Pistons hold 3 second-round picks – what’s the likelihood they’ll keep all of them? 活塞今年有三支二轮签─他们把三只签都留下来自己用的机率有多高? https://reurl.cc/MAmk3n 作者: Keith Langlois 发文日期: 美国日期 7/22 (这篇随便翻~只是觉得这篇跟新的一篇加起来算是一整篇故事这样) The Pistons began the NBA’s 2020-21 business year with zero second-round picks and emerged from it with three. The likelihood of them actually exercising all three of them a week from tonight when the NBA draft goes down? Probably somewhere around the NBA’s collective 3-point percentage, 36.7 percent. Maybe lower than that. 去年开季时，活塞在这次选秀还一支二轮签都没有，现在有三条。那三支签都留着自己 用的机率有多高咧? 大概跟NBA整体的三分命中率差不多吧─36.7%，或者更低。 And the likelihood of the Pistons carrying four drafted rookies on their roster next season as they did last? Practically nil. 那像去年那样，带着四只小菜鸟来打下一季的机率咧? 不可能啦~ They won’t have the roster space, almost certainly. Of the few spots available, one will certainly go to the player the Pistons draft with the No. 1 pick next week and one or two more to veteran free agents signed to fill specific needs and better balance the roster from both a skills and experience standpoint. 首先，阵容人数空间就几乎肯定不够了。对於目前还有的位置，至少有一支要给今年状 元，还有一两张椅子给有经验的自由球员，来打造不论是技能还是经验都更平衡的阵容 。 There’s nothing unusual about teams engaging in draft-night trades that see second-round picks flipped elsewhere. The second-rounders the Pistons hold currently came from Brooklyn in the Bruce Brown trade, from New York in the Derrick Rose trade and from Sacramento in the Delon Wright trade. Their own second-round pick was traded on draft night two years ago. 在选秀日那天，看到二轮签在不同球队之间飞来飞去就是一个正常。活塞这次的三支签 ，一支是透过Bruce Brown的交易从篮网手上拿到，一支是Rose的交易从尼克那儿来，一 支是Delon Wright的交易从国王来。至於自己的那支签两年前就送出去了。 It says something about the fungibility of second-round picks that none of the three incoming are originally picks from the Pistons’ trade partner. The Brooklyn pick comes from Toronto and will be 37th overall. The New York pick belonged to Charlotte and will be 42nd overall. The Sacramento pick was routed from the Los Angeles Lakers and will be 52nd overall. 这三支签，也不是这三场交易球队自己原本的签，说明了二轮签的高度可替代性。篮网 的签是暴龙的37号签，尼克的是黄蜂的42号签，国王的是湖人的52号签。 (看得都头晕好吗) Historically, picks in the 30s yield two or three players from most drafts that wind up having long, successful NBA careers. Since 2009, the Pistons have drafted a number of players in the 30s who made a mark. Khris Middleton, the 39th pick in 2012 who helped Milwaukee to the 2021 NBA title and will join the United States Olympic team in Tokyo, stands out. The Pistons had to throw him in as the sweetener in the 2013 exchange of point guards that sent Brandon Knight to the Bucks for Brandon Jennings. 从NBA的历史来看，30几顺位的球员大概有两三个可以在联盟里混得不错。2009年以来， 活塞选的30几顺位球员中最让人有印象的就是才帮公鹿拿到金盃然後正在东京好热(X)奥 运(O)的蜜豆汤(2012-39顺位)。他在2013年就被打包到公鹿去换来建宁公主。 Other players the Pistons drafted in the 30s since then include Jonas Jerebko (39, 2009), Kyle Singler (33, 2011) and Spencer Dinwiddie (38, 2014). The list of players they’ve drafted in the 30s since then who had little to no NBA impact includes DaJuan Summers (35, 2009), Terrico White (36, 2010), Tony Mitchell (37, 2013), Darrun Hilliard (38, 2015) and Khyri Thomas (38, 2019). 其他在30几顺位的球员包括Jerebko(2009-39)、Kyle Singler(2011-33)和丁威迪(2014 -38)。其他让人几乎没印象的还有...(实在太没印象我就不列了...) Rookie Deividas Sirvydis, the 37th pick in 2019, had a strong finish to the 2020-21 season and Saben Lee, the 38th pick in 2020, is part of the group Pistons general manager Troy Weaver calls the “core four” along with 2020 first-rounders Killian Hayes, Isaiah Stewart and Saddiq Bey. 2019年37顺位的Sirvydis在上个赛季有个不错的收尾，2020年38顺位的Saben Lee则是已 经被Weaver指定为球队的"核心四人"(Hayes、Stewart、Bey)。 The deeper you get into the second round, generally, the longer the odds of finding a player who sticks and leaves a mark. Brown was the 42nd pick in 2018 and should stir some interest on the free-agent market this summer. The only other players the Pistons have drafted since 2009 in the 40s were Kim English (44, 2012) and Michael Gbinije (49, 2016). 二轮选秀再往後去，要找到能够在NBA生存的球员就更少了。Bruce Brown是2018年42顺 位，而他看起来是今年夏天会有球队有兴趣的自由球员。2009年以来，活塞是还有选两 个40几顺位的球员啦。 The 2014 draft had an interesting four-player run that began with the Pistons ’ selection of Dinwiddie, whose college season had ended with a January knee injury that caused him to slide. The next three players taken have all gone on to meaningful to spectacular NBA careers: Jerami Grant at 39, Glenn Robinson III at 40 and reigning MVP Nikola Jokic at 41. The four players who went immediately ahead of them: Cleanthony Early, Jarnell Stokes, Johnny O’ Bryant and DeAndre Daniels. Yeah, it’s a crapshoot. 2014的二轮选秀有一段很有趣的顺序，从38顺位的丁丁开始，那年大学他的膝盖中了一 箭导致顺位下滑，接下来39到41分别是Jeremi Grant、Glen Robinson III和Nikola Jokic(我小丑啦)。这几个球员後来的表现大超车了他们前面的三个球员。(还真没印象) In the 50s, it’s pretty much throwing darts. The Pistons have drafted 10 players in the 50s since 2000 and the only one who enjoyed a fruitful NBA career was Amir Johnson, the 58th pick in 2005 – the last draft for high school players to be eligible. Johnson had signed with Louisville but was ruled academically ineligible, pushing him to enter the draft. 到了50几顺位，基本上就是在射飞镖啦。2000年以来，活塞选了10个在这个顺位范围的 球员，只有一个人打得还不错─2005年58顺位的Amir Johnson。那是最後一年高中选秀 。Johnson本来要去Louisville大学，但结果学业成绩太差，只好直接参加选秀。 So if the expectation is that the Pistons aren’t going to draft three players they intend to be part of the 2021-22 roster, what are the possibilities? They could trade one or more picks for future second-rounders, an option that grows in appeal given the fact the Pistons have traded all of their second-round picks through 2027, though they have picks coming from elsewhere in both 2023 and ’24. 所以如果活塞没有要留着自用，那这些二轮签怎办?看来至少会交易掉至少一支签，来交 换未来的二轮签，毕竟活塞接下来一直到2027年的二轮签都已经送人了。阿不过2023和 2024都还有从别人家那儿来的签。 The pick at 37 could probably yield two future second-rounders. That was the price the Pistons paid to acquire the 38th pick two years ago from Philadelphia, using it for Thomas.The Pistons could also use the pick and sign that player to a two-way contract as they did with Lee last season. The pick at 42 could also yield two future second-round picks, perhaps, though it ’s a little less certain of its value given the typical cutoff range for expected outcomes at that point of the draft. 37顺位签大概价值两支未来二轮签，这是两年前活塞从76人交换来38号签(Khyri Thomas) 的价码。或是把这支签选来的球员签一张双向合约，今年跟Lee的合约就是这样签的。42 号签也有机会换到两支未来的签，但就比较不确定了，因为这个顺位选到的球员，堪用 和丢水里的机率就差不多是一半一半了。 Another possibility is to use at least one of the picks on an international player who would continue to play overseas and develop rather than immediately occupying a precious roster spot for 2021-22. But the ranks got thinned last week with several prospects withdrawing from the draft. Among them were a handful or more who were projected anywhere from the late first round into the 50s: Roko Prkacin, Carlos Alocen, Malcolm Cazalon, Olek Balcerowski, Ibou Badji and Gabriele Procida. 另一个可能是把其中一支签拿来选国际球员，然後让他继续放洋，这样又能达到球员养 成，又不会占用阵容空间。但是今年几个看起来比较有潜力的球员都纷纷退出选秀，所 以采用这个做法的机率就变低了。 We’ll take a look at some of the players remaining in the draft as potential second-round prospects next week. 下周再来看看还留在今年选秀中，可能在二轮被选中的球员有哪些。 ------- 昨天晚上本来以为作者要放羊了，结果刚刚下班回家看到他发了新的二轮选秀讨论文。 等等接着这篇再放上啊。 --

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