http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=695 Not That Rule, The One Before It by Bryan Smith While I have spent the last couple weeks immersed in the players eligible for the Rule 5 Draft, someone reminded me today: baseball schedules its Rule 5 and Rule 4 drafts almost exactly six months apart. The Rule 4 Draft, is you recall, is the June Amateur draft. Just between us, it’s the more exciting of the two. So with the Rule 5 draft behind us — but as an aside, it was a very surprising draft. I loved the Capellan and Crabbe selections, hate that Lindsay wasn’t taken, and I’ll let KG take it from there — let’s turn the page on potential 2008 role players, and look instead at potential 2011 superstars. With every free agency signing the 2008 draft board changes, with one exception: the top ten is set in stone (and in the same order as the Rule 5). So, for fun, let’s start our 2008 draft coverage there. 1. Tampa Bay Rays: Pedro Alvarez, 3b/1b, Vanderbilt Pedro is still the class of this draft, but the top high schoolers closed the gap over the summer. You can bet Alvarez is going to have some huge bonus demands — if he regresses at all as a junior (like Matt Wieters did), Tampa will explore other options. In the end, though, this should be their guy. He could be great at first and probably even work in right, and he’ll be the best bat in their lineup at some point. 2. Pittsburgh Pirates: Tim Beckham, ss, Georgia HS I decided to go with Beckham here because, if the Pirates new scouting department is PR-savvy, they will not draft another pitcher next season. Pittsburgh fans were livid with the Daniel Moskos pick this year, and while Brian Matusz might be worth it, I’m guessing he’ll be priced out of Pittsburgh. Beckham isn’t second on my board, but he’ll stick at shortstop and offers “Face of the Organization” pipedreams that organizations value. 3. Kansas City Royals: Tim Melville, rhp, Missouri HS Kansas City is guaranteed to have some good PR at draft time next June, because in all likelihood, both of the draft’s star Missouri right-handers — high school Melville and collegiate Aaron Crow — will be available. Of the two, I think you have to go with Melville; he has a better pitcher’s body, better secondary stuff, and a longer history of plus velocity. 4. Baltimore Orioles: Brian Matusz, lhp, San Diego Peter Angelos showed a commitment to the draft last June, drafting and paying top dollar for the best available player — Matt Wieters. Here’s to hoping it was a trend pick, and when Matusz’ salary demands drop him out of the top 3, the Orioles snatch him. He’s a three-pitch lefty with a nasty change, good command and a great body of work. 5. San Francisco Giants: Justin Smoak, 1b, South Carolina Either Smoak or Eric Hosmer, or both, is going to be available when the Giants draft next June. Both are good bets to be fantastic pro hitters and the Giants haven’t had a good pro hitting prospect, beside current third baseman Angel Villalona, in a decade. The fit is there; the Giants should draft one of these players. For now, I’ll say Smoak hits 20 home runs next spring and becomes the guy. 6. Florida Marlins: Gerrit Cole, rhp, California HS The top high school right-handers next season all have ace potential, but Cole is the pitcher with the nastiest stuff. Here’s to guessing he touches 90 mph with his slider next spring, and in the process, gets some outside mention to go 1-1. He’s a bit raw for there, but at six, the Marlins would have their best pitching prospect since Josh Beckett. 7. Cincinnati Reds: Harold Martinez, ss, Florida HS I know scouting director Chris Buckley would much rather take a college player here, but I think this is still a little early for my Cape boys, Yonder Alonso and Aaron Crow. Instead, the Reds will again look to take an intelligent high school player, leaving them between Hosmer and Martinez. Of the two, tie has to go to the shortstop with the presence of Joey Votto already in the system. 8. Chicago White Sox: Eric Hosmer, 1b, Florida HS It’s a perfect fit: the White Sox trade Chris Carter at the Winter Meetings, but six months later, draft his replacement as Paul Konerko’s successor in Chicago. White Sox fans will complain that a first baseman isn’t the type of high ceiling pick they brought new director Doug Laumann in to draft, but Hosmer’s combination of power potential and defense disagree. 9. Washington Nationals: Aaron Crow, rhp, Missouri If there is a divide in philosophies between Mike Rizzo and scouting director Dana Brown in Washington, they handled it in 2007 as follows: spend the first round pick on a high-upside Missouri college pitcher. Why not try it again in 2008? Crow was a 5-10 round guy before the Cape Cod League, but his velocity got better with every start, and now he’s a top ten overall favorite after touching 99 mph in his last start. 10. Houston Astros: Kyle Skipworth, c, California HS New S.D. Bobby Heck will need to make a splash in his first draft, as Houston ’s farm system has reached a pretty bad low. I’m guessing, as a disciple of Jack Zduriencik, Heck might also lean towards the high school side. On that end, the highest upside player available here is Skipworth, who while still raw, is sure to stick behind the plate and offers big power potential. This would be admitting they made a mistake on Max Sapp, but since they did, might as well start fresh. Indiana hurler Alex Bubba Meyer would be my second guess. -- 用这篇灌水可以吗?:x --

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