, Eickhoff, Faulkner, Klein, Patton, West) ready or nearly ready for trials in the bullpen or back of the rotation. Lower level arms like Bostick, Wolff, sleeper southpaw Derek Thompson, and Wiper provide hope for a strong second wave. 条子以他们喜欢多功能的选手而闻名 同时亦以一群强壮的投手打造为基底 从Soria交易案得到的Thompson和Knebel 只要能够保持健康 简直就是偷到了 而Alex Gonzalez、Luke Jackson和Alec Asher都准备好在不久的将来做出贡献 今年第一轮选来的Luis Ortiz则可能是这群投手中潜力最好的一个 另外还有一堆新鲜的手臂准备好或接近准备好投入牛棚或後段轮值 (Bonilla、Kela、LeClerc、Claudio、Jon Edwards、Eickhoff、Faulkner、Klein、 Spencer Patton和Matt West) 低阶一点的投手像Akeem Bostick、Sam Wolff、另一个sleeper左投Derek Thompson和 Cole Wiper则提供强力的下一波希望 All that said, the core of the Rangers system remains the hitting. Joey Gallo and Nomar Mazara broke away from the rest of the 2013 Hickory Bunch last year. Gallo got most of the attention with his enormous power but Mazara also made substantial progress. Alfaro, Brinson, and Williams all have a shot at becoming major league regulars as well. There’s some strength up the middle (Sardinas, Morgan, De Leon, Yrizarri), The development of Ryan Cordell took some of the sting out of stagnant seasons from Ronald Guzman and Jairo Beras. 总的来说 条子农场的核心还是在打击上 Gallo和Mazara去年最後在A时都有进展 Gallo以他巨大的力量吸引了大多的目光 而Mazara也有实质的进步 Alfaro、Brinson和Williams也都有这个机会成为大联盟常态先发 条子的中线也很强壮(Sardinas、Morgan、De Leon、Yrizarri) Ryan Cordell的发展也弥补了Guzman和Beras进步缓滞的一季 Note that it isn’t all about players with huge bonuses and premier tools: the Rangers have also identified and developed good sleeper, skill-oriented prospects like Ryan Rua and several of the pitching arms. 条子所拥有的潜力新秀并非全是具有巨大潜力和顶级工具的球员 他们亦以开发sleeper和发展技巧性取向的新秀如Ryan Rua及众多投手而闻名 Overall, the Rangers are well-positioned for a quick rebound after a disappointing 2014. 在经历了令人沮丧的2014 目前对游骑兵来说处在了一个能快速反弹的情况 ============================================================================== 先来说说几个近期消息： 1.Matt Harrison的X光检查结果显示他的背部OK 现在就等电脑断层扫描的结果出来了 如果一切正常 他可以在一月时进行投球复健 明年要回到轮值中并非梦想... 等等...这听起来是不是有点熟悉？ 因为去年的Harrison也经历了类似的情况... 2.前阵子从金莺那捡来的左投Scott Barnes 被条子放进让渡名单後被蓝鸟捡走了 也因此 Barnes来到了休季後待的第四支球队(一直拍大头照应该也只能苦笑了...) 3.Ben Rowen因为藤川的来临而遭到游骑兵释出 这位投球姿势独特的下钩侧投牛应该会吸引其他球队的兴趣 接下来是原po的碎碎念 不喜者请End 首先 在众多农场排名纷纷推出後 条子农场的排名也可以推个大概了 除了双城、小熊的农场明显胜过我们的之外 不论top prospect的数量还是深度 都少有其他球队能与我们匹敌 所以今年季末我们的农场若没有前三 也非常有机会在前五之列 更令人兴奋的一点是 随着我们拥有的这些高天分高风险的新秀大都往正确方向发展的情况下 明年条子的农场实力很有机会更往前迈进 而观察迄今的几个排名 可以发现几件事情 Mazara的表现让他的排名合理地大幅跃进 Ryan Rua在大联盟的第一年表现和Josh Morgan职业初登场使他们的评价 比起季中增加了不少 Soria交易後Thompson稳定的表现让这笔交易愈来愈像条子成功的一偷 ... 回到这份排名上 有几个疑问还是应该被提出 在Alfaro不能证明会离开捕手位置的情况下 2A样本数少於Alfaro许多的Mazara真的能理所当然排在Alfaro前面吗? 而尽管tools相似 甚至Brinson的守备能力更被看好 且Brinson更为年轻 遇到的问题似乎也比较轻微一些 他也不该排在Williams的前面 因为比起Brinson Williams已经证明A+的投手对他不造成威胁 而Brinson则否 基本上像Gallo这样的A tier球员 不管最後养得如何 球队都会让他上到大联盟 主要的原因是他们已经至少有足够的实力挤掉一票在大联盟上下的球员了 以Gallo为例 光是power就值得让他上大联盟一试 有人问过我 那为什麽不直接让他们上来就好了呢？ 他们的实力不是早已足够挤掉一票人了吗？ 理由其实不难理解 因为在大联盟 球队唯一的目标就是赢球 相较於小联盟 球队的战绩根本不重要 竞争的压力本来就不可同日而语 於是在小联盟 prospect可以一球一球地修正自己的问题 不必在意自己的成绩跟球队的战绩 这种情形不太可能发生在大联盟 所以一旦未成熟的prospect被拉上大联盟後 你很难期待他会爆发出原本小联盟没有的能力 更常出现的反而是就此停滞不前 而这种提早将prospect拉上来的情形就是我们俗称的rush 然而rush的结果并非全是糟糕的 像今年我们就不得已rush了一个顶级新秀 照原本的养成计画 Rougned Odor今年大部分的时间应该还是在小联盟渡过 如果真是如此 那现在排名农场第一的新秀就可能是Odor 而不一定是Gallo 然而条子高阶中线的贫乏让这位仅在2A出赛62场的新秀必须提早面对大联盟 尽管如此 这样的结果对Odor来说并不能说是不好的 事实上 以一个仅20岁的新秀而言 他所展现的能力让人对他的未来充满了想像 当然Odor还需要让自己的守备更稳定 并且精进跑垒的观念 不过他现阶段提供的火力 以一个中线球员来说已经足够了 现在想起来 当初在决定让Profar守二垒後 因为在条子看不到未来 Odor曾经被提及当作交易的包裹 只能庆幸那时没有急着做出交易的决定 至於Profar 他有机会在明年开季不久後就归队 如果条子需要借重他的攻击能力 就必须清出一个位置给他 比较简单的方法就是让他担任DH 但是这样感觉太浪费了 基於Odor几乎二垒限定 而Beltre守备能力退化不少的情形下 如果伤後臂力允许 或许让Profar守三垒 Beltre转一垒或DH是个可以考虑的选择 ... 最後附上一篇目前美联西区排名预测文 http://outsidepitchmlb.com/2014/12/22/american-league-west-predictions/ 我们有可能会再补一个轮值 不过2015年的开季并不需要太过於期待 在明星赛後Martin Perez 或许加上Harrison的归队 以及Alex Gonzalez、Keon Kela等新秀上来加深投手强度 还有健康的Profar在打线上面的帮忙 那时的条子或许就会变得颇有竞争力 不过整体而言2015都还是别抱太多期待 主要还是以确定未来主力和各别位置的先发为比较可能的方向 真正的重头戏应该会是2016... -- --

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