作者jameshu0910 (Buchy)
看板Prospect
标题[情报] Min Twins Top 20 Prospects for 2013
时间Mon Oct 29 22:15:34 2012
http://ppt.cc/yJL8
(1)
Miguel Sano, 3B, Grade A- : I think he will be a monster power hitter.
Questions about defense persist, and we'll have to see what his batting
average looks like, but I am optimistic that he will make the necessary
adjustments as he moves up.
(2) Oswaldo Arcia, OF,Grade B+: Another masher. Upside isn't quite at Sano's
level, but he'll be ready sooner. Venezuelan Jason Kubel.
(3) Byron Buxton, OF, Grade B+: Would rank ahead of Arcia on pure tools, but
Buxton has enough rough edges for me to put Arcia ahead at this point.
Tremendous speed/power combination but probably four-five years away. Will
battle Sano for top ranking entering 2014.
(4) Aaron Hicks, OF, Grade B: Substantial progress refining his hitting skills
last year, tapping into his power more readily. Patience, speed, defense are
also assets. Broader skill base than Arcia, but bat isn't as potent.
(5) Eddie Rosario, 2B-OF, Grade B: A personal favorite, should hit for
average, draw walks, and produce moderate power. Not sure he sticks at second
base. Plays with intensity.
(6) Kyle Gibson, RHP, Grade B: This assumes the reports out of the Arizona
Fall League are accurate. Appears fully recovered from Tommy John, throwing
hard like he did before injuries began hampering him in '09.
(7) Jose Berrios, RHP, Grade B: One of my favorite pitchers from the 2012
draft. Throws hard, throws strikes, good secondary pitches, nice delivery,
athletic and strong, good makeup. Complete package. Just needs innings.
(8) Max Kepler, OF, Grade B: German outfielder took huge step forward, tapping
into his power and maintaining his plate discipline. Transition to
full-season ball might be a challenge but I'm optimistic that the progress is
real.
(9) Travis Harrison, 3B, Grade B-: He probably doesn't stay at third base, but
the bat looks promising to me. Reports from Appy League are oddly subdued,
but he mashed in high school and has mashed as a pro so far. Gets the benefit
of the doubt right now.
(10) Mason Melotakis, LHP, Grade B-: One of several lively relief arms drafted
in 2012.
(11) Luke Bard, RHP, Grade B-: Impressive fastball/slider combination. Bard
and Melotakis have the most complete packages of the large group of relievers
the Twins drafted in 2012.
(12) Joe Benson, OF, Grade C+: At this point the placement on the list becomes
problematic, with slots 12 through 20 being plausibly ordered in many
different ways. Benson's tools (power, speed, defense) continue to stand out.
The grade is generous but I'm willing to write off his poor '12 season due to
injuries. He really needs to take a step forward in '13, given the
outfielders coming up behind him.
(13) Jorge Polanco, 2B-SS, Grade C+: Big bonus ($750,000) signee from
Dominican Republic in 2009 took a huge step forward with strong season for
Elizabethton thanks to better strength and physical maturity. Very good with
the glove at second base.
(14) Niko Goodrum, SS, Grade C+: Made incremental progress refining his tools.
Needs to take a step forward in '13 as he moves up to full-season baseball
after two years in the Appy League.
(15) J.T. Chargois, RHP, Grade C+: Another relief arm from 2012 draft, has
closer potential (as do Bard and Melotakis) and should move through system
rapidly.
(16) Zack Jones, RHP, Grade C+: Another bullpen prospect from 2012 draft,
performed well at Beloit and touched 100 MPH in instructional league, though
secondary pitches need some work.
(17) Michael Tonkin, RHP, Grade C+: Another relief prospect whiffed 97 in just
69 innings in A-ball this year due to improved command of 92-95 MPH fastball
and nasty slider. Pitching well in Arizona Fall League.
(18) Adam Walker, OF, Grade C+: Outstanding raw power, also a skilled
basestealer with good overall tools. Strikeout rate is very high, and
questions about contact are enough for me to be cautious with the grade until
we see him at higher levels.
(19) D.J. Baxendale, RHP, Grade C+: Excellent pro debut, polished, would rank
higher if he threw harder, but knows how to pitch and will make short work of
A-ball.
(20) Nate Roberts, OF, Grade C+: Has been held back by injuries and was old
for the Midwest League, but has a smooth swing, excellent plate discipline,
can swipe a base, and is tearing up the Arizona Fall League.
(21) Corey Williams, LHP, Grade C+: Another relief prospect features plus
stuff from left side, still working to refine command, extremely tough on
left-handed hitters.
OTHERS TO CONSIDER: A.J. Achter, RHP; Hudson Boyd, RHP; David Bromberg, RHP;
Tyler Duffey, RHP; Deolis Guerra, RHP; B.J. Hermsen, RHP; Chris Herrmann, C;
Pedro Hernandez, LHP; Tyler Jones, RHP; Felix Jorge, RHP; Austin Malinowski,
LHP; Angel Mata, RHP; Levi Michael, INF; Amaurys Minier, SS; Josue Montanez,
LHP; Josmil Pinto; C; Bruce Pugh, RHP; Taylor Rogers, LHP; Daniel Santana,
SS: Caleb Thielbar, LHP; Kennys Vargas, 1B; Jason Wheeler, LHP; Alex Wimmers,
RHP.
The Twins have the makings of a strong offensive core here. Arcia and Hicks
should get outfield trials soon, and Benson still has the tools to make a
difference if he can shake off an injury-plagued '12.
Top prospect Sano has some of the best power in the minors, and Eddie Rosario
simply knows how to play baseball. Harrison, Kepler, the underrated Polanco,
Walker, and tool-laden Niko Goodrum should be providing some thunder in the
Low-A lineup in 2013. Uber-toolsy Byron Buxton may end up being the best of
the lot, but I want to see how he does in full-season ball before pushing him
completely ahead of the guys with more proven track records.
If you are looking only at pure tools, put Buxton first. But a list that
balances tools and performance, like this one, requires some compromises.
Also keep an eye on first baseman Kennys Vargas, a switch-hitter with power
and a good performance record at the lower levels, but with a problematic
glove and a PED suspension on the books. Amaurys Minier is a big-bonus
switch-hitter with power from the Dominican Republic, but at age 16 it's
tough to grade him until we see how those tools actually pan out in games.
On the pitching side, Kyle Gibson looks fully recovered from Tommy John and
ready to contribute in '13. Perhaps snakebit Alex Wimmers will be able to say
the same thing in 12 months. There is a ton of bullpen fodder here, with a
large group of impressive relievers from the 2012 draft. The system needs
more starting pitchers, but other than Gibson the only one who really stands
out is Jose Berrios. I love that guy, and the Grade B might very well be too
low.
Overall, while the organization has problems, the system looks better than I
thought it would when I started the process. The Twins need more starting
pitchers, infielders, and catchers, but there are many interesting hitters,
considerable outfield depth, and intriguing material for the bullpen.
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