※ [本文转录自 MLB 看板] 作者: jerrt (上班都在逛PTT) 看板: MLB 标题: [翻译]Five question: Philadelphia Phillies 时间: Thu Apr 1 11:28:40 2010 1. Was 2009 a fluke season for Cole Hamels? 对於Cole Hamels来说 2009年是否只是单纯运气不佳的一季？ Yes, mostly due to their batting averages on balls in play (BABIP). Pitchers have very little control over their BABIP, so it normally hovers around .300. In 2008, when Cole Hamels was brilliant, his BABIP was .270. Last year, it was .325. An increase of .055 is a lot! 答案是肯定的,原因则是在於他的BABIP. 投手们并无法去掌控自己的BABIP, 所以大部分投手大概都落在3成左右.在2008球季,Cole Hamels的BABIP是2成7, 去年,这个数字则大幅成长到3成25. There were 581 balls put in play against Hamels in '09. If hitters batted .300 instead of .325, they get 174 hits instead of 189. 64.5 percent of the hits Hamels allowed were singles, 21.5 percent were doubles, 2.5 percent were triples, and 11.5 percent were home runs. If we assume the same distribution of hits, then Hamels would have given up nine fewer singles, three fewer doubles, one fewer triple, and two fewer home runs. In other words, opposing hitters' SLG would drop from .440 to .406 and their OBP would drop from .315 to .296. 去年,Hamels总共有581个投球被击在场内.若他的BABIP为0.3而非0.325, 则他的被安打数会从189降为174. 在Hamels被击出的安打里面,有64.5%为一垒安打, 21.5%为二垒安打, 2.5%为三垒安打, 11.5%为全垒打. 假如我们套用这个数据在刚才的假设上, 则Hamels会被少敲出9只一垒安打,3只二垒安打,1只三垒安打和2只全垒打. 换句话说,去年对手的SLG会从0.44降为0.406, 而OBP会从0.315降为0.296. Overall, Hamels was the same pitcher last year as he was in 2008. His FIP was 3.72 in both years; xFIP only had him 0.06 worse in '09; tRA thought he was .014 better last year. 总体来说,Hamels去年的表现和2008年一样. FIP都是3.72, xFIP仅小幅的衰退了0.06, 而tRA则是进步了0.014. His strikeouts and walks stayed at the same level. So did his batted ball splits. 他的三振与保送的数据维持平盘. 被击球的分布也差不多(平飞,高飞,滚地). And, finally, Hamels was actually more consistent with his release points. 事实上,他投球时的放球点甚至越来越稳定. If I was a betting man, I would bet that Hamels has a bounce-back 2010 season. 假如我是雨刷,我赌他在2010球季一定会触底反弹. 2. Why didn't GM Ruben Amaro keep Cliff Lee? 为什麽GM Ruben Amaro不留住Cliff Lee? Fans salivated at the thought of having Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Hamels in the same starting rotation. Opposing managers cringed at the thought of facing all three consecutively in the playoffs. Yes, it would have been nice to have all three wearing a Phillies uniform in 2010. 曾经,费城的球迷对有着Doc, 小李飞刀和黑魔使的先发轮值留口水. 他队GM则对於需要在季後赛面对连续三名强投的想法感到不安. 当然,若上述三位投手在2010球季都能穿上Phillies的球衣的确是美事一件. Jimmy Rollins: Drafted in the 2nd round in 1996 Jimmy Rollins: 1996年第2轮 Ryan Madson: Drafted in the 9th round in 1998 Ryan Madson: 1998年第9轮 Chase Utley: Drafted 15th overall in 2000 Chase Utley: 2000年第15顺位 Ryan Howard: Drafted in the 5th round in 2001 猴儿: 2001年第5轮 Cole Hamels: Drafted 17th overall in 2002 黑魔使: 2002年第17顺位 J.A. Happ: Drafted in the 3rd round in 2004 黑皮: 2004年第3轮 The Phillies organization has drafted remarkably well and built around a core of home-grown players. Partially resulting from the Cliff Lee trade last year, and partially due to having lower draft picks due to their recent success, the Phillies' minor league system has fallen into the bottom-third of the league according to most rankings. Emptying what's left in the farm for one year of Lee would have been devastating to the Phillies beyond 2012. 在过去几年,费城人在选秀方面取的惊人的成功并以这些球员为核心打造了一支具有竞争力的队伍. 但在近年出色的战绩以及小李飞刀的交易案背後, 费成人的农场已经在最近的排名落到全联盟倒数第三. 为了多留小李飞刀一年而将农场一扫而空的作法将会对2012年後的费城人具有破坏性的影响. Essentially swapping Lee for Halladay allowed the Phillies to keep some prospects that will be able to fill in as the current group of Phillies dwindles while also signing one of the best pitchers in baseball to a multi-year contract extension. 基本上将小李飞刀换成Doc对於费城来说不仅可以保住为数不多的农场新秀, 以使的球队的未来不致於大受影响,更可以用复数年合约绑住目前大联盟中最好的投手. Phillies fans will curse Amaro if the Phillies fail to win the World Series in 2010, but they will be thanking him by 2013. His job is not just to put a competitive team on the field this year, but to ensure that he will be able to do the same in '11, and '12, and '13, and so on. 假如费城人再度於2010的WS中锻羽而归,费城球迷的炮口将会指向GM Amaro(编案：我也是!!) 但到了2013年,这些球迷将会感谢Amaro当初的决定. 因为他的工作不仅仅只是在2010年打造一支具有竞争力的球队, 他也要能够确保费城人在2011, 12, 13甚至未来都能够复制一模一样的成绩. 3.How good has the running game been, and will it continue to improve? 费城人已经很快了,而他们能够更快嘛？ With first base coach Davey Lopes, the Phillies' base runners have been historically great. In 2007, Lopes' first year on the job, the Phillies stole bases at an 88 percent success rate, setting an all-time Major League record. In '08 and '09, their success rates were 84 percent and 81 percent, respectively. From 2007-09, the Phillies were the most efficient baseball team in terms of stealing bases. 在一垒指导教练Davey Lopes的带领下, 费城人的球员在跑垒方面有着显着的好成绩. 在2007年, 也就是Lopes走马上任的第一年, 费城人的盗垒成功率是至今仍为大联盟记录的88%. 而在2008及2009年,他们的盗垒成功率分别为84%和81%. 从2007年到2009年, 费城是全大联盟盗垒最有效率的队伍. The team has also become more aggressive under Lopes. In the three years prior to his hiring, 2004-06, the Phillies were just in the top half to top one-third in the majors in terms of base-stealing aggressiveness(attempts to steal). With Lopes, from '07-09, the Phillies have been in the top one-fourth to one-sixth. 这只球队在Lopes的指导下越来越有侵略性. 在他之前(2004-06), 费城在尝试盗垒的数据上顶多只能排到全联盟的前半或是前三分之一. 而从07年开始一直到今天,费城已经在这项数据上排到全联盟的前四分之一. While it is obvious that Lopes has made his runners attempt to steal second more often, he has also done the same at third base. Phillies runners have become more aggressive trying to steal third base. Lopes不仅仅只是让他的球员们多尝试盗二垒而已. 在他的要求下,现在费城的球员更义无反顾的往三垒冲. It isn't just blind aggression, either. From 2007-09, the Phillies successfully stole third base 85 percent, 89 percent, and 72 percent respectively, well above the 75 percent break-even point in two out of the three years. 但盗三垒对於他们来说却不是个盲目的行为. 从2007到09, 费城人盗三垒的成功率分别为85%, 89%和72%. (下面这句小弟不才实在翻不出来..) In 2010, the same group of runners -- Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, Chase Utley, and Jayson Werth -- will be back and they have replaced a poor base runner in Pedro Feliz with a good base runner in Placido Polanco. Expect them to once again be the best in the game at swiping bags with efficiency. 在2010年, 原班人马将会卷土重来,这次,除了Jimmy Rollins, 飞翔的夏威夷人,忍者阿特力以及Edge之外, 原本跑垒能力不算甚佳的Pedro Feliz也换成了Polanco. 球迷们可以期待他们在速度方面仍然可以有全联盟的最佳表现. 4.Will the Phillies be able to keep Jayson Werth away from free agency? 费城人会不会留下Jayson Werth? A lot depends on what happens with Carl Crawford, as he is the only other soon-to-be free agent outfielder in Werth's stratosphere. The four-year, $66 million contract Jason Bay received from the New York Mets will also help determine how much Werth will make in free agency. 关於这个问题有很大的部份取决於Carl Crawford的动向, 他是目前唯一一个与Werth同等级且即将成为自由球员的外野手. 而Jason Bay在今年与梅子签下4年66M的合约也会成为Werth在自由球员市场价格的指标. According to FanGraphs, Crawford has been worth 11.3 WAR over the past three seasons. Bay is tallied at 6.4 WAR over the same period of time, while Werth comes in at 13.6. It stands to reason that Werth could ask for more than Bay got from the Mets. 根据FanGraphs的统计,在过去三年,Crawford的WAR是11.3. 同时期贝爷的WAR是6.4. 而Werth的WAR为13.6. 因此,我们可以合理的推测Werth会要求一只比Bay更肥的合约. As for the Phillies' ability to retain him, it seems unlikely. The team already has nearly $133 million committed to 17 players in 2011 with the arbitration cases of Kyle Kendrick, Ben Francisco, and Greg Dobbs (who likely will not receive an offer) to handle. The Phillies front office imposed a $140 million payroll cap this season and it is unlikely that the Phillies will raise it up to the $160-170 million range that would be necessary to afford Werth. 光就这点而言,费城似乎没有能力留下Werth. 光是在2011年,球队就必须花将近133M在阵中17位球员的身上, 其中还包含Kyle Kendrick, Ben Francisco 以及Greg Dobbs(虽然费城不太可能会给他offer)的arbitration. 费城高层暗示今年球队的预算将会落在140M附近 而不太可能会为了要留下Werth而将预算提高到160-170M. If Werth truly wants to continue his career in Philadelphia, he could agree to backload his contract. For instance, a three-year deal worth $50 million could pay him $12 million in the first year and $19 million in the final two years. 假如Werth想要继续待在费城, 他也许会同意球队延迟付款. 举例来说,签下一纸三年50M的合约, 第1年Werth可以拿到12M,而在第2,第3年他各可以领到19M. I have suggested (here and here) that the Phillies should trade Ryan Howard in an effort to clear payroll, which would give them the ability to re-sign Werth. However, this is unlikely to occur given Howard's star power, his popularity in Philadelphia, and a rather small market for expensive, power-hitting, one-dimensional first basemen. 我曾经建议过费城人应该要想办法把猴儿给交易出去以清出薪资空间, 如此一来,他们将有能力可以留下Werth(编按:...别闹了..Orz) 但是,考量猴儿的吸票能力,在费城当地受欢迎的程度 以及相对来说更昂贵的强力一垒手市场,这个提议不太可能会被采纳. 5.Did the Phillies upgrade at third base by signing Placido Polanco? 签下Polanco = 三垒升级 ? Comparing Polanco to Pedro Feliz, the answer is simple: yes. Feliz compiled 2.7 WAR in 2008 and '09 in Philadelphia, while Polanco accrued 6.1 WAR in the same period of time. 单纯就Polanco与Feliz做比较,答案很明显的是肯定的. 在2008与09年, Feliz的WAR是2.7, 同时期Polanco的WAR为6.1. However, there is concern because Polanco will be playing at third base, a position he hasn't played regularly since 2002 and hasn't played at all since '05. At second base, he was one of the best defensive players in baseball. Chase Utley was the only second baseman to outrank Polanco in UZR/150 last year, 11.3 to 11.0. 尽管如此,仍有人担心Polanco在新的球季中将要担任三垒的守备任务. 从02年开始他便不是个专职的三垒手. 甚至从05年後他便在也没有守过这个位置. 他曾是联盟最佳的二垒防守球员之一. 在去年,Polanco在UZR/150的数据上只输给了一个人:忍者阿特力, 11.3对11.0. (Polanco表示: ......) Polanco has been working with the Phillies coaching staff and logging significant innings during spring training in an effort to re-learn the position. However, if he simply provides league-average offense and defense at third base, he will have earned his $5.2 million salary, part of the below-market, three-year $18 million contract the Phillies awarded him in December. Polanco在春训期间与教练配合努力的重新学习如何守备三垒. 但只要能够在三垒提供联盟平均等级的攻击与守备能力, 他就算对得起在去年12月与费城签下的这纸3年18M的合约了. (这个部分小弟不太会翻,还有请版上前辈指教) While it is certainly true that Amaro could have slightly loosened his grip on his wallet and signed Chone Figgins, he felt that Polanco was a perfect fit in the lineup in the No. 2 spot behind Jimmy Rollins. Polanco rarely walks just as he rarely strikes out, but Charlie Manuel likes his propensity for contact combined with Rollins' speed. Most sabermetrics-using Phillies fans prefer Shane Victorino to lead off rather than Rollins, but that is neither here nor there. 尽管Amaro有能力在提高一点点预算的情况下签下Chone Figgins, 他觉得Polanco会是个绝佳的第二棒人选. 就像他不常被三振一般,Polanco也不常等到四坏球, 但Charlie Manual喜欢Polanco的contact能力加上Rollins的速度的这个构想. 大部份了解棒球统计的球迷都喜欢以飞翔的夏威夷人更胜於用Rollins担任开路先锋, 不过这不太可能会成真. BONUS: Should Victorino lead-off instead of Rollins? 顺道一提：是不是该让Victorino取代Rollins打第一棒？ We'll simply use the lineup analysis tool from Baseball Musings. I plugged in the PECOTA projections for each of the Phillies, first using the lineup that will be used in 2010 and then using the one most of us stat-nerd Phillies fans want. Note: for pitchers, I simply used last year's aggregate OBP/SLG by Phillies pitchers. 数据会说话,以下便是用Lineup analysis tool算出来的成绩比较. 2010 Phillies开季先发名单: Rollins-Polanco-Utley-Howard-Werth-Ibanez-Victorino-Ruiz-Pitcher 每场平均得分数: 4.940 全年(162场)得分数: 800.3 2010 Phillies建议先发名单: Victorino-Polanco-Utley-Howard-Werth-Ibanez-Victorino-Ruiz-Pitcher 每场平均得分数: 4.971 全年(162场)得分数: 805.3 2010 Phillies最佳先发名单: Utley-Werth-Polanco-Howard-Victorino-Rollins-Ibanez-Pitcher-Ruiz 每场平均得分数: 5.185 全年(162场)得分数: 840 The difference between the two lineups is about five runs over a 162-game season, or roughly about half a win. The difference between the optimal lineup is 35-40 runs, or roughly 3.5-4 wins. Of course, the "optimal lineup" will never be used by anyone other than Tony LaRussa, and only if he's found his flask. 开季先发与建议先发之间的差距大约是半场左右的胜场数. 而开季先发与最佳先发间的差距则来到了3.5-4场. 当然,没有总教练会采用最佳先发名单,除了喝醉的Tony LaRussa以外. P.S. 小弟初次尝试翻译,若有疏漏还烦请版上前辈包含~~ --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 12.229.87.62 --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 12.229.87.62