http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/playoffs2007/insider/columns/ story?columnist=thorpe_david&page=ScoutingCavaliersPistons-Game4 Scouts Inc. update: Cavaliers vs. Pistons, Game 4 Thorpe By David Thorpe Scouts Inc. (Archive) Insider Updated: May 29, 2007 * Comment * Email * Print ‧ Cavs-Pistons series scouting report | Series page In skill sports, much like any competitive event, there are many variables that help dictate outcomes. But all things being equal, no variable impacts who wins and loses more than confidence. Confidence is a powerful ally, but it is fleeting, too. Most fans would be very surprised to learn just how often their favorite player looks the same on the outside, but inside his head he is questioning himself, his team, the situation, or his coach. One of the best ways to get a team feeling good about itself is to play a game in front of a loud and partisan home crowd. Game 3 was a great example of this, as Detroit and Cleveland played similarly to their previous games, in terms of strategy and execution, yet each team shot better than the first two games (remember, Detroit feeds off quieting a crowd more than any other team). Detroit's improvement was slight, while Cleveland jumped from 40 percent in Game 2 to 49 percent in Game 3. Each game has showed that the team that shot the ball better pulled out the win. Still, when the game was tight in the fourth quarter, statistics do not matter -- getting buckets does. And LeBron James, enjoying his first breakout game in the series, closed in dramatic fashion. Feeling good from his overall game coupled with a solid shooting performance heading into the fourth quarter, James looked like he wanted to take, and make, the biggest shots. After failing in Detroit, James and the Cavs made the big shots late, thanks in large part to the confidence he and they earned early in the game. Cleveland got James in gear by looking to push on misses in the first quarter. James got a dunk off his own defensive rebound and push by using an influence screen from a hustling Zydrunas Ilgauskas, who ran hard rim to rim and occupied the middle of the paint. Bigs must run to maximize transition opportunities, whether they catch a pass or not. Then James dunked off a pass from Sasha Pavlovic, again benefitting from a hustling big, this time Drew Gooden. After he made one of two from the line following a foul used to prevent another fast break basket, James had five points and the Cavs were up 7-0 after three minutes. That Detroit outscored Cleveland by one over the last 45 minutes is relevant -- in a series this tight any run can become the difference between winning and losing. Detroit put a halt on Cleveland's running game by getting their players back on defense, forfeiting most offensive rebounding opportunties. This will be an important area to watch in Game 4 -- if Detroit attacks the glass then the Cavs should go up-tempo again. Even though a more methodical Cleveland offense was not nearly as successful as the running one was, they still were able to get the ball to James in crunch time, and he delivered. Detroit, however, is in a deeper quandry; if Cleveland is scoring more points then they must match that production. They are a team that prides itself on a strong offensive balance, with no individual player taking a huge majority of the shots. But that balance is severely mitigated when one or two of their scorers shoot very poorly from the field. In Detroit, it was Tayshaun Prince who couldn't hit a shot (well, he hit one in 2 games), but this time it was Richard Hamilton and Chauncey Billups who shot a combined 6-for-22 (with seven turnovers to five assists). And though they shoot better when they look for transition buckets, they are loathe to go up-tempo in Cleveland. Their inside game was clicking, with Chris Webber and Rasheed Wallace scoring 31 points on 19 shots, so it would not surprise me to see a more concerted effort to get them involved early and continue to feed them all game, forgetting about being so "balanced." Doing so may also help to lower the number of fast breaks Cleveland can lauch as well, since defending the paint will occupy the bigs. Both coaches recognized the importance of increasing their scoring production, at the risk of giving up more good shots on defense. So they played Flip Murray and Daniel Gibson, who provided a clear lift with their shooting and driving. Gibson played a big role in the fourth quarter since Larry Hughes was out with an injury. But since Hughes is supposed to miss Game 4, will Cavaliers coach Mike Brown go with veteran Eric Snow more for defense or give the rookie Gibson the majority of minutes to help his team score? Hughes is known for the chaos he creates on defense, and Pavlovic is an underrated and solid defender; together they have quieted Billups and Hamilton. So losing Hughes prompts the biggest question of the series: "Can Cleveland win without its second-leading scorer?" Common sense would suggest that a seasoned and mega-talented pro like Billups would dominate Gibson, throw off the balanced Cavs defense, and get the Pistons' offense back in gear. But common sense has not ruled this series. Shooting has. And since the Cavs seemed to find their confidence while Detroit is still searching, I expect Cleveland to make more shots and tie up this series. PREDICTION: Cleveland wins Game 4 -- 电影,因为有你在我身边而精采... 咖啡,因为有你而香醇... 生活,因为你而有了色彩... 生命,因为有了你而完整... --

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