John Hollinger分析上季的活塞 预测本季的活塞 http://tinyurl.com/4zams7 By John Hollinger ESPN.com 2007-08 Recap It seems that the more things change in Detroit, the more they stay the same. Each of the past three seasons began with the Pistons vowing that this time it would be different: They would play with more urgency in the playoffs; Rasheed Wallace wouldn't melt down at inappropriate times; they would regain the title they won so impressively in 2004. 每年都说会不一样，Sheed不会在不适当的时候自我溶解，他们会再拿下冠军。 Each year, the Pistons glided through the regular season with nary an injury while posting one of the best records in basketball, and cruised into the conference finals looking like a legitimate championship contender. 每年季赛都没伤兵，拿下联盟最佳的战绩之一，看起来很像冠军。 And each year, their season has ended with a Game 6 defeat in the conference finals. Last season was the first of the three in which they weren't favored, and in some respects that might have been the most worrying: This time, nobody was surprised when Detroit bowed out. 每年都在分区冠军第六战结束。去年是唯一不被看好的一年，但这次没人感到意外了。 Of course, nobody was surprised that they were in the conference finals either -- probably because it was their sixth straight appearance, a jaw-dropping standard of excellence that has been given too little credit because only one resulted in a championship. No, they don't have the rings, but the Pistons are rapidly becoming the Atlanta Braves of basketball, establishing a remarkable feat of year-to-year consistency. 只能拿冠军，所以大家给予的肯定太少了。活塞也愈来愈像篮球界的亚特兰大勇士队。 Last season the formula for pre-May success was a familiar one -- a slow-paced, high-efficiency team that didn't screw up, shot lots of jumpers and played great defense. 上季五月前活塞的胜利方程式还是一样的-慢速高效率的球队，很多跳投，而且防守非常 优异。 Detroit ranked fourth in defensive efficiency, and as a unit it has lost surprisingly little since four-time Defensive Player of the Year Ben Wallace departed two seasons ago. The only difference from the Pistons' long-term trend line was that they fouled much more than in previous seasons -- opponents averaged .328 free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt, the league's 10th-highest figure. Blame that on the exuberance of youth: While the Pistons' starting five fouled as infrequently as ever, the reserves saw heavy use last season and were much more willing to hack away. 在防守效率上活塞排第四。本季活塞和前几季唯一的不同是犯规变多了，变成联盟第 十高，可以算是年轻球员的错。先发五人犯规次数还是很少，但上季板凳用得多了。 Fortunately, the foul line was about the only place to get points on the Pistons. They ranked third in field-goal defense, 3-point defense and opponent true shooting percentage; in each case, the Celtics and Rockets were the only teams ahead of them. One reason was their shot-blocking -- Detroit turned back 7.57 percent of opponents' offerings, the highest rate in basketball. This fact was lost in the shuffle a bit since two teams had more total blocked shots, but once you account for the Pistons' turtle-like pace, they were easily the best. 罚球线也是对手遇上活塞时唯一可以得分的地方。在防守field-goal、三分球和对手 实际命中率上活塞排行第三。但在火锅上活塞排第一，对手有百分之7.57的球会被活 塞扒掉。 Rasheed Wallace and Jason Maxiell were the team leaders in raw blocks, but the other difference-makers in Detroit's total were Amir Johnson and Theo Ratliff -- both of whom posted prodigious shot-block totals in limited playing time. Johnson in particular was awesome, sending back a shot every nine minutes. 虽然Sheed和Maxy是队上火锅手，但Amir和Ratliff的火锅效率才惊人，尤其Amir平均 九分钟会送出一客锅。 Offensively, what stood out about the Pistons was how long they held the ball and how rarely they gave it away. The Pistons played the league's slowest pace, mostly because they didn't get out and run much on offense, but also because at the defensive end they were rarely out of position and gambled infrequently -- thus requiring opponents to beat them with half-court execution. 进攻上活塞持球时间久，掉球机会也很罕见。活塞是联盟中进攻速度最慢的球队除了 因为他们进攻的跑动不多外，也因为他们的防守很到位。 Inevitably, Detroit has been misunderstood because of its slow pace. The Pistons have been viewed as a tough, defensive team for the past few years because they're always among the top three teams in points allowed; conversely, their offense hasn't been valued as highly because of its middling status in the league tables. But look at things on a per-possession basis, and the Pistons' offense has been nearly as effective as the defense in the three seasons under Flip Saunders -- a key difference between this Detroit era and the Larry Brown teams. 也因为活塞的步调慢导致进攻被误解。除了是支防守强队外，在老桑带领的三个球季 活塞的进攻效率的防守是差不多的。这是和布朗爷的时候很重要的不同。 In 2007-08, Detroit finished eighth in the league in offensive efficiency, with a game-plan predicated on taking more shots than opponents. It might not seem that way given their methodical offense, but the Pistons were a low-mistake offensive team that took lots of midrange jumpers and made a concerted effort to rebound the misses. 活塞在上季的进攻效率是联盟第八，也是最少犯错，偏爱中距离跳投且努力挣抢进攻 篮板的进攻球队。 The Pistons actually were a hair below the league average in TS% at 53.9, so just relying on their shooting wasn't the ticket. The entire reason they were able to succeed was that, per possession, they took more shots than any team in the league. Detroit had the league's third-lowest turnover rate, making miscues on 12.9 percent of their trips, and the sixth-best offensive rebound rate at 29.4 percent. 活塞在每次球权的出手数高於联盟其他球队。失误比率是联盟第三低，进攻篮板比率 也是联盟第六名。 Add those two items together and the Pistons were the league's only team to average more than one shot per possession (counting a free-throw attempt as 0.44 of a "shot"); in turn, that advantage alone was the reason their offense was so effective (see chart). 把失误比和进攻篮板加进去算的话活塞是联盟唯一平均每次球权多於一次出手数的球 队。 Most Shots Per 100 possessions, 2007-08 TEAM TO Rate Off. Reb. Rate Shots* per 100 possessions Detroit 12.8 29.4 100.24 Golden State 13.0 27.2 99.56 New Orleans 12.9 27.0 99.51 Cleveland 15.0 30.4 99.31 Washington 14.2 28.9 99.02 League average 14.8 26.7 96.96 Shots = FGA + (FTA * 0.44) Unfortunately, the offense melted down at the worst possible time -- a 13-point fourth quarter in Game 6 against Boston -- as Detroit was eliminated. Once again, Wallace was a key protagonist, essentially mailing in the most important game of the season. His final stat line read four points, three turnovers and zero interest. 不幸地活塞的进攻在最不适合的时候瓦解，对Celtics的第六战第四节只拿下13分而 Sheed还是要角，那场比赛只有4分，还有3个失误，他对比赛的兴趣是零。 In the wake of a third straight conference finals defeat, team president Joe Dumars set about shaking things up. First he basically announced to the world that his entire roster was available in a trade. Then he fired Flip Saunders, in spite of the fact that by any reasonable standard Saunders had been wildly successful. I should also point out the Pistons weren't favored to beat Boston, so it seemed a little disingenuous to fire him for losing. 连三年在分区冠军战败阵後Dumars向全世界宣布整队都可以交易，也把用一般标准来 看非常成功的老桑解雇，也因为活塞本来就不被看好，因此解雇老桑似乎是有点虚伪。 Nonetheless, few deny that a shake-up might do the Pistons some good. In addition to the rumored friction between Wallace and Saunders, there was the little matter of it being their third straight conference finals defeat to a team that was visibly hungrier. To replace Saunders, Dumars opted for Michael Curry, a former Piston who had an outstanding reputation in the locker room as a player, but who possesses no head coaching experience. He'll have to ramp up to speed quickly with a team for which the only goal is winning a championship, so he'll be under a microscope. Of course, Dumars has never been shy about switching generals -- this is his fifth coach since he took over as general manager (including the coach he inherited), even though each of the previous three he hired won a minimum of 50 games per season and made it as far as the conference finals at least once. Dumars找了当球员时在休息室中享有声誉的MC当教头。没当过教头的MC也得加快脚步 ，毕竟球队的唯一目标就是总冠军。 Biggest Strength: Depth 最大优势：深度 The Pistons have an impressive four-man nucleus with Billups, Richard Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince and Wallace, but what made them so powerful last season is that they lost little when the subs checked in. The second unit was so effective that no Piston played more than 33.6 minutes per game last season. Instead the subs played large stretches in the second and fourth quarters and played them extremely well. 活塞四人核心非常优秀，但上季活塞打那麽好的原因是板凳上场时他们也输得很少。 二军非常有效率也因此上季没有球员上场超过33.6分钟。二军在第二节和第四节上场 时间非常多，打得也非常好。 One former sub who may be graduating to starter this year is Maxiell, who seems set to take over Antonio McDyess' starting frontcourt spot after outperforming the veteran as a reserve a year ago. But Maxiell may find himself having to hold off the challenge of another rising young star, as Johnson is a huge talent coming into his own as a player and needs only to curb a mammoth foul rate to become a more regular contributor. McDyess, of course, isn't chopped liver himself, and if you're a Kwame Brown believer, that takes Detroit to five-deep in quality bigs. Maxy上季的表现超越McDyess，Amir也很有天份，他只需要减少犯规比率就能拥有 稳定的贡献。如果你相信Kwame的话，活塞会有五个够格的大个。 It's a similar story on the perimeter. Herrmann has been under the radar the past two years but has played quite well whenever he has been given the opportunity, while Arron Afflalo emerged as a potential defensive stopper as a rookie last season and likely will get more time this year. 如果有上场时间Herrmann的表现会很好，Afflalo这个菜鸟上季也是个有潜力防守 专家，本季上场时间很有可能会增加。 And then there's Rodney Stuckey. The 6-5 combo guard appears to have all the makings of a future star, with a sketchy outside shot being the only potential hurdle. The plan is for him to get 30 minutes a game backing up both backcourt slots this season, and his development could be one of the key factors for Dumars in deciding whether to deal Billups or Hamilton at the trade deadline. 未来明星Stuckey的外线是他唯一的问题。计画有30分钟上场时间的他本季的表现 将是Dumars决定交易枪蜥或Rip的关键因素。 Biggest Weakness: Star power 最大劣势：明星球员 You can point to a lot of things when looking at Detroit's failures in the conference finals: Rasheed Wallace's consecutive Game 6 mail-ins, the playoff struggles of Billups, the Pistons' seeming lack of urgency. 你可以说活塞上季的失败是Sheed第六战的神游，枪蜥季後赛不佳的表现或活塞没有 危机意识。 But the thing that stands out more than the others are these three names: Dwyane Wade, LeBron James and Kevin Garnett. These are the three players who have outgunned Detroit the past three seasons, respectively, and it points out the one obvious weakness Detroit has in a playoff series against other top contenders. Whereas these teams had a superstar player who could go 45 minutes, making their teams far more potent in the playoffs than in the regular season, Detroit lacked the kind of freakish talent who could put them over the top in those situations. No matter whom they face in a conference finals, you can pretty much guarantee that the best player on the court won't be a Piston. 但最重要的是下面这三个名字：Wade、LBJ和Garnett。不管活塞在分区冠军战面对谁， 你都可以说场上的最佳球员绝不是活塞这方。 In that respect, what's amazing about Detroit isn't that they've continually fallen just short, but that they've even been in the hunt. Make a list of the league's 10 best players and I guarantee there won't be a Piston on it, but they've been to six straight conference finals and won a championship with the Billups-Hamilton-Prince nucleus. 但活塞只是差一点点而已。联盟最佳十位球员名单中一定没有活塞人，但他们连续六次 打进分区冠军战，赢得一座总冠军只靠小王子、枪蜥和Rip这些核心。 It's likely to be the Pistons' undoing again, whether it's LeBron, KG or some other burgeoning talent who knocks them out, and there's really not much they can do about it -- except changing the roster. That's exactly why Dumars has been fishing around for deals that might put such a player onto his own roster. 活塞很有可能再次失败，不管是LBJ，KG或其他快速成长的明星球员让他们出局，而 他们能做的也不多，除非改变阵容。这也是Dumars在这暑假钓鱼的原因。 Outlook 展望 If we're going to use history as our teacher, then the default prediction for Detroit should be a win total in the mid-50s and a demoralizing loss in the conference finals. To stray from that projection after what has happened the past three seasons, we would need some very compelling evidence. 如果用历史当我们的老师，那活塞应该赢五十几场然後在分区冠军战败阵。为了不用 过去三季做预测，我们需要更令人信服的证据。 Certainly there are reasons to think Detroit might be better -- even while nurturing a contending nucleus, Dumars has brought along a second wave of talent in the likes of Maxiell, Stuckey and Johnson that has eased the burden on his veteran starters. The youngsters also provide some insurance in case somebody on the Pistons ever gets injured -- their track record of health the past half-decade has been completely ridiculous, but now they're so deep that injuries would have to pile up en masse to materially affect them. 有一些原因可以相信活塞会更好，包括Maxy、Stuckey、Amir已可以减轻先发的负担 ，他们也是万一先发某人受伤时的保险。 Standing against those positives are the facts that the Pistons who will play the crunch-time minutes are getting fairly long in the tooth -- Hamilton is 30, Billups is 32, and Wallace and McDyess are 34 -- and that first-year coach Curry may have to endure some growing pains this season. 活塞的先发愈来愈老或许是Curry本季得面对的问题。 Add it all up and we're right back where we started. Yes, we must take Detroit seriously as a title contender. But much like last in the past three seasons, it appears that the Pistons are really, really good … and there's one other Eastern team that's better. 加总来看我们必须视活塞为冠军竞争队。但就像过去三年一样，活塞非常非常好，但 东区还有另一队更好。 Prediction: 54-28, 1st in Central Division, 2nd in Eastern Conference --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 163.25.121.174 ※ 编辑: pennymarcus 来自: 163.25.121.174 (10/01 14:23)